John B. Taylor — First Principles: Five Keys To Restoring America’s Prosperity — Videos

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john-taylor-economisatFirstPrinciplesjohn taylor

Uncommon Knowledge with John B. Taylor

5 Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity: John B. Taylor

Steine Lecture Series with John B. Taylor

getting off track

Crisis Management with John Taylor

global_financial_warrios

John B Taylor – Policy Options to Restore Prosperity – 26 June 2014

John Taylor: Economic Freedom, Wealth and the Alleviation of Poverty

John Taylor Receives the Bradley Prize — 2010

John B. Taylor, the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, is perhaps best known for formulating an equation on setting interest rates that has become known as the Taylor rule. The economist has also, however, been recognized throughout his career for his contributions to teaching, research, and public service, in addition to policy making. On June 16, 2010, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation awarded one of its four 2010 Bradley Prizes to Taylor. The Bradley Prizes, awarded annually, are given to prominent scholars and engaged citizens for outstanding achievement in their fields of endeavor.

John B. Taylor

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For other people named John Taylor, see John Taylor (disambiguation).
John B. Taylor
JohnBTaylor.jpg

John B. Taylor
Born December 8, 1946(age 68)
Yonkers, New York
Nationality United States
Institution Stanford University
Field Monetary economics
School or tradition
New Keynesian economics
Alma mater Shady Side Academy
Stanford University
Princeton University
Influences Milton Friedman
John Maynard Keynes
Paul Volcker
E. Philip Howrey
Contributions Taylor rule
Information at IDEAS / RePEc

John Brian Taylor (born December 8, 1946) is the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.[1]

Born in Yonkers, New York, he graduated from Shady Side Academy[2] and earned his A.B. from Princeton University in 1968 and Ph.D. from Stanford in 1973, both ineconomics. He taught at Columbia University from 1973–1980 and the Woodrow Wilson School and Economics Department of Princeton University from 1980–1984 before returning to Stanford. He has received several teaching prizes and teaches Stanford’s introductory economics course as well as Ph.D. courses in monetary economics.[3]

In research published in 1979 and 1980 he developed a model of price and wage setting—called the staggered contract model—which served as an underpinning of a new class of empirical models with rational expectations and sticky prices—sometimes called new Keynesian models.[4] [5] In a 1993 paper he proposed the Taylor rule,[6]intended as a recommendation about how nominal interest rates should be determined, which then became a rough summary of how central banks actually do set them. He has been active in public policy, serving as the Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during the first term of the George W. Bush Administration. His book Global Financial Warriors chronicles this period.[7] He was a member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors during the George H. W. Bush Administration and Senior Economist at the Council of Economic Advisors during the Ford and Carter Administrations.

In 2012 he was included in the 50 Most Influential list of Bloomberg Markets Magazine. Thomson Reuters lists Taylor among the ‘citation laureates’ who are likely future winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics.[8]

Academic contributions

Taylor’s research—including the staggered contract model, the Taylor rule, and the construction of a policy tradeoff (Taylor) curve[9] employing empirical rational expectations models[10]–has had a major impact on economic theory and policy.[11] Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that Taylor’s “influence on monetary theory and policy has been profound,”[12] and Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen has noted that Taylor’s work “has affected the way policymakers and economists analyze the economy and approach monetary policy.”[13]

Taylor contributed to the development of mathematical methods for solving macroeconomic models under the assumption of rational expectations, including in a 1975Journal of Political Economy paper, in which he showed how gradual learning could be incorporated in models with rational expectations; a 1979 Econometrica paper in which he presented one of the first econometric models with overlapping price setting and rational expectations, which he later expanded into a large multicountry model in a 1993 book Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy; and a 1982 Econometrica paper,[14] in which he developed with Ray Fair the first algorithm to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models which became part of popular solution programs such as Dynare and EViews.[15]

In 1977, Taylor and Edmund Phelps, simultaneously with Stanley Fischer, showed that monetary policy is useful for stabilizing the economy if prices or wages are sticky, even when all workers and firms have rational expectations.[16] This demonstrated that some of the earlier insights of Keynesian economics remained true under rational expectations. This was important because Thomas Sargent and Neil Wallace had argued that rational expectations would make macroeconomic policy useless for stabilization;[17] the results of Taylor, Phelps, and Fischer showed that Sargent and Wallace’s crucial assumption was not rational expectations, but perfectly flexible prices.[18]

Taylor then developed the staggered contract model of overlapping wage and price setting, which became one of the building blocks of the New Keynesian macroeconomics that rebuilt much of the traditional macromodel on rational expectations microfoundations.[19] [20]

Taylor’s research on monetary policy rules traces back to his undergraduate studies at Princeton.[21][22] He went on in the 1970s and 1980s to explore what types of monetary policy rules would most effectively reduce the social costs of inflation and business cycle fluctuations: should central banks try to control the money supply, the price level, or the interest rate; and should these instruments react to changes in output, unemployment, asset prices, or inflation rates? He showed[23] that there was a tradeoff—later called the Taylor curve[24]—between the volatility of inflation and that of output. Taylor’s 1993 paper in the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy proposed that a simple and effective central bank policy would manipulate short-term interest rates, raising rates to cool the economy whenever inflation or output growth becomes excessive, and lowering rates when either one falls too low. Taylor’s interest rate equation has come to be known as the Taylor rule, and it is now widely accepted as an effective formula for monetary decision making.[25]

A key stipulation of the Taylor rule, sometimes called the Taylor principle,[26] is that the nominal interest rate should increase by more than one percentage point for each one-percent rise in inflation. Some empirical estimates indicate that many central banks today act approximately as the Taylor rule prescribes, but violated the Taylor principle during the inflationary spiral of the 1970s.[27]

Recent research

Taylor’s recent research has been on the financial crisis that began in 2007 and the world economic recession. He finds that the crisis was primarily caused by flawed macroeconomic policies from the U.S. government and other governments. Particularly, he focuses on the Federal Reserve which, under Alan Greenspan, a personal friend of Taylor, created “monetary excesses” in which interest rates were kept too low for too long, which then directly led to the housing boom in his opinion.[28] He also believes that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae spurred on the boom and that the crisis was misdiagnosed as a liquidity rather than a credit risk problem.[29] He wrote that, “government actions and interventions, not any inherent failure or instability of the private economy, caused, prolonged, and worsened the crisis.”[30]

Taylor’s research has also examined the impact of fiscal policy in the recent recession. In November 2008, writing for The Wall Street Journal opinion section, he recommended four measures to fight the economic downturn: (a) permanently keeping all income tax rates the same, (b) permanently creating a worker’s tax credit equal to 6.2 percent of wages up to $8,000, (c) incorporating “automatic stabilizers” as part of overall fiscal plans, and (d) enacting a short-term stimulus plan that also meets long term objectives against waste and inefficiency. He stated that merely temporary tax cuts would not serve as a good policy tool.[31]His research[32] with John Cogan, Tobias Cwik, and Volcker Wieland showed that the multiplier is much smaller in new Keynesian than in old Keynesian models, a result that was confirmed by researchers at central banks.[33] He evaluated the 2008 and 2009 stimulus packages and argued that they were not effective in stimulating the economy.[34]

In a June 2011 interview on Bloomberg Television, Taylor stressed the importance of long term fiscal reform that sets the U.S. federal budget on a path towards being balanced. He cautioned that the Fed should move away from quantitative easing measures and keep to a more static, stable monetary policy. He also criticized fellow economist Paul Krugman‘s advocacy of additional stimulus programs from Congress, which Taylor said will not help in the long run.[35] In his 2012 book First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity, he endeavors to explain why these reforms are part of a broader set of principles of economic freedom.

Selected publications

  • Taylor, John B. (1975), ‘Monetary Policy During a Transition to Rational Expectations.’ Journal of Political Economy 83 (5), pp. 1009–1021.
  • Phelps, Edmund S., and John B. Taylor (1977), ‘Stabilizing powers of monetary policy under rational expectations.’ Journal of Political Economy 85 (1), pp. 163–90.
  • Taylor, John B. (1979), ‘Staggered wage setting in a macro model’. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 69 (2), pp. 108–13. Reprinted in N.G. Mankiw and D. Romer, eds., (1991), New Keynesian Economics, MIT Press.
  • Taylor, John B. (1979), ‘Estimation and control of a macroeconomic model with rational expectations’. Econometrica 47 (5), pp. 1267–86.
  • Taylor, John B. (1986), ‘New econometric approaches to stabilization policy in stochastic models of macroeconomic fluctuations’. Ch. 34 of Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 3, Z. Griliches and M.D. Intriligator, eds. Elsevier Science Publishers.
  • Taylor, John B. (1993), ‘Discretion versus policy rules in practice’. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, pp. 195–214.
  • Taylor, John B. (1999), ‘An historical analysis of monetary policy rules’. Ch. 7 of John B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago Press. Paperback edition (2001): ISBN 0-226-79125-4.
  • Taylor, John B. (2007) Global Financial Warriors, WW Norton, N.Y.
  • Taylor, John B. (2007), “Housing and Monetary Policy,” in Jackson Hole Symposium on Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  • Taylor, John B. (2008), “The Financial Crisis and the Policy Response: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong,” Festschrift in Honor of David Dodge’s Contributions to Canadian Public Policy, Bank of Canada, Nov., pp. 1–18.
  • Taylor, John B. (2009), “Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged, and Worsened the Financial Crisis,” Hoover Institution Press. ISBN 0-8179-4971-2
  • Scott, Kenneth E., George P. Shultz, and John B. Taylor (2010), “Ending Government Bailouts as We Know Them,” Hoover Institution Press. ISBN 0-8179-1124-3
  • Taylor, John B. (2012), “First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity,” W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN 0-393-07339-4

See also

References

  1. Jump up^ “Hoover Institution Senior Fellow: Biography”. Hoover Institution. Retrieved 2011-10-27.
  2. Jump up^ Shady Side Academy list of notable alumni
  3. Jump up^ Curriculum vitae, John B. Taylorhttp://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/cv/TaylorCV-Jan-2012.pdf
  4. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (1979) “Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 69 (2), May, pp. 108–113, Reprinted in N. Gregory Mankiw and David Romer (Eds.) New Keynesian Economics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1991.
  5. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (1980) “Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts,” Journal of Political Economy, 88 (1), February, pp. 1–23.
  6. Jump up^ Taylor. John B. (1993) “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice,” Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, North-Holland, 39, pp. 195–214.
  7. Jump up^ Taylor, John B, (2007) Global Financial Warriors: The Untold Story of International Finance in the Post- 9/11 World, W.W. Norton.
  8. Jump up^ Thomson-Reuters list of ‘citation laureates’ in economics
  9. Jump up^ Taylor, John B, (1979) “Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations,” Econometrica, 47 (5), September, pp. 1267–1286. Reprinted in R.E. Lucas and T.J. Sargent (Eds.) Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, University of Minnesota Press, 1981
  10. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (1993) Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy: From Econometric Design to Practical Operation, W.W. Norton
  11. Jump up^ Ben Bernanke refers to the “three concepts named after John that are central to understanding our macroeconomic experience of the past three decades—the Taylor curve, the Taylor rule, and the Taylor principle.” in “Opening Remarks,” Conference on John Taylor’s Contributions to Monetary Theory and Policy
  12. Jump up^ Bernanke, Ben (2007), “Opening Remarks”, Remarks at the Conference on John Taylor’s Contributions to Monetary Theory and Policy.
  13. Jump up^ Yellen, Janet (2007), “Policymaker Roundtable”, Remarks at the Conference on John Taylor’s Contributions to Monetary Theory and Policy.
  14. Jump up^ Fair, Ray C. and John B. Taylor (1983) “Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models,” Econometrica, 51 (4), July, pp. 1169–1185
  15. Jump up^ Kenneth Judd, Felix Kubler, and Karl Schmedders “Computational Methods for Dynamic Equilibria with Heterogeneous Agents,” In Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Vol 3. Mathias Dewatripont, Lars Peter Hansen, Stephen J. Turnovsky, Cambridge University Press, 2003, p. 247, and “Eviews Users Guide II.”
  16. Jump up^ Phelps, Edmund and John B. Taylor (1977), “Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations”, Journal of Political Economy, 85 (1), February, pp. 163–190.
  17. Jump up^ Sargent, Thomas and Wallace, Neil (1975), “‘Rational’ Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule,” Journal of Political Economy 83 (2): 241–254.
  18. Jump up^ Blanchard, Olivier (2000), Macroeconomics, 2nd ed., Ch. 28, p. 543. Prentice Hall, ISBN 0-13-013306-X.
  19. Jump up^ . King, Robert G. and Alexander Wolman (1999), “What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices are Sticky?” in Taylor, John B. (1999), Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago Press
  20. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (1999). “Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics” in John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford (Eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, North-Holland, Elsevier, pp. 1009–1050.
  21. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (1968) “Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policies in a Model of Cyclical Growth,” (1968), Undergraduate Thesis, Princeton University, April
  22. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (1968). “Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policies in a Model of Endogenous Cyclical Growth”. Research Memorandum No. 104 (Econometric Research Program, Princeton University, October).
  23. Jump up^ Taylor, John B, (1979) “Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations,” Econometrica, 47 (5), September, pp. 1267–1286.
  24. Jump up^ Bernanke, Ben (2004), “The Great Moderation”, Remarks at the meeting of the Eastern Economic Association.
  25. Jump up^ A. Orphanides, Athanasios (2007), ‘Taylor rules‘, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007–18, Federal Reserve Board.
  26. Jump up^ Davig, Troy and Eric Leeper (2005) “Generalizing the Taylor Principle,” NBER Working Paper 11874.
  27. Jump up^ Clarida, Richard; Mark Gertler; and Jordi Galí (2000), “Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: theory and some evidence.”Quarterly Journal of Economics 115. pp. 147–180.
  28. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (2007), “Housing and Monetary Policy,” in Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, September, pp. 463–476.
  29. Jump up^ Taylor (2007), “Housing and Monetary Policy” in Taylor, John B. (2008), “The Financial Crisis and the Policy Response: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong” in Festschrift in Honour of David Dodge’s Contributions to Canadian Public Policy, Bank of Canada, November, pp. 1–18.
  30. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (2009), “How Government Created the Financial Crisis,” Wall Street Journal, Feb. 9, 2009, p. A19.
  31. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (November 25, 2008). “Why Permanent Tax Cuts Are the Best Stimulus”. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved June 30,2011.
  32. Jump up^ Cogan, John F., Tobias Cwik, John B Taylor and Volker Wieland (2010), “New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34 (3), March, pp. 281–295.
  33. Jump up^ Guenter Coenen, et al. (2012), “Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 4, No. 1, January, pp. 22–68.
  34. Jump up^ Taylor, John B. (2011), “An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s,” Journal of Economic Literature, 49 (3), September, pp. 686–702.
  35. Jump up^ “Taylor Says U.S. Needs `Sound’ Monetary, Fiscal Policies”.Bloomberg Television thru Washington Post. June 27, 2011. RetrievedJune 30, 2011.

External links

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Taylor

 

John B. Taylor

Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University
George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and Chair of Working Group on Economic Policy

Contact Information   One-Page Bio   Curriculum Vitae   Photo   Other Pictures

Blog Economics One EconomicsOne.com

Twitter @EconomicsOne

 

Recent Books

First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity, New Paperback Edition  (with new introduction), 2013, Hardcover or Kindle Edition, 2012

Bankruptcy Not Bailout: A Special Chapter 14, with Kenneth Scott (Eds.) Hoover Press, 2012, Hardcover on Amazon or Kindle version

Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, with L. Ohanian and I. Wright, (Eds.), Hoover Press, 2012, Hardcover on Amazon or  Kindle version 

Ending Government Bailouts as We Know Them with Kenneth Scott and George Shultz (Eds.) 2010, Hardcover or Kindle or Download Chapters in PDF Formats

The Road Ahead for the Fed with John Ciorciari (Eds.) 2009 Hardcover or Kindle or Download Chapters in PDF Formats

Getting Off Track  How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged, and Worsened the Financial Crisis Kindle edition ($2.40), February 2009.

GlobalFinancialWarriors.com The Untold Story of International Finance in the Post-9/11 World Paperback Edition, 2008

Principles of Economics, Macroeconomics, and Microeconomics: Seventh Edition introductory economics text, 2012 Kindle version

 

Interviews and Biographical

Game Changers Interview, MONEY Magazine, August 2012

Interview on Research on Policy and the Response to the Crisis, Region Focus, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, First Quarter 2012, pp,29-33.

Interview on Economic Policy, Citadel Conversation, June 2012

Fiscal Follies, Monetary Mischief, Barron’s Interview with Gene Epstein, April 2012

Interview on Teaching Economics with Simon Bowmaker, in The Heart of Teaching Economics: Lessons from Leading Minds, 2011

Bradley Prize Recipient 2010, YouTube of Award Ceremony at John F. Kennedy Center, Written version of acceptance remarks

One Economist’s Solution for Financial Reform and Government Policy and the Recovery, Interviews with Motley Fool, March 2010

The Quest for Rules, Interview in Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, March 2008

Adam Smith Award, National Association of Business Economics, September 2007

NZZ Profile on Monetary Policy, Translation, Neue Zurcher Zeitung, Zurich, September 2007

Back to the World of Ideas Article about returning to research and teaching after Washington, February 2007

Interview on Global Imbalances and Monetary Policy Rules, Special Report, Citigroup Global Economic and Market Analysis, 2006

Interview on Monetary Research and Policy, From The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, June 2006

Shorter Interview on Monetary Research and Policy, From Hoover Digest, Fall 2006, adapted from The Region

Profile on International Policy Making, From The Washington Diplomat, December 2005

Interview about Research in the 1990s, From Conversations with Leading Economists, 1999

Profile on Teaching, From Stanford Today, 1998

 

Books and Collections of Articles on Monetary Policy and International Finance

The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, Even Koenig, Robert Leeson, and George Kahn (Eds.), Stanford: Hoover Press, 2012

Contributions to Macroeconomics in Honor of John Taylor, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 55, Pages S1-S126, October 2008.

Dallas Fed Conference on “John Taylor’s Contributions to Monetary Theory and Policy,” October 2007

Policies in International Finance 2001-2005: Speeches and testimony given as Treasury Under Secretary with short background pieces, 2005

Monetary Policy Rules Home Page

Conference Recognizing 10th Anniversary of the Taylor Rule (Nov 2002) Conference Volume, Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 50, No. 5
Monetary Policy Rules, (Editor), University of Chicago Press, 1999

Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy also available on line  WW Norton

Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy, (with Robert Solow), MIT Press

Handbook of Macroeconomics, (Editor with Michael Woodford)

 

Recent Papers

 

Using Hybrid Macro-Econometric Models to Design and Evaluate Fiscal Consolidation Strategies , presented at AEA Annual Meetings, January 5, 2015

Inflation Targeting in Emerging Markets: the Global Experience, Keynote Address at the Conference on Fourteen Years of Inflation Targeting in South Africa and The Challenge of a Changing Mandate, South African Reserve Bank Conference Centre, Pretoria, South Africa, October 30, 2014

Introduction to Frameworks for Central Banking in the Next Century, with Michael Bordo, A Special Issue of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming

Foreword to Sovereign Debt Management , Rosa M. Lastra and Lee Buchheit (Eds,) Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 2014, pp. vii-ix

Re-Normalize, Don’t New-Normalize Monetary Policy, October 2014

The Federal Reserve in a Globalized World Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, September 19, 2014

Rapid Growth or Stagnation: An Economic Policy Choice, Journal of Policy Modeling, May/June 2014

The Role of Policy in the Great Recession and the Weak Recovery, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May 2014

Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A 10-Year Perspective, Prepared for the October 1, 2013 Brookings/Hoover Financial Crisis Conference, December 2013

International Monetary Policy Coordination: Past, Present and Furture, Prepared for the 12th BIS Conference, June 21, 2013

Simple Rules for Financial Stability, Dinner Keynote Address at the Financial Markets Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Stone Mountain, Georgia, April 9, 2013

Fiscal Consolidation Strategy: An Update for the Budget Reform Proposal of March 2013, with John F. Cogan, Volker Wieland, Maik Wolters, SIEPR Discussion Paper, 2013

Remarks on Monetary Policy Challenges, Bank of England Conference on “Challenges to Central Banks in the 21st Century” in Honor of Mervyn King, March 26, 2013

International Monetary Coordination and the Great Deviation, Journal of Policy Modeling, March 2013, Wkg Paper, presented at the AEA Annual Meetings, January 5, 2013

The Effectiveness of Central Bank Independence Versus Policy Rules, Business Economics, Vol 48, No 3, Wkg Paper, presented at AEA Annual Meetings, January 4, 2013

Monetary Policy During the Past 30 Years With Lessons for the Next 30 Years, Presented at Cato Institute’s 30th Annual Monetary Conference on Money, Markets and Government: The Next 30 Years, November 15, 2012

Questions about Recent Monetary Policy, Presented at the Centennial Celebration of Milton Friedman and the Power of Ideas, University of Chicago, November 9, 2012

Fiscal Consolidation Strategy, with John F. Cogan, Volker Wieland, and Maik Wolters, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 2013 (Sept 21, 2012 version posted)

Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn’t: A Tale of Two Eras, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, September 2012

Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Monetary Model Database with Volker Wieland, Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2012

Estimated Impact of the Federal Reserve’s  Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program with Johannes C. Stroebel, International Journal of Central Banking June 2012

Commentary on Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy, Discussion at BIS conference, June 2012

Why We Still Need To Read Hayek, The Hayek Prize Lecture (with introduction by Paul Gigot), May 31, 2012

A Comparison of Government Regulation of Risk  in the Financial Services and Nuclear Power Industries with F.A. Wolak, The Nuclear Enterprise, S. Drell and G. Shultz (Eds.) Hoover Press, Stanford, 2012

Towards an Exit Strategy: Discretion or Rules? Published in English and Italian with introduction by Alberto Mingardi and Andrea Battista, 2012, e-book on Kindle

Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation, (with Andrew Levin), in Michael Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides. (Eds.) The Great Inflation University of Chicago Press, 2012

What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package, (with John F. Cogan), in Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, Lee Ohanian, John B. Taylor, Ian Wright (Eds,) Hoover Press, Stanford, 2012

Swings in the Rules-Discretion Balance, In Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics, Roman Frydman and Edmunds Phelps, (eds.), Princeton University Press, 2012.

 

Less Recent Papers

1968-2011

 

Recent Congressional Testimony

Requirements for Policy Rules for the Fed, Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, July 10, 2014

After Unconventionnal Monetary Policy, Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, March 26, 2014

Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy, Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, February 11, 2014

Too Big to Fail, Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act and Bankruptcy Reform, Testimony Before The Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, May 15, 2013

A Steadier Course for Monetary Policy, Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, April 18, 2013

A Review of Recent Monetary Policy, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade Committee on Financial Services US House of Representatives, March 5, 2013

Government Regulatory Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, Testimony before the Committee on the Judiciary, September 20, 2012

Testimony before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Financial Services at the Hearing on “Improving the Federal Reserve System: Examining Legislation to Reform the Fed and Other Alternatives,” May 8, 2012

A Regulatory Moratorium as Part of a Comprehensive Economic Strategy, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Courts, Commercial and Administrative Law, Committee on the Judiciary, February 27, 2012

Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee at the Hearing on “Monetary Policy Going Forward: Why a Sound Dollar Boosts Growth and Employment,” March 27, 2012

The Need for a Comprehensive Economic Strategy, Testimony before the Committee on Finance Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth, U.S. Senate, September 13, 2011

An Assessment of the President’s Proposal to Stimulate the Economy and Create Jobs, Testimony Before the Committee on Oversight and Goverment Reform Subcommittee on Regulatory Affairs, Stimulus Oversight and Government Spending, U.S. House of Representatives, September 13, 2011

Why a Credible Budget Strategy Will Reduce Unemployment and Increase Economic Growth Testimony Before the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress of the U.S., June 21, 2011
Slides to Accompany Why a Credible Budget Strategy Will Reduce Unemployment and Increase Economic Growth Testimony, June 21, 2011

Evaluating the TARP, Senate Banking Committee Written Testimony, March 17, 2011

The 2009 Stimulus Package: Two Years Later, Testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Regulatory Affairs, February 16, 2011

Economic Growth and Job Creation: The Road Forward, Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, January 26, 2011

Assessing the Federal Policy Response to the Economic Crisis, Testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, September 22, 2010

Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives, July 1, 2010

An Exit Rule for Monetary Policy, Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, March 25, 2010

Response to Questions from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, November 2009

Testimony, Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law, U.S. House of Representatives, October 22, 2009

Monetary Policy and Systemic Risk Regulation, Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representative, July 9, 2009

Monetary Policy and the Recent Extraordinary Measures Taken by the Federal Reserve, Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Feb. 26, 2009

The State of the Economy and Principles for Fiscal Stimulus, Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate, Nov. 19, 2008

Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy, Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Feb. 26, 2008

 

Papers on the Long Boom and the Great Moderation

Monetary Policy and the Long Boom

Remarks on “Recent Changes in Trend and Cycle”

The Long Boom: Sosa, McGwire, and Greenspan (slides)

 

Op-Eds and Articles

A New Twist in Online Learning at Stanford, Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2014

The Fed’s Ad Hoc Departures from Rule-Based Monetary Policy Has Hurt the Economy, Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2014

How to Spark Another ‘Great Moderation’, Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2014

The Fed Needs to Return to Monetary Rules, Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2014

Obama and the IMF Are Unhappy With Congress? Good, Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2014

The Economic Hokum of ‘Secular Stagnation’, Wall Street Journal, January 1, 2014

Economic Failure Causes Political Polarization, Wall Street Journal, October 28, 2013

The Weak Recovery Explains Rising Inequality, Not Vice Versa, Wall Street Journal, September 9, 2013

Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door, Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2013

Please Be Sure to Share Your Thoughts, Mr Governor, Financial Times, July 2, 2013

How to Let Too-Big-To-Fail Banks Fail (with Kenneth E. Scott), Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2013

A Better Strategy for Faster Growth (with George P. Shultz, Gary S. Becker, Michael J. Boskin, John F. Cogan, Allan H. Meltzer), Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2013

How the House Budget Would Boost the Economy, Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2013

Sequester Impact Small, Says Stanford Professor: Chart, Bloomberg, March 1, 2013

Fed Policy Is a Drag on the Economy, Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2013

Raw Deal, A critique of Michael Grunwald’s review of the stimulus, Foreign Policy, November 2012

Intro to Romneynomics, Defining Ideas, October 29, 2012

The Romney Cure for Obama-Induced Economic Ills, Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2012

The Magnitude of the Mess We’re In (with George P. Shultz, Michael J. Boskin, John F. Cogan, Allan H. Meltzer), Wall Street Journal, September 17, 2012

The Hidden Costs of Monetary Easing (with Phil Gramm), Wall Street Journal,September 12, 2012

When Volcker Ruled, Wall Street Journal,September 8, 2012

The Road to Recovery, City Journal, Vol. 22, No. 3, Summer 2012

Monetary Policy and the Next Crisis, Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2012

Slowing Foreclosures Will Harm Housing Market, San Francisco Chronicle (with Doug Holtz-Eakin), July 2, 2012

Rules for America’s Road to Recovery, Wall Street Journal, June 1, 2012

The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed, Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2012

A Better Grecian Bailout, Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2012

Economics for the Long Run, Wall Street Journal, January 25, 2012

Less recent op-eds and articles

 

Videos of Interviews and Talks

Fed’s Policy ‘Disappointing’ CNBC Squawk Box, September 10, 2014

Revolutionizing Higher Education CNBC Squawk Box, September 10, 2014

Nice-Squared Bretton Woods Conference , September 2, 2014

Legislation to Reform the Federal Reserve on Its 100-year Anniversary Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, July 10, 2014

Time to Reform the Fed CNBC Squawk Box, July 10, 2014

Sudden Interest Rate Hike Could Shake Markets: Pro CNBC Squawk Pretrade, June 25, 2014

John Taylor’s Growth Outlook CNBC’s Street Signs, May 29, 2014

Fed policy Under Fire CNBC’s Santelli Exchange, April 30, 2014

Fed policy hasn’t worked well: Expert CNBC’s Santelli Exchange, March 21, 2014 (2:34)

Federal Reserve Announces Pull Back on Stimulus as Bernanke Nears End of Tenure PBS NewsHour, December 18, 2013 (12:37)

Interview with Rick Santelli on the Fed (after his auction report) CNBC’s Santelli Exchange, December 18, 2013 (3:41)

Debate with Alan Greenspan and John Taylor (1) The Kudlow Report, December 10, 2013 (4:27)

Debate with Alan Greenspan and John Taylor (2) The Kudlow Report, December 10, 2013 (4:23)

After 100 years, What’s Next for the Fed Chart Cast from Hoover Retreat, November 12, 2013 (26:25)

John Taylor Urges Fed Return to Predictable Policy, Bloomberg’s Market Makers November 1, 2013 (6:04)

Yellen to return to old Fed policies? Fox Business, November 1, 2013 (3:59)

A Climate Change in Economic Policy Speech at Dallas Fed, October 3, 2013 (12:54)

Summers out, Yellen in? CNBC’s Kudlow Report, September 17, 2013 (11:28)

Is Janet Yellen the likely pick for Fed? Fox Business, September 16, 2013 (6:20)

The Debt Limit Showdown CNBC’s Rise Above, August 27, 2013 (7:22)

Fed Should Be Deliberative on Tapering, Taylor Says Bloomberg’s Street Smart , August 23, 2013 (7:57)

The 5 Principles to Restoring the U.S. Economy Fox Business , August 22, 2013 (5:56)

Will We See the Fed Begin to Taper in September? Bloomberg TV, Bottom Line, July 31, 2013 (5:39)

First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity Book TV , July 29, 2013 (19:19)

Taper Talk & the Fed Debate on the Kudlow Report , June 14, 2013 (8:30)

Introduction to Yang Jisheng, author of Tombstone 2013 Hayek Prize winner, May 29, 2013 (7:14)

Worst Recovery We’ve Seen in Years CNBC, April 30, 2013 (4:24)

Complete US Growth Likely 3 Percent in First Quarter Bloomberg TV, April 22, 2013 (6:27)

Bulging Budget Bothers Market Master CNBC’s, Squawk Box, April 12, 2013 (4:31)

Slowest Recovery in History  Wall Street Journal, Uncommon Knowledge, April 2013 (2:29)

Is There Anything We Can Do? Wall Street Journal, Uncommon Knowledge. April, 2013 (1:46)

Complete Interview on the Economic Recovery Wall Street Journal, Uncommon Knowledge, April 2013 (34:32)

Economic Freedom, Wealth, and the Alleviation of Poverty, Lecture in Stanford’s Ethics of Wealth Series, March 14, 2013 (1:23:51)

Beyond the Cuts, CNBC, March 5, 2013 (3:59)

How Uncertainty is Hurting the Economy, CNBC’s Squawk Box, February 7, 2013 (2:38)

Why the Economy is Stuck in Neutral, CNBC’s Squawk Box, February 7, 2013 (5:09)

John Taylor on Spending Cuts, Fox Business, February 7, 2013 (3:42)

Where’s the Inflation?, Wall Street Journal’s Opinion Journal, February 7, 2013 (4:50)

John Taylor on Fed’s Dual Mandate, Bloomberg’s Bottom Line, February 7, 2013 (5:37)

Slow Growth Is Biggest Economic Challenge Facing Incoming President, (with Austan Goolsbee), PBS NewsHour November 2, 2012 (11:39)

Our Unemployment Number is a Tragedy, Bloomberg’s in the Loop, November 2, 2012, (4:24)

We Could Be Doing Better, CNN, November 2, 2012 (2:56)

Recovery Would Have Been Better Without Quantitative Easing, Fox Business News, October 26, 2012

Part II of Recovery Would Have Been Better…, Fox Business News, October 26, 2012

Taylor: Romney Did a Terrific Job on Economy October 4, 2012, Bloomberg’s In the Loop (2:35)

Discussion-Debate with Kenneth Arrow on the Economy and the 2012 Election, October 9, 2012 (1:26:54)

Is This a Recovery in Name Only? September 21, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (7:44)

Will Fed’s Sprint to Print Ease Economic Woes?  September 21, 2012, CNCB’s Squawk Box (7:43)

Will Bernanke Announce Policy Changes in Jackson Hole? August 30, 2012, Fox Business (6:38)

Will Americans Buy Romney’s Proposals to Turn Around the Economy? August 28, 2012, PBS Newshour (8:41)

Taylor Says Fed Should Return to Rules-Based Policy August 28, 2012, Bloomberg Street Smart (9:11)

The Biggest Threats to the U.S. Economy August 23, 2012, Fox Business Willis Report (4:53)

Romney’s Economic Proposal Gaining Support Among Economists?, August 21, 2012 Fox Business (4:04)

What Can the Fed Do to Prop Up the Economy July 31, 2012, Fox Business (3:47)

Interview on Hayek and Policy Rules with Rick Santelli June 26, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk on the Street (6:25)

Interview on Economics, Leading Economists Series, Center for Advanced Studies in Economic Efficiency, December 2011

How US Can Reclaim Its Economic Strength? June 8, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (6:25)

The Eighth Annual Hayek Lecture June 1, 2012, The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research (57:48)

Monetary, Fiscal Policies Stall Growth, Taylor Says May 31, 2012, Bloomberg Television’s Inside Track (4:34)

First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity April 19, 2012, C-Span (37:47)

Tracking Gains in the Job Market April 9, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (6:53)

The Power of the Markets April 9, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (3:55)

Economic Debate: John Taylor and Larry Summers April 4, 2012, SIEPR (1:14:00)

Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity April 3, 2012, Reason TV (5:31)

Stocks Swing Higher March 8, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (7:27)

Bernanke’s Testimony and the Economy March 1, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (8:46)

First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity February 24, 2012, The Heritage Foundation (37:20)

The Greek Bailout Equation February 22, 2012, Wall Street Journal TV  (6:36)

Taylor on U.S. Budget Deficit February 21, 2012, Bloomberg Television’s Street Smart  (4:10)

Will Greece Get Bailout Package? February 14, 2012, CNBC (3:13)

Taylor on U.S. Deficit, Fed, Greece February 6, 2012, Bloomberg TV (7:09)

Economics for the Long Run January 24, 2012, Wall Street Journal TV (8:27)

Restoring Prosperity: Trust Markets, Not Bailouts January 24, 2012, The Street (3:13)

John Taylor’s Spending Rules to Live By January 23, 2012, Wall Street Journal TV (8:27)

The 5 Steps to Fixing the Economy January 20, 2012, Fox Business’ Willis Report (4:24)

Taylor on Fed Policy, US Economy January 20, 2012, Bloomberg’s Surveillance Midday (12:51)

Carnegie’s Meltzer on Fed Policy, Taylor Rule January 20, 2012, Bloomberg’s Surveillance Midday with Allan Meltzer (7:22)

Principles to Restore the Economy January 20, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (9:58)

Market Anticipates FOMC January 20, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box, segment on monetary policy with Steve Liesman (6:55)

“Economic Principles for Growth” January 20, 2012, CNBC’s Squawk Box (1:30)

Less recent videos of interviews and talks

 

Podcasts

John Taylor on the John Batchelor Show June 3, 2014, John Bachelor Show.

Taylor on Hays Advantage May 29, 2014, Hays Advantage, Bloomberg Radio.

Taylor on the Larry Kudlow Show March 22, 2014, The Larry Kudlow Show (86:34).

Taylor on the Larry Kudlow Show February 15, 2014, The Larry Kudlow Show (78:28).

John Taylor on the John Batchelor Show January 14, 2014, John Bachelor Show (19:27).

Extreme Policies Are a Big Problem, Despite Naysayer November 5, 2013, John Batchelor Show (10:07).

What Will It Take to Get the US Economy Moving? October 3, 2013, National Press Club Update-1 (9:47).

Republican Convention Coverage Part 2 August 30, 2012, WNYC’s Brian Lehrer Show (44:25).

The Romney Economic Plan August 29, 2012, NPR’s On Point (47:31).

Taylor on a Gold Standard and a Rules Based Fed Policy August 27, 2012, Hays Advantage (15:29).

First Principles and the Rule of Law June 26, 2012, John Bachelor Show.

First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity June 18, 2012, Money, Riches, and Wealth (21:55).

Fixing the weak US economy requires more long-term policy June 5, 2012, Market Place (4:04).

John Taylor’s 2012 Hayek Prize May 15, 2012, John Batchelor Show.

2012 Hayek Prize for First Principles May 15, 2012, John Batchelor Show (39:47).

John Batchelor Show Debate at the Hoover Institution, April 28-29, 2012

Keynes and Hayek, with attention to Milton Friedman’s conversation on Keynes and Hayek. Nicholas Wapshott, John Taylor, Michael Boskin, Russ Roberts. (Three segments broadcast on April 28 and 29, 2012 on the John Batchelor Show)

Segment 1

Segment 2

Segment 3

Taylor on Rules, Discretion and First Principles April 30, 2012, EconTalk. 1:02:34

Taylor on the John Batchelor Show April 3, 2012, John Batchelor Show.

First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity March 3, 2012, Larry Kudlow Show.

John Taylor on Returning Economy to Prosperity February 27, 2012, The Foundry (7:27).

Rebecca Costa’s Interview with John B. Taylor February 17, 2012, The Costa Report (51:20).

Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity February 16, 2012, KQED’s Forum (52:00).

John Taylor on Payne Nation January 25, 2012, Payne Nation.

John Taylor on the Tom O’Brien Show January 25, 2012, Tom O’Brien Show (starts around 1:21:00).

Stanford’s Taylor Says Economic Crisis Not Over January 20, 2010, Bloomberg’s Surveillance (13:50).

First Principles Broadcast on January 17, 2012, John Batchelor Show (starts at 19:27).

Less recent podcasts

 

Economics Teaching

Monetary Theory and Policy Lecture Slides and Syllabus for Stanford Ph.D. course, Spring 2013

Lessons From the Financial Crisis for Teaching Economics, Slide Presentation for AEA Conference on Teaching. June 2011

Economics 1A  Debt Charts from Lecture 2, S&P 500 Box, Adam Smith on the Woolen Coat; Smith Bio, The Role of Private Organizations, Rose Friedman, McKinnon on China, Lehman Weekend, JPMorgan-Money Multiplier, Monetary Imbalance Table-GDW, Phelps On Tunisia, Shultz on Steady as You Go, Requirements for Policy Rules for the FOMC

Caps for Sale: The Economic Side of the Story Stanford Economics Graduation, June 2008

Remarks at Stanford Economics Graduation Ceremony 1999

Economics 169, Spring 2008

Economics 212, Spring 2008

Ideas for the Economics Lecture Innovative Techniques for Teaching Economics

Surprise Side Economics: Ideas for Introductory Economics

Teaching Modern Macroeconomics at the Principles Level

 

Earlier Editions of Textbooks

Economics, Second Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Economics, Third Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Economics, Fifth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Economics, Sixth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Microeconomics, Second Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Microeconomics, Third Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Microeconomics, Fourth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Microeconomics, Fifth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Microeconomics, Sixth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Macroeconomics, Second Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Macroeconomics, Third Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Macroeconomics, Fourth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Macroeconomics, Fifth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Principles of Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition, Houghton Mifflin

Macroeconomics , Principles Text for Australian Economy with Bruce Littleboy, Third Edition, John Wiley

Microeconomics, Principles Text for Australian Economy with Lionel Frost), Third Edition, John Wiley

Handbook of Macroeconomics, (Editor with Michael Woodford)

Macroeconomics Intermediate Text with Robert E. Hall and David Papell, Sixth Edition, WW

 


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