Why are oil prices falling – explained in 60 seconds?
Plunging Prices for Oil
How will plunging oil prices affect the economy?
PRIME TIME NEWS 22:00 OPEC refuses to cut production, oil prices slump
OPEC Curtain Raiser
Plunging Oil Prices Have Unpredictable Impact on Politics, Economics
The Real Reason for Falling Oil and Gas Prices
Will OPEC Spark Oil Price War With Production Cuts?
Oil Prices Tumble Again: How Long Will This Go On?
Series Preview: The Global Drop in Oil Prices
Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Bhalla and Global Energy Analyst Matt Bey discuss highlights of an upcoming series on the geopolitical impact of oil below $90 a barrel.
For more analysis, visit: http://www.Stratfor.com
“USA-SAUDI ARABIA” WILL PAY FOR THEIR “OIL PRICE MANIPULATIONS”!
Impact of Low Oil Prices: Petro Power or Petro Poverty?
Top 10 Oil Producing Countries in the World 2013-2014 –
At present transportation has become the major sector in the world which has facilitated all the people living around the different countries.So there is a need of billions barrels of fuel. There is no country in the world which has not the need of fuel, so there are several countries which are producing the fuels at their own resources while some countries are importing fuel from the other producers just to survive their transportation as well as the industrial sector.
So its importance can not be denied because its precious resources are also known as black gold.The nations having largest reserves in their geographical boundaries are considered the luckiest and richest countries. Following is a list of top ten countries which are considered the largest oil producers in the world.
List of Top 10 Largest Oil Producing Countries in the world 2013
1. Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil-producing and exporting country producing more than 11.75 million barrels per day which is more than 13% of world’s entire output. It has very good reputation in the Muslim countries around the world having the number of Islamic historical places.
2. United States
USA is the 2nd largest oil-producing nation it is not only the second biggest producer.Although it has it has a huge amount of production and more than 21 billion barrels proven reserves yet it is an oil importing country because it has the highest fuel consumption rate than other countries .It is producing more than 10.59 million barrels per day which is about 12% of the world’s over all production.
Russia has the 11.4% share in the world’s entire production.Its reserves are accounted more than 60 billion barrels making it the third biggest oil-producing country around the globe.
China is officially recognized as People Republic of China which is the largest country in the world by its population. Most of its cities are considered the largest cities of the world by population.It is the fourth largest oil-producing country in the world with daily production of 4.19 billion barrels which is 4.7% of world’s total production.China is World’s Largest Rice Producing country click here to see its annual rice output.
Iran is the fifth nation in the ranking list of top 10 largest oil-producing countries in the world. It has 4.6 % share in the world’s overall production which more than 4.13 million barrels per day production.
Canada has a fantastic and stable economy in the world. It one of the biggest oil-producing nations around the globe having more than 179 billion barrels proven reserves. Its daily production is 3.92 million barrels which is 4.4% of world’s total production.
7. United Arab Emirates
UAE is producing 3.23 million barrels oil per day which is 3.6% of the world production. Its further oil reserves are accounted more than 98 billion barrels.UAE is going to increase it’s per day production up to 5 million barrels in the next coming years. And according to a recent estimate United States of Arab Emirates has further reserves enough for the next 93 years.UAE is the 7th richest country in the world by per capita GDP.
Mexico is officially recognized as United Mexican States covering the total area of 1,972,550 square km. it has the 8th rank in the list of top ten largest oil producers in the world. It is producing 2.95 million barrels per day which is the 3.3 percent of the global output.
Brazil is the 9th largest oil-producing nation in the world, its production share in the global output is 3.15%. It is producing 2.8 million barrels per day. Brazil has already 12.86 billion barrels proven oil reserves and according to an estimate, which is expected to increase after the discovery of Jupiter Oil Field.
Kuwait is the 9th richest country in the world having the strongest currency rate in the world. It has more than 104 billion barrels in its proven oil reserves while its share in the world’s entire oil output is accounted for 3.1% making it the 10th largest oil-producing country in the world. It is producing about 2.75 million barrels per day.
Question of the day
Q : what country produces the most oil in the world?
Ans : At present Saudi Arabia the biggest oil producer in the world having 11.75 billion barrels daily production which is 13% of world’s total output.
– See more at: http://www.thecountriesof.com/top-10-oil-producing-countries-in-the-world-2013-2014/#sthash.oTfzW92z.dpuf
As oil prices plunge, wide-ranging effects for consumers and the global economy
By Steven Mufson
Tumbling oil prices are draining hundreds of billions of dollars from the coffers of oil-rich exporters and oil companies and injecting a much-needed boost for ailing economies in Europe and Japan — and for American consumers at the start of the peak shopping season.
The result could be one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history, potentially reshaping everything from talks over Iran’s nuclear program to the Federal Reserve’s policies to further rejuvenate the U.S. economy.
The price of oil has declined about 40 percent since its peak in mid-June and plunged last week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries voted to continue to pump at the same rate. That continued a trend driven by a weak global economy and expanding U.S. domestic energy supplies.
The question facing investors, companies and policymakers is how low oil prices will go — and for how long. Every day, American motorists are saving $630 million on gasoline compared with what they paid at June prices, and they would get a $230 billion windfall if prices were to stay this low for a year. The vast majority of that will flow into the economy, with lower-income households living on tight budgets likely to use money not otherwise spent on gas to buy groceries, clothing and other staples.
On Monday, the average U.S. price for a gallon of regular-grade gasoline was $2.77, according to AAA, which projects that prices could drop by an additional 10 to 20 cents.
(The Washington Post)
Big American companies are better off, too. Every penny the price of jet fuel declines means savings of $40 million for Delta Air Lines, the company’s chief executive said in a recent CBS interview.
(Related stories: A simple guide to the sudden collapse in oil prices
How plunging oil prices could affect your pocketbook
Could gas prices go as low as $2 a gallon?)
“Despite the impressive recent gains in natural gas and crude oil production, the U.S. still is a net importer of energy,” William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said Monday at Bernard Baruch College. “As a result, falling energy prices are beneficial for our economy and should be a strong spur to consumer spending.”
An employee changes figures on a board showing currency exchange rates in Moscow on Monday. (Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters)
Although falling oil prices lower inflation, the Federal Reserve tends to view that as a fleeting effect that would not alter its underlying judgments about policy. Nonetheless, Dudley said, “the slump in oil prices may also help to persuade” the European and Japanese central banks to implement further monetary easing as prices remain subdued.
The consequences of the decline in oil prices are also evident in politics and pocketbooks.
At current prices, the annual revenue of OPEC members would shrink by $590 billion, money that will instead stay within the borders of the world’s biggest oil importers, led by the United States, China and Japan.
The size of the global economy will “easily be between 0.5 percent and 1.0 percent higher as a result of the decline in oil prices,” wrote Andrew Kenningham, senior global economist for London-based Capital Economics.
The 40 percent drop in the price of the international benchmark Brent-grade crude oil over the past five months will reduce annual revenue to oil producers worldwide by a whopping $1.5 trillion.
“Those losses are staggering,” Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote to investors Monday.
The losers include Russia, where the value of the ruble has been crumbling, inflation has crept up to more than an 8 percent rate and oil prices have done more to hurt the economy than Western sanctions.
In Iran, whose economy and government budget rely heavily on oil sales, low prices could intensify the effect of sanctions that have curbed the country’s oil exports in an effort to pressure the regime into reaching a diplomatic accord on its nuclear program.
In Venezuela, dwindling oil revenue has exacerbated an economic crisis that is also tied to fuel subsidies, price controls and generous social programs.
In the United States, there are losers, too — mostly in the oil patch. The oil services giant Halliburton has lost 44 percent of its value since July 23. Heavily indebted Continental Resources, a huge shale oil producer in North Dakota’s Bakken region, has lost half its value since Aug. 29. Even BP, a big, integrated firm, has lost a quarter of its value in just the past few months.
“It happened so fast, it’s been a shock to the system,” said Scott D. Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources. Sheffield said that if oil prices had stayed between $90 and $100 a barrel, Pioneer would have added 10 new rigs to its fleet of 40, nearly all drilling shale oil wells. Now he is going to wait and see before announcing capital spending plans in February.
The prospect of low oil prices over an extended period grew much stronger last week after OPEC opted to maintain output instead of paring back to prop up prices.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s swing producer, with about 9.7 million barrels of production a day, has usually adjusted its output to moderate lurches in oil prices. But the kingdom has grown worried that production will continue to grow outside OPEC, reducing the cartel to a smaller and smaller share of the global market. So Saudi Arabia has chosen to fight for market share by letting prices slide.
That could jump-start global oil demand, currently about 94 million barrels a day. But it could also slow down or halt the growth in global oil supplies.
The biggest target of this strategy: U.S. shale oil, which has grown from a negligible amount six years ago to 4 million barrels a day, nearly half of U.S. production and more than any OPEC member except Saudi Arabia. Other high-cost oil projects, such as Canada’s oil sands, could also be curtailed or postponed.
But oil prices have historically swung from one extreme to another; it takes years for price signals to change exploration plans and production levels. U.S. exploration firms might be able to withstand lower oil prices than OPEC members that need oil revenue to balance their budgets and keep their citizens content. A Citibank analysis says that current prices will not eliminate growth in U.S. shale oil output, only trim that growth by 30 percent.
Within OPEC, there was discord. “It is not good for OPEC,” Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in an interview with the newsletter Argus Global Markets. “Some of our colleagues in OPEC believe they should wait and see what the market reaction is, especially in U.S. shale investment.” He added that “it’s a very risky issue” and could require “years, not months.”
There are risks in the United States, too. Kathy Jones, fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab, said that while lower oil prices will boost consumer spending, which makes up 68 percent of the U.S. economy, it could also hurt investment, which runs high in the petroleum business. She also noted that oil and gas companies account for 15 percent of the Barclays U.S. high-yield index, double what it was a few years ago.
“High yield means more highly leveraged, and we don’t know what a 30 or 40 percent drop in oil prices will mean,” Jones said. “It’s going to show up in places, I’m sure. It’s just a question of where.”
The Fed’s Dudley was less concerned. “Even after the large gains in recent years, oil and gas investment remains a small fraction of GDP,” he said.
On Monday, traders and investors struggled to grasp OPEC’s stance; prices slid then rebounded sharply to $69 a barrel.
Although analysts said that global production is running about 2 million barrels a day over consumption, barely 2 percent of world demand, slight economic changes or a renewal of paralyzing civil strife in Libya could shrink that extra margin.
On the other hand, the sudden glut — while small — could grow even larger if Libya restores more of its former production, Iraq continues to expand output from its low-cost reservoirs and Iran strikes a deal over its nuclear program that would lift sanctions and permit a jump in exports.
Iran’s oil minister told Argus Global Markets that Iran could increase output by 1 million barrels a day within two months.
That has left people guessing. Richard Anderson, chief executive of Delta Air Lines, said on “CBS This Morning” on Nov. 25 that the airline was planning on jet fuel costing $2.80 a gallon in 2015, though he acknowledged that “all this is a bit of a thumb in the wind.”
Robert McNally, president of the Rapidan Group consulting firm, said OPEC seemed to be letting non-OPEC countries resolve the market surplus and surprised the industry by not scheduling another meeting until June 5. “This was about as bearish a signal as OPEC could have sent to the market,” he said.
Read Full Post
| Make a Comment ( None so far )
“Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”
“This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.”
“Most of the evil in this world is done by people with good intentions.”
“There Was No Increase In The Standard of Living Since 1997″ – Lacy Hunt
Kung Fu Girl interviews Lacy Hunt
Roadblocks to Recovery an Interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt
We Move Along Toward the Bang Point – Lacy Hunt
An Early Warning Sign is the Currency Depreciates – Lacy Hunt; Part II
Former Fed Official warns of multi-decade downturn PART 1 – Lacy Hunt
Former Fed Official warns of multi-decade downturn PART 2 – Lacy Hunt
T. S. Eliot – The Hollow Men
The Hollow Men T.S. Eliot How Cultures Die
Background Articles and Videos
Velocity of Money (Circulation) Part 1
Velocity of Money (Circulation) Part 2
Related Posts on Pronk Palisades
Read Full Post
| Make a Comment ( None so far )
Inverted Yield Curve
What is a Yield Curve?
What is a yield curve? – MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials
Yield Curve analysis
Treasury Bond Prices and Yields
The basics of bonds – MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials
Bonds basics part two – MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials
Jim Grant: Honey, I Shrunk the Yield Curve!!
Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, December 2012
December 28, 2012
Covering November 24–December 14, 2012
|3-month Treasury bill rate (percent)
|10-year Treasury bond rate (percent)
|Yield curve slope (basis points)
|Prediction for GDP growth (percent)
|Probability of recession in 1 year (percent)
Overview of the Latest Yield Curve Figures
Over the past month, the yield curve has gotten slightly steeper, with long rates edging up and short rates edging down. The three-month Treasury bill fell to 0.07 percent (for the week ending December 14) down from November’s 0.09 percent, itself just down from October’s 0.10 percent. The ten-year rate, at 1.69 percent, is up a scant two basis points from November’s 1.67 percent, but still remains a full ten points below October’s 1.79 percent. The slope increased to 162 basis points, up four basis points from November’s 158, but still down from the 169 basis points seen in October.
The steeper slope was not enough to have an appreciable change in projected future growth, however. Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 0.6 percent rate over the next year, even with both October and November. The strong influence of the recent recession is still leading towards relatively low growth rates. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, the forecast comes in on the more pessimistic side of other predictions but like them, it does show moderate growth for the year.
The slope change had a bit more impact on the probability of a recession. Using the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in recession in the future, we estimate that the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next December is 8.6 percent, down from November’s 9.2 percent, and up a bit from October’s 8.2 percent. So although our approach is somewhat pessimistic with regard to the level of growth over the next year, it is quite optimistic about the recovery continuing. We’re not sure if that lower chance of a recession counts as a gift from Santa, but we’ll take it.
The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Growth
The slope of the yield curve—the difference between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth. The rule of thumb is that an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year, and yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions (as defined by the NBER). One of the recessions predicted by the yield curve was the most recent one. The yield curve inverted in August 2006, a bit more than a year before the current recession started in December 2007. There have been two notable false positives: an inversion in late 1966 and a very flat curve in late 1998.
More generally, a flat curve indicates weak growth, and conversely, a steep curve indicates strong growth. One measure of slope, the spread between ten-year Treasury bonds and three-month Treasury bills, bears out this relation, particularly when real GDP growth is lagged a year to line up growth with the spread that predicts it.
Predicting GDP Growth
We use past values of the yield spread and GDP growth to project what real GDP will be in the future. We typically calculate and post the prediction for real GDP growth one year forward.
Predicting the Probability of Recession
While we can use the yield curve to predict whether future GDP growth will be above or below average, it does not do so well in predicting an actual number, especially in the case of recessions. Alternatively, we can employ features of the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in a recession at a given point in the future. Typically, we calculate and post the probability of recession one year forward.
Of course, it might not be advisable to take these numbers quite so literally, for two reasons. First, this probability is itself subject to error, as is the case with all statistical estimates. Second, other researchers have postulated that the underlying determinants of the yield spread today are materially different from the determinants that generated yield spreads during prior decades. Differences could arise from changes in international capital flows and inflation expectations, for example. The bottom line is that yield curves contain important information for business cycle analysis, but, like other indicators, should be interpreted with caution. For more detail on these and other issues related to using the yield curve to predict recessions, see the Commentary “Does the Yield Curve Signal Recession?” Our friends at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York also maintain a website with much useful information on the topic, including their own estimate of recession probabilities.
Read Full Post
| Make a Comment ( None so far )
Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 84-
Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 79-83
Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 74-78
Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 71-73
Segment 0: Economic Consequences of Obama: Worse Economic Recovery in U.S. History–Jumping Off The Fiscal Cliff–Fuse Lit On Debt Bomb!–Videos
Thelma & Luise – Alternative Final Scene
Rep. Kevin Brady Jobs Numbers Interview with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow 07-06-12
CBS: “This Is The Worst Economic Recovery America Has Ever Had
THAT LOOKS BAD!
Going off the Fiscal Cliff–Better Not Look Down
Democrats: We’re Willing to Send America Off the Fiscal Cliff
Sen. Tom Coburn’ on ‘Debt Bomb': Everybody Must Sacrifice
The Debt Bomb book Glenn Beck w/ Senator Tom Coburn on GBTV Stop Washington from Bankrupting America
Uncommon Knowledge: White America Is ‘Coming Apart’
Why You’ve Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920 | Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
Deficits, Debts and Unfunded Liabilities: The Consequences of Excessive Government Spending
How Big Is the U.S. Debt?
Marc Faber China a Bubble about to burst
Douglas Holtz-Eakin: Going Off the Fiscal Cliff Is Irresponsible
Senator Pat Toomey on Fiscal Cliff: A Strong Recovery Is within Reach
Senator Pat Toomey on Fiscal Policy: We’ve Created a Chilling Environment
Dr. Coburn on Charlie Rose on US Debt Crisis, Leadership Deficit in Washington
The Fuse is Lit: European Perils
Marc Faber the Great Depression all over again
Jim Rogers – A Holocaust is Coming
Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012 after rising 3.0 percent in the
fourth quarter, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first-quarter growth rate was unchanged from the second estimate released in May.
Revisions to GDP
For the third estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth, upward revisions to net exports and business investment in structures were offset by downward revisions to consumer spending, inventory investment, and state and local government spending.
Disposable income and saving Real disposable personal income—which adjusts personal income for taxes and inflation—rose 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.7 percent, compared with 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
The personal saving rate has declined for six quarters in a row.
Net exports increased (after decreasing in the fourth quarter), consumer spending accelerated, and residential housing investment picked up in the first quarter. These positive economic contributions, however, were more than offset by a slowdown in inventory investment.
The slowdown in inventory investment reflected a sharp downturn in the manufacturing and wholesale industries. In contrast,
retail inventory investment turned up, especially by motor vehicles dealers.
Congressman Forbes on Lou Dobbs Tonight discusses DHS circumventing immigration laws
IT’S OFFICIAL: Obama Recovery Now Ranks Dead Last in Modern Times
Obama now ranks 10th of 10 recoveries in both jobs & economic growth
“…With the new June jobs report in hand, President Barack Obama’s economic recovery now ranks as the worst in modern times in terms of both job creation and economic growth, says the GOP leader of Congress’s Joint Economic Committee.
Texas Congressman Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the Joint Economic Committee, observed that the June Employment Report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics along with the gross domestic product report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on June 28th has marked a milestone: President Obama’s economic recovery ranks as dead last in the post-World War II era.
“Since 1945, the United States has had ten economic recoveries that lasted more than one year. In terms of both how fast the U.S. economy has recovered and how many private sector jobs have been created since the recession’s low point, President Obama now ranks tenth of ten – that’s dead last”, said Brady.
“Three years after the recession officially ended in June 2009, we still have more than four million fewer private sector jobs than we did when the recession started,” he continued. “And for the 41st consecutive month, the unemployment rate has soared above a discouraging 8%.”
Brady says that while President Obama boosts about the 4.4 million private sector jobs he claims have been created during the latest 28 months, put in perspective “President Obama’s recovery has been weaker than every one of his predecessors in the past seven decades. He can try to spin it any way he wants but when measured by jobs or by economic growth he’s at the bottom of the list.”
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP grew expanded by 6.7% over eleven quarters since the recession ended. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the number of private sector jobs had grown by a mere 4.1% since the cyclical low point.
In contrast, real GDP expanded by 17.6%, and private sector jobs ballooned by 10.7% during comparable periods of the Reagan recovery. “Obama’s economic record, frankly, is embarrassing,” Brady said.
“Think about it – despite President Obama’s stimulus, financial bailout, housing bailout, auto bailout, cash-for-clunkers, cash-for-caulkers and an unprecedented five trillion dollars in deficit spending, the Obama recovery is officially dead last in results. Can unemployed Americans really afford four more years of this failed economic leadership?” …”
Krauthammer’s Epic Takedown of Obama’s Anti-Business Speech
Congressman Kevin Brady Questions Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke 6-7-12
‘Unintended Consequences’ Author Ed Conard on Bain Capital, Economics and Obama’s Record
‘Don’t Vote For Obama’ – President’s Harvard Professor
Robert Mangabeira Unger – “Beyond Obama”
Background Articles and Videos
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (1 of 8)
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (2 of 8)
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (3 of 8)
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (4 of 8)
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (5 of 8)
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (6 of 8)
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (7 of 8)
U.S. debt crisis explained: IOUSA (8 of 8)
Economic Cycles Before the Fed | Thomas E Woods, Jr.
The Creature From Jekyll Island (by G. Edward Griffin)
Read Full Post
| Make a Comment ( None so far )