Over 22,824,945 Americans Seek Full Time Jobs–Unemployment Rate Declines?–Obama Math: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics–The First Casualty of Progressive Radical Socialists–The Truth!–The Games People Play–Do You Believe In Magic?

Posted on February 5, 2010. Filed under: Blogroll, Communications, Demographics, Economics, Education, Employment, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, government, government spending, Investments, Law, liberty, Life, Links, Monetary Policy, People, Philosophy, Politics, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Regulations, Resources, Taxes, Video, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , |

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

~Attributed to British  Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli

 

“Games People Play” – Joe South – 1969

“…Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences?  The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting. …”

“…The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. …”

http://www.shadowstats.com/

 

Zentner Has Doubts About January U.S. Unemployment Rate: Video

 

Robert Reich: Expect 10% Unemployment Until 2011

Solis Says Jobs Market Shows `Cautious Confidence’

Shugg Says U.S. Employment Outlook Remains `Bleak’

The Unemployment Game Show: Are You *Really* Unemployed?

 

Unemployment Rate Primer

Pimco’s Crescenzi Discusses U.S. Jobs Report, Bonds

Maki Sees `Substantial Decline’ in U.S. Jobless Rate: Video

California Joblessness Reaches 70-Year High

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9  
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0  
2008 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.4  
2009 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.0 10.0  
2010 9.7                      

Most of the big media were trumpeting the unexpected decline in the official unemployment  rate measured by U-3 from 10.0% to 9.7.% and the real unumployment rate measured by  U-6  from17.5 % to 16.5%.

 

Most forecasters who follow employment were expecting the rate to remain the same or slightly increase by .1 or .2% for both U-3 and U6. Very few were forecasting a decline.

What is almost never mentioned is the number of unemployed Americans this represented.

For the official unemployment rate of 9.7% the number of unemployed Amercans is 14,837,000.

For the real unemployment rate of 16.5% the number of unemployed Americans is 22,824,045. 

This number is calculated by multiplying the 16.5% unemployment rate by the total civilian labor force of 138,333,000.

It appears that someone in the Department of Labor and Bureau of Labor Statistics has been making political adjustments to the above statistics to show improvement in the labor market.

One place is to look at closely is the labor participation rate.

While the labor participation rate fluctuates from month to month, it is usually above 66% of the civilian labor force.

When an economy enters a recession, one expects labor force participation rates to slightly decline.

However, the labor force participation rate has declined from 66% at the strart of the recession in December 2007 to 64.7% or over 1.3%.

 

Series Id:           LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.1 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.8 66.9 67.0  
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7  
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3  
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9  
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9  
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0  
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4  
2007 66.4 66.3 66.3 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0  
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 66.0 66.2 66.1 66.0 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.8 65.8  
2009 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.8 65.8 65.7 65.4 65.4 65.1 65.0 64.9 64.6  
2010 64.7                      

When you multiply 1.3%  by the civilian labor force of  153,170,00 the result is 1,991,210.

This means nearly 2 million American are no longer participating the civilian labor force and would represents about a 1.2% increase in unemployment.

This is lie.

 

Series Id:           LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 142267(1) 142456 142434 142751 142388 142591 142278 142514 142518 142622 142962 143248  
2001 143800 143701 143924 143569 143318 143357 143654 143284 143989 144086 144240 144305  
2002 143883 144653 144481 144725 144938 144808 144803 145009 145552 145314 145041 145066  
2003 145937(1) 146100 146022 146474 146500 147056 146485 146445 146530 146716 147000 146729  
2004 146842(1) 146709 146944 146850 147065 147460 147692 147564 147415 147793 148162 148059  
2005 148029(1) 148364 148391 148926 149261 149238 149432 149779 149954 150001 150065 150030  
2006 150201(1) 150629 150839 150915 151085 151368 151383 151729 151650 152020 152360 152698  
2007 153117(1) 152941 153093 152531 152717 153045 153039 152781 153393 153158 153767 153869  
2008 154048(1) 153600 153966 153936 154420 154327 154410 154696 154590 154849 154524 154587  
2009 154140(1) 154401 154164 154718 154956 154759 154351 154426 153927 153854 153720 153059  
2010 153170(1)                        
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Assuming just half of this is the political adjustment this would represent an increase of about .6% in both the official U-3 and real U-6 unemployment rates.

The Federal Government is apparently fiddling with the statistics to get the unemployment rates and number of unemployed down.

Such political adjustments like the nonsense  of saying that the stimulus bill created or saved 2,000,000 jobs is unbelievable not to mention totally unverifiable.

Glenn Beck- February 3, 2010 (Part 1/5)

Glenn Beck- February 3, 2010 (Part 2/5)

Axelrod, Gibbs Jarrett saved or created jobs

Obama administration LYING again about the jobs “saved or created” by the stimulas package

 

Obama switches to new math when it comes to counting jobs created or saved

I stand by my forecast that the official unemployment rate measured by U-3 will remain in double digits throughout 2010.

Only in 2011 will you see a real decline in unemployment rates as measured by both U-3 and U-6.

President Obama has a much deserved reputation of being a habitual liar.

Those who follow President Obama speeches and comments know this to be true.

Virtually all of the talk radio hosts and many blogs have repeatedly pointed out President Obama’s many lies and broken promises.

The American people are slowly and surely catching on to Obama’s broken promises and lies.

Liar Liar Pants on Fire

 

The American people do not like being lied to.

Nobody does.

The American people no longer believe or trust what President Obama says and many are tuning him out.

Nearly 30,000,000 not 22 million Americans are seeking a full time job.

Most of these 30 million Americans will not be voting for the lying and cheating progressive radical socialists in the next three elections.

Lovin Spoonful Do You Believe In Magic

Background Articles and Videos

 824,000 Jobs To Disappear February 5, 2010–Black Friday–The Obama Depression Even Worse!

 

11/13/2007- John Williams On The Glenn Beck Show

John Williams ShadowStats.com “Go long Scotch!”

 

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