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Story 2: The Economy Still Stagnating As The 10 Million Plus Jobs Gap Widens — Videos
Making Sense of Today’s January Jobs Report
February 7th 2014 CNBC Stock Market Squawk Box (January Jobs Report)
Series Id: LNS12000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment Level Labor force status: Employed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Civilian Labor Force
Labor Force Participation Rate
Series Id: LNS13000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level Labor force status: Unemployed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
Series Id: LNS12300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio Labor force status: Employment-population ratio Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
Unemployment Rate – 16-19 Yrs
Average Weeks Unemployed
Median Weeks Unemployed
Not in Labor Force, Searched for Work and Available
Series Id: LNU05026642 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Not in Labor Force, Searched For Work and Available Labor force status: Not in labor force Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Job desires/not in labor force: Want a job now Reasons not in labor force: Available to work now
Total Unemployment Rate U-6
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-14-0168 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, February 7, 2014 Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 • firstname.lastname@example.org • www.bls.gov/cps Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 • email@example.com • www.bls.gov/ces Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2014 Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Changes to the Employment Situation Data | | | |Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking | |process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data| |for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates. See the notes at the end of | |this release for more information about these changes. | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Household Survey Data Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.) (See the note and tables B and C for information about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.2 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (20.7 percent), whites (5.7 percent), blacks (12.1 percent), and Hispanics (8.4 percent) showed little change in January. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 1.7 percentage points over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.6 million, declined by 232,000 in January. These individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.1 million over the year. (See table A-12.) After accounting for the annual adjustment to the population controls, the civilian labor force rose by 499,000 in January, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.0 percent. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, increased by 616,000 over the month, and the employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 58.8 percent. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of the population adjustments, see table C.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 514,000 to 7.3 million in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.) In January, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) Among the marginally attached, there were 837,000 discouraged workers in January, about unchanged from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.8 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 113,000 in January. In 2013, employment growth averaged 194,000 per month. In January, job gains occurred in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. (See table B-1.) Construction added 48,000 jobs over the month, more than offsetting a decline of 22,000 in December. In January, job gains occurred in both residential and nonresidential building (+13,000 and +8,000, respectively) and in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+13,000). Heavy and civil engineering construction also added 10,000 jobs. Employment in manufacturing increased in January (+21,000). Over the month, job gains occurred in machinery (+7,000), wood products (+5,000), and motor vehicles and parts (+5,000). Manufacturing added an average of 7,000 jobs per month in 2013. In January, wholesale trade added 14,000 jobs, with most of the increase occurring in nondurable goods (+10,000). Mining added 7,000 jobs in January, compared with an average monthly gain of 2,000 jobs in 2013. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in January (+36,000). The industry added an average of 55,000 jobs per month in 2013. Within the industry, professional and technical services added 20,000 jobs in January. Leisure and hospitality employment continued to trend up over the month (+24,000). Job growth in the industry averaged 38,000 per month in 2013. Employment in health care was essentially unchanged in January for the second consecutive month. Health care added an average of 17,000 jobs per month in 2013. Employment in retail trade changed little in January (-13,000). Within the industry, sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores lost 22,000 jobs, offsetting job gains in the prior 3 months. In January, motor vehicle and parts dealers added 7,000 jobs. In January, federal government employment decreased by 12,000; the U.S. Postal Service accounted for most of this decline (-9,000). Employment in other major industries, including transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities, showed little or no change over the month. In January, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.2 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.5 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $24.21. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 46 cents, or 1.9 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $20.39. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +241,000 to +274,000, and the change for December was revised from +74,000 to +75,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December were 34,000 higher than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the revisions in this news release. _____________ The Employment Situation for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 7, 2014, at 8:30 a.m. (EST). Revisions to Establishment Survey Data In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2013. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which enumerates jobs covered by the UI tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2012 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2009 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2009, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate revisions. The total nonfarm employment level for March 2013 was revised upward by 369,000 (+347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or 0.3 percent). The average benchmark revision over the past 10 years was plus or minus 0.3 percent. This revision incorporates the reclassification of jobs in the QCEW. Private household employment is out of scope for the establishment survey. The QCEW reclassified some private household employment into an industry that is in scope for the establishment survey--services for the elderly and persons with disabilities. This reclassification accounted for an increase of 466,000 jobs in the establishment survey. This increase of 466,000 associated with reclassification was offset by survey error of -119,000 for a total net benchmark revision of +347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Historical time series have been reconstructed to incorporate these revisions. The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. For example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2013 was revised from 2,186,000 to 2,322,000 seasonally adjusted. Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2013. All revised historical CES data, as well as an article that discusses the benchmark and post-benchmark revisions and other technical issues can be accessed through the CES homepage at www.bls.gov/ces/. Information on the data released today also may be obtained by calling (202) 691-6555. Table A. Revisions in total nonfarm employment, January-December 2013, seasonally adjusted (Numbers in thousands) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | Level | Over-the-month change |--------------------------------------------------------------------- Year and month | As | | | As | | |previously | As | Difference |previously| As | Difference |published | revised | |published | revised | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | | | | 2013 | | | | | | | | | | | | January............| 134,839 | 135,261 | 422 | 148 | 197 | 49 February...........| 135,171 | 135,541 | 370 | 332 | 280 | -52 March..............| 135,313 | 135,682 | 369 | 142 | 141 | -1 April..............| 135,512 | 135,885 | 373 | 199 | 203 | 4 May................| 135,688 | 136,084 | 396 | 176 | 199 | 23 June...............| 135,860 | 136,285 | 425 | 172 | 201 | 29 July...............| 135,949 | 136,434 | 485 | 89 | 149 | 60 August.............| 136,187 | 136,636 | 449 | 238 | 202 | -36 September..........| 136,362 | 136,800 | 438 | 175 | 164 | -11 October............| 136,562 | 137,037 | 475 | 200 | 237 | 37 November...........| 136,803 | 137,311 | 508 | 241 | 274 | 33 December (p).......| 136,877 | 137,386 | 509 | 74 | 75 | 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ p = preliminary Adjustments to Population Estimates for the Household Survey Effective with data for January 2014, updated population estimates have been used in the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the previous decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics and other information, and some methodological changes in the estimation process. In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2013 and earlier months. To show the impact of the population adjustments, however, differences in selected December 2013 labor force series based on the old and new population estimates are shown in table B. The adjustments increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 2,000, the civilian labor force by 24,000, employment by 22,000, and unemployment by 2,000. The number of persons not in the labor force was reduced by 22,000. The total unemployment rate, employment-population ratio, and labor force participation rate were unaffected. Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time. Table C shows the effect of the introduction of new population estimates on the comparison of selected labor force measures between December 2013 and January 2014. Additional information on the population adjustments and their effect on national labor force estimates is available at www.bls.gov/cps/cps14adj.pdf. Table B. Effect of the updated population controls on December 2013 estimates by sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, not seasonally adjusted (Numbers in thousands) __________________________________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | | | | | | | Black | | | | | | | or | | Hispanic Category | Total| Men | Women| White | African| Asian | or Latino | | | | |American| | ethnicity | | | | | | | ________________________________________|______|_____|______|_______|________|_______|____________ | | | | | | | Civilian noninstitutional population..| 2 | 29 | -27 | -65 | 48 | 33 | -57 Civilian labor force................| 24 | 24 | 0 | -17 | 34 | 15 | -38 Participation rate................| .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 Employed...........................| 22 | 22 | 0 | -16 | 31 | 14 | -34 Employment-population ratio.......| .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 Unemployed.........................| 2 | 3 | -1 | -1 | 4 | 1 | -4 Unemployment rate.................| .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 Not in labor force..................| -22 | 4 | -27 | -48 | 14 | 18 | -18 ________________________________________|______|_____|______|_______|________|_______|____________ NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Estimates for the above race groups (white, black or African American, and Asian) do not sum to totals because data are not presented for all races. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Table C. December 2013-January 2014 changes in selected labor force measures, with adjustments for population control effects (Numbers in thousands) ______________________________________________________________________________ | | | | | | Dec.-Jan. | Dec.-Jan. | 2014 | change, | change, | population | after re- Category | as | control | moving the | published | effect | population | | | control | | | effect (1) _______________________________________|___________|____________|_____________ | | | Civilian noninstitutional population.| 170 | 2 | 168 Civilian labor force...............| 523 | 24 | 499 Participation rate...............| .2 | .0 | .2 Employed..........................| 638 | 22 | 616 Employment-population ratio......| .2 | .0 | .2 Unemployed........................| -115 | 2 | -117 Unemployment rate................| -.1 | .0 | -.1 Not in labor force.................| -353 | -22 | -331 _______________________________________|___________|____________|_____________ (1) This Dec.-Jan. change is calculated by subtracting the population control effect from the over-the-month change in the published seasonally adjusted estimates. NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | Change to the Household Survey Tables | | | |Effective with this release, household survey table A-10 includes two new seasonally| |adjusted series for women age 55 and over--the number of unemployed persons and the | |unemployment rate. These replace the series that were previously displayed for this | |group, which were not seasonally adjusted. | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | Updated Veteran Weighting Methodology for Household Survey | | | |Beginning with data for January 2014, estimates for veterans in table A-5 of this | |release incorporate updated weighting procedures. The new weighting methodology more| |accurately reflects the current demographic composition of the veteran population. | |The primary impact of the change was an increase in the "Gulf War-era I" veteran | |population and a decrease in the number of veterans in the "Other service periods" | |category. The updated methodology had little effect on unemployment rates for | |veterans, regardless of gender or period of service. Additional information on the | |effect of the change on labor force estimates for veterans is available at | |www.bls.gov/cps/vetsweights2014.pdf. | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions
- Employment Situation Technical Note
- Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
- Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
- Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age
- Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
- Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status
- Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
- Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
- Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
- Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
- Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
- Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
- Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
- Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
- Access to historical data for the “A” tables of the Employment Situation Release
- Access to historical data for the “B” tables of the Employment Situation Release
- HTML version of the entire news release
Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
2014Employment status Civilian noninstitutional population244,663246,567246,745246,915-Civilian labor force155,699155,284154,937155,460-Participation rate63.663.062.863.0-Employed143,384144,443144,586145,224-Employment-population ratio58.658.658.658.8-Unemployed12,31510,84110,35110,236-Unemployment rate7.97.06.76.6-Not in labor force88,96391,28391,80891,455- Unemployment rates Total, 16 years and over7.97.06.76.6-Adult men (20 years and over)188.8.131.52.2-Adult women (20 years and over)7.26.26.05.9-Teenagers (16 to 19 years)23.520.820.220.7-White184.108.40.206.7-Black or African American13.812.411.912.1-Asian (not seasonally adjusted)220.127.116.11.8-Hispanic or Latino ethnicity18.104.22.168.4- Total, 25 years and over22.214.171.124.4-Less than a high school diploma12.010.69.89.6-High school graduates, no college126.96.36.199.5-Some college or associate degree7.06.46.16.0-Bachelor’s degree and higher188.8.131.52.2- Reason for unemployment Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs6,6755,7315,3665,407-Job leavers984890862818-Reentrants3,5203,0653,0362,937-New entrants1,2741,1691,2011,184- Duration of unemployment Less than 5 weeks2,7532,4392,2552,434-5 to 14 weeks3,0772,5852,5062,429-15 to 26 weeks1,8671,7421,6511,689-27 weeks and over4,7074,0443,8783,646- Employed persons at work part time Part time for economic reasons7,9837,7237,7717,257-Slack work or business conditions5,1174,8694,8844,405-Could only find part-time work2,6132,4992,5922,571-Part time for noneconomic reasons18,55618,85818,73119,165- Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted) Marginally attached to the labor force2,4432,0962,4272,592-Discouraged workers804762917837– December – January changes in household data are not shown due to the introduction of updated population controls.
NOTE: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.
Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
|EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY
(Over-the-month change, in thousands)
|Mining and logging||3||1||1||7|
|Motor vehicles and parts||3.5||4.7||3.3||4.7|
|Transportation and warehousing||9.8||32.4||10.6||9.9|
|Professional and business services(1)||45||73||4||36|
|Temporary help services||4.9||36.6||30.1||8.1|
|Education and health services(1)||17||25||-4||-6|
|Health care and social assistance||23.5||24.4||1.1||1.5|
|Leisure and hospitality||47||37||20||24|
|WOMEN AND PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES(2)
AS A PERCENT OF ALL EMPLOYEES
|Total nonfarm women employees||49.4||49.5||49.5||49.4|
|Total private women employees||48.0||48.0||48.0||47.9|
|Total private production and nonsupervisory employees||82.6||82.6||82.6||82.6|
|HOURS AND EARNINGS
|Average weekly hours||34.4||34.5||34.4||34.4|
|Average hourly earnings||$23.75||$24.15||$24.16||$24.21|
|Average weekly earnings||$817.00||$833.18||$831.10||$832.82|
|Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3)||97.5||99.6||99.4||99.5|
|Over-the-month percent change||0.2||0.5||-0.2||0.1|
|Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4)||110.5||114.8||114.6||114.9|
|Over-the-month percent change||0.4||0.8||-0.2||0.3|
|HOURS AND EARNINGS
PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES
|Average weekly hours||33.6||33.7||33.5||33.5|
|Average hourly earnings||$19.95||$20.30||$20.33||$20.39|
|Average weekly earnings||$670.32||$684.11||$681.06||$683.07|
|Index of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)||104.9||107.1||106.6||106.7|
|Over-the-month percent change||-0.2||0.5||-0.5||0.1|
|Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2002=100)(4)||139.8||145.3||144.8||145.3|
|Over-the-month percent change||0.1||0.8||-0.3||0.3|
(Over 1-month span)
|Total private (264 industries)||64.0||66.9||56.4||61.2|
|Manufacturing (81 industries)||56.8||65.4||59.9||54.3|
(1) Includes other industries, not shown separately.
(2) Data relate to production employees in mining and logging and manufacturing, construction employees in construction, and nonsupervisory employees in the service-providing industries.
(3) The indexes of aggregate weekly hours are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate hours by the corresponding annual average aggregate hours.
(4) The indexes of aggregate weekly payrolls are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate weekly payrolls by the corresponding annual average aggregate weekly payrolls.
(5) Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
|NOTE: Data have been revised to reflect March 2013 benchmark levels and updated seasonal adjustment factors.|
Weakness Continues as 113,000 Jobs Are Added in January
Employers added jobs at a slower-than-expected pace in January, the second month in a row that hiring has been disappointing and a sign that the labor market remains anemic despite indications of growth elsewhere in the economy.
Payrolls increased by 113,000, the Labor Department reported Friday morning, well below the gain of 180,000 that economists expected. The unemployment rate, based on a separate survey of households that was more encouraging, actually fell by a tenth of a percentage point, to 6.6 percent.
The data for January come after an even more disappointing report on the labor market for December, which was revised upward only slightly Friday, to show a gain of just 75,000 jobs, from 74,000. The level of hiring in January was also substantially below the average monthly gain of 178,000 positions over the last six months, as well as the monthly addition of 187,000 over the last year.
The two weak months in a row will prompt questions about whether the Federal Reserve acted prematurely when policy makers in December voted to begin scaling back the central bank’s expansive stimulus efforts.
The new data is not expected to alter the Fed’s course, economists said, but another poor report on hiring next month might force policy makers to rethink their plan when they next meet in late March.
“In one line: grim,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note to clients Friday morning.
While seasonal adjustments may have played a role and upward revisions for hiring in October and November were more encouraging, he said, “The payroll rebound clearly is disappointing; none of the ground lost in December was recovered.”
Other economists conceded the picture for January was hardly bright, but cautioned it was too soon to conclude there had been a fundamental loss of momentum in the economy, especially given seasonal fluctuations in the data and the possibility that weather inhibited some hiring.
“We’re not seeing the takeoff that people wanted to see, but it’s not a disaster,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas. “The 113,000 figure is definitely way below trend, but we want another month or two of data before we can draw conclusions.”
One mystery economists will be focusing on is why employment gains have not kept up with economic growth as measured by gross domestic product, which picked up substantially in the second half of 2013. The annualized pace of expansion was 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter, and 4.1 percent in the third quarter.
One reason may be that new technologies are allowing employers to make do with fewer workers, for instance the use of automated customer service systems instead of call centers, or Internet retailers’ taking over from brick-and-mortar stores where sales associates prowl the floors.
Another shift is evident from the yawning gap in employment for college graduates versus workers who lack a high school diploma. For people with a college degree or higher, the jobless rate was 3.1 percent, compared with 9.6 percent for Americans who did not finish high school.
Wintry conditions that held back hiring were blamed for the weakness in December, a theory popular among more optimistic economists after those numbers came out in early January.
But despite what seems like an endless series of snowstorms on the East Coast and arctic conditions in the Midwest recently, the reference week for the latest survey was Jan. 12-18, when conditions were fairly normal as Januaries go, limiting some of the impact of the weather in this report.
In the report on January, one sector holding back payrolls was the government, which shrank by 29,000 jobs in January. Excluding that loss, private employers added 142,000 positions, a slightly better showing.
Several other sectors which had been strong in recent months – education and health care as well as retailing – also lost positions, contributing to the overall weakness.
The falloff in hiring in the health care sector was especially notable. In December and January together, just 2,600 health care positions were filled. By contrast, as recently as November, nearly 25,000 health care workers were added to payrolls.
Although this area of the economy is going through a transformation as President Obama’s new health care plan is slowly introduced, that is unlikely to have caused the abrupt slowdown in hiring, said Ethan Harris, a head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If anything, he said, the law should create new jobs in the sector as health care coverage is expanded, even if higher costs for some employers result in job cuts elsewhere in the economy.
As for retail, which lost nearly 13,000 jobs in January, some of that reduction could have essentially been because of excessive hiring in December, Mr. Harris said, when stores added nearly 63,000 positions as the holiday shopping season peaked. The cuts may also have been spurred by weak results at some retailers, with chains like J. C. Penney announcing major job cuts last month, and Loehmann’s, the venerable discounter, now in liquidation.
The employment-population ratio, which has been falling as more workers drop out of the job market, edged up 0.2 percentage points to 58.8 percent. In recent years, the exit of people from the work force has reduced the unemployment rate, but it is a sign that people are giving up hope of finding a job in the face of slack conditions, hardly the way policy makers would like to see joblessness come down.
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Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2013 (advance estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4
and “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 5). The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based
on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2014.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory
investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions
from federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected a deceleration in private inventory
investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, a downturn in residential fixed
investment, and decelerations in state and local government spending and in nonresidential fixed
investment that were partly offset by accelerations in exports and in PCE and a deceleration in imports.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third.
FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2009)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 2.0 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 5.9 percent, compared with an
increase of 7.9 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9
percent. Services increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 4.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.2 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 13.4 percent. Equipment increased 6.9 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.
Intellectual property products increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 5.8 percent. Real
residential fixed investment decreased 9.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 10.3 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 11.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 3.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 0.9 percent,
compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 12.6 percent
in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased
14.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.5 percent. Nondefense decreased 10.3 percent, compared
with a decrease of 3.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 0.42 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change
in real GDP after adding 1.67 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $127.2 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $115.7 billion in the
third quarter and $56.6 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — increased 2.8
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases — purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced — increased 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $69.4 billion (2.0 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $140.0 billion (4.0 percent) in the third. The deceleration in personal
income primarily reflected downturns in personal dividend income and in farm proprietors’ income and
a deceleration in personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by an acceleration in wages
Personal current taxes increased $23.7 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of
$11.0 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $45.7 billion (1.5 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of $151.0 billion (5.0 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income increased
0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in the third.
Personal outlays increased $118.6 billion (4.0 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $113.4 billion (3.9 percent) in the third. Personal saving — disposable personal income less
personal outlays — was $545.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $618.0 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was
4.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board’s financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to
Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the nation’s output of goods and services — increased
4.6 percent, or $189.6 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $17,102.5 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 6.2 percent, or $251.9 billion.
Real GDP increased 1.9 percent in 2013 (that is, from the 2012 annual level to the 2013 annual
level), compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in 2012.
The increase in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment,
and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal
government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected a deceleration in nonresidential fixed
investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in PCE and in exports
that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and a smaller decrease in state and local government
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in 2013, compared with an
increase of 1.7 percent in 2012.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $558.4 billion, in 2013, compared with an increase
of 4.6 percent, or $710.8 billion, in 2012.
During 2013 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013) real
GDP increased 2.7 percent. Real GDP increased 2.0 percent during 2012. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent during 2013, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in
BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA’s Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
“Key Source Data and Assumptions” file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis
of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on
Survey of Current Business, “GDP and the Economy.” For information on revisions, see “Revisions to GDP, GDI,
and Their Major Components.”
BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting
the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release — February 28, 2014 at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2013 (Second Estimate)
* * *
Release dates in 2014
Gross Domestic Product
2013: IV and 2013 annual 2014: I 2014: II 2014: III
Advance… January 30 April 30 July 30 October 30
Second…. February 28 May 29 August 28 November 25
Third….. March 27 June 25 September 26 December 23
Preliminary… …… May 29 August 28 November 25
Revised……. March 27 June 25 September 26 December 23
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: the “advance” estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The “latest”” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.3 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of
compared regard to sign revisions without
regard to sign
Advance to second……………….. 0.2 0.5 0.4
Advance to third………………… .2 .7 .4
Second to third…………………. .0 .3 .2
Advance to latest……………….. .3 1.3 1.0
Advance to second……………….. 0.1 0.5 0.4
Advance to third………………… .1 .6 .4
Second to third…………………. .0 .2 .2
Advance to latest……………….. .3 1.3 1.0
NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2010.http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm