US Economy Stagnating With Lowest Labor Participation in 38 Years of 62.4% With 94.6 Million Americans Not In Labor Force and 7.9 Unemployed and Only 142,000 Jobs Created In September — Recession in 2016? — Videos
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Story 1: US Economy Stagnating With Lowest Labor Participation in 38 Years of 62.4% With 94.6 Million Americans Not In Labor Force and 7.9 Unemployed and Only 142,000 Jobs Created In September — Recession in 2016? — Videos
U.S. economy gains 142,000 jobs in September
Does the weak jobs report take a Fed rate hike off the table?
The weak September jobs report and the markets
RETAIL APOCALYPSE CONTINUES SALES WORSE SINCE 2009
The last time September Retail Sales growth was this weak was 2009, limping aimlessly out of the ‘Great Recession’. With a mere 0.9% year-over-year growth, Johnson-Redbook data seems to confirm what Reuters reports is looming – the weakest U.S. holiday sales season for retailers since the recession. Consultancy firm AlixPartners expects sales to grow 2.8-3.4% during the November-December shopping period compared with 4.4% in 2014, based on analyzing consumer spending trends so far this year, noting (myth-busting for permabulls) dollars saved at the pump are being directed to personal savings or on non-retail activities.
Bursting Oil Bubble Could Put US Back in Recession
Commodities Report: October 2, 2015
Keep U.S. Jobs Numbers Volatility in Perspective: Krueger
Bad Jobs Report Prediction Understandable Says ‘Superforecasting’ Author
October 2, 2015 Financial News – Business News – Stock Exchange – NYSE – Market News
Gold Webcast – Gold climbs on weak US jobs report
Before the Asia Bell: October 2, 2015
Peter Schiff: Minimum Wage Will Result In Mass Unemployment & Self Service
MARC FABER – World Economy Grinding to a Halt. Don’t Trade With Leverage
Thom Hartmann “The Crash of 2016”
Keiser Report: Market Wasteland (E817)
The September Jobs Report in 11 Charts
By JOSH ZUMBRUN , NICK TIMIRAOS and ERIC MORATH
The U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs in September, but there’s more to the monthly jobs report than the number of jobs added. The report provides a wealth of information about the demographics of unemployment—about who is unemployed and why—summarized in the following 11 charts.
Over the past three months the economy has added jobs at the slowest pace since February 2014. Employers were adding an average of more than 200,000 jobs each month since the spring of last year, but now that pace has slowed.
Similarly, the annual pace of job creation has eased in recent months after peaking above three million late last year.
As a result of the weaker gains in August and September, job creation in 2015 has fallen well off last year’s pace. However, the economy is still on track to post the second-best year for employment growth in the past decade.
Every measure of unemployment is declining this year. The broadest gauge, which includes part-timers who would prefer full-time employment and Americans too discouraged to look for a job, fell to 10% last month. That’s the lowest rate since May 2008.
The median unemployed worker has been without a job for 11.4 weeks. That’s substantially shorter than during the first few years of this economic recovery, but still high by historical standards.
The number of Americans working full-time has finally returned to its prerecession levels, though this doesn’t account for an increase in the overall population.
The labor-force participation rate—that is, the share of the population either working or looking for work—declined to the lowest rate since 1977. The employment-to-population ratio, that is, the share of the population with a job, fell to 59.2% from 59.4%.
Much of the reason for the decline in the labor force is simply that a growing number of baby boomers are choosing to retire. Among workers ages 25 to 54, labor-force participation and employment rates are higher. Among this group of workers, dubbed prime-age by labor market economists, labor-force participation fell to 80.6% from 80.7% last month.
People can be unemployed for a range of reasons—whether it’s entering the job market for the first time; re-entering after going to school, starting a family or caring for a relative; quitting an old job with no new one lined up; or losing a job, either on a temporary layoff or permanently. As the recovery has progressed, the share of the unemployed who lost their previous job has declined. A growing share of the unemployed are new entrant or re-entrants to the work force.
College graduates have a significantly lower unemployment rate, which was unchanged at 2.5% this month. High-school dropouts have significantly higher unemployment, which climbed to 7.9% this month from 7.7%.
The unemployment rate has continued to come down for men, women, whites, blacks and Hispanics. The gaps in the unemployment rate between men and women have mostly closed, but significant gaps remain between racial groups.
Corrections & Amplifications
Monthly employment gains in 2015 have averaged 198,000. An earlier version of the chart “Slower, But Still Solid,” incorrectly showed an average gain of 221,000 jobs. Also, the number of Americans working full-time increased in September using a three-month moving average. An earlier version of the chart “Working Longer” included data for July, August and September that didn’t use the three-month average, while the post incorrectly suggested the number of full-time workers according to that measure had declined in September. (Oct. 2, 2015).
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/10/02/the-september-jobs-report-in-11-charts/
U.S. job growth stumbles, raising doubts on economy
U.S. employers slammed the brakes on hiring over the last two months, raising new doubts the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of this year.
Payrolls outside of farming rose by 142,000 last month and August figures were revised sharply lower to show only 136,000 jobs added that month, the Labor Department said on Friday.
That marked the smallest two-month gain in employment in over a year and could fuel fears that the China-led global economic slowdown is sapping America’s strength.
“You can’t throw lipstick on this pig of a report,” said Brian Jacobsen, a portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
The weak job growth took Wall Street by surprise and U.S. stocks sold off while the dollar also weakened and yields for government bonds fell.
Bets on interest rate futures showed investors only saw a 30 percent chance of a Fed rate hike in December, down from just under 50 percent before the job report’s release.
“(With) a weak report here, in combination with some of the other weakness that we are seeing across the globe, the odds get dinged for December,” said Tom Porcelli, an economist at RBC Capital Markets.
Investors saw virtually no chance the Fed would end its near-zero interest rate policy at its only other scheduled meeting this year, to be held later in October. Futures prices indicated investors were betting the Fed would probably hike in March.
U.S. factories are feeling the global chill and shed 9,000 jobs in September after losing 18,000 in August, according to the Labor Department’s survey of employers.
“We saw events in China lead to some global financial turmoil and you’re seeing that in the data here,” White House chief economist Jason Furman told Reuters.
New orders received by U.S. factories fell 1.7 percent in August, the Commerce Department said in a separate report..
Paul Ryan, a top Republican lawmaker in the House of Representatives, said the weak turn in the economy should be a wake-up call for Washington to reform the national economy with new tax laws, free trade agreements and policies to get people off welfare. “This recovery continues to disappoint, but we can’t accept it as the new normal,” Ryan said.
The recent pace of job growth should have been enough to push the unemployment rate lower because only around 100,000 new jobs are needed a month to keep up with population growth.
But the jobless rate held steady at 5.1 percent. The unemployment rate is derived from a separate survey of households that showed 350,000 workers dropping out of the labor force last month, as well as a lower level of employment.
The share of the population in the work force, which includes people who have jobs or are looking for one, fell to 62.4 percent, the lowest level since 1977.
Average hourly wages fell by a cent to $25.09 during the month and were up only 2.2 percent from the same month in 2014, holding around the same levels seen all year and pointing to marginal inflationary pressures.
The report did have a few bright spots that might be welcomed by Fed chief Janet Yellen, who said last week the economy was doing well enough to warrant higher rates this year.
The number of workers with part-time jobs but who want more hours fell by 447,000 in September to 6.0 million.
Yellen has signaled that the elevated number of these workers points to hidden slack in the labor market that isn’t captured by the jobless rate. A measure of joblessness that includes these workers and is closely followed by the Fed fell to 10 percent, its lowest level since May 2008.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected job growth of 203,000 in September.
All told, revised estimates meant 59,000 fewer jobs were created in July and August than previously believed.
In another grim sign, the number of hours worked in the country fell 0.2 percent, raising the specter that some broader softness might have gripped the economy last month.
Some of the strongest headwinds on the U.S. economy come from the commodity sector, which has slowed in part because of weaker demand from China.
The price of oil has fallen nearly 50 percent over the last year, and U.S. mining payrolls, which include energy sector jobs, fell by 10,000 in September, the ninth straight month of declines.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/02/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0RW08V20151002
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-15-1912 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015 Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 • cpsinfo@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/cps Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 • cesinfo@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/ces Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2015 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell. Household Survey Data In September, the unemployment rate held at 5.1 percent, and the number of unemployed persons (7.9 million) changed little. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.8 percentage point and 1.3 million, respectively. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.6 percent), teenagers (16.3 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks (9.2 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little or no change in September. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in September and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.) The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September; the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months. The employment-population ratio edged down to 59.2 percent in September, after showing little movement for the first 8 months of the year. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 447,000 to 6.0 million in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons declined by 1.0 million. (See table A-8.) In September, 1.9 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 305,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) Among the marginally attached, there were 635,000 discouraged workers in September, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September. Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred in health care and information, while employment in mining continued to decline. (See table B-1.) Health care added 34,000 jobs in September, in line with the average increase of 38,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Hospitals accounted for 16,000 of the jobs gained in September, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+13,000). Employment in information increased by 12,000 in September and has increased by 44,000 over the year. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in September (+31,000). Job growth has averaged 45,000 per month thus far in 2015, compared with an average monthly gain of 59,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred in computer systems design and related services (+7,000) and in legal services (+5,000). Retail trade employment trended up in September (+24,000), in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+27,000). In September, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+10,000) and automobile dealers (+5,000). Employment in food services and drinking places continued on an upward trend in September (+21,000). Over the year, this industry has added 349,000 jobs. Employment in mining continued to decline in September (-10,000), with losses concentrated in support activities for mining (-7,000). Mining employment has declined by 102,000 since reaching a peak in December 2014. Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government, showed little or no change over the month. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in September. The manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.6 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.2 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $25.09, changed little (-1 cent), following a 9-cent gain in August. Hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent over the year. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees were unchanged at $21.08 in September. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 167,000 per month. _____________ The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 6, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).
- Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions
- Employment Situation Technical Note
- Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
- Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
- Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age
- Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
- Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status
- Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
- Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
- Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
- Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
- Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
- Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
- Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Access to historical data for the “A” tables of the Employment Situation Release
- Access to historical data for the “B” tables of the Employment Situation Release
- HTML version of the entire news release
Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
Category | Sept. 2014 |
July 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Sept. 2015 |
Change from: Aug. 2015- Sept. 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment status |
|||||
Civilian noninstitutional population |
248,446 | 250,876 | 251,096 | 251,325 | 229 |
Civilian labor force |
155,845 | 157,106 | 157,065 | 156,715 | -350 |
Participation rate |
62.7 | 62.6 | 62.6 | 62.4 | -0.2 |
Employed |
146,607 | 148,840 | 149,036 | 148,800 | -236 |
Employment-population ratio |
59.0 | 59.3 | 59.4 | 59.2 | -0.2 |
Unemployed |
9,237 | 8,266 | 8,029 | 7,915 | -114 |
Unemployment rate |
5.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 |
Not in labor force |
92,601 | 93,770 | 94,031 | 94,610 | 579 |
Unemployment rates |
|||||
Total, 16 years and over |
5.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 |
Adult men (20 years and over) |
5.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
Adult women (20 years and over) |
5.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -0.1 |
Teenagers (16 to 19 years) |
19.8 | 16.2 | 16.9 | 16.3 | -0.6 |
White |
5.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
Black or African American |
11.0 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 9.2 | -0.3 |
Asian |
4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 |
Hispanic or Latino ethnicity |
7.0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 | -0.2 |
Total, 25 years and over |
4.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
Less than a high school diploma |
8.3 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 |
High school graduates, no college |
5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.2 | -0.3 |
Some college or associate degree |
5.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | -0.1 |
Bachelor’s degree and higher |
2.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Reason for unemployment |
|||||
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs |
4,521 | 4,143 | 4,070 | 3,908 | -162 |
Job leavers |
816 | 843 | 790 | 780 | -10 |
Reentrants |
2,805 | 2,447 | 2,349 | 2,436 | 87 |
New entrants |
1,094 | 826 | 850 | 831 | -19 |
Duration of unemployment |
|||||
Less than 5 weeks |
2,372 | 2,488 | 2,095 | 2,363 | 268 |
5 to 14 weeks |
2,495 | 2,257 | 2,374 | 2,218 | -156 |
15 to 26 weeks |
1,423 | 1,188 | 1,250 | 1,214 | -36 |
27 weeks and over |
2,951 | 2,180 | 2,187 | 2,104 | -83 |
Employed persons at work part time |
|||||
Part time for economic reasons |
7,058 | 6,325 | 6,483 | 6,036 | -447 |
Slack work or business conditions |
4,165 | 3,828 | 3,841 | 3,569 | -272 |
Could only find part-time work |
2,528 | 2,213 | 2,242 | 2,134 | -108 |
Part time for noneconomic reasons |
19,579 | 19,891 | 19,760 | 19,971 | 211 |
Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted) |
|||||
Marginally attached to the labor force |
2,226 | 1,927 | 1,812 | 1,921 | – |
Discouraged workers |
698 | 668 | 624 | 635 | – |
– Over-the-month changes are not displayed for not seasonally adjusted data. |
Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
Category | Sept. 2014 |
July 2015 |
Aug. 2015(p) |
Sept. 2015(p) |
---|---|---|---|---|
EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY |
||||
Total nonfarm |
250 | 223 | 136 | 142 |
Total private |
235 | 195 | 100 | 118 |
Goods-producing |
38 | 7 | -22 | -13 |
Mining and logging |
7 | -9 | -9 | -12 |
Construction |
22 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Manufacturing |
9 | 11 | -18 | -9 |
Durable goods(1) |
10 | -4 | -4 | -5 |
Motor vehicles and parts |
2.2 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 |
Nondurable goods |
-1 | 15 | -14 | -4 |
Private service-providing |
197 | 188 | 122 | 131 |
Wholesale trade |
5.2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | -4.1 |
Retail trade |
31.5 | 28.6 | 4.4 | 23.7 |
Transportation and warehousing |
5.5 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 |
Utilities |
-1.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | -0.7 |
Information |
4 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
Financial activities |
10 | 15 | 12 | 0 |
Professional and business services(1) |
51 | 40 | 27 | 31 |
Temporary help services |
14.4 | -11.3 | 6.6 | 4.6 |
Education and health services(1) |
46 | 42 | 47 | 29 |
Health care and social assistance |
27.2 | 40.2 | 47.6 | 36.4 |
Leisure and hospitality |
49 | 32 | 32 | 35 |
Other services |
-3 | 8 | -8 | 1 |
Government |
15 | 28 | 36 | 24 |
(3-month average change, in thousands) |
||||
Total nonfarm |
237 | 243 | 201 | 167 |
Total private |
229 | 222 | 171 | 138 |
WOMEN AND PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES |
||||
Total nonfarm women employees |
49.4 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.4 |
Total private women employees |
47.9 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 |
Total private production and nonsupervisory employees |
82.6 | 82.4 | 82.4 | 82.4 |
HOURS AND EARNINGS |
||||
Total private |
||||
Average weekly hours |
34.5 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.5 |
Average hourly earnings |
$24.55 | $25.01 | $25.10 | $25.09 |
Average weekly earnings |
$846.98 | $865.35 | $868.46 | $865.61 |
Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3) |
101.5 | 103.9 | 104.0 | 103.8 |
Over-the-month percent change |
0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4) |
119.0 | 124.0 | 124.6 | 124.3 |
Over-the-month percent change |
0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
DIFFUSION INDEX |
||||
Total private (263 industries) |
61.4 | 60.1 | 55.5 | 52.9 |
Manufacturing (80 industries) |
53.8 | 50.6 | 39.4 | 44.4 |
Footnotes |
||||
NOTE: Data have been revised to reflect March 2014 benchmark levels and updated seasonal adjustment factors. |
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2015 (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2015 (Revised Estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.7 percent. With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 2). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Real GDP increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, after increasing 0.6 percent in the first. The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected an upturn in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in private inventory investment and in federal government spending. Real gross domestic income (GDI) -- the value of the costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of goods and services in the nation’s economy -- increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in the first. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the first. _______ FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA's Web site. _______ Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the first. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent. Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 6.1 percent, or $264.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $17,913.7 billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 0.8 percent, or $33.3 billion. Revisions The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to PCE, to nonresidential fixed investment, and to residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. For information on revisions, see "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components." Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP............................... 2.3 3.7 3.9 Current-dollar GDP..................... 4.4 5.9 6.1 Real GDI............................... ... 0.6 0.7 Average of Real GDP and Real GDI....... ... 2.1 2.3 Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.4 1.5 1.5 Corporate Profits Profits from current production Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) increased $70.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $123.0 billion in the first. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $34.6 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $23.4 billion in the first. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $24.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $70.5 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $11.4 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $29.0 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the second quarter, receipts increased $24.9 billion, and payments increased $13.4 billion. Taxes on corporate income increased $31.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $5.5 billion in the first. Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj increased $39.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $128.4 billion. Dividends increased $1.2 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $6.3 billion in the first. Undistributed profits increased $38.0 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $134.7 billion. Net cash flow with IVA -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $48.1 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $135.5 billion. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. The IVA decreased $78.7 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $45.7 billion in the first. The CCAdj increased $7.7 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $208.1 billion. Corporate profits with IVA Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $34.3 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $3.1 billion in the first. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $17.0 billion, compared with an increase of $117.3 billion. The second-quarter increase in profits of nonfinancial corporations primarily reflected an increase in “other” nonfinancial industries that was partly offset by a decrease in retail trade industries. A small increase in manufacturing industries reflected an increase in durable goods that was mostly offset by a decrease in nondurable goods. Gross value added of nonfinancial domestic corporate business Real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations decreased slightly in the second quarter. Profits per unit of real value added increased, reflecting an increase in unit prices and a decrease in unit nonlabor costs that were partly offset by an increase in unit labor costs. * * * BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- October 29, 2015 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2015 (Advance Estimate) http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/GDP/GDPnewsrelease.htm
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