63.6 Percent Labor Participation Rate Lowest in 3 Decades:Labor Force Shrank By 342,000 in April 2012–The Real Reason The Unemployment Rate Fell To 8.1 Percent–Videos

Posted on May 4, 2012. Filed under: Banking, Blogroll, College, Communications, Economics, Education, Employment, Federal Government, Federal Government Budget, Fiscal Policy, government, government spending, Immigration, Inflation, Investments, Law, liberty, Life, Links, Macroeconomics, media, Microeconomics, Monetary Policy, Money, People, Philosophy, Politics, Raves, Taxes, Video, Wealth, Wisdom | Tags: , , , |

What weak April jobs report could mean

The Kudlow Report – Stocks Suffer A Jobs Jolt On Friday 5-4-2012

Financial Checkup: Nothing Good in April Jobs Numbers

Peter Schiff: We aren’t that far behind Greece 

 

Max Keiser: Unemployment numbers are ‘propaganda’

The Truth Behind the Unemployment Numbers + Stimulus vs Austerity

Unemployment Rate Down, Job Creation Misses Mark

Holtz-Eakin On Disappointing Jobs Numbers on FOX News 

Wall Street retreats on US jobs report 

U.S.  Job Growth Slowed, Economy Adding 115,000 In April

ADP Reports Weaker Rise In Private Sector Jobs

Record High Unemployment in the Eurozone

Top Headlines: ADP Jobs Report, Europe Unemployment

Eurozone unemployment still rising

Grim recovery outlook from BLS Comissioner Hall 

Vice Chairman Brady Questions BLS Commissioner at JEC Hearing on the Employment Situation

U.S. economy slows with high unemployment rates, growing national debt and rising gas prices

College students across the nation face a slowing economy, high unemployment rates, a growing national debt and rising gas prices.

The Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported on April 27 that the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2012.  This compares to a 3 percent annual rate increase in real domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Source: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

The Bureau emphasized that the first quarter numbers are advanced estimates based on incomplete data. The second estimate for the first quarter is based on more complete data and will be released May 31.

The slowdown in real GDP in the first quarter was primarily due to a deceleration in private inventory investment and a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment. This was partially offset by acceleration in personal consumption expenditures and exports.

President Barack Obama’s Principal Deputy Press Secretary Josh Earnest abroad Air Force One en route to Fort Stewart, Ga. said:

“Today’s report indicates that, for the 11th consecutive quarter, we’ve enjoyed economic growth in this country.”

Earnest pointed to other encouraging aspects of the report. He said:

“Personal consumption increased by 2.9 percent; that’s an increase from 2.1 percent in the previous quarter.  We also saw residential home construction increase by about 19 percent.  So there have been four consecutive quarters of improvement in the residential housing sector.  That’s the first time that that’s happened since 2005.”

The unemployment rate has been more than 8 percent for the preceding 39 consecutive months. In April the unemployment rate was 8.1 percent.  The unemployment rate is even higher among teenagers at 24.9 percent, blacks at 13 percent and Hispanics at 10.3 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). More than 12.5 million Americans are unemployed and searching for a job.

U.S. Unemployment Rate  U-3

 Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

The main reason the unemployment rate has fallen in recent months is the significant decline in the labor participation rate resulting in a smaller labor force. During the Bush administration, the labor participation rate was usually in the 66 percent to 67 percent range. During the Obama administration, the labor participation rate has fallen from a high of 65.8 percent in February, 2009 to a low of 63.6 percent in April 2012, the lowest in 3 decades.  The labor force is shrinking as more and more Americans become discouraged and leave the labor force when they are unable to find a job after many months of searching for employment. The labor force declined by 342,000 in April according the BLS.

U.S. Labor Participation Rate

Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

The nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs in April, the lowest job gain in six months. The February and March job estimates were revised upward by a total of 53,000. Nonfarm payroll is the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business excluding employees of farms, private households, nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals, and general government. Nonfarm payroll accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who produce the GDP of the U.S.

Change in Nonfarm Payroll in Last Six Months

November  

December

January

February

March

April

157,000

223,000

175,000

240,000

154,000

115,000

Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

When George W. Bush became President in January 2001, the employment level was 137.7 million. The employment level peaked in November 2007 at 146.5 million. When Obama became President in January 2009, the employment level was 142.1 million. The employment level bottomed out in December 2009 at 137.9 million. In April the employment level was 141.8 million or 4.7 million fewer people employed than in November 2007.

U.S. Employment Level in thousands

Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

On Bush’s first day in office, the national debt was $5.7 trillion. Bush added $4.9 trillion to the national debt during his eight years in office.  On Obama’s first day in office, the national debt was $10.6 trillion. Obama will have added more than $5.3 trillion to the national debt during his four years in office. In just 12 years of massive government deficit spending, the national debt will have increased more than $10 trillion.

Today the U.S. total gross national debt exceeds $15.7 trillion or more than $50,000 per citizen or $138,000 per taxpayer, with annual interest on the debt exceeding $225 billion, according to www.usdebtclock.org. The national debt exceeds 100 percent of U.S. GDP, the total value of final goods and services. Should Obama be re-elected, his budgetary projections would result in a national debt exceeding $20 trillion by 2016. Massive government deficit spending, a rapidly rising national debt and interest payments are major concerns of the American people and will be campaign issues in the 2012 election.

The cost of driving has also significantly increased. Gas prices nationally have risen from an average of $1.85 in January 2009 to $ 3.83 or more today.

Much of this increase in gasoline prices at the pump is due to excessive speculation in crude oil future contracts by large financial institutions, according to Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Francis King Carey School of Law and formerly a Futures Trading Commission director in the Division of Trading & Markets. Greenberger wrote:

“A host of prominent economic studies from inter alia, Stanford, Princeton, Texas A&M University and the London School of Economics, as well as analysis by such prominent market observers as Nouriel Roubini from the Stern School of Business at New York University, have concluded that the five-year volatility in the price of crude oil is substantially due to excessive speculation in crude oil derivative markets. These studies do not conclude that market volatility principally derives from supply/demand fundamentals.”

For additional information, view the YouTube videos, “Michael Greenberger on commodity prices and volatility” and “Michael Greenberger on crude oil speculation.”

If the upward trend in gas prices continues into the summer and fall months, the economy would most likely slow even more and unemployment rates rise even higher. In the next 12 months, the U.S. economy might even enter another recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. This would directly affect college students and who they vote for in the 2012 elections.

Background Articles and Videos

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed                   USDL-12-0816
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, May 4, 2012

Technical information:
 Household data:       (202) 691-6378  *  cpsinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/cps
 Establishment data:   (202) 691-6555  *  cesinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact:         (202) 691-5902  *  PressOffice@bls.gov

                         THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2012

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services,
retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment
rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men 
(7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent), whites
(7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in
April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month.
The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally
adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over)
was little changed at 5.1 million in April. These individuals made up 41.3
percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed
has fallen by 759,000. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little.
(See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes 
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in
April at 7.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their
hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
(See table A-8.)

In April, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,
essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were
available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 968,000 discouraged workers in April,
about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they
believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons
marginally attached to the labor force in April had not searched for work
in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance
or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April. This increase 
followed a gain of 154,000 in March and gains averaging 252,000 per month
for December to February. In April, employment rose in professional and
business services, retail trade, and health care. Transportation and
warehousing lost jobs over the month. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 62,000 in
April. Since a recent low point in September 2009, employment in this
industry has grown by 1.5 million. In April, employment in temporary help
services edged up by 21,000. Employment grew in architectural and
engineering services (+7,000) and in computer systems design and related
services (+7,000).

Retail trade employment rose by 29,000 over the month. General merchandise
stores added 21,000 jobs in April but has shown no definitive trend in recent
months. Employment in building material and garden supply stores continued to
trend up; the industry has added 19,000 jobs since December.

Health care continued to add jobs (+19,000) in April. Within the industry,
employment in ambulatory health care services, which includes home health care
and offices of physicians, rose by 15,000.

Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking
places continued to trend up (+20,000) in April. Since February 2010, food
services and drinking places has added 576,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment continued to trend up (+16,000) in April, with
job growth in fabricated metal products (+6,000) and machinery (+5,000).
Since its most recent employment low in January 2010, manufacturing has
added 489,000 jobs, largely in durable goods manufacturing.

Transportation and warehousing lost 17,000 jobs in April, with employment
declines in transit and ground passenger transportation (-11,000) and in
couriers and messengers (-7,000).

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction,
wholesale trade, information, financial activities, and government changed
little in April.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged
at 34.5 hours in April. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to
40.8 hours, and factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average
workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls
was unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
rose by 1 cent to $23.38. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have
increased by 1.8 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector
production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 3 cents to $19.72.
(See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from +240,000 to +259,000, and the change for March was revised from +120,000 to +154,000. 
______________
The Employment Situation for May is scheduled to be released on
Friday, June 1, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Employment Level

Series Id:           LNS12000000

Seasonally Adjusted

Series title:        (Seas) Employment Level

Labor force status:  Employed

Type of data:        Number in thousands

Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2001 137778 137612 137783 137299 137092 136873 137071 136241 136846 136392 136238 136047
2002 135701 136438 136177 136126 136539 136415 136413 136705 137302 137008 136521 136426
2003 137417(1) 137482 137434 137633 137544 137790 137474 137549 137609 137984 138424 138411
2004 138472(1) 138542 138453 138680 138852 139174 139556 139573 139487 139732 140231 140125
2005 140245(1) 140385 140654 141254 141609 141714 142026 142434 142401 142548 142499 142752
2006 143150(1) 143457 143741 143761 144089 144353 144202 144625 144815 145314 145534 145970
2007 146028(1) 146057 146320 145586 145903 146063 145905 145682 146244 145946 146595 146273
2008 146397(1) 146157 146108 146130 145929 145738 145530 145196 145059 144792 144078 143328
2009 142187(1) 141660 140754 140654 140294 140003 139891 139458 138775 138401 138607 137968
2010 138500(1) 138665 138836 139306 139340 139137 139139 139338 139344 139072 138937 139220
2011 139330(1) 139551 139764 139628 139808 139385 139450 139754 140107 140297 140614 140790
2012 141637(1) 142065 142034 141865
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Civilian Labor Force Level

Series Id: LNS11000000 Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level

Labor force status: Civilian labor force

Type of data: Number in thousands

Age: 16 years and over


Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2001 143800 143701 143924 143569 143318 143357 143654 143284 143989 144086 144240 144305
2002 143883 144653 144481 144725 144938 144808 144803 145009 145552 145314 145041 145066
2003 145937(1) 146100 146022 146474 146500 147056 146485 146445 146530 146716 147000 146729
2004 146842(1) 146709 146944 146850 147065 147460 147692 147564 147415 147793 148162 148059
2005 148029(1) 148364 148391 148926 149261 149238 149432 149779 149954 150001 150065 150030
2006 150214(1) 150641 150813 150881 151069 151354 151377 151716 151662 152041 152406 152732
2007 153144(1) 152983 153051 152435 152670 153041 153054 152749 153414 153183 153835 153918
2008 154075(1) 153648 153925 153761 154325 154316 154480 154646 154559 154875 154622 154626
2009 154236(1) 154521 154143 154450 154800 154730 154538 154319 153786 153822 153833 153091
2010 153454(1) 153704 153964 154528 154216 153653 153748 154073 153918 153709 154041 153613
2011 153250(1) 153302 153392 153420 153700 153409 153358 153674 154004 154057 153937 153887
2012 154395(1) 154871 154707 154365
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Labor Force Participation Rate

Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate

Type of data: Percent or rate

Age: 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9 66.0 65.8 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.5 64.3
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.0
2012 63.7 63.9 63.8 63.6

Unemployment Rate U-3

Series Id:           LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted

Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate

Labor force status:  Unemployment rate

Type of data:        Percent or rate

Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.4
2011 9.1 9.0 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1

Employers in U.S. Added Fewer Jobs Than Forecast in April

By   Shobhana Chandra

“…Employers in the U.S. added fewer workers than forecast in April and the jobless rate unexpectedly declined as people left the labor force, underscoring concern the world’s largest economy may be losing speed.

Payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months, after a revised 154,000 rise in March that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 160,000 advance. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent and earnings stagnated.

A slowdown in hiring as corporate optimism cools may restrain the wage growth needed to fuel consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers view unemployment as “elevated” and plan to hold borrowing costs low through late 2014.  …”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-04/payrolls-in-u-s-rose-115-000-in-april-jobless-rate-at-8-1-.html

Unemployment Rate Or Unemployment Reality?

By Andrew C. McCarthy

“…Through the magic of Washington Math and the Obama Labor Department, the metric “unemployment rate” has become as nonsensical as “jobs created or saved” by the stimulus. The Obamedia creates a free campaign ad out of the purported drop from 8.3% to 8.2% (i.e., from appalling to marginally less appalling), but meantime millions have been added to the black-hole category of “Not In the Labor Force” — people who are so discouraged that they are not looking for work. That number is at an all-time high: 88 million. Thus the labor force participation rate, at under 64%, is lower than it’s been in 30 years. Mish Schedlock concludes, “Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment

rate would be well over 11%.”

Instead of giving the Left ammunition by bizarrely implying that our outlook is improving, maybe the Romney campaign could give some thought to breaking through the fudged “unemployment rate” chatter. Something like:

Total Population of Germany: 82,000,000

Population of U.S. Not in Labor Force: 88,000,000 …”

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/295558/unemployment-rate-or-unemployment-reality-andrew-c-mccarthy#

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