The Coming Stock Market Crash and Recession? The End of American As You Know It? — Videos

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Story 1: The Coming Stock Market Crash and Recession? The End of American As You Know It? — Videos

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Warning, Warning, Stock Market Crash Alert: Hindenburg Omen Signals A Stock Market Crash–Videos

Posted on August 26, 2010. Filed under: Blogroll, Communications, Investments, Language, Law, liberty, Life, Links, People, Philosophy, Politics, Raves, Video, War, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , |

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Hindenburg Explodes 1937 Vintage Silent News Reel

1937 THE HINDENBURG – NEW OUTSTANDING COLOR FOOTAGE!!!

Beck: The Hindenburg Omen

Hindenburg Omen

Hindenburg

Financial Predictions Scarier than the Hindenburg Omen

Those who work in Wall Street or follow technical investment analysis are all abuzz over the Hindenburg Omen being triggered or called on Thursday, August 12, 2010 and subsequently confirmed on August 20, 2010.

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis pattern that signals not just a stock market decline but a stock market crash within forty days of the appearance of the Hindenburg Omen pattern.

The Hindenburg Omen is named after the Hindenburg crash of May 6, 1937 where Germany’s  Zeppelin airship the Hindenburg exploded and was destroyed as it was attempting to land in Lakehurst, New Jersey.

The creator of the Hindenburg Omen was a blind mathematician named Jim Miekka who came up with idea in 1995 as an indicator to predict major stock market movements using the New York Stock Exchange 52-week new Highs and Lows and moving average statistics.

In order for the Hindenburg Omen to be called the following criteria or requirements must be met:

  1. The daily number of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) new 52 Week High and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
  2. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) 10 Week moving average is rising.
  3. The new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows.
  4. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

92 companies listed on the NYSE or 2.9% of all companies hit a new 52-week high and 81 companies or 2.6% hit a new 52-week low on August 12, 2010 and the McClellan Oscillator was indeed negative on the same day.

The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator that measures the extent to which the stock market is overbought or oversold by the amount of money entering or leaving the market.

A number above zero indicates the market is bullish or stock prices are increasing and a number below zero indicates the market is bearish or stock prices are decreasing.

Does that mean there will definitely be a stock market crash of 15% or more in September 2010.

No it does not for the Hindenburg Omen has been wrong before.

What it does mean is the probability of a stock market crash is quite high due to an extreme divergence of investor opinion with a large number of companies experiencing either high or low stock prices.

When this happens it is very unlikely that their will a movement upwards in stock market prices.

If your investment portfolio or retirement plan is in equities or stocks, you can probably expect stock market prices to decline of at least 5% or more.

If you were counting on a significant increase in your retirement plan’s investment performance so you could retire, better put your plans on hold for the time being.

In a period of investment stock market uncertainty as well as economic uncertainty, cash or better yet  gold is king.

Should the Hindenburg Omen again prove correct and the stock market significantly decline, this will definitely impact the elections like it did in 2008 when the Hindenburg Omen called the stock market crashed.

Also, keep in mind that the stock market performance is generally a  leading indicator of what in the future will happen in the economy.

Looks like the Bush Obama Depression will last at least two more years.

The the official unemployment rate will most likely exceed 9% as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics U-3 unemployment statistical series and the total unemployment unemployment rate exceed 14% as measured by U-6 unemployment statistical series for another two years.

This means that more than 25 million Americans will be looking for full-time employment.

If you are graduating from high school or college finding a job will take considerably longer than in the past.

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/551783/?forcedownload=1

Background Articles and Videos

Doom. Doom! DOOM!!!

“…Here are the official Hindenburg Omen criteria that were met last week:

  • That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
  • That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
  • That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
  • That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
  • That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

http://reason.com/blog/2010/08/15/doom-doom-doom

Hindenburg Omen

“..The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis pattern that is said to portend a stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6, 1937, during which the German zeppelin Hindenburg was destroyed.

History

The Omen is largely based on Norman G. Fosback’s High Low Logic Index (HLLI).[1] The value of the HLLI is the lesser of the NYSE new highs or new lows divided by the number of NYSE issues traded, smoothed by an appropriate exponential moving average. The Omen itself is said to have originated with Jim Miekka[2], and the name was suggested by the late Kennedy Gammage.

Mechanics

The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole. The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash.

The rationale is that under “normal conditions” either a substantial number of stocks may set new annual highs or annual lows, but not both at the same time. As a healthy market possesses a degree of uniformity, whether up or down, the simultaneous presence of many new highs and lows may signal trouble.

Criteria

These criteria are calculated daily using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. (Other exchanges may be used as well.) Some have been recalibrated by Miekka to reduce statistical noise and make the indicator a more reliable predictor of a future decline.

  1. The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (typically, 84) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000)[3]. An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today’s market).
  2. The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.
  3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.
  4. New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).

The traditional definition requires each condition to occur on the same day. Once the signal has occurred, it is valid for 30 days, and any additional signals given during the 30-day period should be ignored. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator is negative, but deactivated whenever it is positive.[4]

…”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

The Past Performance of the Hindenburg Omen Stock Market Crash Signals 1985 – 2005

“…How has this signal performed over the past 21 years, since 1985? The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen is that the daily number of NYSE New 52 Week Highs and the Daily number of New 52 Week Lows must both be so high as to have the lesser of the two be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day. However, this is just condition number one. The traditional definition had two more filters: That the NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is also Rising (condition # 2), and that the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day (condition # 3). These measures are calculated each evening using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. Critics have taken this definition and pointed rightly to several failed Omens (although the correlation was still quite good).

But if we add two more filters, the correlation to subsequent severe stock market declines is remarkable. Condition # 4 requires that New 52 Week NYSE Highs cannot be more than twice New 52 Week Lows, however it is okay for New 52 Week Lows to be more than double New 52 Week Highs. Our research found that there were two incidences where the first three conditions existed, but New Highs were more than double New Lows, and no market decline resulted. There were no instances noted where if 52 Week Highs were more than double New Lows, while the first three conditions were met, that a severe decline followed. So condition # 4 becomes a critical defining component. The fifth condition we found important for high correlation is that for a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, in other words for it to be “official,” there must be more than one signal within a 36 day period, i.e., there must be a cluster of Hindenburg Omens (defined as two or more) to substantially increase the probability of a coming stock market plunge. Our research noted seven instances over the past 21 years where – using the first four conditions – there was just one isolated Hindenburg Omen signal over a thirty-six day period. In six of the seven instances, no sharp declines followed. In only one instance did a sharp subsequent sell-off occur based upon a non-cluster single Omen, but in that case it was incredibly close to having a cluster of two Omens as the previous day’s McClellan Oscillator just missed being negative. We included this instance in our data below. …”

http://www.safehaven.com/article/3880/the-past-performance-of-the-hindenburg-omen-stock-market-crash-signals-1985-2005


http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/McClellanOscillator.html

McClellan Oscillator

“…The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator used by financial analysts of the New York Stock Exchange to evaluate the rate of money entering or leaving the market and interpretively indicate overbought or oversold conditions of the market.[1]

History

Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan in 1969, the Oscillator is computed using the exponential moving average (EMA) of the daily ordinal difference of advancing issues (stocks which gained in value) from declining issues (stocks which fell in value) over 39 trading day and 19 trading day periods.

How it works

The simplified formula for determining the Oscillator is:

Oscillator = (19 day EMA of Advances minus Declines) − (39 day EMA of Advances minus Declines)

The McClellan Summation Index (MSI) is calculated by adding each day’s McClellan Oscillator to the previous day’s Summation Index.

By using the Summation Index of the Mcclellan Oscillator, you can judge the markets overall bullishness or bearishness.

MSI properties

  • above zero it is considered to be bullish (positive growth)
  • below zero it is considered to be bearish (negative growth)

The Summation Index is oversold at -1000 to -1250 or overbought at 1000 to 1250. [1]

The number of stocks in a stock market determine the dynamic range of the MSI. For the NZSX (one of the smallest exchanges in the English speaking world) the MSI would probably range between (-50 … +50), the 19 and 39 constants (used for the US exchanges) would have to be revised. For the NZSX a MSI moving average mechanism might be needed to smooth out the perturbations of such a small number of traded stocks. …”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McClellan_Oscillator

We Get An Official Confirmed Hindenburg Omen On August 20th, 2010

“…A reader asked: “Would you be willing to test or comment on the 8/14 Wall Street Journal article ‘Hindenberg Omen Flashes’?” The Hindenburg Omen is a complex technical signal that, including confirmation via clusters of signals, consists of simultaneous satisfaction of five rules for NYSE stocks. Different informal sources indicate some variation in the rules among practitioners. For the sake of consistency in rule application, we consider the “confirmed” Hindenburg Omens cited by Robert McHugh in his 8/21/10 article entitled “We Get An Official Confirmed Hindenburg Omen On August 20th, 2010″. This article states that, after Hindenburg Omens, “plunges can occur as soon as the next day, or as far into the future as four months.” Using the dates of the Hindenburg Omens reported in these articles and weekly closing levels of the S&P 500 Index during 1/3/86 through 8/13/10, we find that:

We make the following adjustments to the dates of confirmed Hindenburg Omens as listed in the cited article:

  • Exclude one of the duplicate listings for 6/20/02.
  • Replace the out-of-order listing of 2/22/98 with the date of 12/23/98 in the associated footnote (which would be in order).

Note that the maximum drawdown listed in the cited article after the Hindenburg Omen date of 6/6/08 falls outside the specified four-month horizon for omen effectiveness. In general, the post-omen maximum drawdowns appear to derive from intraday data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over intervals ranging from one day to 276 days. Four of the omen dates have four-month horizons that overlap with four-month horizons of other omen dates.

 

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/technical-trading/hindenburg-omens/

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