Department of Labor Revised Job Numbers in November of 414,000 and December of 329,000 Plus 257,000 in January — Wages Increase 12 Cents Per Hour — Solid Jobs Report — U-3 Unemployment Rate Increased From 5.6% to 5.7% and 9 Million Unemployed — 1 Million Additional Americans Looking For Jobs — Spread The Message of Liberty — Videos
The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts
Story 1: Department of Labor Revised Job Numbers in November of 414,000 and December of 329,000 Plus 257,000 in January — Wages Increase 12 Cents Per Hour — Solid Jobs Report — U-3 Unemployment Rate Increased From 5.6% to 5.7% and 9 Million Unemployed — 1 Million Additional Americans Looking For Jobs — Spread The Message of Liberty — Videos
Gallup CEO: Labor Department Numbers Are Misleading
Are monthly jobs numbers misleading
Gallup CEO Jim Clifton The “Real” Unemployment Rate In America @ 11.2% Double What Obama Says
Gallup discovers Obama may not be truthful on unemployment (Limbaugh)
Latest Jobs Report Sparking Questions About The Quality Of Jobs Being Created – Cavuto
Ep 51: Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up
Investor Jim Rogers Gives Warning to Investor
US Job Market Improves
US jobs market booms as recovery accelerates
Nightly Business Report — February 6, 2015
February 6, 2015 Financial News – Business News – Stock Exchange – NYSE – Market News
The H1-B visa scam
Bill Gates Asks Senate For Infinite Number Of H 1B Visas
Peter Schiff Inflation Deterring Economic Growth
Taylor at CFR: Rethinking the Fed’s Dual Mandate
Uncommon Knowledge with John B. Taylor
A Discussion of the Fed’s Dual Mandate Responsibilities
The Federal Reserve’s Stanley Fischer on Inflation and Financial Stability
Sessions Calls On All Colleagues To Block President’s Planned Amnesty & Work Permits
Please Spread The Message of Liberty
“Proclaim liberty throughout the land to all its inhabitants.”
Gallup CEO: I May “Suddenly Disappear” For Telling Truth About Obama Unemployment Rate (Video)
Posted by Jim Hoft on Sunday, February 8, 2015, 9:02 AM
Gallup CEO Jim Clifton told CNBC he might “suddenly disappear” for telling the truth about the Obama unemployment rate.
The real Obama unemployment rate has never recovered and is still above 10%.
Wall Street on Parade reported:
Yesterday, Jim Clifton, the Chairman and CEO of Gallup, an iconic U.S. company dating back to 1935, told CNBC that he was worried he might “suddenly disappear” and not make it home that evening if he disputed the accuracy of what the U.S. government is reporting as unemployed Americans.
The CNBC interview came one day after Clifton had penned a gutsy opinion piece on Gallup’s web site, defiantly calling the government’s 5.6 percent unemployment figure “The Big Lie” in the article’s headline. His appearance on CNBC was apparently to walk back the “lie” part of the title and reframe the jobs data as just hopelessly deceptive.
Clifton stated the following on CNBC:
“I think that the number that comes out of BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] and the Department of Labor is very, very accurate. I need to make that very, very clear so that I don’t suddenly disappear. I need to make it home tonight.”
After getting that out of the way, Clifton went on to eviscerate the legitimacy of the cheerful spin given to the unemployment data, telling CNBC viewers that the percent of full time jobs in this country as a percent of the adult population “is the worst it’s been in 30 years.”
Civilian Labor Force
Series Id: LNS11000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level Labor force status: Civilian labor force Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Civilian Labor Participation Rate
Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
Series Id: LNS12000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment Level Labor force status: Employed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
|1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.|
Employment Population Ratio
Series Id: LNS12300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio Labor force status: Employment-population ratio Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
Series Id: LNS13000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level Labor force status: Unemployed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Teenage 16-19 Years Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS14000012 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate - 16-19 yrs. Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 to 19 years
U-6 Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS13327709 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployed Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over Percent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-15-0158 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, February 6, 2015 Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 • email@example.com • www.bls.gov/cps Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 • firstname.lastname@example.org • www.bls.gov/ces Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2015 NOTE: This news release was reissued on February 6, 2015, to correct data in table C for the employed (Dec.-Jan. change, after removing the population control effect). No other data were affected. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, financial activities, and manufacturing. ____________________________________________________________________________ | | | Changes to The Employment Situation Data | | | |Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual | |benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, | |household survey data for January 2015 reflect updated population estimates.| |See the notes at the end of this news release for more information about | |these changes. | |____________________________________________________________________________| Household Survey Data The unemployment rate, at 5.7 percent, changed little in January and has shown no net change since October. The number of unemployed persons, at 9.0 million, was little changed in January. (See table A-1. See the note at the end of this news release and tables B and C for information about annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers (18.8 percent) increased in January. The jobless rates for adult men (5.3 percent), adult women (5.1 percent), whites (4.9 percent), blacks (10.3 percent), Asians (4.0 percent), and Hispanics (6.7 percent) showed little or no change. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) In January, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.8 million. These individuals accounted for 31.5 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed is down by 828,000. (See table A-12.) After accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls, the civilian labor force rose by 703,000 in January. The labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9 percent, following a decline of equal magnitude in the prior month. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, increased by 435,000 in January, and the employment-population ratio was little changed at 59.3 percent. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of the population adjustments, see table C.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in January at 6.8 million. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.) In January, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 358,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) Among the marginally attached, there were 682,000 discouraged workers in January, down by 155,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, financial activities, and manufacturing. After incorporating revisions for November and December (which include the impact of the annual benchmark process), monthly job gains averaged 336,000 over the past 3 months. (See table B-1 and summary table B. See the note at the end of this news release and table A for information about the annual benchmark process.) Employment in retail trade rose by 46,000 in January. Three industries accounted for half of the jobs added--sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (+9,000); motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000); and nonstore retailers (+6,000). Construction continued to add jobs in January (+39,000). Employment increased in both residential and nonresidential building (+13,000 and +7,000, respectively). Employment continued to trend up in specialty trade contactors (+13,000). Over the prior 12 months, construction had added an average of 28,000 jobs per month. In January, health care employment increased by 38,000. Job gains occurred in offices of physicians (+13,000), hospitals (+10,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+7,000). Health care added an average of 26,000 jobs per month in 2014. Employment in financial activities rose by 26,000 in January, with insurance carriers and related activities (+14,000) and securities, commodity contracts, and investments (+5,000) contributing to the gain. Financial activities has added 159,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Manufacturing employment increased by 22,000 over the month, including job gains in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000) and wood products (+4,000). Over the past 12 months, manufacturing has added 228,000 jobs. Professional and technical services added 33,000 jobs in January, including increases in computer systems design (+8,000) and architectural and engineering services (+8,000). In January, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up (+35,000). In 2014, the industry added an average of 33,000 jobs per month. Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and government, showed little change over the month. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.6 hours in January. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 41.0 hours, and factory overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 12 cents to $24.75, following a decrease of 5 cents in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $20.80. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +353,000 to +423,000, and the change for December was revised from +252,000 to +329,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December were 147,000 higher than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions. _____________ The Employment Situation for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 6, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. (EST). Revisions to Establishment Survey Data In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2014. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which enumerates jobs covered by the unemployment insurance tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2013 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2010 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2010, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate revisions. The total nonfarm employment level for March 2014 was revised upward by 91,000 (+67,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or less than 0.05 percent). The average benchmark revision over the past 10 years was plus or minus 0.3 percent. Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2014. An article that discusses the benchmark and post-benchmark revisions and other technical issues can be accessed through the BLS website at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.pdf. Information on the data released today also may be obtained by calling (202) 691-6555. Table A. Revisions in total nonfarm employment, January-December 2014, seasonally adjusted (Numbers in thousands) __________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | Level | Over-the-month change |____________________________________|________________________________ Year and month | As | | | As | | |previously | As | Difference |previously| As | Difference |published | revised | |published | revised | ____________________|___________|___________|____________|__________|_________|___________ | | | | | | 2014 | | | | | | | | | | | | January............| 137,539 | 137,642 | 103 | 144 | 166 | 22 February...........| 137,761 | 137,830 | 69 | 222 | 188 | -34 March..............| 137,964 | 138,055 | 91 | 203 | 225 | 22 April..............| 138,268 | 138,385 | 117 | 304 | 330 | 26 May................| 138,497 | 138,621 | 124 | 229 | 236 | 7 June...............| 138,764 | 138,907 | 143 | 267 | 286 | 19 July...............| 139,007 | 139,156 | 149 | 243 | 249 | 6 August.............| 139,210 | 139,369 | 159 | 203 | 213 | 10 September..........| 139,481 | 139,619 | 138 | 271 | 250 | -21 October............| 139,742 | 139,840 | 98 | 261 | 221 | -40 November...........| 140,095 | 140,263 | 168 | 353 | 423 | 70 December (p).......| 140,347 | 140,592 | 245 | 252 | 329 | 77 ____________________|___________|___________|____________|__________|_________|___________ p = preliminary Adjustments to Population Estimates for the Household Survey Effective with data for January 2015, updated population estimates have been used in the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the previous decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics and other information, and some methodological changes in the estimation process. In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2014 and earlier months. To show the impact of the population adjustments, however, differences in selected December 2014 labor force series based on the old and new population estimates are shown in table B. The adjustments increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 528,000, the civilian labor force by 348,000, employment by 324,000, and unemployment by 24,000. The number of persons not in the labor force was increased by 179,000. The total unemployment rate, employment-population ratio, and labor force participation rate were unaffected. Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time. Table C shows the effect of the introduction of new population estimates on the comparison of selected labor force measures between December 2014 and January 2015. Additional information on the population adjustments and their effect on national labor force estimates is available at www.bls.gov/cps/cps15adj.pdf. Table B. Effect of the updated population controls on December 2014 estimates by sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, not seasonally adjusted (Numbers in thousands) _______________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | Black | | | | | | | or | | Hispanic Category |Total | Men | Women| White | African| Asian | or Latino | | | | |American| | ethnicity | | | | | | | ______________________________|______|_____|______|_______|________|_______|___________ | | | | | | | Civilian noninstitutional | | | | | | | population.................| 528 | 173 | 354 | 139 | 114 | 243 | 243 Civilian labor force......| 348 | 131 | 218 | 101 | 81 | 144 | 141 Participation rate......| .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | -.1 | .0 Employed.................| 324 | 120 | 204 | 94 | 72 | 138 | 133 Employment-population | | | | | ratio..................| .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | -.1 | .0 Unemployed...............| 24 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 Unemployment rate.......| .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 Not in labor force........| 179 | 42 | 137 | 38 | 33 | 99 | 102 ______________________________|______|_____|______|_______|________|_______|___________ NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Estimates for the above race groups (white, black or African American, and Asian) do not sum to totals because data are not presented for all races. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Table C. December 2014-January 2015 changes in selected labor force measures, with adjustments for population control effects (Numbers in thousands) ______________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | Dec.-Jan. | Dec.-Jan. | 2015 | change, | change, | population | after re- Category | as | control | moving the | published | effect | population | | | control | | | effect (1) _______________________________________|___________|____________|_____________ | | | Civilian noninstitutional population.| 696 | 528 | 168 Civilian labor force...............| 1,051 | 348 | 703 Participation rate...............| .2 | .0 | .2 Employed..........................| 759 | 324 | 435(c) Employment-population ratio......| .1 | .0 | .1 Unemployed........................| 291 | 24 | 267 Unemployment rate................| .1 | .0 | .1 Not in labor force.................| -354 | 179 | -533 _______________________________________|___________|____________|_____________ c = corrected. 1 This Dec.-Jan. change is calculated by subtracting the population control effect from the over-the-month change in the published seasonally adjusted estimates. NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. ___________________________________________________________________________ | | | Changes to The Employment Situation News Release | | | |Effective with this release, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics introduced| |several changes to The Employment Situation news release tables. | | | |Household survey table A-2 introduced seasonally adjusted series on the | |labor force characteristics of Asians. These series appear in addition to | |the not seasonally adjusted data for Asians displayed in the table. Also, | |in summary table A, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Asians | |replaced the not seasonally adjusted series that was previously displayed | |for the group. | | | |Household survey table A-3 introduced seasonally adjusted series on the | |labor force characteristics of Hispanic men age 20 and over, Hispanic women| |age 20 and over, and Hispanic teenagers age 16 to 19. The not seasonally | |adjusted series for these groups continue to be displayed in the table. | | | |The establishment survey introduced two data series: (1) total nonfarm | |employment, 3-month average change and (2) total private employment, | |3-month average change. These new series have been added to establishment | |survey summary table B. Additionally, in the employment section of summary | |table B, the list of industries has been expanded to include utilities | |(also published in table B-1). Also, hours and earnings of production and | |nonsupervisory employees were removed from summary table B, although these | |series continue to be published in establishment survey tables B-7 and B-8.| |___________________________________________________________________________|
- Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions
- Employment Situation Technical Note
- Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
- Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
- Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age
- Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
- Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status
- Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
- Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
- Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
- Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
- Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
- Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
- Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Access to historical data for the “A” tables of the Employment Situation Release
- Access to historical data for the “B” tables of the Employment Situation Release
- HTML version of the entire news release
Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
Civilian noninstitutional population
Civilian labor force
Not in labor force
Total, 16 years and over
Adult men (20 years and over)
Adult women (20 years and over)
Teenagers (16 to 19 years)
Black or African American
Hispanic or Latino ethnicity
Total, 25 years and over
Less than a high school diploma
High school graduates, no college
Some college or associate degree
Bachelor’s degree and higher
Reason for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs
Duration of unemployment
Less than 5 weeks
5 to 14 weeks
15 to 26 weeks
27 weeks and over
Employed persons at work part time
Part time for economic reasons
Slack work or business conditions
Could only find part-time work
Part time for noneconomic reasons
Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted)
Marginally attached to the labor force
– December – January changes in household data are not shown due to the introduction of updated population controls.
NOTE: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.
Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY
Mining and logging
Motor vehicles and parts
Transportation and warehousing
Professional and business services(1)
Temporary help services
Education and health services(1)
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
(3-month average change, in thousands)
WOMEN AND PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES
Total nonfarm women employees
Total private women employees
Total private production and nonsupervisory employees
HOURS AND EARNINGS
Average weekly hours
Average hourly earnings
Average weekly earnings
Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3)
Over-the-month percent change
Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4)
Over-the-month percent change
Total private (263 industries)
Manufacturing (80 industries)
NOTE: Data have been revised to reflect March 2014 benchmark levels and updated seasonal adjustment factors.
US gains strong 257K jobs, pay jumps; jobless rate 5.7 pct.
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
U.S. employers added a vigorous 257,000 jobs in January, and wages jumped by the most in six years — evidence that the job market is accelerating closer to full health.
The surprisingly robust report the government issued Friday also showed that hiring was far stronger in November and December than it had previously estimated. Employers added 414,000 jobs in November — the most in 17 years. Job growth in December was revised sharply up to 329,000 from 252,000.
Average hourly wages soared 12 cents in January to $24.75, the sharpest gain since 2008. Over the past 12 months, hourly pay, which has long been stagnant, has now risen 2.2 percent. That is ahead of inflation, which rose just 0.7 percent in 2014.
The unemployment rate last month rose to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent. But that occurred for a good reason: More than 1 million Americans — the most since January 2000 — began looking for jobs, though not all of them found work, and their numbers swelled the number of people counted as unemployed. An influx of job hunters suggests that Americans have grown more confident about their prospects.
“For the average American, it’s certainly good news — 2015 is going to be the year of the American consumer,” said Russell Price, senior economist at the financial services firm Ameriprise. “With job growth being strong, we’re going to see a pickup in wages and salaries.”
Investors immediately responded to the better-than-expected jobs figures by selling ultra-safe U.S. Treasurys, sending yields up. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.88 percent from 1.81 percent shortly before the jobs report was released.
Stock market index futures also edged higher in pre-market trading. Futures that track the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average each rose about 0.4 percent.
A sharp drop in gas prices has held down inflation and boosted Americans’ spending power. Strong hiring also tends to lift pay as employers compete for fewer workers. A big question is whether last month’s jump in wages can be sustained.
Job gains have now averaged 336,000 for the past three months, the best three-month pace in 17 years. Just a year ago, the three-month average was only 197,000.
“The labor market was about the last thing to recover from the Great Recession, and in the last six months it has picked up steam,” said Bill Hampel, chief economist at the Credit Union National Association. “The benefits for the middle class are now solidifying.”
The stepped-up hiring in January occurred across nearly all industries. Construction firms added 39,000 jobs and manufacturers 22,000. Retail jobs jumped by nearly 46,000. Hotels and restaurants added 37,100, health care 38,000.
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring wages and other job market data as it considers when to begin raising the short-term interest rate it controls from a record low near zero. The Fed has kept rates at record lows for more than six years to help stimulate growth. Most economists think the central bank will start boosting rates as early as June.
Steady economic growth has encouraged companies to keep hiring. The economy expanded at a 4.8 percent annual rate during spring and summer, the fastest six-month pace in a decade, before slowing to a still-decent 2.6 percent pace in the final three months of 2014.
There are now 3.2 million more Americans earning paychecks than there were 12 months ago. That tends to boost consumer spending, which drives about 70 percent of economic growth.
More hiring, along with sharply lower gasoline prices, has boosted Americans’ confidence and spending power. Consumer confidence jumped in January to its highest level in a decade, according to a survey by the University of Michigan. And Americans increased their spending during the final three months of last year at the fastest pace in nearly nine years.
A more confident, free-spending consumer could lend a spark that’s been missing for most of the 5½bd}-year-old economic recovery. Americans have been largely holding the line on spending and trying to shrink their debt loads. Signs that they are poised to spend more have boosted optimism that the economy will expand more than 3 percent this year for the first time in a decade.
One sector that has benefited from consumers’ increased willingness to spend has been the auto industry. Auto sales jumped 14 percent in January from the previous year, according to Autodata Corp. Last month was the best January for sales in nine years.
NET U.S. JOB GAINS SINCE THE RECESSION HAVE GONE TO FOREIGN-BORN WORKERS
In the months and years since the recession began in December 2007, foreign-born workers have experienced a net increase in employment, while native-born Americans have experienced a net loss.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated employment data Friday.
The new BLS figures reveal that since the start of the recession in 2007 — which is said to have ended in June 2009 — the number of foreign workers employed in the United States rose by 1.7 million.
In December 2007 the number of foreign-born workers was 22,810,000 by January 2009 the number has increased to 24,553,000.
Meanwhile the number of American-born workers employed decreased by 1.5 million, from 123,524,000 to 121,999,000.
While the foreign-born and American-born population experienced different statistical employment fates, both categories of adults experienced net growth.
The numbers come as Congress continues to debate a Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill that would defund President Obama’s executive amnesty, which has opened the door for millions of illegal immigrants to legally work in the United States.
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), Immigration Subcommittee Chairman, has been one of the most vocal opponents of the president’s actions and the administration’s immigration policies, which he argues harms American workers.
Friday, his office highlighted the employment discrepancies between native- and foreign- born employment.
“There are two jobs narratives: the one from the Administration, and the one lived and experienced by American workers. Fewer American workers are employed today than when the recession began. The President’s policies have profited the corporate immigration lobby and no-borders contingent, but have been only deleterious for wage-earners,” Session’s spokesman Stephen Miller emailed Breitbart News.
Miller highlighted that in addition to the annual flow of over 1.7 million permanent legal immigrants and nonimmigrant workers, as the Center for Immigration Studies recently exposed, since 2009 the administration has also provided another 5.5 million immigrants with employment authorization documents (EAD).
“What we are seeing in the BLS stats is the human fallout from the President’s actions,” Miller continued. “Figures such as these should be leading the nightly news. One of the first questions posited ought to be: will Minority Leader [Harry] Reid’s (D-NV) caucus continue to shield the issuance of 5 million more EADs for those illegally here?”
The Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate
What Is the Dual Mandate?
In 1977, Congress amended The Federal Reserve Act, stating the monetary policy objectives of the Federal Reserve as:
“The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.”
This is often called the “dual mandate” and guides the Fed’s decision-making in conducting monetary policy. On January 25, 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the principles regarding its longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy.
The statement notes that:
“The FOMC is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decision making by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.
Inflation, employment, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Moreover, monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity and prices with a lag. Therefore, the Committee’s policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.
The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee’s policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. Information about Committee participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal rates of output growth and unemployment is published four times per year in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. For example, in the most recent projections, FOMC participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment had a central tendency of 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent, roughly unchanged from last January but substantially higher than the corresponding interval several years earlier.”
Effective communications of the Committee’s objectives and economic forecasts increases the transparency, accountability, and effectiveness of policy decisions. To this end, the FOMC publishes the participants’ projections for the key economic variables and their estimates of the longer-run normal rates of output growth and unemployment four times a year in the Summary of Economic Projections. The projections are made by all FOMC participants, irrespective of whether they are voting members or not. The projections are prepared ahead of the FOMC meetings and do not necessarily reflect the discussions at the meetings that inform the FOMC’s decisions.
What Are the Dual Mandate Projections?
Inflation and Unemployment
These charts plot the current rates of inflation and unemployment, as well as the FOMC participants’ most recent projections over the next three years and in the longer run. The dots show the median forecasts for the next three years and the dashed lines give the upper and lower ranges of the central tendency of the long-run projections.
This chart plots the federal funds rate and the rate after adjusting for the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy prices. Read more…
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Federal Funds Rate Projections
In addition to its interest rate and balance sheet policies, the FOMC has enhanced its communications and increased transparency regarding its outlook, objectives and policy strategy. The dots represent individual policymakers’ projections of the appropriate federal funds rate target at the end of each of the next several years and in the longer run. It should be noted that these projections reflect the views of all the participants, irrespective of whether they are a voting member or not.
Federal Funds Rate Projections
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