Archive for December 4th, 2009

Obama Uncertainty Generator and Regime Uncertainty

Posted on December 4, 2009. Filed under: Blogroll, Communications, Demographics, Economics, Education, Employment, Fiscal Policy, government spending, Immigration, Investments, Law, liberty, Life, Monetary Policy, People, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Regulations, Resources, Reviews, Technology, Video, War, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |

“It is time for economists and historians to take seriously the hypothesis that the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression by creating an extraordinarily high degree of regime uncertainty in the minds of investors. …”  

~Robert Higgs

http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_01_4_higgs.pdf 

  

Rush Limbaugh – Obama Attacks Small Businesses – Pt1

  

Rush Limbaugh – Obama Attacks Small Businesses – Pt2


  

  

Glenn Beck Show – December 4, 2009 – Pt 1 of 7

 

  

Glenn Beck Show – December 4, 2009 – Pt 2 of 7

Glenn Beck Show – December 4, 2009 – Pt 3 of 7 

Glenn Beck Show – December 4, 2009 – Pt 4 of 7

Glenn Beck Show – December 4, 2009 – Pt 5 of 7

Glenn Beck Show – December 4, 2009 – Pt 6 of 7

 

Glenn Beck Show – December 4, 2009 – Pt 7 of 7

What Caused the Great Depression?

“Many advocates of interventionism are bewildered when one tells them that in recommending interventionism they themselves are fostering antidemocratic and dictorial tendencies and the establishment of totalitarian socialism. They protest that they are sincere believers in democracy and opposed to tyranny and socialism. What they aim at is only the improvement of the conditions of the poor. They say that they are driven by consideration of social justice and favor a fairer distribution of income precisely because they are intent upon preserving capitalism and its political corollary or superstructure, viz., democratic government.

What these people fail to recognize is that the various measures they suggest are not capable of bringing about the beneficial results aimed at. On the contrary they produce a state of affairs which from the point of view of their advocates is worse than the previous state which they were designed to alter. If the government, face with this failure of its first intervention, is not prepared to undo its interference with the market and to return to a free economy, it must add to its first measure more and more regulations and restrictions. Then socialism of the German pattern, the Zwangswirtschaft of the Nazis, emerges. …”

~Ludwig von Mises, Planned Chaos, page 23.

 

 

Background Articles and Videos

Regime Uncertainty

Why the Great Depression Lasted

So Long and Why Prosperity

Resumed after the War

By Robert Higgs 

“…To narrow the concept of business confidence, I adopt the interpretationthat businesspeople may be more or less “uncertain about the regime,” by which I mean, distressed that investors’ private property rights in their capital and the income it yields will be attenuated further by government action. 

Such attenuations can arise from many sources, ranging from simple tax-rate increases to the imposition of new kinds of taxes to outright confiscation of private property. Many intermediate threats can arise from various sorts of regulation, for instance, of securities markets, labor markets, and product markets. In any event, the security of private property rights rests not so much on the letter of the law as on the character of the government that enforces, or threatens, presumptive rights. …” 

“…From 1935 through 1940, with Roosevelt and the ardent New Dealerswho surrounded him in full cry, private investors dared not risk their funds inthe amounts typical of the late 1920s. In 1945 and 1946, with Roosevelt dead, the New Deal in retreat, and most of the wartime controls being removed, investors came out in force. To be sure, the federal government had become, and would remain, a much more powerful force to be reckoned with (Higgs 1987; Hughes 1991). But the government no longer seemed to possess the terrifying potential that businesspeople had perceived before the war. For investors, the nightmare was over. For the economy, once more, prosperity was possible.” 

http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_01_4_higgs.pdf

  

The Great Depression and the Current Recession (Part 6 of 9)

The Great Depression and the Current Recession (Part 7 of 9)

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The Great Depression and the Current Recession–Robert Higgs–Videos

Posted on December 4, 2009. Filed under: Blogroll, Communications, Demographics, Economics, Education, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Foreign Policy, government spending, Health Care, history, Homes, Immigration, Investments, Language, Law, liberty, Life, Links, Monetary Policy, People, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Regulations, Resources, Taxes, Video, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , |

 

The Great Depression and the Current Recession (Robert Higgs)

Background Articles and Videos

Robert Higgs
Senior Fellow in Political Economy

“…Robert Higgs is Senior Fellow in Political Economy for The Independent Institute and Editor of the Institute’s quarterly journal The Independent Review. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Johns Hopkins University, and he has taught at the University of Washington, Lafayette College, Seattle University, and the University of Economics, Prague. He has been a visiting scholar at Oxford University and Stanford University, and a fellow for the Hoover Institution and the National Science Foundation. 

He is the recipient of numerous awards, including the Gary Schlarbaum Award for Lifetime Defense of Liberty, Thomas Szasz Award for Outstanding Contributions to the Cause of Civil Liberties, Lysander Spooner Award for Advancing the Literature of Liberty, Friedrich von Wieser Memorial Prize for Excellence in Economic Education, and Templeton Honor Rolls Award on Education in a Free Society. 

Dr. Higgs is the editor of The Independent Institute books Opposing the Crusader State, The Challenge of Liberty, Re-Thinking Green, Hazardous to Our Health? and Arms, Politics, and the Economy, plus the volume Emergence of the Modern Political Economy

Bob is also the author of Depression, War, and Cold War, available in April 2009 in a new paperback edition, and Neither Liberty Nor Safety, Politická ekonomie strachu (The Political Economy of Fear, in Czech), Resurgence of the Warfare State, Against Leviathan, The Transformation of the American Economy 1865-1914, Competition and Coercion, and Crisis and Leviathan. A contributor to numerous scholarly volumes, he is the author of more than 100 articles and reviews in academic journals.  …”

http://www.independent.org/aboutus/person_detail.asp?id=489

Robert Higgs

“…Robert Higgs (born 1 February 1944) is an American economist of the Austrian School and a libertarian anarchist. His writings in economics and economic history have most often focused on the causes, means, and effects of government growth.

He is a Senior Fellow in Political Economy at the Independent Institute (since September 1994), and is editor of Independent Review (since 1995).[1] He is an adjunct faculty member of the Ludwig von Mises Institute[2] and is an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.[3] Higgs is also a contributor to LewRockwell.com.[4]

Higgs has held teaching positions at University of Washington, Lafayette College, and Seattle University. He has also been a visiting scholar at Oxford University and Stanford University. Higgs held a visiting professorship at the University of Economics, Prague in 2006,[1] and has supervised dissertations in the Ph.D. program at Universidad Francisco Marroquín.[5] …”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Higgs

Robert Higgs on Federal Reserve Transparency

 

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The Calm In The Eye Of Hurricane Barack–Official Unemployment Rate Declines From 10.2% to 10.0% and Real Unemployment Rate Declines From 17.5% to 17.2% In November–15,600,000 to 26,466,000 Americans Seeking A Full Time Job!

Posted on December 4, 2009. Filed under: Blogroll, Communications, Demographics, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Investments, Law, liberty, Life, Links, media, Monetary Policy, People, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Resources, Taxes, Technology, Video, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , |

 

  


The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

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Unemployment Statistics – John Williams on Economics 101

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0  
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8  
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9  
2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
2009 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.0  

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd_yYKYgOWo

Series Id:           LNS13327709
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status:  Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over
Percent/rates:       Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1  
2000 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9  
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6  
2002 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8  
2003 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8  
2004 9.9 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.2  
2005 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.5  
2006 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.0 7.9  
2007 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.7  
2008 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 13.5  
2009 13.9 14.8 15.6 15.8 16.4 16.5 16.3 16.8 17.0 17.5 17.2  

 

Series Id:           LNS14000006
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate - Black or African American
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over
Race:                Black or African American
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 7.8 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.4 7.7 8.7 7.7 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.8  
2000 8.2 8.1 7.4 7.0 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4  
2001 8.2 7.7 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.0 9.1 8.9 9.5 9.8 10.1  
2002 10.0 9.9 10.5 10.7 10.2 10.5 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.8 10.7 11.3  
2003 10.5 10.7 10.3 10.9 10.9 11.5 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.4 10.2 10.1  
2004 10.4 9.7 10.3 9.8 10.1 10.2 11.0 10.5 10.3 10.8 10.7 10.7  
2005 10.6 10.9 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.2 9.2 9.7 9.4 9.1 10.6 9.2  
2006 8.9 9.5 9.4 9.4 8.8 8.8 9.5 8.8 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.2  
2007 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.0 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.4 8.9  
2008 9.2 8.4 9.0 8.8 9.7 9.4 9.9 10.7 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.9  
2009 12.6 13.4 13.3 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.5 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.6

 

 http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

Background Articles and Videos

Rush Limbaugh – Today Show (Part 1 of 2)

 

Rush Limbaugh – Today Show (Part 2 of 2)

 

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed            USDL-09-1479
until 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, December 4, 2009

Technical information:
Household data:       (202) 691-6378  *  cpsinfo@bls.gov  *  http://www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data:   (202) 691-6555  *  cesinfo@bls.gov  *  http://www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact:         (202) 691-5902  *  PressOffice@bls.gov

                         THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — NOVEMBER 2009

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm
payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses
had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction,
manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care
added jobs.

Household Survey Data

In November, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.4 million, and the
unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, edged down. At the start of the recession
in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million, and the
jobless rate was 4.9 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (10.5 per-
cent), adult women (7.9 percent), teenagers (26.7 percent), whites (9.3 per-
cent), blacks (15.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent) showed little
change in November. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.3 percent, not
seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed tem-
porary jobs fell by 463,000 in November. The number of long-term unemployed
(those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 293,000 to 5.9 million. The
percentage of unemployed persons jobless for 27 weeks or more increased by
2.7 percentage points to 38.3 percent. (See tables A-8 and A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed in November at
65.0 percent. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 58.5 percent.
(See table A-1.)

The number of people working part time for economic reasons (sometimes re-
ferred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in November
at 9.2 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours
had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See
table A-5.)

About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in
November, an increase of 376,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12
months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 861,000 discouraged workers in
November, up from 608,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally ad-
justed.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work be-
cause they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 mil-
lion persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attend-
ance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in November
(-11,000). Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information
industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health
care. Since the recession began, payroll employment has decreased by 7.2
million. (See table B-1.)

Construction employment declined by 27,000 over the month. Job losses had
averaged 117,000 per month during the 6 months ending in April and 63,000
per month from May through October. In November, construction job losses
were concentrated among nonresidential specialty trade contractors
(-29,000).

Manufacturing employment fell by 41,000 in November. The average monthly
decline for the past 5 months (-46,000) was much lower than the average
monthly job loss for the first half of this year (-171,000). About 2.1 mil-
lion manufacturing jobs have been lost since December 2007; the majority of
this decline has occurred in durable goods manufacturing (-1.6 million).

Employment in the information industry fell by 17,000 in November. About
half of the job loss occurred in its telecommunications component (-9,000).

There was little change in wholesale and retail trade employment in November.
Within retail trade, department stores added 8,000 jobs over the month.

The number of jobs in transportation and warehousing, financial activities,
and leisure and hospitality showed little change over the month.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 86,000 in November.
Temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding
52,000 jobs. Since July, temporary help services employment has risen by
117,000.

Health care employment continued to rise in November (21,000), with not-
able gains in home health care services (7,000) and hospitals (7,000). The
health care industry has added 613,000 jobs since the recession began in
December 2007.

In November, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours. The manufacturing
workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 40.4 hours. Factory overtime rose by 0.1
hour to 3.4 hours. Since May, the manufacturing workweek has increased by
1.0 hour. (See table B-2.)

In November, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $18.74.
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent,
while average weekly earnings have risen by 1.6 percent. (See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from
-219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to
-111,000.

_____________
The Employment Situation for December is scheduled to be released on Friday,
January 8, 2010, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

    ———————————————————————
   |                                                                     |
   |     Upcoming Changes to The Employment Situation News Release       |
   |                                                                     |
   |Effective with the release of January 2010 data on February 5, 2010, |
   |the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will introduce several changes   |
   |to The Employment Situation news release text and tables. Two new    |
   |summary tables–one for the household survey and one for the estab-  |
   |lishment survey–will replace the current table A. In addition,      |
   |three new household data tables will provide information on the em-  |
   |ployment status of veterans, persons with a disability, and the for- |
   |eign born. Also, the establishment data tables have been largely re- |
   |designed to include information on all employee hours and earnings,  |
   |women workers, and production and nonsupervisory workers. The or-    |
   |dering and format of some tables also will change. Additional inform-|
   |ation is available at http://www.bls.gov/bls/upcoming_empsit_changes.htm.   |
   |                                                                     |
    ———————————————————————

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