The Obama Depression Has Arrived: 15,000,000 to 25,000,000 Unemployed Americans–Stimulus Package and Bailouts A Failure–400,000 Leave Labor Force In July!

Posted on August 6, 2009. Filed under: Blogroll, Climate, Communications, Crime, Economics, Education, Employment, Fiscal Policy, government spending, Immigration, Law, liberty, Life, Links, media, Monetary Policy, People, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Regulations, Resources, Taxes, Video, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Revised and Updated

whistle

“Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

~Mark Twain

 

All Tables from Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

 

Is unemployment up or down?

“…The July unemployment came out of the Labor Department on Friday, and showed unemployment was down. The White House and Obama fans cheered that the stimulus was working.

Two days before, two other studies had a gloomier report. ADP, the payroll processing giant, announced that there were 371,000 fewer jobs in July than in June. ISM, the Institute for Supply Management, showed the services market slowing.

So, two industry watchers say things are sucking wind, but the Obama Administration says their stimulus is working. When Glenn Beck and Bob Basso scream that we’re being lied to, it’s easy to discount them. Obama’s chief spokesman lamented that we’re not “civil” in our tone. …”

 

In-Depth Look – US Unemployment Rate – Bloomberg

In-Depth Look – Jobs Report Preview – Bloomberg

In-Depth Look – Jobs Report Preview – Bloomberg

Hours Worked & Wages – Bloomberg

Economic Expectations – Unemployment Rate May Reach 15% – Bloomberg

pt 1/2 Marc Faber the real unenmployment in the US 17%

 

pt 2/2 Marc Faber the real unenmployment in the US 17%

 

2009-10 Total DECLINE for US Jim ROGERS 1

2009-10 Total DECLINE for US Jim ROGERS 2

Recovery Has Begun?

Unemployment Rate–U-3

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0  
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8  
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9  
2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
2009 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4            
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Employed
 
Series Id:           LNS12000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 133027 132856 132947 132955 133311 133378 133414 133591 133707 133993 134309 134523  
2000 136559(1) 136598 136701 137270 136630 136940 136531 136662 136893 137088 137322 137614  
2001 137778 137612 137783 137299 137092 136873 137071 136241 136846 136392 136238 136047  
2002 135701 136438 136177 136126 136539 136415 136413 136705 137302 137008 136521 136426  
2003 137417(1) 137482 137434 137633 137544 137790 137474 137549 137609 137984 138424 138411  
2004 138472(1) 138542 138453 138680 138852 139174 139556 139573 139487 139732 140231 140125  
2005 140246(1) 140377 140626 141243 141600 141711 142029 142434 142407 142551 142555 142783  
2006 143129(1) 143424 143713 143763 144092 144358 144247 144644 144806 145289 145587 145989  
2007 145983(1) 145992 146267 145647 145915 146057 145972 145732 146203 145867 146665 146294  
2008 146317(1) 146075 146023 146257 145974 145738 145596 145273 145029 144657 144144 143338  
2009 142099(1) 141748 140887 141007 140570 140196 140041            
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

While most reports stated that the official US unemployment rate (U-3) hit 9.4%, in July, few reported that this represents nearly 15,000,000 unemployed Americans.

This represents a .1% decline in the unemployment rate from 9.5% in June to 9.4% in July or roughly 150,000 less Americans unemployed.

But something very fishy is going on when you examine the total civilian labor force  level numbers.

Civilian Labor Force

Series Id:           LNS11000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Leve5
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 139003 138967 138730 138959 139107 139329 139439 139430 139622 139771 140025 140177  
2000 142267(1) 142456 142434 142751 142388 142591 142278 142514 142518 142622 142962 143248  
2001 143800 143701 143924 143569 143318 143357 143654 143284 143989 144086 144240 144305  
2002 143883 144653 144481 144725 144938 144808 144803 145009 145552 145314 145041 145066  
2003 145937(1) 146100 146022 146474 146500 147056 146485 146445 146530 146716 147000 146729  
2004 146842(1) 146709 146944 146850 147065 147460 147692 147564 147415 147793 148162 148059  
2005 148005(1) 148349 148366 148926 149273 149262 149445 149794 149977 150007 150095 150002  
2006 150148(1) 150600 150793 150906 151120 151398 151414 151762 151680 152027 152425 152677  
2007 153012(1) 152879 153004 152522 152759 153085 153101 152855 153424 153162 153877 153836  
2008 153873(1) 153498 153843 153932 154510 154400 154506 154823 154621 154878 154620 154447  
2009 153716(1) 154214 154048 154731 155081 154926 154504          

The total civilian labor force level dropped by over 400,000  from 154,926,000 in June to 154,504,000 in July.

Keep in mind that a .1 change in the unemployment rate represents approximately 155,000 people or .1 of the total civilian labor force.

While the civilian labor force number will fluctuate from month to month, the general trend is upwards if a nation’s labor force population is growing.

Further, the total civilian labor force will also fluctuate as the labor participation rate increases or decreases.

For the United States in recent years the labor pariticpation rate has usually fluctuated between 66% to 67%.

One would expect the labor force participation rate to fall as it becomes more difficult to find a job in a recession.

The labor force participation rate for 2009 has been in the 65.5% to 65.8% range with the current civilian labor force participation rate at it lowest 65.5%.

Civilian Labor Force Participtation Rate

Series Id:           LNS11300000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 67.2 67.2 67.0 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.1 67.1  
2000 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.1 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.8 66.9 67.0  
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7  
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3  
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9  
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9  
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0  
2006 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4  
2007 66.3 66.2 66.2 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.1 66.0  
2008 66.1 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.8 65.7  
2009 65.5 65.6 65.5 65.8 65.9 65.7 65.5            

 Ask most economists about when can you expect a decline in the unemployment rate, they will quickly point out that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator and it usually requires about a 2.5% growth rate in Gross Domestic Product to absorb new entrants into the labor market and productivity gains before you can see any significant decline in the unemployment rates:

NEWSHOUR | Bernanke, On The Record, Part 2 | PBS

The United States economy will not be growing at a 2.5% annual rate or higher until the second quarter of 2010 at the earlest. 

This is the second month in a row when the official unemployment rate measured by U-3 was lower than most economic forecasts that were expecting a 9.6% to 9.8% rate for June and July.

Please keep in mind that like weather and climate forecasts or predictions,  economic forecasts are constantly changing. 

Some are suspecting that the unemployment rate numbers may not only be seasonally adjusted but also politically adjusted to minimize the bad news about the lack of job creation.

While I seriously doubt this for now, most economists will be examining closely the numbers to make sure that the unemployment rate number is still an honest indicator of what is happening in the civilian labor markets.

Even fewer reports highlighted the fact that the real unemployment rate measured by U-6 is actually closer to 16.5% with 25,000,000 Americans looking for a full time job. 

The U-6 measure of unemployment declined slightly in July to 16.3% .

Total Unemployed, Plus All Marginaly Attached Workers Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons

Series Id:           LNS13327709
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status:  Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over
Percent/rates:       Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1  
2000 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9  
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6  
2002 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8  
2003 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8  
2004 9.9 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.2  
2005 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.5  
2006 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.0 7.9  
2007 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.7  
2008 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 13.5  
2009 13.9 14.8 15.6 15.8 16.4 16.5 16.3            

  

1933 was the worse year of the Great Depression when the unemployment rate hit 24.9%. 

Roughly 13,000,000 Americans were looking for a full time job.

Today there are more Americans looking for work than in 1933.

The Obama Depression has arrived and is getting worse.

The unemployment rate usually lags in a recovery and is not expected to significantly decline until the second quarter of 2010 at the earlest and could peak at over 13%.

Both the bailouts and stimulus packages have been failures that are only prolonging the recession now the Obama Depression.

Instead of front-loading the government spending to “prime the pump”,  the Obama administration and the Democratic majority in Congress back-loaded the spending so that more than 75% will not be spent until 2010 and 2011.

This was a serious mistake.

I oppose a stimulus package of government spending to create job.

Instead what was and is need is an economic policy that would stimulate business investment and in turn consumer savings and not government spending.

The reason is simple nearly 100% of all new job creation comes from small and medium size business and not large businesses nor Federal or state governments.

However, if you are going to have a government spending stimulus package, front-load the spending with at least 50% of the spending in the first year and the remainder in the second year.

This should have some quick if temporary results in terms of job creation in 2009 and the first half of 2010.

The major mistake made by the Obama administration and Congress was to back-load the spending for political reasons.

They forgot about economic lags and their variability.

Less than 25% of the stimulus package will have been spent in 2009.

The American people are giving President Obama a grade of F for failure in economic policy. 

Joe Biden: We ‘Misread the Economy’

Administration “Misread” Economy – Biden – Bloomberg

This recession/depression will as a result exceed two years in duration.

The US economy is at least four years away from having an unemployment rate under 4% and approaching full employment.

President Reagan was right, the government is the problem.

Free market capitalism did not fail.

Federal government intervention failed and is continuing to fail as the economic recession/depression is prolonged.

Both consumers and businesses have lost confidence with the economic policies of President Obama and the progressive radical socialist Democratic Party.

Until this is reversed businesses will not be investing and consumers will continue to cut back on their consumption spending.

While President Obama may have faith in the American people, the vast majority of the American people no longer trust a President that lies and misleads them about tax increases, health care reform, and fiscal responsibility.

Both the proposed cap and trade energy tax and the massive expansion of mandatory government health insurance entitlement programs are job destroyers, economy wreckers and fiscally irresponsible resulting in deficits in the two trillion dollar range–2,000,000,000,000.

Peter Schiff – Cap and Trade Bill Is A Giant Tax on Productivity

Glenn Beck: America Knows Something Isn’t Right

The Reality Of Socialized Medicine – UK Parliament Member Daniel Hannan

Stop The Spending and Deficits

US Federal Government Deficits

federal_spending

Stop Spending Our Future – The Crisis

defcits

The American people are paying a high price for having elected an inexperienced economic illiterate and radical socialist as President of the United States.

The second American revolution has begun and is growing as more and more people lose their jobs, homes, savings and retirement plans due to  irresponsible Federal Government fiscal and Fedreal Reserve monetary  economic policies.

Obama Says “pointed in the Right Direction”

Only a economic illiterate and liar would say the US economy is headed in the right direction when in July over 400,000 Americans left the labor force.

Between 15,000,000 to 30,000,000 illegal aliens continue to work and live in the United States at jobs American did less than ten years ago.

The time has come to put American citizens first and enforce immigration laws and require all employers to E-Verify the legal status of their employers to work in the United States.

Lou Dobbs – 2-2-9 – Obama Admin wants to kill E-Verify

The American people want comprehensive immigration law enforcement and not comprehensive immigration reform–a code word for amnesty for illegal alliens.

This would quickly reduce the unemployment rate as American citizens replace illegal aliens in full time paying jobs.

Unfortunately, two Presidents of the United States have broken their oaths of office and refused to stop and turn back the invasion of the United States by illegal aliens.

I have changed my mind, these unemployment numbers were not only seasonally adjusted but politically corrected to play with President Obama’s message or  lie that we are pointed in the right direction.

The books or unemployment statistics were “cooked” most likely for the months of June and July.

Assume that the civilian labor force is  approximately 155,000,000 (the May 2009 number was 155,041,000) and the number employed is approximately 140,000,000 (the July 2009 number was  140,041,000).

Then the number of unemployed would be approximately 15,000,000.

Divide 15,000,000 by 155,000,000 gives you an U-3 official unemployment rate of 9.7% for July 2009 and not 9.4% as was widely reported.

I suspect the correct seasonally adjusted number for July was either 9.7% or 9.8% and not 9.4%.

This would mean the the unemployment rate for July increased from 9.5% in June to 9.7%.

This assumes the June number of 9.5% is correct.

I strongly suspect that the official  U-3 unemployment rate for June was actually 9.6% instead of the published rate of 9.5%  and the official  U-3 unemployment rate for July was actually 9.8% instead of the published rate of 9.4%.

The Obama administration has been cooking the books by lowering the unemployment rate by claiming Americans are leaving the labor force.

Most Americans that are unemployed are actively looking for jobs and not leaving the labor force.

The official unemployment rate should be at or above 10% in September 2009.

If it is not, somebody is politically correcting the economic statistics.

Sounds just like President Obama.

Give me a break Mr. President.

Time to blow the whistle on the corruption of economic statistics by President Obama and the progressive radical socialists of the Democratic Party.

whistle

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

~Benjamin Disraeli, Prime Minister of Great Britain

 

 Background Articles and Videos

Unemployment Rate Actually Near 14%:

 Updated–16.4% July 2009

 

 

 

“…The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment and unemployment (of those over 15 years of age) using two different labor force surveys[32] conducted by the United States Census Bureau (within the United States Department of Commerce) and/or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (within the United States Department of Labor) that gather employment statistics monthly. The Current Population Survey (CPS), or “Household Survey”, conducts a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. This Survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.[33] The data are also used to calculate 5 alternate measures of unemployment as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions noted as U1 through U6:[34]

U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4: U3 + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other “marginally attached workers”, or “loosely attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.
Note: “Marginally attached workers” are added to the total labor force for unemployment rate calculation for U4, U5, and U6. The BLS revised the CPS in 1994 and among the changes the measure representing the official unemployment rate was renamed U3 instead of U5.[35]

…”

Year Unemployment (% labor force)

1933   24.9
1934   21.7
1935   20.1
1936   16.9
1937   14.3
1938   19.0
1939   17.2
1940   14.6
1941      9.9
1942     4.7
1943     1.9
1944     1.2
1945     1.9

source: Historical Statistics US (1976) series D-86

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

Unemployment 1930’s vs Today

http://www.scribd.com/doc/13282170/Unemployment-1930s-vs-Today

U3 and U6 Unemployment during the Great Depression

U3U5UnemploymentGreatDepression

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/u3-and-u6-unemployment-during-great-depression

 

So What’s the Real Unemployment Rate?

 

“…Hmm. In June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the civilian labor force was 154,926,000 people.

In July, 796,000 of those were taken out of their definition of the workforce, and thus their unemployment calculations for this month, because they have stopped looking for work “because they believe no jobs are available for them.” Ten percent of the June workforce would be 15.4 million, 1 percent would be 1.5 million, and so 796,000 is roughly one half of one percent.

In other words, BLS took .5 percent of what you and I would consider unemployed and took them out of their total. And with that, unemployment went down one tenth of one percent.

Of course, if you take the July number of unemployed, 14.5 million, and add that 796,000 of discouraged workers, you get a total of 15,296,000.

In a work force of July’s number of 154,504,000, that’s an unemployment rate of 9.9 percent.

In a work for of June’s number of 154,926,000, that’s an unemployment rate of 9.8 percent. …”

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODUyZGMyNTExYzNlNTUyNzA1ZmIwMzc3MmMxNzEzYWM=

 

 

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72 Responses to “The Obama Depression Has Arrived: 15,000,000 to 25,000,000 Unemployed Americans–Stimulus Package and Bailouts A Failure–400,000 Leave Labor Force In July!”

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As much as you want to label this the Obama Depression, it is the Bush Debacle Aftermath Depression and you know it and so do most smart Americans. Get over your lies and trying to pin this on Obama. Pin it on yourself for having these beliefs in the first place. Fascist capitalist greed, plain and simple.

Obama sold out to get power a long time ago.

How do you spot a Fascist, when they talk of a government and business partnership.

Sounds just like Obama.

Profits create investment and jobs.

Losses create business failure and unemployment.

Greed or profits are good.


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