Double Dip Recession Begins: The Ever Shrinking U.S. Labor Force Declined By 496,000!–Labor Participation Rate Declines .2% to 63.3% New Obama Low and Lowest Since Carter in May 1979! and Only 88,000 Nonfarm payroll Increase in March 2013 — U-7b Unemployment Rate Over 22%! — Videos
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Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
|Measure||Not seasonally adjusted||Seasonally adjusted|
|Mar. 2012||Feb. 2013||Mar. 2013||Mar. 2012||Nov. 2012||Dec. 2012||Jan. 2013||Feb. 2013||Mar. 2013|
|U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force||4.9||4.3||4.3||4.6||4.3||4.3||4.2||4.2||4.1|
|U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force||4.8||4.6||4.3||4.5||4.1||4.1||4.3||4.2||4.1|
|U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)||8.4||8.1||7.6||8.2||7.8||7.8||7.9||7.7||7.6|
|U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers||8.9||8.6||8.1||8.7||8.3||8.5||8.4||8.3||8.1|
|U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force||9.7||9.6||9.0||9.6||9.2||9.4||9.3||9.2||8.9|
|U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force||14.8||14.9||13.9||14.5||14.4||14.4||14.4||14.3||13.8|
|NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm|
16 years and over
Series Id: LNS12300000
Series title: (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio
Labor force status: Employment-population ratio
Type of data: Percent or rate
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
143,286,000 March 2013
146,595,000 Nov. 2007 Peak of Boom
Series Id: LNS12000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment Level Labor force status: Employed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
|1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.|
Civilian Labor Force
155,028,000 March 2013
153,845,000 Nov. 2008
Series Id: LNS11000000
Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status: Civilian labor force
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
|1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.|
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
63.3% March 2013
66.0% Nov. 2007
63.3% May 1979
Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
11,742,000 March 2013
7,240,000 Nov. 2007
Series Id: LNS13000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level Labor force status: Unemployed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
U-3 Unemployment Rate
7.6% March 2013
4.7% Nov. 2007
Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
U-6 Total Unemployment Rate
13.8% March 2013
88.4% Nov. 2007
Series Id: LNS13327709 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployed Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over Percent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-13-0581 until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, April 5, 2013 Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 * email@example.com * www.bls.gov/cps Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * firstname.lastname@example.org * www.bls.gov/ces Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MARCH 2013 Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in March (+88,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services and in health care but declined in retail trade. Household Survey Data Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.7 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.6 percent, were little changed in March. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.9 percent), adult women (7.0 percent), teenagers (24.2 percent), whites (6.7 percent), blacks (13.3 percent), and Hispanics (9.2 percent) showed little or no change in March. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.0 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) In March, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.6 million. These individuals accounted for 39.6 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.) The civilian labor force declined by 496,000 over the month, and the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 63.3 percent. The employment- population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 350,000 over the month to 7.6 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.) In March, 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) Among the marginally attached, there were 803,000 discouraged workers in March, little changed from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up in March (+88,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 169,000 per month. In March, employment increased in professional and business services and in health care, while retail trade employment declined. (See table B-1.) Professional and business services added 51,000 jobs in March. Over the past 12 months, employment in this industry has grown by 533,000. Within professional and business services, accounting and bookkeeping services added 11,000 jobs over the month, and employment continued to trend up in temporary help services and in several other component industries. Job growth in health care continued in March, with a gain of 23,000, similar to the prior 12-month average. Within health care, employment increased by 15,000 in ambulatory health care services, such as home health care, and by 8,000 in hospitals. Construction employment continued to trend up in March (+18,000). Job growth in this industry picked up this past fall; since September, the industry has added 169,000 jobs. In March, employment continued to expand among specialty trade contractors (+23,000). Employment in specialty trade contractors has increased by 128,000 since September, with the gain about equally split between the residential and nonresidential components. Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in March (+13,000). Over the past year, the industry added 262,000 jobs. In March, retail trade employment declined by 24,000. The industry had added an average of 32,000 jobs per month over the prior 6 months. In March, job declines occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (-15,000), building material and garden supply stores (-10,000), and electronics and appliance stores (-6,000). Within government, U.S. Postal Service employment fell by 12,000 in March. Employment in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, state government, and local government, showed little change over the month. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. The manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $23.82, changed little (+1 cent). Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 42 cents, or 1.8 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $20.03, changed little (-1 cent) in March. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +119,000 to +148,000, and the change for February was revised from +236,000 to +268,000. ____________ The Employment Situation for April is scheduled to be released on Friday, May 3, 2013, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
2013Employment status Civilian noninstitutional population242,604244,663244,828244,995167Civilian labor force154,707155,654155,524155,028-496Participation rate63.863.663.563.3-0.2Employed142,020143,322143,492143,286-206Employment-population ratio58.558.658.658.5-0.1Unemployed12,68612,33212,03211,742-290Unemployment rate18.104.22.168.6-0.1Not in labor force87,89889,00889,30489,967663 Unemployment rates Total, 16 years and over22.214.171.124.6-0.1Adult men (20 years and over)126.96.36.199.9-0.2Adult women (20 years and over)7.47.37.07.00.0Teenagers (16 to 19 years)25.023.425.124.2-0.9White7.37.06.86.7-0.1Black or African American14.013.813.813.3-0.5Asian (not seasonally adjusted)188.8.131.52.0-Hispanic or Latino ethnicity10.39.79.69.2-0.4 Total, 25 years and over184.108.40.206.2-0.1Less than a high school diploma12.612.011.211.1-0.1High school graduates, no college8.08.17.97.6-0.3Some college or associate degree7.57.06.76.4-0.3Bachelor’s degree and higher220.127.116.11.80.0 Reason for unemployment Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs7,0216,6376,5226,329-193Job leavers1,11198195698630Reentrants3,2643,5153,3403,176-164New entrants1,4211,2871,2791,31637 Duration of unemployment Less than 5 weeks2,5962,7662,6672,464-2035 to 14 weeks2,7843,0282,7822,8385615 to 26 weeks1,8771,8581,6951,7374227 weeks and over5,3024,7084,7974,611-186 Employed persons at work part time Part time for economic reasons7,6647,9737,9887,638-350Slack work or business conditions5,0605,1265,1364,906-230Could only find part-time work2,3602,6302,5782,576-2Part time for noneconomic reasons18,53018,46418,90818,745-163 Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted) Marginally attached to the labor force2,3522,4432,5882,326-Discouraged workers865804885803– Over-the-month changes are not displayed for not seasonally adjusted data.
NOTE: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.
Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
|EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY
(Over-the-month change, in thousands)
|Mining and logging||1||3||5||1|
|Motor vehicles and parts||10.7||1.7||1.3||0.8|
|Transportation and warehousing||3.1||-22.2||-1.7||-2.8|
|Professional and business services(1)||43||46||80||51|
|Temporary help services||-7.1||11.6||23.4||20.3|
|Education and health services(1)||46||15||31||44|
|Health care and social assistance||28.7||16.5||36.9||27.9|
|Leisure and hospitality||52||31||26||17|
|WOMEN AND PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES(2)
AS A PERCENT OF ALL EMPLOYEES
|Total nonfarm women employees||49.3||49.4||49.3||49.3|
|Total private women employees||47.8||47.9||47.8||47.8|
|Total private production and nonsupervisory employees||82.6||82.6||82.6||82.6|
|HOURS AND EARNINGS
|Average weekly hours||34.5||34.4||34.5||34.6|
|Average hourly earnings||$23.40||$23.78||$23.81||$23.82|
|Average weekly earnings||$807.30||$818.03||$821.45||$824.17|
|Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3)||96.2||97.4||97.9||98.2|
|Over-the-month percent change||-0.1||-0.1||0.5||0.3|
|Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4)||107.4||110.4||111.1||111.6|
|Over-the-month percent change||0.2||0.0||0.6||0.5|
|HOURS AND EARNINGS
PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES
|Average weekly hours||33.7||33.6||33.8||33.8|
|Average hourly earnings||$19.68||$19.98||$20.04||$20.03|
|Average weekly earnings||$663.22||$671.33||$677.35||$677.01|
|Index of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)||103.5||104.7||105.5||105.6|
|Over-the-month percent change||-0.1||-0.2||0.8||0.1|
|Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2002=100)(4)||136.0||139.7||141.2||141.3|
|Over-the-month percent change||0.1||0.1||1.1||0.1|
(Over 1-month span)
|Total private (266 industries)||68.8||63.0||59.6||54.3|
|Manufacturing (81 industries)||74.1||55.6||54.3||46.3|
(1) Includes other industries, not shown separately.
(2) Data relate to production employees in mining and logging and manufacturing, construction employees in construction, and nonsupervisory employees in the service-providing industries.
(3) The indexes of aggregate weekly hours are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate hours by the corresponding annual average aggregate hours.
(4) The indexes of aggregate weekly payrolls are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate weekly payrolls by the corresponding annual average aggregate weekly payrolls.
(5) Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
In economics, a discouraged worker is a person of legal employment age who is not actively seeking employment or who does not find employment after long-term unemployment. This is usually because an individual has given up looking or has had no success in finding a job, hence the term “discouraged”.
In other words, even if a person is still looking actively for a job, that person may have fallen out of the core statistics of unemployment rate after long-term unemployment and is therefore by default classified as “discouraged” (since the person does not appear in the core statistics of unemployment rate). In some cases, their belief may derive from a variety of factors including a shortage of jobs in their locality or line of work; discrimination for reasons such as age, race, sex, religion, sexual orientation, and disability; a lack of necessary skills, training, or experience; or, a chronic illness or disability.
As a general practice, discouraged workers, who are often classified as “marginally attached to the labor force”, “on the margins” of the labor force, or as part of “hidden unemployment”, are not considered to be part of the labor force and are thus not counted in most official unemployment rates, which influences the appearance and interpretation of unemployment statistics. Although some countries offer alternative measures of unemployment rate, the existence of discouraged workers can be inferred from a low employment-to-population ratio.
In the United States, a discouraged worker is defined as a person not in the labor force who wants and is available for a job and who has looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of his or her last job if a job was held within the past 12 months), but who is not currently looking because of real or perceived poor employment prospects.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not count discouraged workers as unemployed but rather refers to them as only “marginally attached to the labor force”. This means that the officially measured unemployment captures so-called “frictional unemployment” and not much else. This has led some economists to believe that the actual unemployment rate in the United States is higher than what is officially reported while others suggest that discouraged workers voluntarily choose not to work. Nonetheless, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has published the discouraged worker rate in alternative measures of labor underutilization under U-4 since 1994 when the most recent redesign of the CPS was implemented.
The United States Department of Labor first began tracking discouraged workers in 1967 and found 500,000 at the time. Today, In the United States, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of April 2009, there are 740,000 discouraged workers. There is an ongoing debate as to whether discouraged workers should be included in the official unemployment rate. Over time, it has been shown that a disproportionate number of young people, blacks, Hispanics and men, make up discouraged workers. Nonetheless, it is generally believed that the discouraged worker is underestimated because it does not include homeless people or those who have not looked for or held a job during the past twelve months and is often poorly tracked.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the top five reasons for discouragement are the following:
- The worker thinks no work is available.
- The worker could not find work.
- The worker lacks schooling or training.
- The worker is viewed as too young or too old by the prospective employer.
- The worker is the target of various types of discrimination. …
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- ^ “Issues in Labor Statistics: Ranks of Discouraged Workers and Others Marginally Attached to the Labor Force Rise During Recession”. Issues in Labor Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Division of Information Services. May 1, 2009. p. 2. Retrieved 2009-05-10.
- ^ Ahrens, Frank (May 8, 2009; 3:25 PM ET). “Actual U.S. Unemployment: 15.8%”. Economy Watch. The Washington Post. Retrieved 2009-05-10.
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- Australian Bureau of Statistics. Persons in the Labour Force, Australia (Including Persons who Wanted Work but who were not Defined as Unemployed) (6219.0). July 1985.
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- Discouraged workers in glossary, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Division of Information Services
- Employment Situation Summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Division of Information Services
- Alternative measures of labor underutilization, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Division of Information Services
- Discouraged Worker, Investopedia
- Down And Out: “Discouraged” Workers, Time magazine
- Actual U.S. Unemployment: 15.8%, The Washington Post
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- Tracking the Long-Term Unemployed and Discouraged Workers, The Heritage Foundation
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- Jobless statistics overlook many, San Francisco Chronicle
- PROMOTING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND OWNERSHIP
- Labor force characteristics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey