Archive for August 5th, 2011
Weak Obama Recovery Ends–Great Obama Recession Economy Or GORE Starts–Labor Participation Rate in July 2011 Hits 27 Year Low of 63.9%–Over 130,000 Workers Leave Workforce In July 2011–No Jobs!–Videos
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Unemployment Rate Dips, Economy Adds 117K Jobs
Morning Market Alert for August 5, 2011
Rep. Brady’s first round of questioning during JEC employment hearing 8-8-11
August 5th 2011 CNBC Stock Market Squawk Box July 2011 Jobs Report
AARP: Jeffrey Davis on 2011 Unemployment
Unemployment Rate Primer
NewsBusted 8/5/11
Peter Schiff “If Bush Had Been A Better President We Would Not Have Elected Obama!”
Market Plunge Startles Investors, But Fed ‘Out of Ammo’ Amid Double-Dip Fears
The August 2011 unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the unemployment rate had declined slightly from 9.2% to 9.1% in July and 117,000 nonfarm jobs were created with 154,000 jobs created in the private sector.
Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |
| 2001 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | |
| 2002 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | |
| 2003 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | |
| 2004 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |
| 2005 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | |
| 2006 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | |
| 2007 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| 2008 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.3 | |
| 2009 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | |
| 2010 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.4 | |
| 2011 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.1 |
This would normally be good news.
Looking closely at the numbers reveals that the labor participation declined to 63.9% the lowest rate since January 1984 when the U.S. economy was starting to recover from a recession that ended in November 1982.
Normally the labor participation rate falls in a range of between 66% to 67%.
Since President Obama has been in office the labor participation rate has declined from 65.7% in January 2009 to the new low of 63.9% in July 2011.
Even during the 12 month economic recovery from July 2009 through June 2010 the labor participation rate never went back over 66% and in fact never exceeded 65.7%.
Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 63.7 | 63.8 | 63.9 | 63.7 | 63.8 | 63.7 | 63.6 | 63.7 | 63.8 | 63.6 | |
| 1981 | 63.9 | 63.9 | 64.1 | 64.2 | 64.3 | 63.7 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.5 | 63.8 | 63.9 | 63.6 | |
| 1982 | 63.7 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 63.9 | 64.2 | 63.9 | 64.0 | 64.1 | 64.1 | 64.1 | 64.2 | 64.1 | |
| 1983 | 63.9 | 63.8 | 63.7 | 63.8 | 63.7 | 64.3 | 64.1 | 64.3 | 64.3 | 64.0 | 64.1 | 64.1 | |
| 1984 | 63.9 | 64.1 | 64.1 | 64.3 | 64.5 | 64.6 | 64.6 | 64.4 | 64.4 | 64.4 | 64.5 | 64.6 | |
| 1985 | 64.7 | 64.7 | 64.9 | 64.9 | 64.8 | 64.6 | 64.7 | 64.6 | 64.9 | 65.0 | 64.9 | 65.0 | |
| 1986 | 64.9 | 65.0 | 65.1 | 65.1 | 65.2 | 65.4 | 65.4 | 65.3 | 65.4 | 65.4 | 65.4 | 65.3 | |
| 1987 | 65.4 | 65.5 | 65.5 | 65.4 | 65.7 | 65.5 | 65.6 | 65.7 | 65.5 | 65.7 | 65.7 | 65.7 | |
| 1988 | 65.8 | 65.9 | 65.7 | 65.8 | 65.7 | 65.8 | 65.9 | 66.1 | 65.9 | 66.0 | 66.2 | 66.1 | |
| 1989 | 66.5 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 66.4 | 66.3 | 66.5 | 66.5 | 66.5 | 66.4 | 66.5 | 66.6 | 66.5 | |
| 1990 | 66.8 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.4 | 66.5 | 66.5 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.4 | |
| 1991 | 66.2 | 66.2 | 66.3 | 66.4 | 66.2 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.0 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.0 | |
| 1992 | 66.3 | 66.2 | 66.4 | 66.5 | 66.6 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.6 | 66.5 | 66.2 | 66.3 | 66.3 | |
| 1993 | 66.2 | 66.2 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.4 | 66.5 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.2 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 66.4 | |
| 1994 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.5 | 66.5 | 66.6 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.7 | |
| 1995 | 66.8 | 66.8 | 66.7 | 66.9 | 66.5 | 66.5 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.5 | 66.4 | |
| 1996 | 66.4 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.9 | 66.7 | 66.9 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 67.0 | |
| 1997 | 67.0 | 66.9 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.2 | 67.2 | |
| 1998 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 67.1 | 67.2 | |
| 1999 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 67.0 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 67.1 | 67.1 | |
| 2000 | 67.3 | 67.3 | 67.3 | 67.3 | 67.1 | 67.1 | 66.9 | 66.9 | 66.9 | 66.8 | 66.9 | 67.0 | |
| 2001 | 67.2 | 67.1 | 67.2 | 66.9 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.8 | 66.5 | 66.8 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.7 | |
| 2002 | 66.5 | 66.8 | 66.6 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 66.6 | 66.5 | 66.6 | 66.7 | 66.6 | 66.4 | 66.3 | |
| 2003 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.3 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.5 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 65.9 | |
| 2004 | 66.1 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 65.9 | 66.0 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.0 | 65.8 | 65.9 | 66.0 | 65.9 | |
| 2005 | 65.8 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.0 | 66.0 | |
| 2006 | 66.0 | 66.1 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.2 | 66.1 | 66.2 | 66.3 | 66.4 | |
| 2007 | 66.4 | 66.3 | 66.2 | 65.9 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 65.8 | 66.0 | 65.8 | 66.0 | 66.0 | |
| 2008 | 66.2 | 66.0 | 66.1 | 65.9 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.0 | 66.1 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 65.8 | 65.8 | |
| 2009 | 65.7 | 65.7 | 65.6 | 65.6 | 65.7 | 65.7 | 65.5 | 65.4 | 65.1 | 65.1 | 65.0 | 64.7 | |
| 2010 | 64.8 | 64.8 | 64.9 | 65.1 | 64.9 | 64.7 | 64.6 | 64.7 | 64.7 | 64.5 | 64.5 | 64.3 | |
| 2011 | 64.2 | 64.2 | 64.2 | 64.2 | 64.2 | 64.1 | 63.9 |
Unfortunately the primary reason for the small .1% decline in the unemployment rate was not that more workers were finding employment in July.
Instead, the real reason the unemployment rate fell in July is that workers previously classified as unemployed were now considered discouraged workers and not unemployed or participating in the labor force.
Workers that normally would be considered unemployed left the labor force and became discouraged workers who are ready and willing to work and have looked for a job in the past, but now are so discouraged that they have stopped looking.
In July the number of discouraged workers rose from 982,000 in June to over 1,119,000 in July an increase of over 137,000.
Series Id: LNU05026645 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Not in Labor Force, Searched For Work and Available, Discouraged Reasons For Not Currently Looking Labor force status: Not in labor force Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Job desires/not in labor force: Want a job now Reasons not in labor force: Discouragement over job prospects (Persons who believe no job is available.)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 236 | 267 | 258 | 331 | 280 | 309 | 266 | 203 | 253 | 232 | 236 | 269 | 262 |
| 2001 | 301 | 287 | 349 | 349 | 328 | 294 | 310 | 337 | 285 | 331 | 328 | 348 | 321 |
| 2002 | 328 | 375 | 330 | 320 | 414 | 342 | 405 | 378 | 392 | 359 | 385 | 403 | 369 |
| 2003 | 449 | 450 | 474 | 437 | 482 | 478 | 470 | 503 | 388 | 462 | 457 | 433 | 457 |
| 2004 | 432 | 484 | 514 | 492 | 476 | 478 | 504 | 534 | 412 | 429 | 392 | 442 | 466 |
| 2005 | 515 | 485 | 480 | 393 | 392 | 476 | 499 | 384 | 362 | 392 | 404 | 451 | 436 |
| 2006 | 396 | 386 | 451 | 381 | 323 | 481 | 428 | 448 | 325 | 331 | 349 | 274 | 381 |
| 2007 | 442 | 375 | 381 | 399 | 368 | 401 | 367 | 392 | 276 | 320 | 349 | 363 | 369 |
| 2008 | 467 | 396 | 401 | 412 | 400 | 420 | 461 | 381 | 467 | 484 | 608 | 642 | 462 |
| 2009 | 734 | 731 | 685 | 740 | 792 | 793 | 796 | 758 | 706 | 808 | 861 | 929 | 778 |
| 2010 | 1065 | 1204 | 994 | 1197 | 1083 | 1207 | 1185 | 1110 | 1209 | 1219 | 1282 | 1318 | 1173 |
| 2011 | 993 | 1020 | 921 | 989 | 822 | 982 | 1119 |
The U.S. economy needs to create between 100,000 to 150,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and new entrants into the labor force.
Each month high school and college graduates and drop-outs enter the labor force for the first time.
In addition to jobs filled by new entrants into the labor force, the U.S. economy needs to create between 150,000 to 160,000 new jobs each month to reduce the unemployment rate by just .1% per month.
Therefore the U.S. economy needs to create approximately 300,000 new jobs each month to reduce the unemployment by .1%.
While the total number of new jobs created was estimated to be 117,000 in July this is barely enough to keep up with population growth and not even close to the 300,000 jobs needed to actually reduce the unemployment rate by .1%.
The creation of 300,000 new jobs each month would require a growth rate in the Gross Domestic Product of between 3% to 4% or roughly a 3.5% growth rate.
The U.S economy grew at only a .4% rate for the first quarter on 2011 and 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011.
This is signficantly less than the 3.5% growth rate in real GDP needed to reduce unemployment by .1% each month.
The primary reason the unemployment rate fell by .1% in July instead of remaining flator increasing was workers becoming discouraged at their job prospects and left the labor force.
This is indeed depressing news.
The U.S economy reached a peak in GDP growth in the middle of 2010.
Since then the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product measure in real terms has steadily declined for four consecutive quarters.
The Weak Obama Recovery has ended and the Great Obama Recession Economy or GORE has started.
The recent correction of over 10% on Wall Street is a leading indicator that the GORE has begun.
When will the recession hit bottom and another recovery begin?
When President Barack Obama is voted out of office in November 2012.
Until then keep looking for a job and do not become discouraged.
The Unemployment Game Show: Are You *Really* Unemployed?
Should the Bureau of Labor Statistics call you, tell them you have been looking for work.
Only then will you be considered unemployed and not be considered a discouraged worker.
A discouraged worker is classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistic as an individual that has left the labor force or is no longer participating.
This is one of the reasons the labor participation rate hit a new low of just 63.7% in July.
I expect the official unemployment rate to go over 10% in the first half of 2012 and then start to decline to just over 9% by election day 2012.
The US Misery Index by President
January 1948 to June 2011
Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate
| President | Time Period | Start | End | Change | Avg. |
| Richard M. Nixon | 1969-01 – 1974-07 | 7.80 | 17.01 | 9.21 | 10.57 |
| James E. Carter, Jr. | 1977-01 – 1980-12 | 12.72 | 19.72 | 7.00 | 16.26 |
| Barack H. Obama | 2009-01 – 2011-06 | 7.83 | 12.76 | 4.93 | 10.45 |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower | 1953-01 – 1960-12 | 3.28 | 7.96 | 4.68 | 6.26 |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | 1963-11 – 1968-12 | 7.02 | 8.12 | 1.10 | 6.77 |
| George H.W. Bush | 1989-01 – 1992-12 | 10.07 | 10.30 | 0.23 | 10.68 |
| George W. Bush | 2001-01 – 2008-12 | 7.93 | 7.49 | -0.44 | 8.11 |
| John F. Kennedy | 1961-01 – 1963-10 | 8.31 | 6.82 | -1.49 | 7.14 |
| William J. Clinton | 1993-01 – 2000-12 | 10.56 | 7.29 | -3.27 | 7.80 |
| Gerald R. Ford | 1974-08 – 1976-12 | 16.36 | 12.66 | -3.70 | 16.00 |
| Ronald W. Reagan | 1981-01 – 1988-12 | 19.33 | 9.72 | -9.61 | 12.19 |
| Harry S. Truman | 1948-01 – 1952-12 | 13.63 | 3.45 | -10.18 | 7.88 |
The OMI or Obama Misery Index, the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates has been rising and is at a new high of over 12.72% and heading for 15%.
This is better than President Jimmy Carter with a Misery Index over 20% in 1980.
President Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
The economic recovery or expansion of the U.S. economy will start when the American people become convinced that President Obama cannot be elected to a second term as President of the United States.
This will happen on or before Tuesday, November 6, 2012.
During the Great Depression the rate of unemployment hit a monthly high of 24.9% in March 1933 with about 13 million American unemployed, the month Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn in as President.
Today there are over 14 million American unemployed as measured by the offical unemployment rate (U-3) and over 25 million Americans seeking a full-time job as measured by the total unemployment rate (U-6).
A popular song in 1933 was Happy Days Are Here Again that may very well become a hit again in 2013!
Barbra Streisand – Happy Days Are Here Again
So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last
Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let’s sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Altogether shout it now
There’s no one
Who can doubt it now
So let’s tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again
Your cares and troubles are gone
There’ll be no more from now on
From now on …
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, Let’s sing a song of cheer again
Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!
Background Articles and Videos
Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One | Peter Schiff
EAT THE RICH!
What We Believe, Part 1: Small Government and Free Enterprise
What We Believe, Part 2: The Problem with Elitism
What We Believe, Part 3: Wealth Creation
Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 – 2007 (2nd Edition)
Ron Paul Was Right (1983-2008)
Ron Paul was Right
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