The Planted Assumption of The National Intelligence Estimate On Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Assumes It Conclusion–CYA From Partisan Authors!

Posted on December 6, 2007. Filed under: Blogroll, Economics, Links, Politics, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Science, Technology, Video, War |

Natanz Nuclear Facility from above

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/03/asia/cia.php

Must be expecting some USAF and Navy bombers, fighters and cruise missiles:

Natanz Nuclear Facility on the ground

 The conclusion of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program is that Iran halted the program in 2003.

If Iran did halt their nuclear weapons program and if it remains on hold, the reason is due to fear of the United States Armed Forces  attacking Iran after victory in Iraq and not diplomatic pressure.

Well who wrote the report and what assumptions were made:

Thomas Fingar

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_personnel.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Fingar

Vann H. Van Diepen

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_personnel.html

William Brill

 Not a Time to be Diplomatic

“If you wondered whether the U.S. intelligence community could possibly perform even more dismally than it has of late with respect to various aspects of the terrorist and proliferation threat, the answer is now in. Even worse is in certain prospect if Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte goes forward with his reported offer to Ambassador Kenneth Brill to become director of the just-announced National Counter-Proliferation Center (NCPC). As his honorific suggests, Ambassador Brill is not an intelligence professional. Neither has he had any operational experience that would qualify him for a position that will, if it is to be successful, require close coordination with and perhaps direction of U.S. military and other assets capable of performing intercepts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. …”“…The last thing the United States needs at the pinnacle of the intelligence apparatus assigned to countering what is widely agreed to be the most dangerous threat of our time — the scourge and spread of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists and their state-sponsors — is someone whose past track record suggests that he misperceives the threat, opposes the use of effective techniques to counter it and is constitutionally disposed to accommodate rather than defeat the proliferators.Kenneth Brill is the wrong man for the wrong job. President Bush has made a point of expressing his confidence in Ambassador Negroponte and given him substantial latitude in personnel and substantive matters. If the DNI does not recognize the folly of this appointment, however, it is incumbent upon the president to appoint as NCPC director someone with the intelligence and/or operational skills — to say nothing of the judgment and strategic vision — necessary to perform it competently.”http://www.nationalreview.com/gaffney/gaffney200507011147.asp

 http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/iran_nukes/2007/12/04/54359.html

Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

“…This NIE does not assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons. Rather, it

examines the intelligence to assess Iran’s capability and intent (or lack thereof) to acquire

nuclear weapons, taking full account of Iran’s dual-use uranium fuel cycle and those

nuclear activities that are at least partly civil in nature. …” 

Page 4 of the NIE:

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf

The authors assume that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear program and the text is in bold.

Stop right there.

Excuse me but assuming your conclusions does not cut it and is very misleading.

Nice try in covering your asses (CYA), but I for one can read despite being educated in government schools.

I lost confidence in United States intelligence community after its biggest failure on September 11, 2001.

I have almost no confidence in the following:

2007 National Intelligence Estimate

“…We judge with moderate confidence that the

earliest possible date Iran would be technically

capable of producing enough highly enriched

uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but that

this is very unlikely. We judge with moderate

confidence Iran probably would be technically

capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon

sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. (INR

judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve this

capability before 2013 because of foreseeable

technical and programmatic problems.)  

We judge with moderate confidence that the

earliest possible date Iran would be technically

capable of producing enough highly enriched

uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but that

this is very unlikely….”

Page 9 of NIE

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf

“…Moderate confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible

but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of

confidence. …”

Page 5 of NIE

Dr. Fingar got it right in July of this year. Now he is changing his assessment.

Global Security Assessment for the House Armed Services Committee July 11, 2007  

Dr. Thomas Fingar, Deputy Director for Analysis

“

IRAN ASSESSED AS DETERMINED TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons—despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons. …”

Page 10 and 11

http://www.odni.gov/testimonies/20070711_testimony.pdf

A full and complete explanation to the American people is in order from the authors of the new National Intelligence Estimate.

Background Articles and Videos

Israel challenges report on nukes

 “…Israel still insists that there is as little as two years to stop Iran from going nuclear, while the new U.S. assessment finds that unlikely to happen before 2010 to 2015. …”

http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071205/FOREIGN/112050069/1001

 Israel Unconvinced Iran Has Dropped Nuclear Program

“…“It is apparently true that in 2003 Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a certain period of time,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Israeli Army Radio. “But in our estimation, since then it is apparently continuing with its program to produce a nuclear weapon.”

“…While the Americans think Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons program while continuing to enrich uranium as rapidly as it can, Israel thinks that Iran has resumed its nuclear weapons program with the clear aim of building a nuclear bomb.

Israel must act in accordance with its intelligence estimates, Mr. Barak suggested. “It is our responsibility to ensure that the right steps are taken against the Iranian regime. As is well known, words don’t stop missiles.”

Assessments may differ, Mr. Barak said, “but we cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence report from the other side of the earth, even if it is from our greatest friend. …”

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/world/middleeast/05webreact.html?em&ex=1196917200&en=3c76117a54b5f349&ei=5087%0A

 Keep Up The Pressure

“…First, the good news. To go nuclear, you need three things: a) the raw material, b) the ability to turn the raw material into a weapon and c) the missiles with which to deliver the weapon. Regarding a and c, Iran is proceeding with alacrity and determination on uranium enrichment (with 2,000 to 3,000 centrifuges running) and on the development and testing of long-range missiles. It is the intermediate step–weaponizing the uranium into a bomb–that the intelligence estimate tells us has been suspended.

Now the caveats. First, weaponization is the most opaque of the three elements. Iran has never declared it or admitted it. Accurate information about it would be hardest to come by. Second, the logic is odd. We now believe weaponization was suspended in fall 2003, at the same time uranium enrichment was suspended. However, when uranium enrichment was resumed a few months after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s accession to power, the weaponization program (we are now told) was not.

This does not make a lot of sense. Uranium enrichment is more public and therefore more likely to bring sanctions–which, of course, it did. Why reactivate that and not the covert weaponization program–inherently a less open provocation? And why invest enormous resources on the centrifuges for enrichment and on the missiles for delivery if you’re not going to eventually weaponize? …”

http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1692061,00.html

No Joy in FOXville Now That the Mighty NIE Is Out 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62te8okvIEw  

O’Reilly spins NIE revelation, protects Bush

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-w5QjAR_agY&feature=related

John Bolton discusses the NIE on O’Reilly

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbKcQiexMFM&feature=related

 Bush Addresses Iran’s Nuclear Activities

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTHo0sbTbYM&feature=user

NIE REPORT UNDERMINES BUSH CALL FOR MILITARY ACTION ON IRAN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uITKCOERMFg 

FOX News “Democrat” Powers Call NIE On Iran “Unbelievable”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfF7L1qTarc

John Bolton slams NIE report on Iran 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndJ80exWxDA  

John Bolton on Iran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TnfkmzXUBM&feature=related

US Intel on Iran Contradicts Bush

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlijPd99I90 

 Glenn Beck – The Iran situation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Na-YCnYx9u0

Iran and US on Collision Course Over Nukes – VOA Story

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3lo08jHtew&feature=related

 Situation Room – Iran War – Gardiner

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wmce6KmFh6o&feature=related 

Iran Attack

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XD8YrU7QP_M&feature=related 

 Anti-Bush, Ex-State Department Bureaucrats Sabotaged the Iran NIE

  “…The three main authors of this report are former State Department officials with previous reputations that should lead one to doubt their conclusions.  All three are ex-bureaucrats who, as is generally true of State Department types, favor endless rounds of negotiation and ‘diplomacy’ and oppose confrontation. These three officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, have ‘reputations as hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials.’  ‘They are Tom Fingar, formerly of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research; Vann Van Diepen, the National Intelligence Officer for WMD; and Kenneth Brill, the former U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’ Tom Fingar was a State Department employee who was an expert on China and Germany — he has no notable experience, according to his bio in the Middle East and its geopolitics. Vann Van Diepen is also a career State Department bureaucrat, who, according to the New York Sun, is one of the State Department bureaucrats who want ‘revenge’ for having their views regarding Iran ignored by the Bush Administration. He is now seeking to further his own agenda. …” 

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_120507/content/01125107.guest.html

The suspect provenance of the NIE report

“The Wall Street Journal editorial that ran this morning  echoes and expands upon suspicions first articulated by the New York Sun that the National Intelligence Estimate was cooked up by bureaucrats eager to embarrass George Bush and transform US policy towards Iran.

A dynamic is at work that will serve Iranian interests by throwing a wrench in plans to expand sanctions against it for its nuclear program; it also will serve to veto any plans to attack its nuclear facilities.

The three main authors of this report are former State Department officials with previous reputations that should lead one to doubt their conclusions. All three are ex-bureaucrats who, as is generally true of State Department types, favor endless rounds of negotiation and “diplomacy” and oppose confrontation. These three officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, have “reputations as hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials”. … 

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/12/the_suspect_provenance_of_the.html

 The Key Question about the NIE’s Key Judgment

“The judgment that’s stirring up all the controversy — and it’s a real shocker — comes in the very first sentence: We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.   The judgment is astonishing for two reasons.  First, it flies in the face of virtually everything we know – or thought we knew — about the Iranian regime, its capabilities and its intentions.  Second, If the new Key Judgment is correct it means that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program fully two years before publication of the National Intelligence Council’s 2005 Estimate on this same subject, which concluded “with high confidence” that Iran “currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons….”

http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/12/the_key_question_about_the_nie.html 

NIE: other things going on

 “Here is a my quick reflection on the top news story of the day: the intelligence community’s assessment on Iran’s nuclear program. 

1.  The intelligence community was unaware that Al Qaeda was about to strike on 9/11. So wrong on that one.

2. They did, however, think Iraq was in the process of completing a nuclear program. They appear to have been wrong on that one.

3. They thought Iran was on the verge of a nuclear weapons program in 2005. Now the intelligence community tells us they were wrong on that one too.  But now they are right, presumably, when they tell us that Iran gave up its nuclear weapons program in 2003.  I don’t buy it. 
 

I think other things are going on, namely:

1. The intelligence community is  bitter for being blamed for its failure to anticipate 9/11, and for being  blamed for bad intelligence that led to  the Iraq war.

2. So the safe route is to downplay the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. That surely diminishes the likelihood off an American military action against Iran. And the intelligence community can not then be blamed for another war, if the intelligence that led to the decision to go to war was wrong. And if they are wrong this time (and were right in 2005), and there is a nuclear weapons program? Well, it is Israel that most likely suffers, not the US  directly (in the short run). …” 

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/12/nie_other_things_going_on.html

Iran’s nuclear ambitions on hold, U.S. agencies conclude

  “U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that international pressure has compelled the Islamic Republic to back away from its pursuit of the bomb.

The new findings represent a retreat from a fundamental U.S. assumption about one of its main adversaries, and an admission that a central component of previous intelligence estimates on Tehran’s nuclear program was wrong. But the report makes it clear that Iran could decide at any point to resume its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.

The assessment, which represents the consensus of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the National Security Agency, is expected to have major implications for the ongoing debate over whether to confront Iran militarily or through diplomatic means, an issue that has been a source of friction within the Bush administration and with some members of the international community. …”  

  http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran4dec04,0,2695315.story?coll=la-home-center

U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work   

A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb.  

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/world/middleeast/03cnd-iran.html?hp

 U.S. report says Iran halted nuclear weapons program in 2003

“A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb.

The conclusions are likely to be major factor in the tense international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its nuclear energy program, and they come in the middle of a U.S. presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been discussed.

The new assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs. …”  

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/03/asia/cia.php

Bush Bound for Israel Amid Differences on Iran 

“…First reported in the Israeli press yesterday, The New York Sun confirmed from American officials that the visit is in the offing. It is scheduled for January. On the heels of a new American intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear weapons program that could scuttle a third U.N. Security Council resolution against the Islamic Republic, the visit will be a powerful symbol to Tehran, whose leadership has pledged to destroy Israel.

Mr. Bush yesterday signaled that his press to end Iran’s enrichment of uranium would continue despite the new National Intelligence Estimate that considers the Iranian uranium enrichment at Natanz to be separate from its nuclear energy program.

“I still feel strongly that Iran is a danger,” Mr. Bush said. “Nothing has changed in this NIE that says, ‘Okay, why don’t we just stop worrying about it.’ Quite the contrary. I think the NIE makes it clear that Iran needs to be taken seriously as a threat to peace. My opinion hasn’t changed. …”

http://www.nysun.com/article/67493

 NIE Credibility Crumbling – HAD OPPOSITE CONCLUSION 120 DAYS AGO

“Ever heard of dirty political tricks?

So can someone please explain something to me? The NIE’s three main authors, I’ll call them Larry, Moe, and Curly…are all former State Department officials with previous reputations as hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials. They are Tom Fingar, formerly of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research; Vann Van Diepen, the National Intelligence Officer for WMD; and Kenneth Brill, the former U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency. …”

http://patdollard.com/2007/12/05/is-suspect-intel-the-source-for-the-nie-report/

Nuclear Program of Iran

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran

 Iran, Nuclear Weapons, and the NIE

“…if Iran’s program was indeed halted due to international pressure and scrutiny, now is the time to ramp up the pressure on Iran to abandon its fuel-cycle activities. After all, Iran today has 3,000 centrifuges operational, and continues to accelerate this effort despite two rounds of U.N. sanctions. At this pace, many experts estimate Tehran can produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in a short while. Coupled with reports that Iran acquired a nuclear weapons design from the AQ Khan network, we have much to be concerned about with Iran’s “peaceful civilian” program. Yet in the wake of the NIE’s release, international resolve is likely to weaken (led by China and Russia) giving Iran’s Revolutionary Guard the perfect opportunity to re-start their weapons program. …”

http://fredfile.fred08.com/blog/2007/iran-nuclear-weapons-and-the-nie/

Just 18% Believe Iran has Stopped Nuclear Weapons Development Program

“Just 18% of American voters believe that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 66% disagree and say Iran has not stopped its nuclear weapons program. Twenty-one percent (21%) of men believe Iran has stopped the weapons development along with 16% of women …”

“…Among conservatives, just 8% believe Iran has stopped and 81% disagree. …”

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/general_current_events/just_18_believe_iran_has_stopped_nuclear_weapons_development_program