U.S. Dirty Debt Bomb Exploding — The First Shock Wave Hits — National Debt Increases Record $328 Billion in One Day — National Debt Over $17 Trillion — By February Will Hit $17.5 Trillion — Videos

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Pronk Pops Show 152: October 18, 2013

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Segment 0: U.S. Dirty Debt Bomb Exploding  — The First Shock Wave Hits — National Debt Increases Record $328 Billion in One Day — National Debt Over $17 Trillion — By February Will Hit $17.5 Trillion — Videos

U.S. Debt Clock

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Not Raising Debt Ceiling Won’t Put U.S. In Default – Ron Paul

tom_a_coburn_the_debt_bomb

Tom Coburn Tears Credit Card Poster On Senate Floor

GOP Sen. Tom Coburn Rips Up US Government Credit Card on TV, Gretchen Carlson Thanks Him

Coburn on Greatest Threat Facing the Country: Our Debt

Dr. Coburn addressing his colleagues in the Senate today, warning Congress of the dire consequences that will ensue if politics in Washington continues as usual: “Our country has a history of doing hard things. What we lack is leadership to call us to do those hard things. We find ourselves at a point in time where the greatest threat to our nation is our debt and our economy. We’re risking our future, not only our future economically but our future of liberty.”

Dr. Coburn on Charlie Rose on US Debt Crisis, Leadership Deficit in Washington

Senator Tom Coburn: Two Years Till Severe Debt Crisis

Senator Tom Coburn on the “Debt Bomb”

The Debt Bomb book Glenn Beck w/ Senator Tom Coburn on GBTV Stop Washington from Bankrupting America

Debt Ceiling, Gold, and Janet Yellen – Hype vs. Reality

“US’ DEBT BOMB CLOCK” IS TICKING!

Peter Schiff – Debt Ceiling Not The Problem; It’s the Lending Ceiling

Peter Schiff The Reality Is We’re Living In A Bubble And ALL

Bubbles Burst

[youtub3e=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCISlJ_qOtU]

Obama Lies About the Implications of Raising the Debt Ceiling

USA: A Nation In Debt- A Ticking Time Bomb

Will Higher Tax Rates Balance the Budget?

How Raising Taxes Will Not Balance the Budget: More Evidence

U.S. debt jumps $300 billion — tops $17 trillion for first time

Does Government Have a Revenue or Spending Problem?

What If the National Debt Were Your Debt?

What Are the Dangers of Too Much Debt?

Why Not Print More Money?

How to Fix Our Fiscal Crisis

How Big Is the U.S. Debt?

Uploaded on Feb 11, 2011

For more details on the total Federal debt, start on slide 35 of this PowerPoint presentation: http://www.antolin-davies.com/present…

Economics professor Antony Davies illustrates the size the U.S. federal government’s debt and unfunded obligations. He breaks down the total U.S. debt and obligations into parts and compares them with the size of the GDP of countries around the world, showing the magnitude of America’s fiscal situation.

Want to give that graph a closer look? Prof. Davies has made it available on his website here:
http://www.antolin-davies.com/convent…

By Stephen Dinan

U.S. debt jumped more than $300 billion on Thursday, the first day the federal government was able to borrow money under the deal President Obama and Congress sealed this week.

The debt now equals $17.075 trillion, according to figures the Treasury Department posted online on Friday.

The $328 billion increase is an all-time record, shattering the previous high of $238 billion set two years ago.

The giant jump comes because the government was replenishing its stock of “extraordinary measures” — the federal funds it borrowed from over the last five months as it tried to avoid bumping into the debt ceiling.

Under the law, that replenishing happens as soon as there is new debt space.

In this case, the Treasury Department borrowed $400 billion from other funds beginning in May, awaiting a final deal from Congress and Mr. Obama.

Usually Congress sets a borrowing limit, or debt ceiling, that caps the total amount the government can be in the red.

But under the terms of this week’s deal, Congress set a deadline instead of a dollar cap. That means debt can rise as much as Mr. Obama and Congress want it to, until the Feb. 7 deadline.

Judging by the rate of increase over the last five months, that could end up meaning Congress just granted Mr. Obama a debt increase of $700 billion or more.

Republicans initially sought to attach strings to the debt increase, but surrendered this week, instead settling on a bill that reopened the government and included some special earmark projects, but didn’t include any spending cuts.

Democrats insisted that the debt increase be “clean,” meaning without any strings attached. They say the debt increase only allows Mr. Obama to pay for the bills he and Congress already racked up, and that it doesn’t encourage new spending.

U.S. debt jumped more than $300 billion on Thursday, the first day the federal government was able to borrow money under the deal President Obama and Congress sealed this week.

The debt now equals $17.075 trillion, according to figures the Treasury Department posted online on Friday.

The $328 billion increase is an all-time record, shattering the previous high of $238 billion set two years ago.

The giant jump comes because the government was replenishing its stock of “extraordinary measures” — the federal funds it borrowed from over the last five months as it tried to avoid bumping into the debt ceiling.

Under the law, that replenishing happens as soon as there is new debt space.

In this case, the Treasury Department borrowed $400 billion from other funds beginning in May, awaiting a final deal from Congress and Mr. Obama.

Usually Congress sets a borrowing limit, or debt ceiling, that caps the total amount the government can be in the red.

But under the terms of this week’s deal, Congress set a deadline instead of a dollar cap. That means debt can rise as much as Mr. Obama and Congress want it to, until the Feb. 7 deadline.

Judging by the rate of increase over the last five months, that could end up meaning Congress just granted Mr. Obama a debt increase of $700 billion or more.

Republicans initially sought to attach strings to the debt increase, but surrendered this week, instead settling on a bill that reopened the government and included some special earmark projects, but didn’t include any spending cuts.

Democrats insisted that the debt increase be “clean,” meaning without any strings attached. They say the debt increase only allows Mr. Obama to pay for the bills he and Congress already racked up, and that it doesn’t encourage new spending.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/18/us-debt-jumps-400-billion-tops-17-trillion-first-t/

Analysis: Debt fight dings U.S. Treasury bills’ status

By Richard Leong

(Reuters) – The safe-haven reputation of U.S. Treasury bills took a beating during the latest debt ceiling fight in Washington, and it won’t be regained soon, even after the last-minute deal to avert a threatened default.

The temporary agreement to lift the government’s debt limit may only pave the way for another political struggle between President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers in early 2014 over the federal budget and borrowing levels.

While others measure the toll on the economy from the 16-day federal government shutdown, Wall Street is fretting over the future appetite for U.S. debt and its effect on federal borrowing costs.

During the next three-and-a-half months before the next debt ceiling deadline, the U.S. government might pay higher interest rates on its short-term debt.

Before the shutdown, the Treasury was selling one-month debt at next to nothing. The rise in yields as a result of the crisis will cost the Treasury an estimated $56 million more in interest payments than it would have incurred had this month’s auctions been sold in September.

While some one-month T-bill rates saw their yields decline to 0.02 to 0.03 percent after jumping above 0.70 percent less than 24 hours earlier, bills maturing in February still showed modestly elevated yields. If Washington repeats the battle that ended on Wednesday, bill rates would likely jump again.

“There’s a fundamental change in their risk profile. There’s a growing lack of confidence. It’s going to be problematic,” said Tom Nelson, chief investment officer at Reich & Tang, a New York-based cash management firm that oversees more than $33 billion in assets.

Investors are frustrated that they are forced to shun certain T-bill issues because of the self-imposed fiscal deadlines of politicians. Some of them want additional compensation to buy T-bills given the possibility of default every few months, even though most think the risk is very low.

Chances of a default seemed almost unfathomable three weeks ago before the debt ceiling showdown that accompanied the first partial government shutdown in 17 years.

“The reason you’re holding short Treasuries is because of their unparalleled safety and liquidity. If you’re not getting safety and liquidity, there’s no point in having them,” said Gregory Whiteley, who manages a $53 billion government bond portfolio at DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles.

Before the political impasse ended, interest rates on T-bill issues set to mature in the second half of October through the first half of November hit five-year highs.

“This is the kind of volatility we have never seen. I’m afraid this will get worse and worse,” Reich’s Nelson said.

DEFAULT SKITTISHNESS

The surge in T-bill rates stemmed partly from major money market fund operators, including Fidelity, JPMorgan, BlackRock and PIMCO, dumping their holdings of T-bill issues that mature in the next four weeks because they were seen most vulnerable if the government did not raise the debt ceiling in time.

Reich’s Nelson took more drastic action.

He said he cleared his funds of all T-bills that mature between now and the end of the year and did not jump back to buy them, even after President Obama signed the debt ceiling deal into law before midnight.

In the meantime, default anxiety caused retail investors to rush to redeem their money fund shares.

Money funds posted their biggest weekly outflows in nearly a year, as assets fell $44.77 billion to $2.606 trillion in the week ended October 15, according to iMoneynet’s Money Fund Report.

The asset drop, while large, was still much less than the $103.21 billion plunge in the week ended August 2, 2011 during the first debt ceiling showdown between the White House and top Republican lawmakers.

COST OF A SHORT-TERM DEAL

A pick-up in interest costs, if it persists, would be a setback for the government as its deficit has been shrinking.

“There are costs associated with going through this each time, costs embedded into Treasuries securities, costs the Treasury has to incur in higher risk premiums at auction,” said Rob Toomey, associate general counsel at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), on a call with reporters on Wednesday.

Bidding at last week’s one-month T-bill sale was the weakest since March 2009. Demand at this week’s bill auctions improved on hopes of a debt agreement, but interest rates remained higher than where they were almost three weeks ago.

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday warned it might strip the United States of its top AAA-rating due to the debt ceiling fight.

“This highlights the risk in the United States. It’s not good for investors. If investors want to diversify from the U.S., this gives them a reason to,” said Brian Edmonds, head of rates trading at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

Skittishness in owning T-bills hurt Wall Street firms too. The 21 primary dealers, those top-tier investment banks that do business directly with the U.S. Federal Reserve, are required to buy the debt issued by the government at auctions.

“There are too much uncertainties. That’s dangerous especially if you are a primary dealer when you have to underwrite Treasury debt,” said Edmonds.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/17/us-usa-fiscal-debtrisk-analysis-idUSBRE99G12R20131017

Debt ceiling 101: What you need to know

By Alexandra Thomas

If you’ve kept up with U.S. news at all lately, you might’ve heard this: If Congress and the White House cannot reach a deal on the debt ceiling crisis by October 17, the U.S. government won’t have enough money to pay its bills. That sounds pretty scary — especially if you’re not quite sure what it all means.

So what exactly is the debt ceiling, anyway? And how can it affect you?

The debt ceiling crisis is not the same as the partial government shutdown

Yes, it’s confusing to other people as well. Two very complicated crises are happening in Washington simultaneously, and both are happening because lawmakers cannot come to an agreement.

The government shut down because lawmakers couldn’t agree on a deal to fund the government before the start of the new fiscal year. The debt ceiling refers to debt outstanding — bills for which the government has already approved the spending and has already committed to paying.

The shutdown only slightly changes the government’s payment schedule. When the government is closed, the number of daily payments the Department of the Treasury needs to make decreases, since many things are closed. But even during the shutdown, the U.S. government is still required to make a lot of other payments, including Social Security, Medicare and interest on the debt. And these are big payments that may impact the livelihood of millions of Americans.

The Treasury Department says if the limit (the debt ceiling) isn’t raised, the government could default on the bills it owes, which could then lead to a financial crisis similar to the events of 2008.

What is the debt ceiling?

The debt ceiling is the borrowing limit that Congress has set for itself as a way to control government spending. The difference between the amount of money the U.S. government takes in and the amount of money it spends each year is called the deficit. The ongoing deficit then adds up to the overall debt.

Congress usually approves more spending than it collects in tax revenue, so the Treasury has to borrow the rest of the money from other government accounts and by issuing IOUs, in order to pay those bills. Congress sets a cap on how much debt the government can have — called the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the Treasury can borrow, and right now that limit is set at about $16.699 trillion.

Interactive: What’s up with the debt ceiling?

The U.S. government can borrow that amount, and no more, unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling.

In May, the government actually reached that limit, but over the past few months, the Treasury has been able to shuffle money around from various accounts to avoid taking on any more debt. That luxury is about to go away.

According to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, the government will soon run out of money, except for about $30 billion, and the Treasury will either need to increase revenue or take on more debt — or it won’t be able to pay certain bills.

How the government funds its spending

The government funds its spending in two ways: taxes and borrowing. The government borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds, or IOUs. When someone buys a Treasury bond, they’re basically lending the government money and racking up interest on the loan, which the government pays each month. On October 17, the government owes an interest payment of about $13 billion — the first payment the government won’t be able to make without raising the debt ceiling.

The cap on borrowing applies to debt owed to the public, anyone who buys Treasury bonds and debt owed to federal government trust funds — such as those set up for Social Security and Medicare.

After October 17, the government will only be bringing in enough money to pay about 68% of its bills, according to a recent survey by the Bipartisan Policy Center. According to the center’s analysis, beginning on October 18, the Treasury will be about $106 billion short of making the $328 billion in payments that are already scheduled through November 15. Normally, when the debts are due, the government just issues new debts (by selling bonds), however if the government doesn’t have the full amounts it owes, certain payments will be delayed.

Who would be impacted if the government goes into default?

The government typically spends, or owes, about $10 billion per day for various things. And if the government can’t make those payments, the first people to be affected will be people who get pay or benefits from the government. That includes members of the military and people who receive benefits such as Social Security and Medicare. Here’s a breakdown of the dates when the government is supposed to pay some of its biggest bills:

Oct. 23: $12 billion in Social Security payments.

Oct. 31: $6 billion in interest on its debt.

Nov. 1: $58 billion in Social Security payments, disability benefits, Medicare payments, military pay and retiree pay.

So what happens if the government can’t pay those bills?

Ideally, the government would be able to prioritize which bills it pays first, but that’s not a realistic possibility because of how the Treasury payment system works. The Treasury issues about 100 million monthly payments through a computer system, which pays the bills automatically as they come due, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. So, no one knows which checks will be issued at exactly what time. And if it begins making payments it doesn’t have the money for, checks will start bouncing. It’s just unclear at this point which ones would bounce.

So the government could pay some bills in full and delay others, or, it could delay all bills until it has enough money to pay each day’s bills in full. The problem with delaying them all is that, with each day that goes by, the total amount the government owes will continue to increase drastically.

Some federal contractors may accept an IOU, with higher interest, but people who depend on Social Security checks on a regular basis probably won’t want an IOU from the government that’s worth nothing right now. Plus, if the government misses a payment to bondholders, that could impact the stability of the U.S. bond market and confidence in the U.S. dollar.

If some payments are delayed, people could get payments, like Social Security checks, a few weeks late.

So what’s next?

Economists say missing the debt ceiling deadline won’t trigger an immediate recession. However, the longer Congress waits, the worse the problem could get.

According to Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at accounting firm Cohn Reznick, “Merely missing the debt ceiling deadline will not trigger a recession, but the risks will rise rapidly with each week after the deadline passes.”

Congress could agree on a short-term increase of the debt ceiling to allow the government to pay its bills, but a longer-term agreement must be reached eventually.

http://www.hlntv.com/article/2013/10/10/what-debt-ceiling-deadline-congress

BPC’s Debt Limit Projection: Key Takeaways

Unless the debt limit is increased, there will come a point when Treasury does not have enough cash to pay all bills in full and on time

On September 10, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) released its comprehensive debt limit analysis for fall 2013. On May 19 of this year, the debt limit was reinstated at a new, higher level, after having been suspended since February. Upon its reinstatement, the U.S. found itself up against the debt limit with the Treasury Department continuing to operate through the limited borrowing authority provided by extraordinary measures.

In July, BPC had projected that the X Date – the point at which extraordinary measures and cash on hand are exhausted and Treasury can no longer meet all federal financial obligations in full and on time – would be reached between mid-October and mid-November. With updated government financial data and a more extensive analysis of daily transactions that will occur in September, October, and November, BPC has narrowed that projected window to October 18 – November 5. This range will be regularly updated in the coming weeks, as warranted by the data.

We have already hit the debt limit. The U.S. officially reached its statutory borrowing limit of about $16.699 trillion on May 19, 2013. (Technically, Treasury has stayed $25 million below the actual limit of $16,699,421,000,000 since that time). To raise additional funds for paying the nation’s obligations beyond that date, the Treasury Secretary has been using some of the approximately $303 billion in available extraordinary measures. As of August 31, roughly $108 billion of these measures remained. Unless the debt limit is increased, eventually there will come a point when Treasury does not have enough cash to pay all bills in full and on time, and the government will be forced to default on some of its obligations. BPC refers to this date as the “X Date.”

BPC now projects that the “X Date” will occur between October 18 and November 5. This represents a range, which can be thought of as a confidence interval. A more precise estimate is not yet appropriate due to the volatility of revenue and the nature of the government’s financial obligations leading up to and during this period. Furthermore, even BPC’s estimated range for the X Date is a projection, which is subject to some uncertainty. The most significant sources of uncertainty are the quarterly tax payments due in mid-September, which tend to be volatile, along with general economic conditions. While federal government revenue has been strong compared to the previous fiscal year – coinciding with greater employment, increased corporate earnings, and slow-but-steady economic growth – there is no guarantee that these trends will continue.

How will Treasury make payments on or after the X Date? We don’t know. This would be an unprecedented situation. If the X Date arrived on October 18 (the start of BPC’s X-Date window), we project that Treasury would be $106 billion short of making $328 billion in scheduled payments through November 15, meaning that 32 percent of those obligations would go unpaid.

In one scenario, Treasury might prioritize some payments over others; our full report provides an illustrative example. Treasury, however, may not find that it has the legal authority or the technical capability to do this (because such prioritization could require extensive reprogramming of computer systems, which may not be possible in a short timeframe). An alternative approach would be for Treasury to wait until enough revenue is collected to make an entire day’s worth of payments at a time, meaning that all payments would be made in turn, but everyone anticipating funds from the government would see delays. While payment delays would be short in the beginning (one or two days), they would quickly cascade. If Treasury were to delay payments in this manner, and the X Date were reached on October 18, for example, Social Security payments due on November 1 would not be received by beneficiaries until November 13.

In any scenario, we assume that Treasury would do whatever it could to ensure that interest on the debt is paid in full and on time.

Substantial debt is scheduled to roll over after the X Date. From October 18 through November 15, over $370 billion in debt is expected to mature. Normally, this would be rolled over in a standard procedure by issuing new debt. Uncertainty surrounding the debt limit, however, could force Treasury to pay higher interest rates on this newly issued debt. Also, while very unlikely, there is a possibility that in a post-X Date environment, Treasury may not have sufficient buyers to complete its standard auction operation.

How much would the debt limit need to be increased in order to get through next year? BPC has projected the magnitude of the debt limit increase necessary to enable Treasury to meet all obligations through calendar year 2014. An increase of approximately $1.1 trillion would be required. There is a great amount of uncertainty in this estimate, however, given the amount of time that is covered.

Expect more updates. BPC will continue to update and refine our X-Date estimates as new information becomes available. To learn more, view our full report.

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/2013/09/10/bpc%E2%80%99s-debt-limit-projection-key-takeaways

Dollar Slips as Fed Worries Continue

Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Focus on Effects of Government Shutdown

By

MICHELE MAATOUK

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to keep its easy-money policies in place for longer following the partial U.S. government shutdown pushed the dollar close to its lowest point of the year against the euro and U.S. Treasury debt prices to their highest point since July.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note, which move inversely to prices, touched 2.538%, the lowest level since July 24, according to CQG. The dollar continued its slide against major rivals, including the euro, the yen and the pound. The euro recently bought $1.3686 from $1.3676 late Thursday, while the pound fetched $1.6186 from $1.6165. The greenback traded at ¥97.71 from ¥97.93.

The drop in the dollar and the rise in Treasury debt prices were set in train earlier this week after lawmakers reached a temporary solution to raise the so-called debt ceiling, showing that investors doubt the Fed can start to reel in its stimulus measures—a process dubbed tapering—for as long as economic performance and data is compromised by the now-ended shutdown, and as long as the risk of repeat shutdowns lingers.

“As policy remains uber accommodative, the dollar has adjusted downwards,” said Scott Jamieson, head of multi-asset investing at Kames Capital in London, with $24 billion under management.

“While we have been inclined to see tapering next year, the market is only now coming to appreciate this,” said analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. “After the September disappointment, surveys suggest that a majority shifted their expectations to December. Now in light of the fiscal drag and new uncertainty, the mid-January and mid-February limits on spending and debt issuance will loom large at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and likely reduces the possibility of tapering then. The focus is likely to shift to the March 2014 FOMC meeting for the first tapering,” they said.

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.4% to 1740, pushing further into record territory. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.8% to 3893. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind, dropping 0.2% to 15370.

On Thursday, stocks staged a late-session comeback that helped push the S&P 500 to an all-time high close of 1733.15.

European stocks edged higher, supported by the late bounce in the U.S. and encouraging Chinese growth figures.

Now that Congress has temporarily approved a bill to raise the debt ceiling, attention is likely to shift back to earnings and fundamentals. And as investors reassess their expectations for any withdrawal of stimulus from the Fed, all eyes will be on the economic data that was delayed by the partial government shutdown. The next focus will beSeptember’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is due on Oct. 22.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303680404579142850162694282


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