Ben Bernanke Boom Bubble Blower Busted By The Bubble Film — Videos
Ben Bernanke Is The Most Dangerous Man In US History
BREAKING 2013 Economic Collapse Peter Schiff
The Bubble film official trailer
Raw footage of Jim Rogers interview – The Bubble film
Raw Footage of Doug Casey Interview from The Bubble
Raw footage of Jim Grant interview from The Bubble film
Raw footage of Peter Schiff Interview from The Bubble
The Bubble – Raw footage of Marc Faber interview
Raw Footage of Peter Wallison Interview from The Bubble
Raw Footage of Joseph Salerno Interview from The Bubble
Raw Footage of Robert Murphy interview from The Bubble
Raw footage of Roger Garrison Interview from The Bubble
Raw footage of Ron Paul interview from The Bubble film
The Bubble film panel at Freedom Fest 2012
U.S. Debt Clock
Background Articles and Videos
The American Dream By The Provocateur Network
Slow “growth”,GDP makeover, Keynesians demand more debt and inflation
The Fed, Ben Bernanke & the Economy (4/30/13)
Coming Economic Collapse Peter Schiff RT America
Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle | Roger W. Garrison
Tom Woods Discusses his New Documentary, The Bubble
Director of “The Bubble” Jimmy Morrison interview with ManifestLiberty.com Part 1/2
Director of “The Bubble” Jimmy Morrison interview with ManifestLiberty.com Part 2/2
Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low, Continues Bond Buying Program
The Federal Reserve held fast to its ultra-accommodative monetary policy Wednesday, solidified by what board members described as an economy weakened by fiscal policy.
Interest rates will remain at historically low levels while the U.S. central bank will not alter its $85 billion a month asset purchasing program, the Fed’s Open Markets Committee decided at this week’s meeting.
While recent meetings have been remarkable for signs of dissent over the long-standing Fed policy, the sentiment this month turned towards concerns about “downside risks” to growth, though the FOMC made no mention of the recent set of weak economic data.
The Federal Reserve held fast to its ultra-accommodative monetary policy Wednesday, solidified by what board members described as an economy weakened by fiscal policy.
Interest rates will remain at historically low levels while the U.S. central bank will not alter its $85 billion a month asset purchasing program, the Fed’s Open Markets Committee decided at this week’s meeting.
While recent meetings have been remarkable for signs of dissent over the long-standing Fed policy, the sentiment this month turned towards concerns about “downside risks” to growth, though the FOMC made no mention of the recent set of weak economic data.
While stocks have soared to new highs, the economy remains in slow-growth mode as it has throughout Chairman Ben Bernanke’s term, which began just before the onset of the financial crisis.
The stock market reacted little to the 2 pm news, maintaining an earlier selloff spurred over jobs fears.
Fed officials have long bemoaned Washington fiscal policy, with Congress and the White House in a continued stalemate that has resulted in a raft of mandated tax increases and spending cuts known as the sequester.
The May FOMC statement kept up the heat.
“Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth,” the statement said.
The Fed’s decision came the same day as a report on private payrolls fell well below expectations, indicating just 119,000 new jobs created, a seven-month low.
While critics worry about inflation, the Fed continued to conclude that “expectations have remained stable.”
The Fed has vowed to keep interest rates exceptionally low until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent from its current 7.6 percent and until inflation reaches 2.5 percent from its current 1.5 percent.
-By CNBC.com Senior Writer Jeff Cox.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100695681
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )2.5% First Quarter 2013 Real Annual Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — Stagflation — Government GDP Calculation of Investment To Include Intangibles R&D — Videos
Ken Langone: Regulation Biggest Issue Hurting U.S. Economy
April 26 (Bloomberg) — Ken Langone, founder & CEO at Invemed Associates, talks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen about first-quarter U.S. GDP, the impact of regulations and the anti-business stance of the Obama Administration. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”
Peter Schiff We re in Depression, Dollar Crisis Coming
[
GDP Propaganda Exposed
Data shift to lift US economy 3%
By Robin Harding in Washington
The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.
Billions of dollars of intangible assets will enter the gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy in a revision aimed at capturing the changing nature of US output.
Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times that the update was the biggest since computer software was added to the accounts in 1999.
“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” said Mr Moulton.
The changes will affect everything from the measured GDP of different US states to the stability of the inflation measure targeted by the Federal Reserve. They will force economists to revisit policy debates about everything from corporate profits to the causes of economic growth.
The revision, equivalent to adding a country as big as Belgium to the estimated size of the world economy, will make the US one of the first adopters of a new international standard for GDP accounting.
“We’re capitalising research and development and also this category referred to as entertainment, literary and artistic originals, which would be things like motion picture originals, long-lasting television programmes, books and sound recordings,” said Mr Moulton.
At present, R&D counts as a cost of doing business, so the final output of Apple iPads is included in GDP but the research done to create them is not. R&D will now count as an investment, adding a bit more than 2 per cent to the measured size of the economy.
GDP will soar in small states that host a lot of military R&D, but barely change in others, widening measured income gaps across the US. R&D is expected to boost the GDP of New Mexico by 10 per cent and Maryland by 6 per cent while Louisiana will see an increase of just 0.6 per cent.
Creative works are expected to add a further 0.5 per cent to the overall size of the US economy. Around one-third of that will come from movies, one-third from TV programmes, and one-third from books, music and theatre.
Deficits in defined benefit pension schemes will also be included because what companies have promised to pay out will be measured, rather than the cash they pay into plans.
“We will now show a liability for underfunded plans, which particularly has large ramifications for the government sector, where both at the state level and the federal level we have large underfunded plans,” said Mr Moulton.
The changes are in addition to a comprehensive revision of the national accounts that takes place every five years based on an economic census of nearly 4m US businesses.
Steve Landefeld, BEA director, said it was hard to predict the overall outcome given the mixture of new methodology and data updates. “What’s going to happen when you mix it with the new source data from the economic census . . . I don’t know,” he said.
But he said the revisions were unlikely to alter the picture of what has happened to the economy in recent years. “I wouldn’t be looking for large changes in trends or cycles.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52d23fa6-aa98-11e2-bc0d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Rb5G6QBg
US GDP Will Be Revised Higher By $500 Billion Following Addition Of “Intangibles” To Economy
Submitted by Tyler Durden
Those who have been following the US debt to GDP ratio now that the US officially does not have a debt ceiling indefinitely, may have had the occasional panic attack seeing how this country’s leverage ratio is rapidly approaching that of a Troika case study of a PIIG in complete failure. And at 107% debt/GDP no explanations are necessary. Luckily, the official gatekeepers of America’s economic growth (with decimal point precision), the Bureau of Economic Analysis have a plan on how to make the US economy, which is now growing at an abysmal 1.5% annualized pace, or about 5 times slower than US debt growing at 7.5% annually, catch up: magically make up a number out of thin air, and add it to the total. And it literally is out of thin air: according to the FT the addition will constitute of a one-time addition of intangibles, amounting to 3% of total US GDP, or more than the size of Belgium at $500 billion, to the US economy.
The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.
Billions of dollars of intangible assets will enter the gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy in a revision aimed at capturing the changing nature of US output.
Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times that the update was the biggest since computer software was added to the accounts in 1999.
“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” said Mr Moulton.
What exactly will constitute GDP growth going forward? In a word, intangibles: films, books, magazines and iTunes songs.
“We’re capitalising research and development and also this category referred to as entertainment, literary and artistic originals, which would be things like motion picture originals, long-lasting television programmes, books and sound recordings,” said Mr Moulton.
At present, R&D counts as a cost of doing business, so the final output of Apple iPads is included in GDP but the research done to create them is not. R&D will now count as an investment, adding a bit more than 2 per cent to the measured size of the economy.
Nothing like adding intangibles in the fluid, ever-changing definition of what constitutes an economy.
Naturally, the only reason for this artificial “boost” to the US economy which apparently can be any old arbitrary number agreed upon by a few accountants, and which always goes up post revision, never down, is to make US debt/GDP under 100% once again, if only very briefly. Surely a few months later something else can be “added” to GDP making the US economy appear better than it is once more.
Finally, all of the above is a distraction for idiots.
As most people should know by know (this logically excludes economists), the only factor leading to economic “growth” is the expansion of liabilities of the financial system, whereby new credit (in a healthy environment, not one centrally-planned by several Princeton real-world rejects, where the central bank is forced to create all credit expansion with money that never leaves the banks and the capital markets closed loop) creates new money, creates demand for products and services, and circulates in the economy.
This can be seen in the chart below which shows the nearly perfect correlation between total bank liabilities in the US, as per the Fed’s Flow Of Funds report, and total US GDP.
Bottom line: the BEA can capitalize air consumption if it thinks it will make US GDP soar, but unless new credit and bank liabilities are created not due to forced supply but demand, and unless the private financial sector is finally willing to start lending money (which for the entire duration of QE it has not) US growth will stall and then proceed to decline.
Case in point: total US commerical bank loans are still lower than they were the day Lehman filed.
In other words, all the GDP “growth” since the Lehman failure has come on the back of money “created” by the Fed.
And there are still those who think the Fed will ever unwind…
* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,
contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.
| Lisa S. Mataloni: | (202) 606-5304 | (GDP) | gdpniwd@bea.gov |
| Recorded message: | (202) 606-5306 | ||
| Jeannine Aversa: | (202) 606-2649 | (News Media) |
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2013 (advance estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that
is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and
"Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on
more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2013.
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, residential investment,
and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal
government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased.
BOX_______________________
Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
BEA plans to release the results of the 14th comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national
income and product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the second quarter 2013 "advance" estimate
on July 31, 2013. More information on the revision is available on BEA’s Web site at
www.bea.gov/gdp-revisions, including a link to an article in the March 2013 issue of the Survey of
Current Business that discusses the upcoming changes in definitions and presentations, including
capitalizing spending on research and development and on entertainment originals and measuring
transactions of defined benefit pension plans on an accrual accounting basis. An article in the May
Survey will describe changes in statistical methods, and an article in the September Survey will describe
the estimates in detail. Revised NIPA table stubs and news release stubs will be available in June.
FOOTNOTE___________________
Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on www.bea.gov along with the Technical Note and highlights related to this release.
___________________________
The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private
inventory investment, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in exports, and a smaller decrease in federal
government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in imports and a deceleration in nonresidential
fixed investment.
Motor vehicle output added 0.24 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after
adding 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.01
percentage point from the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.10 percentage point to the
fourth-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the fourth.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in
the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the fourth.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 8.1 percent, compared with an increase
of 13.6 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
Services increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of 13.2 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 0.3 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 16.7 percent. Equipment and software increased 3.0 percent, compared with an increase of
11.8 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 12.6 percent, compared with an increase of
17.6 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 2.8 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 5.4 percent, in
contrast to a decrease of 4.2 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 8.4 percent
in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 14.8 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased
11.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 22.1 percent. Nondefense decreased 2.0 percent, in contrast
to an increase of 1.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 1.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.5 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 1.03 percentage points to the first-quarter change in
real GDP after subtracting 1.52 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $50.3 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $13.3 billion in the fourth
quarter and $60.3 billion in the third.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.5
percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter; it was unchanged in the fourth quarter.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income decreased $109.1 billion (3.2 percent) in the first quarter, in
contrast to an increase of $262.3 billion (8.1 percent) in the fourth. The downturn in personal income
primarily reflected a sharp downturn in personal dividend income and a sharp acceleration in
contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in the calculation of personal income.
Fourth-quarter personal dividend income was boosted by the payment of accelerated and special
dividends. The acceleration in contributions for government social insurance in the first quarter resulted
from the expiration of the "payroll tax holiday."
Personal current taxes increased $27.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of
$34.3 billion in the fourth.
Disposable personal income decreased $136.3 billion (4.4 percent) in the first quarter, in contrast
to an increase of $228.0 billion (7.9 percent) in the fourth. Real disposable personal income decreased
5.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.2 percent.
Personal outlays increased $116.3 billion (4.1 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of $97.0 billion (3.4 percent) in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $313.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with $566.0 billion in the fourth.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was
2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.7 percent in the fourth. For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.7 percent, or $146.1 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $16,010.2 billion. In the fourth quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 1.3 percent, or $53.1 billion.
BOX_____________________
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
________________________
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- May 30, 2013, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2013 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2013 (Preliminary Estimate)
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: the "advance" estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
economy.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.2 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of
compared regard to sign revisions without
regard to sign
____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.2 0.6 0.4
Advance to third..................... .1 .7 .4
Second to third...................... .0 .3 .2
Advance to latest.................... .3 1.2 1.0
________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4
Advance to third..................... .1 .6 .5
Second to third...................... .0 .2 .2
Advance to latest.................... .2 1.3 1.0
NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2009.
Where is Gold Prices Going? Peter Schiff vs. Larry Kudlow: Gold & The Dollar — Videos
Peter Schiff vs. Larry Kudlow: Gold & The Dollar
Peter Schiff: I’ve Been Buying Gold for 13 Years
Bloomberg’s Alix Steel Analyzes Why Peter Schiff & Gold Mining Stocks Are Massive Losers
Clown Solidarity – Jim Cramer Supports Peter Schiff On Gold (You Know What This Means…)
Keiser Report: Correlation & Causation of Gold Price (E434, ft. Paul Craig Roberts)
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
Peter Schiff: The Coming Economic Collapse — Videos
Peter Schiff, Europe is the Warm Up, but America is the Main Event
Peter Schiff – Get Out Now Get Out Of The Dollar
Lou Dobbs versus Peter Schiff
Doug Casey interviews Peter Schiff
Cyprus Is Small, But The Problem Is Enormous
Coming Economic Collapse – Peter Schiff RT America
Peter Schiff Debates Doug Henwood on stimulus deficit spending
Economic Collapse Not Only Possible But IMMINENT w Peter Schiff…
CNBC’s Joe Kernen Talks About Peter Schiff? (Pompous Blowhard, Bad Jacket, Bad Market Calls…)
Peter Schiff – The Fed Unspun: The Other Side of the Story
Schiff: 2/3 of America to Lose Everything Because of This Crisis
A record breaking stock market is distorting a frightening reality: The U.S. is being eaten alive by a horrific cancer that will ultimately destroy the economy and impoverish the vast majority of its citizens.
That’s according to Peter Schiff, the best-selling author and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, who delivered his harsh warning to investors in a recent interview on Fox Business.
“I think we are heading for a worse economic crisis than we had in 2007,” Schiff said. “You’re going to have a collapse in the dollar…a huge spike in interest rates… and our whole economy, which is built on the foundation of cheap money, is going to topple when you pull the rug out from under it.”
Schiff says that, despite “phony” signs of an economic recovery, the cancer destroying America stems from a lethal concoction of our $16 trillion federal debt and the Fed’s never ending money printing.
Currently, Bernanke and company is buying $1 trillion of Treasury and mortgage bonds a year. That’s about $85 billion per month against a budget deficit that is about the same level.
According to Schiff, these numbers are unsustainable. And the Fed has no credible “exit strategy.”
Eventually interest rates will rise… and when they do, Schiff says, stocks will tank and bonds dip to nothing. Massive new tax hikes will be imposed and programs and entitlements will be cut to the bone.
“The crisis is imminent,” Schiff said. ”I don’t think Obama is going to finish his second term without the bottom dropping out. And stock market investors are oblivious to the problems.”
“We’re broke, Schiff added. ”We owe trillions. Look at our budget deficit; look at the debt to GDP ratio, the unfunded liabilities. If we were in the Eurozone, they would kick us out.”
Schiff points out that the market gains experienced recently, with the Dow first topping 14,000 on its way to setting record highs, are giving investors a false sense of security.
“It’s not that the stock market is gaining value… it’s that our money is losing value. And so if you have a debased currency… a devalued currency, the price of everything goes up. Stocks are no exception,” he said.
“The Fed knows that the U.S. economy is not recovering,” he noted. “It simply is being kept from collapse by artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing. As that support goes, the economy will implode.”
noted economist, Schiff has been a fierce critic of the Fed and its policies for years. And his warnings have proven to be prophetic.
In August 2006, when the Dow was hitting new highs nearly every day, Schiff said in an interview: “The United States is like the Titanic, and I’m here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship… I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States.”
Just over a year later, the meltdown that became the Great Recession began, just as Schiff predicted.
He also predicted the subprime mortgage bubble burst, nearly a year before the real estate market fully crashed.
His recent warnings, however, have been even more alarming. Will they also prove to be true?
In his most recent book, “The Real Crash” How to Save Yourself and Your Country“, Schiff writes that
when the “real crash” comes,” it will be worse than the Great Depression.
Unemployment will skyrocket, credit will dry up, and worse, the dollar will collapse completely, “wiping out all savings and sending consumer prices into the stratosphere.”
http://moneymorning.com/ob-article/schiff-us-will-win-currency-war.php?code=3243#.UW3kh6OPBBk
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
The Growth Gap Widens As U.S. Heads Into Another Recession: Real Gross Domestic Product Down From 3.1% in Third Quarter to .1% in Fourth Quarter 2012! — Videos
Gerald Celente Predicts Economic Recession
Gerald Celente – Yahoo!’s The Daily Ticker – February 20, 2013
Gerald Celente: World Bank, Banksters, Coming Collapse.
Peter Schiff – Economic Collapse 2013
Peter Schiff: It’s Going To Hit The Fan During Obama’s Second Term – Fox Business
Peter Schiff: Wall Street’s rising back thanks to the taxpayers
Jim Rogers Asks Whether Obama Is ‘Delusional’ Or ‘Lying’
Chairman Kevin Brady presents his Opening Statement During JEC Hearing
Congressman Paulsen questions witnesses during Hearing on State of US Economy
Rep, Campbell during Joint Economic Committee Hearing on State of US Economy
Bill Gross Warns of Fed Easing ‘Irrational Exuberance Has Unduly Escalated Asset V
Harvey Golub on Fed Monetary Policy: We’re Creating a Series of Bubbles
Marc Faber Odds of World Heading Into Global Recession By 2013 Is 100% Certainty
JIM ROGERS – ‘If You Are Not Worried About 2013, Please – Get Worried’
Jim Rogers author of “Street Smarts” sits down w Glenn Beck on The Blaze TV re.
US to go into recession: Danielle Park
fiscal policy & automatic stabilizers
Austrian Economics versus Mainstream Economics | Mark Thornton
Econ Crisis 2 – Recessions
Old School Macro
Fiscal Policy
Deficits & The Debt
How Do Banks Work?
Central Bank & Monetary Policy
* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,
contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.
| Lisa S. Mataloni: | (202) 606-5304 | (GDP) | gdpniwd@bea.gov |
| Recorded message: | (202) 606-5306 | ||
| Ralph Stewart: | (202) 606-2649 | (News Media) | |
| Jeannine Aversa: | (202) 606-2649 | (News Media) |
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2012 (second estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for
the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP declined 0.1 percent. The
upward revision to the percent change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance
to second estimate of 0.5 percentage point. While today’s release has revised the direction of change in
real GDP, the general picture of the economy for the fourth quarter remains largely the same as what
was presented last month (for more information, see "Revisions" on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed
investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal
government spending, exports, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private
inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government
spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in
imports, and an acceleration in PCE.
_______
FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release. For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major
Components".
_______
Final sales of computers added 0.10 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP
after adding 0.11 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.19
percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.25 percentage point from
the third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.2 percentage point more than in the advance estimate; this
index increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for
gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2
percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.6 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 13.8 percent, compared with an
increase of 8.9 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2
percent. Services increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 9.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 1.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures increased 5.8 percent; it was unchanged in
the third quarter. Equipment and software increased 11.3 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 2.6 percent in the third. Real residential fixed investment increased 17.5 percent, compared
with an increase of 13.5 percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 1.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 4.5 percent, compared
with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 14.8 percent
in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased
22.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 12.9 percent. Nondefense increased 1.8 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 1.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent.
The change in real private inventories subtracted 1.55 percentage points from the fourth-quarter
change in real GDP, after adding 0.73 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $12.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $60.3 billion in the third
and $41.4 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.7
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- decreased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.6 percent in the
third.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
1.0 percent, or $40.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $15,851.2 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 5.9 percent, or $225.4 billion.
Revisions
The "second" estimate of the fourth-quarter percent change in GDP is 0.2 percentage point, or
$9.2 billion, more than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision
to exports, a downward revision to imports, and an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment
that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.
Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP....................................... -0.1 0.1
Current-dollar GDP............................. 0.5 1.0
Gross domestic purchases price index........... 1.3 1.5
2012 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2012 (that is, from the 2011 annual level to the 2012 annual
level), compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in 2011.
The increase in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment,
and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal
government spending and from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected a deceleration in imports, upturns in
residential fixed investment and in private inventory investment and smaller decreases in state and local
government spending and in federal government spending that were partly offset by decelerations in
PCE, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in 2012, compared with an
increase of 2.5 percent in 2011.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.0 percent, or $605.8 billion, in 2012 to a level of $15,681.5
billion, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent, or $576.8 billion, in 2011.
During 2012 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2012),
real GDP increased 1.6 percent. Real GDP increased 2.0 percent during 2011. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent during 2012, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during
2011.
* * *
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting
the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- March 28, 2013 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2012 (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2012
The Coming Collapse and Fall of the United States of America–Doug Casey, Gerald Celente, Marc Faber, Michael Maloney, Jim Rickards, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff — Videos
The Collapse of The American Dream Explained in Animation
The First 12 Hours of a US Dollar Collapse
Doug Casey on the Problem with Glenn Beck’s Galt’s Gulch (and much more)
BEST DOUG CASEY SPEECH EVER! An Anarchist, Economic Collapse & 7 billion Chi
Doug Casey talks to James Turk
Doug Casey interviews Peter Schiff
RAGING CURRENCY WARFARE!
Gerald Celente Economic Collapse IMMINENT Gerald Celente Today
Marc Faber ‘We Are in the End Game’ – Economic Collapse
How does the Global Financial Crisis End – Michael Maloney explains
Jim Rickards: the Fed is Racing to Create Inflation Before the US Economy Implodes
Jim Rogers Predicts Global Depression In 2013-2014
The Dollar Collapse Revisited and a Bull Market in US Treasuries w/Peter Schiff!
Press Conference with FOMC Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Conversations with Casey
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cwc
U.S. Dollar Collapse: Where is Germany’s Gold?
By Peter Schiff
The financial world was shocked this month by a demand from Germany’s Bundesbank to repatriate a large portion of its gold reserves held abroad. By 2020, Germany wants 50% of its total gold reserves back in Frankfurt – including 300 tons from the Federal Reserve. The Bundesbank’s announcement comes just three months after the Fed refused to submit to an audit of its holdings on Germany’s behalf. One cannot help but wonder if the refusal triggered the demand.
Either way, Germany appears to be waking up to a reality for which central banks around the world have been preparing: the dollar is no longer the world’s safe-haven asset and the US government is no longer a trustworthy banker for foreign nations. It looks like their fears are well-grounded, given the Fed’s seeming inability to return what is legally Germany’s gold in a timely manner. Germany is a developed and powerful nation with the second largest gold reserves in the world. If they can’t rely on Washington to keep its promises, who can?
Where is Germany’s Gold?
The impact of Germany’s repatriation on the dollar revolves around an unanswered question: why will it take seven years to complete the transfer?
The popular explanation is that the Fed has already rehypothecated all of its gold holdings in the name of other countries. That is, the same mound of bullion is earmarked as collateral for a host of different lenders. Since the Fed depends on a fractional-reserve banking system for its very existence, it would not come as a surprise that it has become a fractional-reserve bank itself. If so, then perhaps Germany politely asked for a seven-year timeline in order to allow the Fed to save face, and to prevent other depositors from clamoring for their own gold back – a ‘run’ on the Fed.
Now, the Fed can always print more dollars and buy gold on the open market to make up for any shortfall, but such a move could substantially increase the price of gold. The last thing the Fed needs is another gold price spike reminding the world of the dollar’s decline.
Speculation Aside
None of these theories are substantiated, but no matter how you slice it, Germany’s request for its gold does not bode well for the future of the dollar. In fact, the Bundesbank’s official statements are all you need to confirm the Germans’ waning faith in the US.
Last October, after the Bundesbank had requested an audit of its Fed holdings, Executive Board Member Carl-Ludwig Thiele was asked in an interview why the bank kept so much of Germany’s gold overseas. His response emphasized the importance of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency:
Thiele’s statement can lead us to only one conclusion: by keeping fewer reserves in the US, Germany foresees less future need for “US dollar-denominated liquidity.””Gold stored in your home safe is not immediately available as collateral in case you need foreign currency. Take, for instance, the key role that the US dollar plays as a reserve currency in the global financial system. The gold held with the New York Fed can, in a crisis, be pledged with the Federal Reserve Bank as collateral against US dollar-denominated liquidity.”
History Repeats
The whole situation mirrors the late 1960s, during a period that led up to the “Nixon Shock.” Back then, the world was on the Bretton Woods System – an attempt on the part of Western central bankers to pin the dollar to gold at a fixed rate, while still allowing the metal to trade privately as a commodity. This led to a gap between the market price of gold as a commodity and the official price available from the Treasury.
As the true value of gold separated further and further from its official rate, the world began to realize the system was unsustainable, and many suspected the US was not serious about maintaining a strong dollar. West Germany moved first on these fears by redeeming its dollar reserves for gold, followed by France, Switzerland, and others. This eventually culminated in Nixon “closing the gold window” in 1971 by ending any link between the dollar and gold. This “Nixon Shock” spurred chronic inflation throughout the ’70s and a concurrent rally in gold.
Perhaps the entire international community is thinking back to the ’60s, because Germany isn’t the only country maneuvering away from the dollar today. The Netherlands and Azerbaijan are also discussing repatriating their foreign gold holdings. And every month, we hear about central banks increasing gold reserves. The latest are Russia and Kazakhstan, but in the last year, countries from Brazil to Turkey have been adding to their gold holdings in order to diversify away from fiat currency reserves.
And don’t forget China. Once the biggest purchaser of US bonds, it is now a net seller of Treasuries, while simultaneously gobbling up gold. Some sources even claim that China has unofficially surpassed Germany as the second largest holder of gold in the world.
Unlike the ’60s, today there is no official gold window to close. There will be no reported “shock” indicator of a dollar flight. This demand by Germany may be the closest indicator we’re going to get. Placing blame where it’s due, let’s call it the “Bernanke Shock.”
It Takes One to Know One
In last month’s Gold Letter, I wrote about the three pillars supporting the US Treasury’s persistently low interest rates: the Fed, domestic investors, and foreign central banks – led by Japan. I examined how Japan’s plans to radically devalue the yen may undermine that country’s ability to continue buying Treasuries, which could cause the other pillars to become unstable as well.
While private investors and even the Fed might be deluding themselves into believing US bonds are still a viable investment, Germany’s repatriation news makes it clear that foreign governments are no longer buying the propaganda. And why should they? If anyone should appreciate the real constraints the US government is facing, it is other governments.
Our sovereign creditors know that Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama are just regular men in fancy suits. They know the Fed isn’t harboring some ingenious plan for raising interest rates while successfully selling back its worthless mortgage and government securities. Instead, the Fed is like a drug addict making any excuse to get its next fix. [See Bernanke's tell-all interview with Oprah where he confesses to economic doping!]
US investors should be as shocked as the Bundesbank about the Fed’s deception. While we cannot redeem our dollars for gold with the Fed, we can still buy gold with them in the open market. As more investors and governments choose to save in precious metals, the dollar’s value will go into steeper and steeper decline – thereby driving more investors into metals. That’s when the virtuous circle upon which the dollar has coasted for a generation will quickly turn vicious.
Peter Schiff is president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets and Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse. His latest book is The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy, How to Save Yourself and Your Country.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/u-s-dollar-collapse-where-is-germanys-gold/5321894
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Faber and Schiff on Investments in 2013–Bullish On Gold–Bearish On Bonds–Prices Rising–Inflation–Videos
Peter Schiff Interviews Marc Faber On What Will Happen in 2013 – CNBC 1_10_2013
Peter Schiff 2013 – The CPI is nothing but Government Propaganda!
Inflation Propaganda Exposed
he CPI is no longer a tool to accurately measure inflation, but an instrument of propaganda the government uses to hide accelerating inflation from the public and financial markets. Modest CPI increases over the past several years do not reflect an absence of inflation, but a design flaw in the index that fails to fully capture the magnitude of price increases. Central bankers drawing economic conclusions regarding inflation and monetary policy based on this highly flawed data point are making a major policy error.
Note: Prices for the twenty items in our basket rose 44.3% during a ten-year period despite an official rise in the CPI of just 27.5% during the same time frame. But that is using official government numbers to evidence those price increases. However, judging by the inaccuracy of government numbers on other items, such as newspapers and health insurance, the actual rate of increase of the prices of the goods in our basket was likely much higher than what the government claimed!
Peter Schiff 2013 – Big Government is very expensive, if you want it you have to pay for it
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
Schiff on Cliff–Debt Downgrade–$1.5 Trillion Deficit Coming Soon–Videos
Congress Sells America Down the River to Avoid the Fiscal Cliff
Richard Duncan–The New Depression–Videos
The U.S. does not have a capitalist economy
A new depression: Out of credit
Interview With Richard Duncan, Author of The New Depression
Richard Duncan on Riding out this Depression on a Deflationary Debt Raft!
“The New Depression” Book w/ Glenn Beck & Richard Duncan
The New Depression: Richard Duncan | McAlvany Commentary
Pt 1/5: Can governments end the crisis cycle?
Pt 2/5: Can governments end the crisis cycle?
Pt 3/5: Can governments end the crisis cycle?
Pt 4/5: Can governments end the crisis cycle?
Pt 5/5: Can governments end the crisis cycle?
Jim Rogers New Recession/Depression Coming
Peter Schiff interviews Marc Faber on Schiffradio Oct 2012
Why the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it
When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy, Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government’s policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.
In his previous book, The Dollar Crisis (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he’s back to explain what’s next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government’s creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.
- Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great Depression
- Introduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years ahead
- Offers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown
Alarming but essential reading, The New Depression explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.
http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118157796.html
The New Depression: Richard Duncan’s prognosis of our economic ills and the answer to them
“… In a nutshell, his case is half-Austrian. Or indeed half-Keynesian. That is because whilst Duncan’s diagnosis of the current economic ills is very much in the Austrian school of economics, with its emphasis on the role of credit, his prescription for fixing the economy is large-scale borrowing to fund infrastructure work, all of which sounds rather Keynesian.
It is a more fiscally responsible version of Keynesianism than some, for Duncan argues that, “The U.S. government can now borrow money for ten years at a cost of 2 percent interest a year. If it borrows at that rate and invests in projects that yield even 3 percent … on a grand scale in grand projects … [our economy] could be transformed”. In other words, borrow massively to boost economic growth, but spend those funds on projects that will generate future returns which make the borrowing affordable.
Duncan has a particular set of target for his investment plans for the American economy – developing new industries to reduce the trade deficit and generate new tax revenues. In particular, he talks about renewable energy, arguing that massive investment will cut energy bills whilst also providing the sort of financial return that makes the massive spending of money on it a prudent rather than profligate move.
All that means there are three main bones of contention in the book: is Richard Duncan right in blaming the crash on credit conditions; is he right that massive infrastructure investment on projects which pay returns the answer; and if money is to be invested in infrastructure that pays returns, does renewable energy fit the bill? Although a book principally about the US economy and the policy choices faced by Americans, those three questions are very applicable to other countries too, even if his evidence tends to be centred on the USA.
As he mulls over these three questions, most readers will find at least one eye-catching piece of evidence to savour, such as when he describes how heavily the financial system became dependent on credit not going sour:
In 1945 [American] commercial banks held reserves and vault cash of … the equivalent of 12 percent of their total assets … By 2007, the banks’ reserves and vault cash [was] 0.6 percent.
He goes on to argue that
Economic progress was no longer achieved the old-fashioned way through savings and investments, but, rather, by borrowing and consumption … The new reality is that credit has displaced money as the key economic variable.
Hence the book’s subtitle, “The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy”.
Each of the three main questions in themselves could sustain not merely one whole book but a mini-book publishing flurry of titles. To condense credible arguments over all three into one relatively slim and easy to follow volume is tribute to the Duncan, even if some readers may choose to agree with less than all three of the main points of his case. …”
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Ron Paul Fed Lecture Series–Videos
“What is Money?” with Joseph T. Salerno — Ron Paul Money Lecture Series, Pt 1/3
“What is Constitutional Money?” with Edwin Vieira — Ron Paul Money Lecture Series, Pt 2/3
“What About Money Causes Economic Crises?” with Peter Schiff – Ron Paul Money Lecture Series, Pt 3/3
“Why Was the Fed Created?” with George Selgin — Ron Paul Fed Lecture Series, Pt 1/3
“What Does the Fed Do?” with James Grant — Ron Paul Fed Lecture Series, Pt 2/3
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Peter Schiff’s exclusive interview with Allan Meltzer–Video
Peter Schiff’s exclusive interview with Allan Meltzer at The Atlantic Economy Summit
Background Articles and Videos
Allan Meltzer on the History of the Federal Reserve – Part 1
Part 1 of 3: The Process of Writing the History of the Federal Reserve. Allan Meltzer’s much-anticipated second volume of the History of the Federal Reserve was released in spring 2010. These three videos feature Professor Meltzer talking about the Federal Reserve and the process of writing the book.
Allan Meltzer on the History of the Federal Reserve – Part 2
Part 2 of 3: Why Should We Care About The Fed Being Independent? Allan Meltzer’s much-anticipated second volume of the History of the Federal Reserve was released in spring 2010. These three videos feature Professor Meltzer talking about the Federal Reserve and the process of writing the book.
Allan Meltzer on the History of the Federal Reserve – Part 3
A History of the Federal Reserve: A Conversation between Paul Volcker and Allan H. Meltzer
As the Federal Reserve continues to take steps to boost the economy and navigate through an uncertain economic future, Allan H. Meltzer’s acclaimed history of the Federal Reserve uses the past to provide lessons for today’s policymakers and scholars. At this event, Meltzer participates in a discussion of his book A History of the Federal Reserve, 1913–1986 (University of Chicago Press, 2010) with Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve under presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. AEI economist and former Federal Reserve official Vincent R. Reinhart moderates.
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
Slaughtering The PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain)–The Coming Defaults in Sovereign Debt–Euro Collapse–Videos
Axel Merk – Euro Contagion
The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis: Investment Risks and Opportunities
Inside the Issues 2.20 – Sovereign Debtors in Distress
Following the recent CIGI-INET (Institute for New Economic Thinking) conference Sovereign Debtors in Distress, Pierre Siklos explains how European countries have become indebted in an unsustainable manner, and what financial mechanisms and policy options exist for states on the verge of default. A conference participant at Sovereign Debtors, Siklos is also a CIGI Senior Fellow and director of the Viessmann European Research Centre at Wilfrid Laurier University.
CIGI-INET Sovereign Debtors: Conference Overview
The CIGI-INET partnership brings together two world-class organizations that are tackling common problems together. “Sovereign Debtors in Distress” was the first CIGI-INET conference held in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, and focused on unraveling the complex global threat of unsustainable sovereign debt. This video, featuring comments by CIGI Executive Director Thomas Bernes, INET Executive Director Robert Johnson, and the world-leading experts who participated in this conference, provides an overview of the discussions held from February 24-26, 2012.
CIGI-INET Sovereign Debtors: Roadmap for dealing with sovereign debt crises
Sovereign Debtors in Distress conference chair Susan Schadler joins panellists Michael Bordo (Rutgers University), Lewis Alexander (Nomura) and Martin Gilman (Centre for Advanced Studies) to discuss the roadmap for dealing with sovereign debt crises in the future.
CIGI-INET Sovereign Debtors: Institutional reform for sovereign debt crises
CIGI-INET Sovereign Debtors: Lessons from the Past
European Debt Crisis Explained
Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes, Consequences for the United States, and Lessons Learned
Northern EUSSR countries bail out more PIGS (07Apr11)
“SORRY – NO ONE BELIEVES YOU ANY MORE” – Nigel Farage
Debating the collapsing Euro and European economies, part1/2 (21Apr12)
Debating the collapsing Euro and European economies, part2/2 (21Apr12)
Moore Says Europe Debt Default Biggest Risk for Markets
Are Central Bankers just Economic Make-up Artists, Sexing-up Prices?
Debt-ridden Countries IMF’d as “Euro Collapse” threat lures Bailout Bucks w/Michael Hudson
Marc Faber, “The Ego of Mr. Bernanke has been Badly Inflated”
Jim Rogers on Ben Bernanke, the Dollar and “Saving the Saver”
Marc Faber the Great Depression all over again
Marc Faber – When the Government Will Take Your Gold
Stimulus High Fading, Dollar, Gold, History According to Obama
Peter Schiff on Max Keiser Report April 2012
Eurozone’s debt troubles continue
Dutch Government Resigns as Austerity Talks Fail
Euro bounces back on solid Dutch debt sale
Point Break: ‘Spain last nail in Euro-coffin’
Spain sells bonds but pays higher yields
Willem Buiter: Spain And Italy Could Default In Months Or Less
After Second Bailout, Is Greece Still Likely to Default?
Marc Faber – Is Greece Irrelevant for global Markets – 10 feb 2012
Big contrast in Iberian debt
Spain and Italy borrowing rates soar in latest auctions
Borrowing costs for both Spain and Italy rose today in their latest auction of government bonds.
“…Spain’s borrowing rate nearly doubled in a short-term debt auction as investors fretted over the euro zone’s determination to deal with its debts.
And Italy raised nearly €3.5 billion in a short-term bond sale today but at sharply higher interest rates amid fresh concerns over the euro zone outlook, the Bank of Italy said.
The Spanish treasury said it raised €1.933 billion but the timing could hardly have been worse, with financial markets slumping on concern that Europeans are wavering in their commitment to austerity.
The sale of three-month and six-month bills came a day after Spain’s central bank declared the country had plunged back into recession in the first quarter of 2012.
Markets were shaken after a first round of French presidential elections on Sunday put Socialist Francois Hollande, who wants the euro zone to focus on growth rather than austerity, ahead of incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy. The two contenders face off in a final vote May 6.
Further undermining stability, the Netherlands’ government collapsed yesterday after failing to reach agreement over austerity measures, placing its AAA credit rating at risk. But Spain still managed to lure strong interest in the auction with overall demand outstripping supply by more than four-to-one.
The money raised was towards the top of its targeted range of €1-2 billion. But it had to pay a steep price. The borrowing rate leapt to 0.634% from 0.381% for three-month bills and to 1.58% from 0.836% for six month bills, when compared with the last similar auction on March 27.
Spain has promised to cut its public deficit – the annual shortfall of income compared to spending – to 5.3% of gross domestic product in 2012 and just 3% of GDP in 2013. Last year it had allowed the deficit to hit 8.5% of GDP – 2.5 percentage points over target.
Desperate to meet its targets, the government approved €27 billion in fiscal tightening in its 2012 budget, in addition to an earlier round of tax increases and spending cuts amounting to €15.2 billion. …”
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0424/spain-borrowing-rate-soars-for-short-term-debt.html
UPDATE 1-More grief for Greece as recession seen deeper
By George Georgiopoulos
“…Greece’s economy will contract a deeper than expected 5 percent this year, the country’s central bank chief said on Tuesday, piling more pressure on to a citizenry already battered by crippling austerity and record joblessness.
The projection topped a previous forecast the central bank made in March, when it projected the 215 billion euro economy would contract 4.5 percent after a 6.9 percent slump in 2011.
Twice bailed-out Greece is in its fifth consecutive year of recession.
Speaking to shareholders at the central bank’s annual assembly, George Provopoulos, also a European Central Bank Governing Council member, urged strict adherence to reform and fiscal adjustment commitments Greece has agreed with its euro zone partners, saying they were needed to return the economy to sustainable growth.
Athens is under pressure to apply more fiscal austerity to shore up its finances as part of a new rescue package agreed this year with its euro zone partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to avert a chaotic default.
Its continued funding under the 130 billion euro package will hinge on meeting targets.
Provopoulos warned that Greece’s euro zone membership was at stake if it failed to follow through on its pledges, especially after national elections next month.
“If following the election doubts emerge about the new government and society’s will to implement the programme, the current favourable prospects will reverse,” he said.
Greece is set to pick a new government on May 6, with the two main parties in the current coalition seen barely securing a majority in parliament, according to the latest opinion polls.
Whoever wins will have to agree additional spending cuts of 5.5 percent of GDP, or worth about 11 billion euros for 2013-2014, and gather about another 3 billion from better tax collection to keep getting aid, the IMF has said. …”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/24/greece-cenbanker-idUSL5E8FO4VU20120424
Background Articles and Videos
Euro is Dead – Long Live Germany? Anger over PIGS states’ bailout
Future of the US and Europe with Nigel Farage and Lew Rockwell on
Michael Pento, Eurozone Crisis, US Housing Bailouts? – Capital Account (11/11/11)
Gerald Celente talks Trade Wars, Eurozone Breakup, and MF Global
Greek crisis & Euro collapse-On the Edge with Max Keiser-12-02-2011
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
Eat The Rich–Obama’s Big Distraction And Big Lie: The Buffett Rule Tax and The Rich Do Not Pay Their Fair Share–Class Warfare Progressive Propaganda–Videos
Buffett Rule Rebuffed
EAT THE RICH!
Weekly Address: Passing the Buffett Rule So That Everyone Pays Their Fair Share
Priebus: Buffett Tax A Shiny Object That Would Raise Just 11 Hours Of Revenue
Steve Hayes – Buffet Tax meaningless
Gene Sperling on the Buffett Rule
Interview – The Buffett Tax: Anything But “Fair”
Real News: Buffett Rule Tax Reform
GBR: Lies from Warren Buffett
Warren Buffet On Why U.S. Taxes Are Too Low For The Wealthy
Mark Levin – The Warren Buffett-Bill Gates “Tax Us More!”
The Buffett Rule is BS pt1
The Buffett Rule is BS pt2
Debunking Warren Buffett and other tax myths
Who Pays Income Taxes and How Much?
http://www.ntu.org/tax-basics/who-pays-income-taxes.html
Tax Year 2009
|
Percentiles Ranked by AGI |
AGI Threshold on Percentiles |
Percentage of Federal Personal Income Tax Paid |
|
Top 1% |
$343,927 |
36.73 |
|
Top 5% |
$154,643 |
58.66 |
|
Top 10% |
$112,124 |
70.47 |
|
Top 25% |
$66,193 |
87.30 |
|
Top 50% |
$32,396 |
97.75 |
|
Bottom 50% |
<$32,396 |
2.25 |
|
Note: AGI is Adjusted Gross Income |
||
Table 6
Total Income Tax Shares, 1980-2009 (Percent of federal income tax paid by each group)
|
Year |
Total |
Top 0.1% |
Top 1% |
Top 5% |
Between 5% & 10% |
Top 10% |
Between 10% & 25% |
Top 25% |
Between 25% & 50% |
Top 50% |
Bottom 50% |
| 1980 |
100% |
19.05% |
36.84% |
12.44% |
49.28% |
23.74% |
73.02% |
19.93% |
92.95% |
7.05% |
|
| 1981 |
100% |
17.58% |
35.06% |
12.90% |
47.96% |
24.33% |
72.29% |
20.26% |
92.55% |
7.45% |
|
| 1982 |
100% |
19.03% |
36.13% |
12.45% |
48.59% |
23.91% |
72.50% |
20.15% |
92.65% |
7.35% |
|
| 1983 |
100% |
20.32% |
37.26% |
12.44% |
49.71% |
23.39% |
73.10% |
19.73% |
92.83% |
7.17% |
|
| 1984 |
100% |
21.12% |
37.98% |
12.58% |
50.56% |
22.92% |
73.49% |
19.16% |
92.65% |
7.35% |
|
| 1985 |
100% |
21.81% |
38.78% |
12.67% |
51.46% |
22.60% |
74.06% |
18.77% |
92.83% |
7.17% |
|
| 1986 |
100% |
25.75% |
42.57% |
12.12% |
54.69% |
21.33% |
76.02% |
17.52% |
93.54% |
6.46% |
|
|
Tax Reform Act of 1986 changed the definition of AGI, so data above and below this line not strictly comparable |
|||||||||||
| 1987 |
100% |
24.81% |
43.26% |
12.35% |
55.61% |
21.31% |
76.92% |
17.02% |
93.93% |
6.07% |
|
| 1988 |
100% |
27.58% |
45.62% |
11.66% |
57.28% |
20.57% |
77.84% |
16.44% |
94.28% |
5.72% |
|
| 1989 |
100% |
25.24% |
43.94% |
11.85% |
55.78% |
21.44% |
77.22% |
16.94% |
94.17% |
5.83% |
|
| 1990 |
100% |
25.13% |
43.64% |
11.73% |
55.36% |
21.66% |
77.02% |
17.16% |
94.19% |
5.81% |
|
| 1991 |
100% |
24.82% |
43.38% |
12.45% |
55.82% |
21.46% |
77.29% |
17.23% |
94.52% |
5.48% |
|
| 1992 |
100% |
27.54% |
45.88% |
12.12% |
58.01% |
20.47% |
78.48% |
16.46% |
94.94% |
5.06% |
|
| 1993 |
100% |
29.01% |
47.36% |
11.88% |
59.24% |
20.03% |
79.27% |
15.92% |
95.19% |
4.81% |
|
| 1994 |
100% |
28.86% |
47.52% |
11.93% |
59.45% |
20.10% |
79.55% |
15.68% |
95.23% |
4.77% |
|
| 1995 |
100% |
30.26% |
48.91% |
11.84% |
60.75% |
19.62% |
80.36% |
15.03% |
95.39% |
4.61% |
|
| 1996 |
100% |
32.31% |
50.97% |
11.54% |
62.51% |
18.80% |
81.32% |
14.36% |
95.68% |
4.32% |
|
| 1997 |
100% |
33.17% |
51.87% |
11.33% |
63.20% |
18.47% |
81.67% |
14.05% |
95.72% |
4.28% |
|
| 1998 |
100% |
34.75% |
53.84% |
11.20% |
65.04% |
17.65% |
82.69% |
13.10% |
95.79% |
4.21% |
|
| 1999 |
100% |
36.18% |
55.45% |
11.00% |
66.45% |
17.09% |
83.54% |
12.46% |
96.00% |
4.00% |
|
| 2000 |
100% |
37.42% |
56.47% |
10.86% |
67.33% |
16.68% |
84.01% |
12.08% |
96.09% |
3.91% |
|
| 2001 |
100% |
16.06% |
33.89% |
53.25% |
11.64% |
64.89% |
18.01% |
82.90% |
13.13% |
96.03% |
3.97% |
| 2002 |
100% |
15.43% |
33.71% |
53.80% |
11.94% |
65.73% |
18.16% |
83.90% |
12.60% |
96.50% |
3.50% |
| 2003 |
100% |
15.68% |
34.27% |
54.36% |
11.48% |
65.84% |
18.04% |
83.88% |
12.65% |
96.54% |
3.46% |
| 2004 |
100% |
17.44% |
36.89% |
57.13% |
11.07% |
68.19% |
16.67% |
84.86% |
11.85% |
96.70% |
3.30% |
| 2005 |
100% |
19.26% |
39.38% |
59.67% |
10.63% |
70.30% |
15.69% |
85.99% |
10.94% |
96.93% |
3.07% |
| 2006 |
100% |
19.56% |
39.89% |
60.14% |
10.65% |
70.79% |
15.47% |
86.27% |
10.75% |
97.01% |
2.99% |
| 2007 |
100% |
20.19% |
40.41% |
60.61% |
10.59% |
71.20% |
15.37% |
86.57% |
10.54% |
97.11% |
2.89% |
| 2008 |
100% |
18.47% |
38.02% |
58.72% |
11.22% |
69.94% |
16.40% |
86.34% |
10.96% |
97.30% |
2.70% |
| 2009 |
100% |
17.11% |
36.73% |
58.66% |
11.81% |
70.47% |
16.83% |
87.30% |
10.45% |
97.75% |
2.25% |
Source: Internal Revenue Service
http://taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html#table1
Table 8
Average Tax Rate, 1980-2009 (Percent of AGI paid in income taxes)
|
Year |
Total |
Top 0.1% |
Top 1% |
Top 5% |
Between 5% & 10% |
Top 10% |
Between 10% & 25% |
Top 25% |
Between 25% & 50% |
Top 50% |
Bottom 50% |
| 1980 |
15.31% |
34.47% |
26.85% |
17.13% |
23.49% |
14.80% |
19.72% |
11.91% |
17.29% |
6.10% |
|
| 1981 |
15.76% |
33.37% |
26.59% |
18.16% |
23.64% |
15.53% |
20.11% |
12.48% |
17.73% |
6.62% |
|
| 1982 |
14.72% |
31.43% |
25.05% |
16.61% |
22.17% |
14.35% |
18.79% |
11.63% |
16.57% |
6.10% |
|
| 1983 |
13.79% |
30.18% |
23.64% |
15.54% |
20.91% |
13.20% |
17.62% |
10.76% |
15.52% |
5.66% |
|
| 1984 |
13.68% |
29.92% |
23.42% |
15.57% |
20.81% |
12.90% |
17.47% |
10.48% |
15.35% |
5.77% |
|
| 1985 |
13.73% |
29.86% |
23.50% |
15.69% |
20.93% |
12.83% |
17.55% |
10.41% |
15.41% |
5.70% |
|
| 1986 |
14.54% |
33.13% |
25.68% |
15.99% |
22.64% |
12.97% |
18.72% |
10.48% |
16.32% |
5.63% |
|
|
Tax Reform Act of 1986 changed the definition of AGI, so data above and below this line not strictly comparable |
|||||||||||
| 1987 |
13.12% |
26.41% |
22.10% |
14.43% |
19.77% |
11.71% |
16.61% |
9.45% |
14.60% |
5.09% |
|
| 1988 |
13.21% |
24.04% |
21.14% |
14.07% |
19.18% |
11.82% |
16.47% |
9.60% |
14.64% |
5.06% |
|
| 1989 |
13.12% |
23.34% |
20.71% |
13.93% |
18.77% |
12.08% |
16.27% |
9.77% |
14.53% |
5.11% |
|
| 1990 |
12.95% |
23.25% |
20.46% |
13.63% |
18.50% |
12.01% |
16.06% |
9.73% |
14.36% |
5.01% |
|
| 1991 |
12.75% |
24.37% |
20.62% |
13.96% |
18.63% |
11.57% |
15.93% |
9.55% |
14.20% |
4.62% |
|
| 1992 |
12.94% |
25.05% |
21.19% |
13.99% |
19.13% |
11.39% |
16.25% |
9.42% |
14.44% |
4.39% |
|
| 1993 |
13.32% |
28.01% |
22.71% |
14.01% |
20.20% |
11.40% |
16.90% |
9.37% |
14.90% |
4.29% |
|
| 1994 |
13.50% |
28.23% |
23.04% |
14.20% |
20.48% |
11.57% |
17.15% |
9.42% |
15.11% |
4.32% |
|
| 1995 |
13.86% |
28.73% |
23.53% |
14.46% |
20.97% |
11.71% |
17.58% |
9.43% |
15.47% |
4.39% |
|
| 1996 |
14.34% |
28.87% |
24.07% |
14.74% |
21.55% |
11.86% |
18.12% |
9.53% |
15.96% |
4.40% |
|
| 1997 |
14.48% |
27.64% |
23.62% |
14.87% |
21.36% |
12.04% |
18.18% |
9.63% |
16.09% |
4.48% |
|
| 1998 |
14.42% |
27.12% |
23.63% |
14.79% |
21.42% |
11.63% |
18.16% |
9.12% |
16.00% |
4.44% |
|
| 1999 |
14.85% |
27.53% |
24.18% |
15.06% |
21.98% |
11.76% |
18.66% |
9.12% |
16.43% |
4.48% |
|
| 2000 |
15.26% |
27.45% |
24.42% |
15.48% |
22.34% |
12.04% |
19.09% |
9.28% |
16.86% |
4.60% |
|
| 2001 |
14.23% |
28.20% |
27.50% |
23.68% |
14.89% |
21.41% |
11.58% |
18.08% |
8.91% |
15.85% |
4.09% |
| 2002 |
13.03% |
28.49% |
27.25% |
22.95% |
13.87% |
20.51% |
10.47% |
16.99% |
7.67% |
14.66% |
3.21% |
| 2003 |
11.90% |
24.64% |
24.31% |
20.74% |
12.22% |
18.49% |
9.54% |
15.38% |
7.12% |
13.35% |
2.95% |
| 2004 |
12.10% |
23.09% |
23.49% |
20.67% |
12.28% |
18.60% |
9.26% |
15.53% |
7.01% |
13.51% |
2.97% |
| 2005 |
12.45% |
22.52% |
23.13% |
20.78% |
12.37% |
18.84% |
9.27% |
15.86% |
6.93% |
13.84% |
2.98% |
| 2006 |
12.60% |
21.98% |
22.79% |
20.68% |
12.60% |
18.86% |
9.36% |
15.95% |
7.01% |
13.98% |
3.01% |
| 2007 |
12.68% |
21.46% |
22.45% |
20.53% |
12.66% |
18.79% |
9.43% |
15.98% |
7.01% |
14.03% |
2.99% |
| 2008 |
12.24% |
22.70% |
23.27% |
20.70% |
12.44% |
18.71% |
9.29% |
15.68% |
6.75% |
13.65% |
2.59% |
| 2009 |
11.06% |
24.28% |
24.01% |
20.46% |
11.36% |
18.05% |
8.25% |
14.68% |
5.56% |
12.50% |
1.85% |
Source: Internal Revenue Service
http://taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html#table1
Obama Pushes ‘Buffett Rule’ in Florida
Obama’s Capital Gains Tax “Fairness”
Obama Presses ‘Buffett Rule’ Tax Pitch
RED ALERT: Buffett Rule Is Criminal Scam!
Obama Pushes “Buffett Rule” and Calls for More Romney Tax Returns
Dan Mitchell Debating the Buffett Rule on CNBC
Obama is yet again pushing the “Buffett Rule” while lying about taxes
Six Reasons Why the Capital Gains Tax Should Be Abolished
Indexing the Capital Gains Tax to Protect Taxpayers from Inflation
End Capital Gains and Dividends Tax
Dan Mitchell on Taxing the Rich
Warren Buffett’s Reported Plans to Avoid Taxes and the Buffett Rule
Obama: ‘Buffett Rule’ Would Raise Taxes for Rich
Warren Buffett’s Tax Rate is Lower than His Secretary’s
Warren Buffett, Secretary Debbie Bosanek Discuss Tax Rate Inequality in
Opinion: The Buffett Tax Folly
Flat Tax vs. National Sales Tax
Ron Paul_ End the IRS & Abolish the Income Tax forever
Buffett Rule Fails in Senate, 51-45
By Josh Barro,
“…the so-called Buffett Rule (imposing a minimum 30 percent federal income tax rate on those making at least $2 million per year) came up for a vote in the Senate and was defeated. There were 51 votes in favor and 45 opposed, but 60 votes were required for cloture and so the proposal could not proceed.
The vote was nearly along party lines, with Susan Collins (Maine) the only Republican to vote yes and Mark Pryor (Arkansas) the only Democrat to vote no. Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, also broke with his party and opposed the proposal, though he wasn’t in Washington D.C. today and so didn’t actually cast a vote. Lieberman said “I am opposed to the Buffett Rule because it would double to 30 percent the capital gains tax on one group of investors”—a statement that reflects the fact that the Buffett Rule debate is fundamentally a debate about whether we should have a preferential tax rate for capital gains. …”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbarro/2012/04/16/buffett-rule-fails-in-senate-51-45/
Dems Lay Trap for GOP with Buffett Rule
By KIM DIXON and PATRICK TEMPLE-WEST, Reuters
“….President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats are laying a political trap for Republicans to be sprung on Monday when the U.S. Senate is slated to vote on the proposed “Buffett Rule,” which would slap a minimum tax on the highest-income Americans. With polls showing strong public support for the rule, Democrats plan to bring it up for a procedural vote in the Senate. Republicans are solidly against it and the proposal is not expected to garner enough votes to move forward.
Even if it does advance in the Senate, it is not expected to be taken up in the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans. Democrats control the Senate, but just barely. Despite the proposal’s poor outlook, Democrats hope that the Senate vote and the debate around it will help them politically ahead of the November 6 elections by casting the Republicans and their presumptive presidential candidate Mitt Romney, himself a multi-millionaire, as the party of the wealthy.
Republicans have attacked the Buffett Rule as a diversion from the weak economy. They also argue that raising taxes on the rich would hit small businesses and discourage their growth. Here is a Q+A on the legislation and the issues behind it.
What Is the Buffett Rule?
Named after billionaire Warren Buffett, who backs it, the rule would require individuals with adjusted gross income of more than $1 million, or $500,000 for married individuals filing separately, to pay at least 30 percent in taxes. Democrats have been careful to stress that the tax would not apply to people with $1 million or more in assets, who comprise a much larger slice of the U.S. population than those with annual incomes of $1 million or more. About 433,000 U.S. households earn more than $1 million a year. That is only about 0.3 percent of all taxpayers, according to the Tax Policy Center, a research group. The bill being voted on in the Senate, sponsored by Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, would impose the 30-percent tax on adjusted gross income after a modified deduction for charitable giving and certain other tax credits. …”
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2012/04/16/Dems-Lay-Trap-for-GOP-with-Buffett-Rule.aspx#page1
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Death of a conservative activist: Andrew Breitbart (1969-2012)–Videos
Andrew Breitbart speaking at Tea Party rally at Independence Mall in Philadelphia in July 31, 2010
IN MEMORIAM, ANDREW BREITBART: PJTV Remembers a True Patriot and Friend
“PJTV’s Roger L. Simon, Bill Whittle, Lionel Chetwynd and Stephen Kruiser remember the energy and impact of the great Andrew Breitbart. From his internet savvy, to his willingness to battle ACORN and the left, Andrew Breitbart will be greatly missed by the PJ Media community.”
The Bully! Pulpit Show: Mark Joseph interviews Andrew Breitbart
Andrew Breitbart at The Heritage Foundation
Andrew Breitbart: Father, Husband, Patriot, Warrior
Tribute to Andrew Breitbart 1969-2012
Andrew Breitbart Big Government
Gone Without a Clue: The Suspicious Death of Andrew Breitbart
Andrew Breitbart – From Mindless Liberal to Conscious Conservative
Rush Limbaugh remembers Andrew Breitbart (1969-2012)
CNN: Arianna Huffington remembers Andrew Breitbart
Michael Savage on the Passing of Andrew Breitbart – (Radio Commentary Aired on March 1, 2012)
Glenn Beck Discusses Andrew Breitbart’s Death P1
Glenn Beck Discusses Andrew Breitbart’s Death P2
Glenn Beck Discusses Andrew Breitbart’s Death P3
Alex Jones – Andrew Breitbart Mysteriously Dies Before Releasing Damaging Obama Video
Is This What Killed Andrew Breitbart? The CIA Heart-Attack Gun
Last Interview with Andrew Breitbart
Peter Schiff’s interview with Andrew Breitbart (May 23, 2011)
Cenk Uygur interviews Andrew Breitbart
Andrew Breitbart on his Legacy “I want the left to know they screwed with the wrong guy!”
Dylan Ratigan Interviews Andrew Breitbart
Andrew Breitbart’s epic interview on MSNBC
On March 1, conservative activist, blogger and new media publisher, Andrew Breitbart, collapsed and died of an apparent heart attack shortly after midnight while walking near his home in Westwood, California. A bystander saw him collapse and called paramedics. They rushed him to Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center, where he was declared dead. The Los Angeles Coroner’s Office will be conducting an autopsy.
Breitbart spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference 2012 on Feb. 10, where he made a surprise announcement about videos he claimed to have of Barack Obama from his college days:
“This election we are going to vet him from his college days to show you why racial division and class warfare are central to what hope and change was sold in 2008. The videos are going to come out and the narrative is going to come out. That Barack Obama met a bunch of silver ponytails in 1980s, like Bill (Ayers) and Bernadine (Dohrn), equally radical, who said one day we would have the presidency, and the rest of us slept as they plotted, and they plotted, and they plotted and they oversaw hundreds of millions of dollars in the Annenberg Challenge and they had real money, from real capitalists. …Then they became communists. We got to work on that. That is a parenthesis. Barack Obama is a radical, we should not be afraid to say that! Okay? And Barack Obama was launched from Bill and Bernadine’s salon. I’ve been there.”
Breitbart’s entire CPAC 2012 speech can be viewed on YouTube.
Andrew Breitbart at CPAC 2012 02102012 – FULL SPEECH
Andrew Breitbart Just Another Weird Death
Did OBAMA KILL Andrew Breitbart?
Obama’s Black Reparations and Redistributing The Wealth Scandal–The Pigford Fraud
Pigford: Claimants Win. Lawyers Win. You Lose
Andrew Breitbart on the Pigford story, part 1
Andrew Breitbart on the Pigford story, part 2
Andrew Breitbart ~ Part 7 of 8
Andrew Breitbart ~ Part 8 of 8
Glenn Beck -SHIRLEY SHERROD Obama Fired Her for being Black
Andrew Breitbart’s epic interview on MSNBC
Shirley Sherrod: the FULL video
Andrew Breitbart: Glenn Beck “Screwed the Pooch”
CNN: 2010, Andrew Breitbart defends Sherrod video
Michael Savage interviews Andrew Breitbart on Shirley Sherrod Controversy Part 1
Michael Savage interviews Andrew Breitbart on Shirley Sherrod Controversy Part 2
Michael Savage interviews Andrew Breitbart on Shirley Sherrod Controversy Part 3
Michael Savage talks to Andrew Breitbart about the Shirley Sherrod Controversy Part 4
Michael Savage talks to Andrew Breitbart about the Shirley Sherrod Controversy Part 5
Michael Savage talks to Andrew Breitbart about the Shirley Sherrod Controversy Part 6.
Michael Savage talks to Rep. Steve King about the Shirley Sherrod linked Pigford Affair
For 10 years Breitbart had been an editor of the Drudge Report website and researcher for Arianna Huffington who he helped launch The Huffington Post web publication.
Breitbart published his own websites breitbart.com and a video blog breitbarttv.com and the “bigs” websites–Big Government, Big Hollywood, Big Journalism and Big Peace.
His Big Journalism website posted on May 28, 2011, a sexually explicit photo of New York Rep. Anthony Weiner. The congressman had sent a 21-year-old college student a link to the photograph. On June 8, 2011, Brietbart reported that Weiner has sent other photos. Weiner resigned from Congress on June 21, 2011.
Weiner Takes on Blitzer over Weinergate
Breitbart at Rep. Weiner’s press conference
Dennis Miller Interviews Andrew Breitbart About Anthony Weiner And The Jokes Came Naturally
Weiner apologizes to wife, family and Andrew Breitbart
In 2009 Breitbart and his Big Government website assisted in the demise of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN). Videos of Hannah Giles, who posed as a prostitute, and James O’Keefe, her boyfriend, meeting with ACORN staff in several offices were aired on both the Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity television shows and Fox News. ACORN was subsequently liquidated in November 2010.
PJTV: How Breitbart Conquered ACORN (and the MSM)
Barack Obama – ACORN Will Shape My Domestic Policy
Glenn Beck 20090910 Part 1/4
Glenn Beck 20090910 Part 2/4
Glenn Beck 20090910 Part 3/4
Glenn Beck 20090910 Part 4/4
Much More Footage From The ACORN Prostitution Slavery Sting In Baltimore MA
Hannah Giles Interviewed on Red Eye
Glenn Beck – Hannah poses as a prostitute to ACORN worker
Hannity Interviews Couple Behind ACORN “Pimp And Prostitute” Video
Sean Hannity with Hannah Giles, Andrew Breitbart discuss ACORN
Sean Hannity, Hannah Giles and Andrew Breitbart discuss ACORN San Diego undercover operation
Sean Hannity, Hannah Giles and Andrew Breitbart discuss ACORN San Bernadino
Michael Savage Interviews Andrew Breitbart on ACORN Investigation -(Part 1 of 2)- September 18, 2009
Michael Savage Interviews Andrew Breitbart on ACORN Investigation -(Part 2 of 2)- September 18, 2009
Death Of A Breitbart
He wrote a weekly column for the Washington Times and his work was also published by the National Review Online, the Weekly Standard Online and the Wall Street Journal.
Breitbart wrote two bestsellers, “Hollywood, Interrupted: Insanity Chic in Babylon — the Case Against Celebrity,” in 2004 and “Righteous Indignation: Excuse Me While I Save the World,” in 2011. He recently wrote a new conclusion to “Righteous Indignation” where he said:
“I love my job. I love fighting for what I believe in. I love having fun while doing it. I love reporting stories that the Complex refuses to report. I love fighting back, I love finding allies, and—famously—I enjoy making enemies.
Three years ago, I was mostly a behind-the-scenes guy who linked to stuff on a very popular website. I always wondered what it would be like to enter the public realm to fight for what I believe in. I’ve lost friends, perhaps dozens. But I’ve gained hundreds, thousands—who knows?—of allies. At the end of the day, I can look at myself in the mirror, and I sleep very well at night.”
The Politics of Hollywood with Andrew Breitbart
Andrew Breitbart — Media War
Breitbart was 43 and is survived by his wife, Susie Bean, daughter of actor Orson Bean, and four young children.
[Raymond Thomas Pronk is host of the Pronk Pops Show on KDUX web radio from 3-5 p.m. Wednesdays and author of the companion blog www.pronkpops.wordpress.com]
Background Articles and Videos
PART 1 Glenn Beck – Soros puts “hit” on Beck – 10-20-2010
PART 2 Glenn Beck – Soros puts “hit” on Beck – 10-20-2010
‘youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5yaINo2-xw&feature=related]
PART 1: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-8-2010 DAY 1
PART 2: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-8-2010 DAY 1
PART 3: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-8-2010 DAY 1
PART 1: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-9-2010 DAY 2
PART 2: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-9-2010 DAY 2
PART 3: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-9-2010 DAY 2
PART 1: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-10-2010 DAY 3
PART 2: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-10-2010 DAY 3
PART 3: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-10-2010 DAY 3
PART 1: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-11-2010 DAY 4
PART 2: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-11-2010 DAY 4
PART 3: Glenn Beck: George Soros’ New World Order Exposed, 11-11-2010 DAY 4
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Background Articles and Videos
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Declines
30 Aug. 2011
“…The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved slightly in July, plummeted in August. The Index now stands at 44.5 (1985=100), down from 59.2 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased to 33.3 from 35.7. The Expectations Index decreased to 51.9 from 74.9 last month.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 18th.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in August, as consumers grew significantly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The index is now at its lowest level in more than two years (April 2009, 40.8). A contributing factor may have been the debt ceiling discussions since the decline in confidence was well underway before the S&P downgrade. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions, on the other hand, posted only a modest decline as employment conditions continue to suppress confidence.”
Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions weakened further in August. Consumers claiming business conditions are “bad” increased to 40.6 percent from 38.7 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “good” inched up to 13.7 percent from 13.5 percent. Consumers’ assessment of employment conditions was more pessimistic than last month. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 49.1 percent from 44.8 percent, while those stating jobs are “plentiful” declined to 4.7 percent from 5.1 percent. …”
http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
Consumer confidence plunges to lowest level since Great Recession
By Annalyn Censky
“…Americans are now as pessimistic about the U.S. economy as they were in the middle of the Great Recession.
A key reading on consumer confidence plunged in August, to its lowest level since April 2009. The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index for August fell to 44.5, down from 59.2 in July.
The gloomy outlook came as Congress allowed its debt ceiling debates to drag on until nearly the last minute and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating earlier in the month. At the same time, consumers were also being weighed down by 9.1% unemployment, a roller-coaster month for stocks and a still-distressed real estate market.
According to the latest index, consumers grew more pessimistic not only about the present-day economy, but also about their future prospects.
The so-called Expectations Index took a 23-point dive, falling to 51.9 from 74.9 in July. It marked the largest point drop since the Great Recession’s heyday.
About 49% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get.” Only 11.8% said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, and 24.6% said they expect conditions to worsen.
The Consumer Confidence numbers are based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households and are closely watched because consumer spending makes up 70% of the nation’s economic activity. …”
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/30/news/economy/consumer_confidence/
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 26, 2011
The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year’s topic, long-term economic growth, is indeed pertinent–as has so often been the case at this symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth, might not now be facing a prolonged period of stagnation, regardless of its public policy choices. Might not the very slow pace of economic expansion of the past few years, not only in the United States but also in a number of other advanced economies, morph into something far more long-lasting?
I can certainly appreciate these concerns and am fully aware of the challenges that we face in restoring economic and financial conditions conducive to healthy growth, some of which I will comment on today. With respect to longer-run prospects, however, my own view is more optimistic. As I will discuss, although important problems certainly exist, the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years. It may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals. In the interim, however, the challenges for U.S. economic policymakers are twofold: first, to help our economy further recover from the crisis and the ensuing recession, and second, to do so in a way that will allow the economy to realize its longer-term growth potential. Economic policies should be evaluated in light of both of those objectives.
This morning I will offer some thoughts on why the pace of recovery in the United States has, for the most part, proved disappointing thus far, and I will discuss the Federal Reserve’s policy response. I will then turn briefly to the longer-term prospects of our economy and the need for our country’s economic policies to be effective from both a shorter-term and longer-term perspective.
Near-Term Prospects for the Economy and Policy
In discussing the prospects for the economy and for policy in the near term, it bears recalling briefly how we got here. The financial crisis that gripped global markets in 2008 and 2009 was more severe than any since the Great Depression. Economic policymakers around the world saw the mounting risks of a global financial meltdown in the fall of 2008 and understood the extraordinarily dire economic consequences that such an event could have. As I have described in previous remarks at this forum, governments and central banks worked forcefully and in close coordination to avert the looming collapse. The actions to stabilize the financial system were accompanied, both in the United States and abroad, by substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus. But notwithstanding these strong and concerted efforts, severe damage to the global economy could not be avoided. The freezing of credit, the sharp drops in asset prices, dysfunction in financial markets, and the resulting blows to confidence sent global production and trade into free fall in late 2008 and early 2009.
We meet here today almost exactly three years since the beginning of the most intense phase of the financial crisis and a bit more than two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research’s date for the start of the economic recovery. Where do we stand?
There have been some positive developments over the past few years, particularly when considered in the light of economic prospects as viewed at the depth of the crisis. Overall, the global economy has seen significant growth, led by the emerging-market economies. In the United States, a cyclical recovery, though a modest one by historical standards, is in its ninth quarter. In the financial sphere, the U.S. banking system is generally much healthier now, with banks holding substantially more capital. Credit availability from banks has improved, though it remains tight in categories–such as small business lending–in which the balance sheets of potential borrowers remain impaired. Companies with access to the public bond markets have had no difficulty obtaining credit on favorable terms. Importantly, structural reform is moving forward in the financial sector, with ambitious domestic and international efforts underway to enhance the capital and liquidity of banks, especially the most systemically important banks; to improve risk management and transparency; to strengthen market infrastructure; and to introduce a more systemic, or macroprudential, approach to financial regulation and supervision.
In the broader economy, manufacturing production in the United States has risen nearly 15 percent since its trough, driven substantially by growth in exports. Indeed, the U.S. trade deficit has been notably lower recently than it was before the crisis, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, and productivity gains in some industries have been impressive, though new data have reduced estimates of overall productivity improvement in recent years. Households also have made some progress in repairing their balance sheets–saving more, borrowing less, and reducing their burdens of interest payments and debt. Commodity prices have come off their highs, which will reduce the cost pressures facing businesses and help increase household purchasing power.
Notwithstanding these more positive developments, however, it is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. From the latest comprehensive revisions to the national accounts as well as the most recent estimates of growth in the first half of this year, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery even weaker than we had thought; indeed, aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it attained before the crisis. Importantly, economic growth has for the most part been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment, which has recently been fluctuating a bit above 9 percent. Temporary factors, including the effects of the run-up in commodity prices on consumer and business budgets and the effect of the Japanese disaster on global supply chains and production, were part of the reason for the weak performance of the economy in the first half of 2011; accordingly, growth in the second half looks likely to improve as their influence recedes. However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been at work.
Why has the recovery from the crisis been so slow and erratic? Historically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand. As the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. Improving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum.
These restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.
Notably, the housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II, but this time–with an overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and ongoing concerns by both potential borrowers and lenders about continued house price declines–the rate of new home construction has remained at less than one-third of its pre-crisis level. The low level of construction has implications not only for builders but for providers of a wide range of goods and services related to housing and homebuilding. Moreover, even as tight credit for some borrowers has been one of the factors restraining housing recovery, the weakness of the housing sector has in turn had adverse effects on financial markets and on the flow of credit. For example, the sharp declines in house prices in some areas have left many homeowners “underwater” on their mortgages, creating financial hardship for households and, through their effects on rates of mortgage delinquency and default, stress for financial institutions as well. Financial pressures on financial institutions and households have contributed, in turn, to greater caution in the extension of credit and to slower growth in consumer spending.
I have already noted the central role of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 in sparking the recession. As I also noted, a great deal has been done and is being done to address the causes and effects of the crisis, including a substantial program of financial reform, and conditions in the U.S. banking system and financial markets have improved significantly overall. Nevertheless, financial stress has been and continues to be a significant drag on the recovery, both here and abroad. Bouts of sharp volatility and risk aversion in markets have recently re-emerged in reaction to concerns about both European sovereign debts and developments related to the U.S. fiscal situation, including the recent downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by one of the major rating agencies and the controversy concerning the raising of the U.S. federal debt ceiling. It is difficult to judge by how much these developments have affected economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence and that they pose ongoing risks to growth. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor developments in financial markets and institutions closely and is in frequent contact with policymakers in Europe and elsewhere.
Monetary policy must be responsive to changes in the economy and, in particular, to the outlook for growth and inflation. As I mentioned earlier, the recent data have indicated that economic growth during the first half of this year was considerably slower than the Federal Open Market Committee had been expecting, and that temporary factors can account for only a portion of the economic weakness that we have observed. Consequently, although we expect a moderate recovery to continue and indeed to strengthen over time, the Committee has marked down its outlook for the likely pace of growth over coming quarters. With commodity prices and other import prices moderating and with longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable, we expect inflation to settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below the rate of 2 percent, or a bit less, that most Committee participants view as being consistent with our dual mandate.
In light of its current outlook, the Committee recently decided to provide more specific forward guidance about its expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate. In particular, in the statement following our meeting earlier this month, we indicated that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. That is, in what the Committee judges to be the most likely scenarios for resource utilization and inflation in the medium term, the target for the federal funds rate would be held at its current low levels for at least two more years.
In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (the 20th and the 21st) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion. The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Economic Policy and Longer-Term Growth in the United States
The financial crisis and its aftermath have posed severe challenges around the globe, particularly in the advanced industrial economies. Thus far I have reviewed some of those challenges, offered some diagnoses for the slow economic recovery in the United States, and briefly discussed the policy response by the Federal Reserve. However, this conference is focused on longer-run economic growth, and appropriately so, given the fundamental importance of long-term growth rates in the determination of living standards. In that spirit, let me turn now to a brief discussion of the longer-run prospects for the U.S. economy and the role of economic policy in shaping those prospects.
Notwithstanding the severe difficulties we currently face, I do not expect the long-run growth potential of the U.S. economy to be materially affected by the crisis and the recession if–and I stress if–our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome. Over the medium term, housing activity will stabilize and begin to grow again, if for no other reason than that ongoing population growth and household formation will ultimately demand it. Good, proactive housing policies could help speed that process. Financial markets and institutions have already made considerable progress toward normalization, and I anticipate that the financial sector will continue to adapt to ongoing reforms while still performing its vital intermediation functions. Households will continue to strengthen their balance sheets, a process that will be sped up considerably if the recovery accelerates but that will move forward in any case. Businesses will continue to invest in new capital, adopt new technologies, and build on the productivity gains of the past several years. I have confidence that our European colleagues fully appreciate what is at stake in the difficult issues they are now confronting and that, over time, they will take all necessary and appropriate steps to address those issues effectively and comprehensively.
This economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way. Moreover, we will need to remain alert to risks to the recovery, including financial risks. However, with one possible exception on which I will elaborate in a moment, the healing process should not leave major scars. Notwithstanding the trauma of the crisis and the recession, the U.S. economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of international competitiveness that, if anything, has improved in recent years. Our economy retains its traditional advantages of a strong market orientation, a robust entrepreneurial culture, and flexible capital and labor markets. And our country remains a technological leader, with many of the world’s leading research universities and the highest spending on research and development of any nation.
Of course, the United States faces many growth challenges. Our population is aging, like those of many other advanced economies, and our society will have to adapt over time to an older workforce. Our K-12 educational system, despite considerable strengths, poorly serves a substantial portion of our population. The costs of health care in the United States are the highest in the world, without fully commensurate results in terms of health outcomes. But all of these long-term issues were well known before the crisis; efforts to address these problems have been ongoing, and these efforts will continue and, I hope, intensify.
The quality of economic policymaking in the United States will heavily influence the nation’s longer-term prospects. To allow the economy to grow at its full potential, policymakers must work to promote macroeconomic and financial stability; adopt effective tax, trade, and regulatory policies; foster the development of a skilled workforce; encourage productive investment, both private and public; and provide appropriate support for research and development and for the adoption of new technologies.
The Federal Reserve has a role in promoting the longer-term performance of the economy. Most importantly, monetary policy that ensures that inflation remains low and stable over time contributes to long-run macroeconomic and financial stability. Low and stable inflation improves the functioning of markets, making them more effective at allocating resources; and it allows households and businesses to plan for the future without having to be unduly concerned with unpredictable movements in the general level of prices. The Federal Reserve also fosters macroeconomic and financial stability in its role as a financial regulator, a monitor of overall financial stability, and a liquidity provider of last resort.
Normally, monetary or fiscal policies aimed primarily at promoting a faster pace of economic recovery in the near term would not be expected to significantly affect the longer-term performance of the economy. However, current circumstances may be an exception to that standard view–the exception to which I alluded earlier. Our economy is suffering today from an extraordinarily high level of long-term unemployment, with nearly half of the unemployed having been out of work for more than six months. Under these unusual circumstances, policies that promote a stronger recovery in the near term may serve longer-term objectives as well. In the short term, putting people back to work reduces the hardships inflicted by difficult economic times and helps ensure that our economy is producing at its full potential rather than leaving productive resources fallow. In the longer term, minimizing the duration of unemployment supports a healthy economy by avoiding some of the erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force that is often associated with long-term unemployment.
Notwithstanding this observation, which adds urgency to the need to achieve a cyclical recovery in employment, most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank. We have heard a great deal lately about federal fiscal policy in the United States, so I will close with some thoughts on that topic, focusing on the role of fiscal policy in promoting stability and growth.
To achieve economic and financial stability, U.S. fiscal policy must be placed on a sustainable path that ensures that debt relative to national income is at least stable or, preferably, declining over time. As I have emphasized on previous occasions, without significant policy changes, the finances of the federal government will inevitably spiral out of control, risking severe economic and financial damage.1 The increasing fiscal burden that will be associated with the aging of the population and the ongoing rise in the costs of health care make prompt and decisive action in this area all the more critical.
Although the issue of fiscal sustainability must urgently be addressed, fiscal policymakers should not, as a consequence, disregard the fragility of the current economic recovery. Fortunately, the two goals of achieving fiscal sustainability–which is the result of responsible policies set in place for the longer term–and avoiding the creation of fiscal headwinds for the current recovery are not incompatible. Acting now to put in place a credible plan for reducing future deficits over the longer term, while being attentive to the implications of fiscal choices for the recovery in the near term, can help serve both objectives.
Fiscal policymakers can also promote stronger economic performance through the design of tax policies and spending programs. To the fullest extent possible, our nation’s tax and spending policies should increase incentives to work and to save, encourage investments in the skills of our workforce, stimulate private capital formation, promote research and development, and provide necessary public infrastructure. We cannot expect our economy to grow its way out of our fiscal imbalances, but a more productive economy will ease the tradeoffs that we face.
Finally, and perhaps most challenging, the country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions. The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in job-creating U.S. businesses. Although details would have to be negotiated, fiscal policymakers could consider developing a more effective process that sets clear and transparent budget goals, together with budget mechanisms to establish the credibility of those goals. Of course, formal budget goals and mechanisms do not replace the need for fiscal policymakers to make the difficult choices that are needed to put the country’s fiscal house in order, which means that public understanding of and support for the goals of fiscal policy are crucial.
Economic policymakers face a range of difficult decisions, relating to both the short-run and long-run challenges we face. I have no doubt, however, that those challenges can be met, and that the fundamental strengths of our economy will ultimately reassert themselves. The Federal Reserve will certainly do all that it can to help restore high rates of growth and employment in a context of price stability.
1. See Ben S. Bernanke (2011), “Fiscal Sustainability,” speech delivered at the Annual Conference of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Washington, June 14.
http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110826a.htm
Economic Growth Slows to Crawl, GDP Increase at 1%
“…Gross domestic product growth rose at annual rate of 1.0 percent the Commerce Department said, a downward revision of its prior estimate of 1.3 percent. It also said after-tax corporate profits rose at the fastest pace in a year.
Economists had expected output growth to be revised down to 1.1 percent. In the first quarter, the economy advanced just 0.4 percent. The government’s second GDP estimate for the quarter confirmed growth almost stalled in the first six months of this year.
The United States is on a recession watch after a massive sell-off in the stock market knocked down consumer and business sentiment. The plunge in share prices followed Standard & Poor’s decision to strip the nation of its top notch AAA credit rating and a spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
While sentiment has deteriorated, data such as industrial production, retail sales and employment suggest the economy could avoid an outright contraction. …”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44285105
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Research Update:
United States of America Long-Term Rating
Lowered To ‘AA+’ On Political Risks And
Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative
Overview
· We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United
States of America to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’ and affirmed the ‘A-1+’ short-term
rating.
· We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from
CreditWatch negative.
· The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan
that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of
what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s
medium-term debt dynamics.
· More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness,
stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political
institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic
challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a
negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
· Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the
gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us
pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be
able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal
consolidation plan that stabilizes the government’s debt dynamics any
time soon.
· The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the
long-term rating to ‘AA’ within the next two years if we see that less
reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new
fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government
debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
President Obama’s Statement on Credit Downgrade
Peter Schiff: Welcome to the Twilight Zone
Obama Has Dictatorial Power To Confiscate Europe’s Gold
S&P: Why we downgraded the U.S.
Ron Paul On Neil Cavuto: Talks about The AAA Rating Downgrade To AA+
S&P Downgrades US Credit Rating From AAA
S&P Downgrades US Credit Rating (First Time IN HISTORY)
Deficits, Debts and Unfunded Liabilities: The Consequences of Excessive Government Spending
The Austrians Were Right
Peter Schiff on Charles Adler (8/5/11)
“The market going down has nothing to do with S&P downgrade” Jim Rogers
The Fed’s ‘Fictitious’ Debt – Can the US Treasury just stiff the fed?
Peter Schiff On Freedom Watch- 1 8 2011 – The US will default through inflation
Peter Schiff – ‘Recession is coming back’
Peter Schiff: More Money is about to be Dropped from Helicopters
AAA-rmageddon: S&P downgrade knocks off US credit crown
S&P downgrades US debt outlook-On the Edge with Max Keiser-04-29-2011-(Part1)
S&P downgrades US debt outlook-On the Edge with Max Keiser-04-29-2011-(Part2)
Interview on Credit Rating Agencies
The essence of the problem is simply massive Federal Government spending and not too little tax revenues.
President Obama’s is one of the primary causes of the problem with his ridiculous budget proposal that was voted down in the Senate by 97 Senators voting No!
President Obama’s call for a ” balanced approach” to the budget or massive tax increases in 2013 and beyond as the economy enters another recession is a firm indication that he is an economic illiterate, out of touch with economic reality and deserves to be fired next November for incompetence and the damage his economic policies to the American people.
Instead of running deficits over the next ten years of $7,000 to $8,000 billion and increasing the national debt by another $7,000 to $8,000 billion, the size of the Federal Governments needs to cut by about 30% to 50% and the national debt reduced over the several decades.
This would require actually cutting entitlement programs ( Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and welfare), national defense spending, and all other spending by permanently closing between eight to ten Federal Departments, many agencies, and hundreds of government programs.
Also the Federal income tax system needs to be replaced by the FairTax to encourage economic growth by increasing savings and investment which would in turn reduce unemployment and the Federal deficit.
The FairTax: It’s Time
Lugar Cosponsors the FairTax
Neither the Democratic or Republican political establishments have the vision, will or courage to do this.
While the majority of the American people are prepared for and calling for a huge downsizing of the Federal Government, the political ruling class is opposed to any significant reduction in the size and scope of the Federal Government.
For both political parties most of their campaign contributions come from those companies and individuals who directly benefit from an ever larger and expanding Federal Government and a National Debt.
This includes bankers and financial institutions, the military industrial complex, lawyers, lobbyists, unions, just to name a few of the big campaign contributors.
S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA
“…The United States has lost its sterling credit rating from Standard & Poor’s.
The credit rating agency on Friday lowered the nation’s AAA rating for the first time since granting it in 1917. The move came less than a week after a gridlocked Congress finally agreed to spending cuts that would reduce the debt by more than $2 trillion — a tumultuous process that contributed to convulsions in financial markets. The promised cuts were not enough to satisfy S&P.
The drop in the rating by one notch to AA-plus was telegraphed as a possibility back in April. The three main credit agencies, which also include Moody’s Investor Service and Fitch, had warned during the budget fight that if Congress did not cut spending far enough, the country faced a downgrade. Moody’s said it was keeping its AAA rating on the nation’s debt, but that it might still lower it.
One of the biggest questions after the downgrade was what impact it would have on already nervous investors. While the downgrade was not a surprise, some selling is expected when stock trading resumes Monday morning. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 699 points this week, the biggest weekly point drop since October 2008. …”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-downgrades-US-credit-apf-2107320979.html
Background Articles and Videos
Treasury Bond Prices and Yields
The Gold Standard Before the Civil War | Murray N. Rothbard
The Case for a 100 Percent Gold Dollar (Part 1 of 2) by Murray N. Rothbard
The Case for a 100 Percent Gold Dollar (Part 2 of 2) by Murray N. Rothbard
Open Market Operations
| Federal Funds Target Rate | |||||||||||
| Month/Day | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Jan 1 | 6.50% | 1.75% | 1.25% | 1.00% | 2.25% | 4.25% | 5.25% | 4.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Feb 1 | 5.50% | 1.75% | 1.26% | 1.00% | 2.25% | 4.50% | 5.25% | 3.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Mar 1 | 5.50% | 1.75% | 1.25% | 1.00% | 2.50% | 4.50% | 5.25% | 3.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Apr 1 | 5.00% | 1.75% | 1.25% | 1.00% | 2.75% | 4.75% | 5.25% | 2.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| May 1 | 4.50% | 1.75% | 1.25% | 1.00% | 2.75% | 4.75% | 5.25% | 2.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Jun 1 | 4.00% | 1.75% | 1.25% | 1.00% | 3.00% | 5.00% | 5.25% | 2.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Jul 1 | 3.75% | 1.75% | 1.00% | 1.25% | 3.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% | 2.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Aug 1 | 3.75% | 1.75% | 1.00% | 1.25% | 3.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% | 2.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% |
| Sep 1 | 3.50% | 1.75% | 1.00% | 1.50% | 3.50% | 5.25% | 5.25% | 2.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | |
| Oct 1 | 3.00% | 1.75% | 1.00% | 1.75% | 3.75% | 5.25% | 4.75% | 2.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | |
| Nov 1 | 2.50% | 1.75% | 1.00% | 1.75% | 4.00% | 5.25% | 4.50% | 1.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | |
| Dec 1 | 2.00% | 1.25% | 1.00% | 2.00% | 4.00% | 5.25% | 4.50% | 1.00% | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | |
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/fedfundsrate.htm
United States Treasury security
“…A United States Treasury security is government debt issued by the United States Department of the Treasury through the Bureau of the Public Debt. Treasury securities are the debt financing instruments of the United States Federal government, and they are often referred to simply as Treasuries. There are four types of marketable treasury securities: Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). There are several types of non-marketable treasury securities including State and Local Government Series (SLGS), Government Account Series debt issued to government-managed trust funds, and savings bonds. All of the marketable Treasury securities are very liquid and are heavily traded on the secondary market. The non-marketable securities (such as savings bonds) are issued to subscribers and cannot be transferred through market sales.
History
The U.S. government knew that the costs of World War I would be great, and the question of how to pay for the war was a matter of intense debate. The resulting decision was to pay for the war with a balance between higher taxes (see the War Tax Act) and government debt. Traditionally, the government borrowed from other countries, but there were no other countries from which to borrow in 1917: U.S. citizens would have to fully finance the war through both higher taxes and purchases of war bonds.[1]
The Treasury raised funding throughout the war by selling $21.5 billion in ‘Liberty bonds.’ These bonds were sold at subscription where officials created coupon price and then sold it at Par value. At this price, subscriptions could be filled in as little as one day, but usually remained open for several weeks, depending on demand for the bond.[1]
After the war, the Liberty Bonds were reaching maturity, but the Treasury was unable to pay each down fully with only limited budget surpluses. The resolution to this problem was to refinance the debt with variable short and medium-term maturities. Again the Treasury issued debt through fixed-price subscription, where both the coupon and the price of the debt were dictated by the treasury.[1]
The problems with debt issuance became apparent in the late-1920′s. The system suffered from chronic oversubscription, where interest rates were so attractive that there were more purchasers of debt than supplied by the government. This indicated that the government was paying too much for debt. As government debt was undervalued, debt purchasers could buy from the government and immediately sell to another market participant at a higher price.[1]
In 1929, the U.S. Treasury shifted from the fixed-price subscription system to a system of auctioning where ‘Treasury Bills’ would be sold to the highest bidder. Securities were then issued on a pro rata system where securities would be allocated to the highest bidder until their demand was full. If more treasuries were supplied by the government, they would then be allocated to the next highest bidder. This system allowed the market to set the price rather than the government. On December 10, 1929, the Treasury issued its first auction. The result was the issuing of $224 million three-month bills. The highest bid was at 99.310 with the lowest bid accepted at 99.152.[1]
Foreign countries later started to buy U.S. debt as an investment of their surplus U.S. Dollars. There is fear that foreign countries hold so many bonds that if they stopped buying them, the U.S. economy would collapse; however, the reality is that more bonds are transferred in a single day by the Treasury than are held by any single sovereign state.[2] The perception of this dependence furthers belief that the U.S. and China economies are so tightly linked that both fear the consequences of a potential slow down in China’s purchase of those bonds. In her 2010 visit to China, the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on authorities in Beijing to continue buying U.S. Treasuries, saying it would help jumpstart the flagging U.S. economy and stimulate imports of Chinese goods.[3]
As the economic recession continues, more doubts arise over the real value of U.S. treasury securities. Though carefully worded, Chinese premier Wen Jia Bao’s warning about possible devaluation of Chinese held U.S. bonds was taken very seriously by Washington:
“Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I’m a little bit worried” … “I would like to call on the United States to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”[4] – Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, said at a news conference after the closing of China’s 2009 legislative session.
However, it is important to note that such comments, while critical, were very likely indicative of Chinese “gesturing” ahead of the April 1st G-20 Economic Summit. As of April 2009, the U.S. dollar had rallied YTD against all other major world currencies. On March 18, 2009, the Federal Reserve used quantitative easing “to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.”[5]
Marketable securities
Directly issued by the United States Government
Treasury bill
- “Treasury bill” redirects here. Note that the Bank of England issues these in the United Kingdom.
Treasury bills (or T-Bills) mature in one year or less. Like zero-coupon bonds, they do not pay interest prior to maturity; instead they are sold at a discount of the par value to create a positive yield to maturity.[6] Many regard Treasury bills as the least risky investment available to U.S. investors.
Regular weekly T-Bills are commonly issued with maturity dates of 28 days (or 4 weeks, about a month), 91 days (or 13 weeks, about 3 months), 182 days (or 26 weeks, about 6 months), and 364 days (or 52 weeks, about 1 year). Treasury bills are sold by single-price auctions held weekly. Offering amounts for 13-week and 26-week bills are announced each Thursday for auction, usually at 11:30 a.m., on the following Monday and settlement, or issuance, on Thursday. Offering amounts for 4-week bills are announced on Monday for auction the next day, Tuesday, usually at 11:30 a.m., and issuance on Thursday. Offering amounts for 52-week bills are announced every fourth Thursday for auction the next Tuesday, usually at 11:30 am, and issuance on Thursday. Purchase orders at TreasuryDirect must be entered before 11:00 on the Monday of the auction. The minimum purchase, effective April 7, 2008, is $100. (This amount formerly had been $1,000.) Mature T-bills are also redeemed on each Thursday. Banks and financial institutions, especially primary dealers, are the largest purchasers of T-bills.
Like other securities, individual issues of T-bills are identified with a unique CUSIP number. The 13-week bill issued three months after a 26-week bill is considered a re-opening of the 26-week bill and is given the same CUSIP number. The 4-week bill issued two months after that and maturing on the same day is also considered a re-opening of the 26-week bill and shares the same CUSIP number. For example, the 26-week bill issued on March 22, 2007, and maturing on September 20, 2007, has the same CUSIP number (912795A27) as the 13-week bill issued on June 21, 2007, and maturing on September 20, 2007, and as the 4-week bill issued on August 23, 2007 that matures on September 20, 2007.
During periods when Treasury cash balances are particularly low, the Treasury may sell cash management bills (or CMBs). These are sold at a discount and by auction just like weekly Treasury bills. They differ in that they are irregular in amount, term (often less than 21 days), and day of the week for auction, issuance, and maturity. When CMBs mature on the same day as a regular weekly bill, usually Thursday, they are said to be on-cycle. The CMB is considered another reopening of the bill and has the same CUSIP. When CMBs mature on any other day, they are off-cycle and have a different CUSIP number.
Treasury bills are quoted for purchase and sale in the secondary market on an annualized discount percentage, or basis.
With the advent of TreasuryDirect, individuals can now purchase T-Bills online and have funds withdrawn from and deposited directly to their personal bank account and earn higher interest rates on their savings.
General calculation for the discount yield for Treasury bills is
![\text{Discount Yield} (%) = \frac{\text{Face Value} - \text{Purchase Price}}{\text{Face Value}} \times \frac{\text{360}}{\text{Days Till Maturity}} \times 100[%]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/0/5/c/05c5e110d56de2353cac261003bc7729.png)
Treasury note
- This is the modern usage of “Treasury Note” in the U.S., for the earlier meanings see Treasury Note (disambiguation).
Treasury notes (or T-Notes) mature in one to ten years. They have a coupon payment every six months, and are commonly issued with maturities dates between 1 to 10 years, with denominations of $1,000. In the basic transaction, one buys a “$1,000″ T-Note for say, $950, collects interest over 10 years of say, 3% per year, which comes to $30 yearly, and at the end of the 10 years cashes it in for $1000. So, $950 over the course of 10 years becomes $1300.
T-Notes and T-Bonds are quoted on the secondary market at percentage of par in thirty-seconds of a point (n/32 of a point, where n = 1,2,3,…). Thus, for example, a quote of 95:07 on a note indicates that it is trading at a discount: $952.19 (i.e., 95 + 7/32%) for a $1,000 bond. (Several different notations may be used for bond price quotes. The example of 95 and 7/32 points may be written as 95:07, or 95-07, or 95’07, or decimalized as 95.21875.) Other notation includes a +, which indicates 1/64 points and a third digit may be specified to represent 1/256 points. Examples include 95:07+ which equates to (95 + 7/32 + 1/64) and 95:073 which equates to (95 + 7/32 + 3/256). Notation such as 95:073+ is unusual and not typically used.
The 10-year Treasury note has become the security most frequently quoted when discussing the performance of the U.S. government bond market and is used to convey the market’s take on longer-term macroeconomic expectations.
Treasury bond
Treasury bonds (T-Bonds, or the long bond) have the longest maturity, from twenty years to thirty years. They have a coupon payment every six months like T-Notes, and are commonly issued with maturity of thirty years. The secondary market is highly liquid, so the yield on the most recent T-Bond offering was commonly used as a proxy for long-term interest rates in general.[citation needed] This role has largely been taken over by the 10-year note, as the size and frequency of long-term bond issues declined significantly in the 1990s and early 2000s.[citation needed]
The U.S. Federal government suspended issuing the well-known 30-year Treasury bonds (often called long-bonds) for a four and a half year period starting October 31, 2001 and concluding February 2006.[7] As the U.S. government used its budget surpluses to pay down the Federal debt in the late 1990s,[8] the 10-year Treasury note began to replace the 30-year Treasury bond as the general, most-followed metric of the U.S. bond market. However, because of demand from pension funds and large, long-term institutional investors, along with a need to diversify the Treasury’s liabilities – and also because the flatter yield curve meant that the opportunity cost of selling long-dated debt had dropped – the 30-year Treasury bond was re-introduced in February 2006 and is now issued quarterly.[9] This brought the U.S. in line with Japan and European governments issuing longer-dated maturities amid growing global demand from pension funds.[citation needed]
TIPS
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (or TIPS) are the inflation-indexed bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. The principal is adjusted to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the commonly used measure of inflation. When the CPI rises, your principal adjusts upward. If the index falls, your principal adjusts downwards.[10] The coupon rate is constant, but generates a different amount of interest when multiplied by the inflation-adjusted principal, thus protecting the holder against inflation. TIPS are currently offered in 5-year, 10-year and 30-year maturities.[11]
Federal Reserve holdings of U.S. Treasuries
For the Quantitative easing policy the Feds holding of US treasuries increased from $750 billion in 2007 to over $1.5 trillion by June 2011. Source Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [12] …”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security
Understanding the Financial Crisis – very well explanation!
Deconstructing the Subprime Crisis
Jeremy Siegel on the Resilience of American Finance
Franklin Allen on Lessons from the Subprime Crisis
Understanding The Debt Crisis In The U.S.
CNN: Understanding the Crisis
Understanding the Financial Crisis
Stein Says Economy to Accelerate; U.S. Downgrade Likely
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Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
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United States Interest Rate
“…The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last reported at 0.25 percent. In the United States, authority for interest rate decisions is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate. From 1971 until 2010 the United States’ average interest rate was 6.45 percent reaching an historical high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008. This page includes: United States Interest Rate chart, historical data and news. …”
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
United States GDP Growth Rate
“…The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011 over the previous quarter. From 1947 until 2010 The United States’ average quarterly GDP Growth was 3.30 percent reaching an historical high of 17.20 percent in March of 1950 and a record low of -10.40 percent in March of 1958. The economy of the United States is the largest in the world. The United States is a market-oriented economy where private individuals and business firms make most of the decisions. The federal and state governments buy needed goods and services predominantly in the private marketplace. This page includes: United States GDP Growth Rate chart, historical data and news. …”
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
United States Inflation Rate
“…The inflation rate in United States was last reported at 2.7 percent in March of 2011. From 1914 until 2010, the average inflation rate in United States was 3.38 percent reaching an historical high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921. Inflation rate refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power. The most well known measures of Inflation are the CPI which measures consumer prices, and the GDP deflator, which measures inflation in the whole of the domestic economy. This page includes: United States Inflation Rate chart, historical data and news. …”
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
United States Unemployment Rate
“…The unemployment rate in the United States was last reported at 8.8 percent in March of 2011. From 1948 until 2010 the United States’ Unemployment Rate averaged 5.70 percent reaching an historical high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953. The labour force is defined as the number of people employed plus the number unemployed but seeking work. The nonlabour force includes those who are not looking for work, those who are institutionalised and those serving in the military. This page includes: United States Unemployment Rate chart, historical data and news. …”
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
Quantitative Easing Explained
Grant Expects Another Round of Fed Quantitative Easing
Ben Bernanke’s Own Words on Fed Policy, QE2, U.S. Economy
Bernanke Spotlights Political, Economic Challenges in Historic News Conference
Bernanke Meets The Press In Historic News Conference
Ron Paul Responds to Fed Press Conference 04/27/11
Kudlow Report, April 27, 2011
Gerald Celente on RT: Discusses Ben Bernanke’s statements on US Economy
Ron Paul & The Federal Reserve – End the Fed (27-Apri-11)(POLITICS IN ACTION series)
Ron Paul on Bloomberg 4/27/11
FIRST EVER: Federal Reserve Press Conference Since US Coup d’etat of 1913
Swonk Says Gold Prices `Huge Indicator’ of Uncertainty
Hastings Says Gasoline Price Rise Won’t Halt U.S. Growth
Strasser Says U.S. Consumer to Feel Higher Food Prices
Fed Lowers 2011 GDP Growth Estimate, Raises Core Inflation Expectation
Gold and Silver Prices Signal the Destruction of the Dollar
Peter Schiff Is The Age Of America Nearing It s End
Marc Faber on Inflation – “The Ben Bernanke is a Murderer of the Working & Middle Class!”
Ed Butowsky | Stagflation Frustration
END FED: Walmart Warns Of Serious Inflation (Food-Clothing) Ahead; Fed-Bankers Caused Stagflation
*Hyperinflation Report* Proof Food Packaging is Getting Smaller Tuna, Chips
END FED: Oil Prices Rise Due To 1)Oil Comanies Can’t Drill 2)Fed Money Printing 3)Wars & Instability
Fed Takes Foot Off the Gas
By JON HILSENRATH And LUCA DI LEO
“…The Federal Reserve used its first-ever news conference to signal it will phase out a controversial bond-buying program—and to reassure a skeptical public that the central bank is doing everything it can to control inflation and expand an uneven recovery that has yet to reach many Americans.
WSJ’s Kelly Evans leads a discussion breaking down Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s first-ever press conference.
“It is very hard to blame the American public for being impatient,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a former economics professor, told about 60 reporters at Wednesday’s one-hour news conference, which was transmitted on the Internet and televised. “Conditions are far from where we would like them to be. The combination of high unemployment, high gas prices and high foreclosure rates is a terrible combination and a lot of people are having a very tough time.”
Mr. Bernanke said the central bank would complete its $600 billion bond-buying program in June, as planned, and maintain ultra-low interest-rates for the now.
Amid 8.8% unemployment, a moribund housing market, and rising gas and food prices, the Fed chairman took his message directly to the public.
He aimed in part to better explain the thinking within a central bank whose reputation has been bruised by the recession and its aftermath. That reputation is especially important right now, because Mr. Bernanke needs to convince the public that he won’t let inflation take off after pushing interest rates to near zero or employ unconventional measures, such as the bond-buying program, to boost growth.
By ending the bond purchases, the Fed has effectively decided that it won’t do more to boost growth, even though the economy appeared to stumble during the first quarter. Fed officials now will turn their attention to when the central bank might start raising interest rates. Mr. Bernanke made clear he isn’t inclined to do that for a long time, unless the inflation outlook worsens. …”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704099704576289030398644312.html
Economic Growth Slow as Inflation Measure Spikes Up
“…Growth in U.S. gross domestic product—a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders—braked to a 1.8 percent annual rate after a 3.1 percent fourth quarter pace, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists had expected a 2 percent growth pace.
“We hit a bit of a soft patch in the first quarter, but that should prove temporary because weather was a drag and we got blindsided a bit by a jump in gasoline prices late in the quarter,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics before the report was released.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday acknowledged the slowdown in first-quarter growth, describing the recovery as proceeding at a “moderate pace”—a slight step back from a statement in March when it said the economy was on a “firmer footing.”
It trimmed its growth estimate for 2011 to between 3.1 and 3.3 percent from a 3.4 to 3.9 percent January projection. …”
“…Rising commodity prices meant the households that drive about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity had less money to spend on other items. The report also underscored the pain that strong food and gasoline prices are inflicting on households.
A broader measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 3.8 percent rate—its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2008—after increasing 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
The core index, which excludes food and energy costs, accelerated to a 1.5 percent rate—the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2009 — from 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The core gauge is closely watched by Fed officials, who would like it around 2 percent. …”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42796520
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Senator Tom Coburn and Representative Ron Paul On The Bureaucratic Beast’s Bloated Budgets, Bankruptcy and Beltway Bandits–Videos
Senator Tom Coburn on The US Budget, Austerity, Hyperinflation, and America’s Future
Dr. Coburn & Dylan Ratigan discuss the new GAO report exposing duplication & waste
Washington Journal (pt. 1)
Washington Journal (pt. 2)
Washington Journal (pt. 3)
Dr. Coburn explains the serious long-term implications we face if we don’t cut spending pt.1
Ron Paul: The Country Is Bankrupt and Congress Won’t Admit It
Ron Paul on the Need to Cut Spending
CNN: Ron Paul: Spending ‘out of control’
Ron Paul: Fall of the Federal Empire
Ron Paul: What If the Fed Couldn’t Buy Government Debt?
Ron Paul: The Best Income Tax Rate is 0%
Ron Paul on Taxes
Should either Senator Tom Coburn or Representative Ron Paul decide to run for President in 2012 they would receive my support and vote for they are among a small group of Senators and Representatives who understand the problem and know what needs to be done.
It is interesting that both are medical doctors.
My suggestion to them is as follows:
First, start cutting discretionary spending not program by program but department by department before you even consider cutting mandatory entitlement spending such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Milton Friedman on Libertarianism (Part 4 of 4)
Time to permanently shut down and abolish eleven Federal Departments including:
1. Department of Agriculture
2. Department of Commerce
3. Deparment of Education
4. Department of Energy
5. Department of Health and Human Resources
6. Department of Homeland Security
7. Department of Housing and Urban Development
8. Department of Labor
9. Department of Interior
10. Department of Transportation
11. Department of Veteran Affairs.
Second replace all Federal taxes with the FairTax:
The FairTax: It’s Time
Third, balance the budget and pass a balance budget rule and Constitutional Amendment that limits annual Federal Government spending to 80% of prior FairTax revenue collections with the remaining 20% used to pay down the national debt.
Fourth, reform Social Security and Medicare so the individual owns and controls his or her Social Security account and health insurance plan not the Federal Government.
Time is running out.
The rate of interest on Federal Treasury securities will in the next three years rise back to its historical average of about 6% as a direct result of rising inflation.
Once this happens the interest on the national debt will limit Federal Government spending.
Either Senator Coburn or Representative Paul must soon decide whether they will run for President.
I encourage both to seriously consider running.
Background Articles and Videos
Deficits, Debts and Unfunded Liabilities: The Consequences of Excessive Government Spending
Quantitative Easing Explained
Peter Schiff – How the Government can Avoid Default 1-3-2011
Peter Schiff Video Blog – March 4, 2011
Peter Schiff and Marc Faber on CNBC 8/23/10: Time to Flee U.S. Treasuries!
Peter Schiff Video Blog – March 15, 2011
PIMCO Dumps US Treasuries
Pimco’s Bill Gross on Bloomberg Television
Billions in Bloat Uncovered in Beltway
“…A report from the nonpartisan GAO, to be released Tuesday, compiles a list of redundant and potentially ineffective federal programs, and it could serve as a template for lawmakers in both parties as they move to cut federal spending and consolidate programs to reduce the deficit. Sen. Tom Coburn (R., Okla.), who pushed for the report, estimated it identifies between $100 billion and $200 billion in duplicative spending. The GAO didn’t put a specific figure on the spending overlap. …”
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Obama’s Trick On The American People: Health Insurance Reform=Huge Hikes in Taxes and Premiums for Health Insurance and Massive Medicare Funding and Payment Reimbursement Cuts–Congressional Coercion–It’s Alive!
Republican Health Care Reform: The Patients’ Choice Act
Medical Doctor and Senator Tom Coburn On Health Care–Videos
The Senate Doctors Show–Videos
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Brit Hume’s Commentary: Debt Ceiling Misconceptions
White House Open to Talks on Debt?
Peter Schiff – EuroPac Conference Part 8 of 11
Peter Schiff – How the Government can Avoid Default 1-3-2011
Peter is exactly right.
Cut Federal spending and balance the budget to avoid default.
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National Debt Will Hit $20,000,000,000,000 By 2020 If Debt Ceiling Is Increased!
Debt Ceiling Battle–Tea Party Balanced Budget Constitutional Conservatives vs. Republican Party Unbalanced Budgets Establishment–The Party’s Over–The Piper Must Be Paid–Videos
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TOP THREE 2011 PREDICTIONS [DEC 2010]
Fast Money’s Tim Seymour Body Slams Peter Schiff While The Chinese Throw Pie On Schiff’s Face
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The Last Refuge of A Conformist: Socialism–Videos
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Background Articles and Videos
Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One | Peter Schiff
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Peter Schiff Was Right And Still Is!–Yes We Can–No You Didn’t–Videos
[PETER SCHIFF] = 2011 – 2012 PREDICTIONS [NOV 4, 2010]
Peter Schiff Was Right 02-09
Peter Schiff predictions
Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics
Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One | Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff – Obama is in bed with Wall Street just like Bush (1 of 2)
Peter Schiff – Obama is in bed with Wall Street just like Bush (2 of 2)
12/16/2008 Part 1/4 Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Co: Target Rate To Record Low
Dollar Collapse – Peter Schiff Versus Steve Forbes
12/16/2008 Part 2/4 Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Co: Target Rate To Record Low
12/16/2008 Part 3/4 Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Co: Target Rate To Record Low
12/16/2008 Part 4/4 Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Co: Target Rate To Record Low
Peter Schiff Explains Origins of Money
Peter Schiff Radio – Tom Woods Interview (4-Nov-10)(1-2)(FINANCE & ECONOMICS series
Peter Schiff Radio – Tom Woods Interview (4-Nov-10)(2-2)(FINANCE & ECONOMICS series)
Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 – 2007 (2nd Edition)
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Economists
The Battle For The World Economy–Videos
Frederic Bastiat–The Law–Videos
Walter Block–Videos
Walter Block–Introduction To Libertarianism–Videos
Hunter Lewis–Where Keynes Went Wrong–Videos
Thomas DiLorenzo–The Economic Model of the Fascist State–Videos
Richard Ebeling–America’s New Road to Serfdom and the Continuing Relevance of Austrian Economics –Videos
Milton Friedman–Videos
Milton Friedman–Capitalism and Freedom–Videos
Milton Friedman On Business–Videos
Milton Friedman On Education–Videos
Milton Friedman On Monetary Policy–Videos
Milton Friedman–Debate In Iceland–Videos
Milton Friedman–Free To Choose–On Donahue –Videos
Milton Friedman–Economic Myths–Videos
Paul Edward Gottfried–Fascism, Anti-Fascism, and the Welfare State–Videos
David Gordon–Five Best Books on the Current Crisis–Video
David Gordon–The Confused Literature of Globalization–Videos
Friedrich Hayek–Videos
Friedrich A. Hayek–Interviews–Videos
Inside the Hayek Equation: An Interview with Friedrich von Hayek–Video
An Interview with Friedrich Hayek–Videos
Henry Hazlitt–Economics In One Lesson–Videos
Robert Higgs–The Complex Path of Ideological Change–Videos
Robert Higgs–The Great Depression and the Current Recession–Videos
Robert Higgs–Why Are Politicians Always Trying to Scare Us?–Videos
Jörg Guido Hülsmann–The Ethics of Money Production–Videos
Jörg Guido Hülsmann–The Life and Work of Ludwig von Mises–Videos
Israel Kirzner–On Entrepreneurship–Vidoes
Paul Krugman–Videos
Hunter Lewis–Where Keynes Went Wrong–Videos
Liberal Fascism–Jonah Goldberg–Videos
Dan Mitchell–Videos
Ludwig von Mises–Videos
Robert P. Murphy–Videos
Robert P. Murphy–Government Stimulus: Repeating the mistakes of the Great Depression–Videos
Gary North–Keynes and His Influence–Take The North Challenge–Videos
The Fountainhead, Atlas Shrugged and The Ideas of Ayn Rand
George Gerald Reisman–Why Nazism Was Socialism and Why Socialism Is Totalitarian–Videos
Paul Craig Roberts–How The Economy Was Lost–The War Of The Worlds–Videos
Paul Craig Roberts–Peak Jobs–Videos
Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr–How Empires Bamboozle the Bourgeoisie–Videos
Murray Rothbard–Videos
Murray Rothbard–A History of Money and Banking in The United States–Videos
Murray Rothbard–The American Economy and the End of Laissez-Faire: 1870 to World War II–Videos
Murray Rothbard–The Case Against The Fed–Videos
Murray N. Rothbard–Introduction to Economics: A Private Seminar–Videos
Murray Rothbard–Libertarianism–Video
Rothbard On Keynes–Videos
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George Soros: Barack Obama’s Money Man and Agenda Puppeter
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )
George Soros On The New World Order And The Orderly Decline of The Dollar–China The Engine and U.S. A Drag–Peter Schiff Responds–Videos
“The power which a multiple millionaire, who may be my neighbour and perhaps my employer, has over me is very much less that which the smallest functionaire possess who wield the coercive power of the state, and on whose discretion it depends whether and how I am able to be allowed to live or work. “
“Fascism and Communism are merely variants of the same totalitarianism which central control of economic activity tends to produce.”
~Friedrich A. Hayek
George Soros, Obama, New World Order, and the Dollar
Financial Elites : George Soros
George Soros Talking about jim Rogers and Warren Buffett 11 june In China
Jim Rogers Calls Fed’s Ben Bernanke `A Disaster’
China under pressure to let yuan appreciate
Peter Schiff on the Yuan
Peter Schiff does standup comedy!
Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One | Peter Schiff
The Dollar is now collapsing – Peter Schiff | Part 1
The Dollar is now collapsing – Peter Schiff | Part 2
What Soros will not admit is govenment intervention into the economy and markets enables bubbles in the first place.
This requires even more government intervention to correct past mistakes.
The Federal Reserve fueled the housing boom or bubble with an easy money monetary policy.
Now the Federal Reserve is fueling the U.S. Government bubble or massive Federal government deficits by printing money to buy U.S. Treasuries–quantitative easying or QE2.
What really needs to be done is for the United States Federal Government to drastically cut spending and balance its budgets.
China needs to either let its currency the yuan appreciate in value and freely float against other currencies on the foreign exchange markets.
Free markets not government intervention is the answer.
Capitalism not socialism.
“There is simply no other choice than this: either to abstain from interference in the free play of the market, or to delegate the entire management of production and distribution to the government. Either capitalism or socialism: there exists no middle way.”
“Depression is the aftermath of credit expansion.”
Ludwig von Mises
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“The surest way to destroy a nation is to debauch its currency.”
~Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
“Inflation is running at rates that are too low.”
~Ben Bernanke, Chairman of The Federal Reserve System
“The gold standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift governments.”
“The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard.”
~Ludwig von Mises
Pulp Fiction – You’re The Weak – Extended Version
Jules: Well there’s this passage I got memorized. Ezekiel 25:17. “The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness. For he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know I am the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon you.” I been sayin’ that shit for years. And if you ever heard it, it meant your ass. I never gave much thought what it meant. I just thought it was some cold-blooded shit to say to a motherfucker before I popped a cap in his ass. I saw some shit this mornin’ made me think twice. See now I’m thinkin’, maybe it means you’re the evil man. And I’m the righteous man. And Mr. 9 Milimeter here, he’s the shepherd protecting my righteous ass in the valley of darkness. Or it could mean you’re the righteous man and I’m the shepherd and it’s the world that’s evil and selfish. Now I’d like that. But that shit ain’t the truth. The truth is you’re the weak. And I’m the tyranny of evil men. But I’m tryin’, Ringo. I’m tryin’ real hard to be a shepherd.
Pulp Fiction written by Quentin Tarantino & Roger Avary
http://www.whysanity.net/monos/jules.html
Peter Schiff It’s Scary How Clueless Bernanke Is
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Fall Of The Republic 1/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
Fall Of The Republic 2/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
Fall Of The Republic 3/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
Fall Of The Republic 4/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
Fall Of The Republic 5/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
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Fall Of The Republic 10/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
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Fall Of The Republic 12/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
Fall Of The Republic 13/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
Fall Of The Republic 14/14: The Presidency Of Barack H Obama
Bailout
“Capitalism means free enterprise, sovereignty of the consumers in economic matters, and sovereignty of the voters in political matters. Socialism means full government control of every sphere of the individuals life and the unrestricted supremacy of the government in its capacity as central board of production management.”
“A man who chooses between drinking a glass of milk and a glass of a solution of potassium cyanide does not choose between two beverages; he chooses between life and death. A society that chooses between capitalism and socialism does not choose between two social systems; it chooses between social cooperation and the disintegration of society. Socialism is not an alternative to capitalism; it is an alternative to any system under which men can live as human beings.”
“There is simply no other choice than this: either to abstain from interference in the free play of the market, or to delegate the entire management of production and distribution to the government. Either capitalism or socialism: there exists no middle way.”
~Ludwig von Mises
Pulp Fiction – Just be Jules
Background Articles and Videos
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Inflation and Debt: The Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Part 1)
Inflation and Debt: The Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Part 2)
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Inflation and Debt: The Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Part 4)
Inflation and Debt: The Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Part 5)
Inflation and Debt: The Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Part 6)
Inflation and Debt: The Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Part 7)
Richard W. Fisher Speech: Historical Perspectives on the Current Financial Crisis (Part 1)
(Part 2) Richard W. Fisher Speech: Historical Perspectives on the Current Financial Crisis
(Part 3) Richard W. Fisher Speech: Historical Perspectives on the Current Financial Crisis
Peter Schiff
“…Peter David Schiff (pronounced /ˈʃɪf/; born March 23, 1963) is an American businessman, author, financial commentator, and a former 2010 Republican primary candidate for the United States Senate.[12]
Schiff is president and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut.[1] Schiff frequently appears as a guest on CNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg Television and is often quoted in major financial publications[13] and is a frequent guest on internet radio[14][15][16] as well as the former host of the podcast Wall Street Unspun[17] and the current host of the The Peter Schiff Show.
He is known for his bearish views on the dollar and dollar denominated assets, while bullish on investment in tangible assets, as well as foreign stocks and currencies.
Financial career
Schiff began his career as a financial consultant at a Shearson Lehman Brothers brokerage.[1] In 1996 Schiff and a partner acquired a small brokerage firm that had been founded in 1980, reincorporated it in California and renamed it Euro Pacific Capital.[18] The company today has more than 15,000 clients[citation needed] and six offices nationwide, with its headquarters in Westport, Connecticut.[19][19] [20]
According to a 2005 article in The Advocate of Stamford, Connecticut Schiff relocated the firm to Darien, Connecticut to find brokers “who think like him”. The New York Metropolitan Area, Schiff says, has the biggest concentration of brokers in the country, making it easier to recruit employees.[21] The company has offices in Newport Beach, California as well as in Scottsdale, Arizona, Palm Beach, Florida, Los Angeles and New York. Euro Pacific Capital also holds the exclusive rights to broker some Perth Mint gold products in the United States.[22]
Economic forecasting
Schiff attributes his economic forecasts to an understanding of the Austrian School,[23] a school of economic thought generally categorized as heterodox (or non-mainstream).[23][24][25] Schiff voices strong support for the Austrian School, and says it was first introduced to him by his father, Irwin Schiff.[26] Schiff admits his economic views are not mainstream, and like the Austrian School, he makes judgments without a strict adherence to economic statistics.[citation needed]
U.S. bear market
In his 2007 book, Crash Proof, Schiff writes that the current United States economic policies are fundamentally unsound, and predicts that in the future the United States dollar will lose much of its value.[3]
Schiff feels that the imbalance between the amount of goods the U.S. consumes and what it produces will eventually lead to problems for the U.S. economy.[27][28] As a remedy Schiff favors increased personal savings and production which he says will stimulate economic growth.[29] Schiff cites the U.S.’s low personal savings rate as one of the causes of the its transformation from the world’s largest creditor nation in the 1970s to the largest debtor nation in the year 2000.[30] Schiff attributes the low savings rate to higher inflation and the artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.[31]
In a 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the stock market bubble would lead to a bear market likely to last “another 5 to 10 years.”[32][33] In November 2002, US stocks began a bull market uptrend which held steady for at least five years,[34] until reversing course in 2008, when the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values,[35] followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year.[36] After interviewing Schiff in 2009, journalist and finance author Eric Tyson, referenced various Schiff predictions during the 2000s and stated that “On all of these counts, Schiff wasn’t just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.”[37] Schiff later released a video stating that, “When I gave that interview in 2002, I had no way of knowing how irresponsible the Fed was going to be … But I recognized that early: back in 2003 and 2004 I changed my forecast … if you look at what happened to the Dow in terms of gold [and not U.S. dollars], my forecast was extremely accurate.”[32]
In an August 2006 interview he said: “The United States economy is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship… I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States.”[38] On December 31, 2006 in debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that “what’s going to happen in 2007″ is that “real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to Earth”.[38]
As part of these exchanges on Fox News and his repeated appearances on financial news network CNBC, Schiff had mentioned factors such as speculators and “the absence of lending standards” which are now seen by many[39][40] to indeed be contributing factors to the housing crisis of 2007-2009. On December 13, 2007 in a Bloomberg interview on the show Open Exchange, Schiff further added that he felt that the crisis would extend to the credit card lending industry.[41] Following this observation, it was soon reported on December 23, 2007 by the Associated Press that “The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP… At the same time, defaults — when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt — rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission.”[42]
Since 2007, Schiff has stated many times that if the government doesn’t change course there will be hyperinflation in the US.[3] Schiff is one of a minority of economists credited with accurately predicting the financial crisis of 2007–2010 while “nearly all [macroeconomists] failed to foresee the recession despite plenty of warning signs”.[43][44] In his book Crash Proof, he described several aspects of the U.S. economy that would lead to a recession.[3] …”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 2002 Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here
“…Deflation: Its Causes and Effects
Deflation is defined as a general decline in prices, with emphasis on the word “general.” At any given time, especially in a low-inflation economy like that of our recent experience, prices of some goods and services will be falling. Price declines in a specific sector may occur because productivity is rising and costs are falling more quickly in that sector than elsewhere or because the demand for the output of that sector is weak relative to the demand for other goods and services. Sector-specific price declines, uncomfortable as they may be for producers in that sector, are generally not a problem for the economy as a whole and do not constitute deflation. Deflation per se occurs only when price declines are so widespread that broad-based indexes of prices, such as the consumer price index, register ongoing declines.
The sources of deflation are not a mystery. Deflation is in almost all cases a side effect of a collapse of aggregate demand–a drop in spending so severe that producers must cut prices on an ongoing basis in order to find buyers.1 Likewise, the economic effects of a deflationary episode, for the most part, are similar to those of any other sharp decline in aggregate spending–namely, recession, rising unemployment, and financial stress.
However, a deflationary recession may differ in one respect from “normal” recessions in which the inflation rate is at least modestly positive: Deflation of sufficient magnitude may result in the nominal interest rate declining to zero or very close to zero.2 Once the nominal interest rate is at zero, no further downward adjustment in the rate can occur, since lenders generally will not accept a negative nominal interest rate when it is possible instead to hold cash. At this point, the nominal interest rate is said to have hit the “zero bound.”
Deflation great enough to bring the nominal interest rate close to zero poses special problems for the economy and for policy. First, when the nominal interest rate has been reduced to zero, the real interest rate paid by borrowers equals the expected rate of deflation, however large that may be.3 To take what might seem like an extreme example (though in fact it occurred in the United States in the early 1930s), suppose that deflation is proceeding at a clip of 10 percent per year. Then someone who borrows for a year at a nominal interest rate of zero actually faces a 10 percent real cost of funds, as the loan must be repaid in dollars whose purchasing power is 10 percent greater than that of the dollars borrowed originally. In a period of sufficiently severe deflation, the real cost of borrowing becomes prohibitive. Capital investment, purchases of new homes, and other types of spending decline accordingly, worsening the economic downturn. …”
“….Conclusion
Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should be strongly resisted. Fortunately, for the foreseeable future, the chances of a serious deflation in the United States appear remote indeed, in large part because of our economy’s underlying strengths but also because of the determination of the Federal Reserve and other U.S. policymakers to act preemptively against deflationary pressures. Moreover, as I have discussed today, a variety of policy responses are available should deflation appear to be taking hold. Because some of these alternative policy tools are relatively less familiar, they may raise practical problems of implementation and of calibration of their likely economic effects. For this reason, as I have emphasized, prevention of deflation is preferable to cure. Nevertheless, I hope to have persuaded you that the Federal Reserve and other economic policymakers would be far from helpless in the face of deflation, even should the federal funds rate hit its zero bound.19
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
Alex Jones
“…Alexander Emerick Jones (born February 11, 1974) is an American talk radio host, actor and filmmaker. His syndicated news/talk show The Alex Jones Show, based in Austin, Texas, airs via the Genesis Communication Network over sixty AM, FM, and shortwave radio stations across the United States and on the Internet.[1] His websites include Infowars.com and PrisonPlanet.com.[2]
Mainstream news sources have referred to him as right-wing,[3][4][5] conservative,[6][7][8][9] and a conspiracy theorist.[10][11][12]
Jones sees himself as a libertarian, and rejects being described as a right-winger.[13] He has also called himself a paleoconservative.[14] In a promotional biography he is described as an “aggressive constitutionalist”.[15][16]
Jones was born on February 11, 1974 in Dallas, Texas,[17] and grew up in the suburb of Rockwall. His father is a dentist.[18] He graduated from Anderson High School in northwest Austin, Texas in 1993. After high school he briefly attended Austin Community College.
He began his career in Austin with a live, call-in format cable access television program. In 1996, Jones switched format to KJFK, hosting a show named The Final Edition.[19] In 1998, he released his first film, America Destroyed By Design
In 1998, Jones spearheaded an effort to build a memorial for the members who died at the David Koresh-led Branch Davidian compound/church near Waco, Texas, including the ATF officers who died.[citation needed] He often featured the project on his cable access program and claimed that Koresh and his followers were peaceful people who were murdered by Attorney General Janet Reno and the ATF in the infamous Waco Siege.[19]
In 1999, he tied with Shannon Burke for that year’s “Best Austin Talk Radio Host” poll as voted by The Austin Chronicle readers.[20] Later that year, he was fired from KJFK-FM. According to the station’s operations manager, Jones was fired because his viewpoints made the show hard to sell to advertisers and he refused to broaden his topics.[19] Jones argued: “It was purely political, and it came down from on high,” and, “I was told 11 weeks ago to lay off Clinton, to lay off all these politicians, to not talk about rebuilding the church, to stop bashing the Marines, A to Z.”[19]
In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open seat swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running, “to be a watchdog on the inside.”[21] He aborted his campaign and withdrew before the March primary when polls indicated he had little chance of winning.
In July 2000, a group of Austin Community Access Center (ACAC) programmers claimed that Jones used legal proceedings and ACAC policy to intimidate them or get their shows thrown off the air. The programmers made their views known via radio broadcast and websites.[22] Also in 2000, Jones and assistant Mike Hanson infiltrated Bohemian Grove and filmed the opening weekend ceremony, known as the Cremation of Care, claiming it to be mock child sacrifice in front of a 40-foot-tall (12 m) stone owl of Moloch.
On June 8, 2006, while on his way to cover a meeting of the Bilderberg group in Ottawa, Canada, Jones was stopped and detained at the Ottawa airport by Canadian authorities who confiscated his passport, camera equipment, and most of his belongings. He was later allowed to enter Canada lawfully. Jones said regarding the reason for his immigration hold, “I want to say, on the record, it takes two to tango. I could have handled it better.”[23]
On September 8, 2007, he was arrested while protesting at 6th Avenue and 48th Street in New York City. He was charged with operating a bullhorn without a permit. Two others were also cited for disorderly conduct when his group crashed a live television show featuring Geraldo Rivera. In an article, one of Jones’s fellow protesters said “It was … guerilla information warfare.”[24]
Media
The Alex Jones Show
The Alex Jones Show syndicated radio program is broadcast nationally by Genesis Communications Network to more than 60 AM and FM radio stations in the United States, and to WWCR Radio shortwave. Live-broadcast times are weekdays 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. CST and Sundays from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. CST. The Sunday broadcast is also broadcast by Emmis Communications’ KLBJ Radio. All broadcasts are also available online at prisonplanet.com and infowars.com for live, streaming, podcast or smartphone listening.[25]
Guests have included congressman Ron Paul, country music icon Willie Nelson, former Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura, author and speaker Jordan Maxwell, actor Charlie Sheen, rapper KRS-One, musician Shooter Jennings, Muse frontman Matthew Bellamy, British politicians Nigel Farage and Christopher Monckton, trends researcher Gerald Celente, musician Dave Mustaine of Megadeth, antiwar activist Cindy Sheehan, writer David Icke, the Rev. Ted Pike,[26] the Rev. Lindsey Williams, as well as various other guests.
Websites
Alex Jones is also the operator of several web sites centered on news and information about civil liberties issues, global government, and a wide variety of current events topics. The best known of these sites are http://www.infowars.com and http://www.prisonplanet.com.[citation needed]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Jones_%28radio_host%29
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“Let us also keep in mind that a demand for better answers is not a partisan exercise. As we have seen, most Republicans are broadly Keynesians, as are most Democrats, as are most parties throughout the world. This is what “everyone” has been taught. We are all thus caught up together in a circular argument(that Keynesianism is right because most people assume it is right). If we want to save our children from more failed experiments, we will need to embrace change, real change, not the “change” promised by President Obama and other political leaders that just takes us back to the 1930s.”
~Hunter Lewis
“Keynes did not add any new idea to the body of inflationist fallacies, a thousand times refuted by economists…
He merely knew how to cloak the plea for inflation and credit expansion in the sophisticated terminology of mathematical economics.”
~Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, pages 787 and 793
“…Synopsis
In responding to the financial crash of 2008, both the Bush Administration and the Obama Administration have relied on prescriptions developed by John Maynard Keynes, the most important economist since Marx. But should we be relying on Keynes? What did Keynes actually say? Did he make his case? Hunter Lewis concludes that he did not. If Keynes was wrong then so are the economic policies of virtually all world governments today.
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Where-Keynes-Went-Wrong/Hunter-Lewis/e/9781604190175
Hunter Lewis on ‘Where Keynes Went Wrong’
Best Books Criticizing Keynesian Economics | David Gordon
Keynesian Predictions vs. American History | Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
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Prepare for the Worst | Ron Paul
Bank Failures in a Keynesian World | Douglas E. French
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Revisiting the Economics of John Maynard Keynes | PBS NewsHour
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Thomas Sowell on Intellectuals and Society
“Let us hope that we do not have to wait too long for Keynes to join Mao and Marx and other faded and false utopian. To turn away from false utopias does not mean giving up on entirely attainable ends and ideals. We can have a stable economy, one built on truthful prices and profits. That economy can be sustainable both financially and environmentally, and it can, with work and persistence, finally put human poverty behind us.”
~Hunter Lewis
“In old fashioned language, Keynes proposed cheating the workers.”
~Ludwig von Mises, Economic Policy, page 70
For the last seventy-four years college students, both undergraduate and graduate, were taught Keynesian economics in their Macroeconomics courses. I was one of them.
The works of von Mises, Hayek, and Hazlitt were never mentioned.
Many professors, even today, do not know who they were.
Times are a changing.
Unfortunately the Keynesian cult is alive and well in the economics profession and in the White House.
One only wonders why any one would still take Keynes or Keynesian economists seriously.
Yet they do.
Apparently ideology trumps logical thinking, knowledge of economic history, the history of economic thought and common sense.
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Hunter Lewis dedicated his book to Henry Hazlitt and recommended especially his books, The Failure of the “New Economics” and Economics in One Lesson.
I could not agree more with his recommendations.
“The art of economics consists of looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.”
~Harry Hazlitt
“Henry Hazlitt did the seemingly impossible, something that was and is a magnificent service to all people everywhere. He wrote a line-by-line commentary and refutation of one of the most destructive, fallacious, and convoluted books of the century. The target here is John Maynard Keynes’s General Theory, the book that appeared in 1936 and swept all before it.
In economic science, Keynes changed everything. He supposedly demonstrated that prices don’t work, that private investment is unstable, that sound money is intolerable, and that government was needed to shore up the system and save it. It was simply astonishing how economists the world over put up with this, but it happened. He converted a whole generation in the late period of the Great Depression. By the 1950s, almost everyone was Keynesian.
But Hazlitt, the nation’s economics teacher, would have none of it. And he did the hard work of actually going through the book to evaluate its logic according to Austrian-style logical reasoning. The result: a 500-page masterpiece of exposition.
Murray Rothbard was blown away.
Keynes’ General Theory is here riddled chapter by chapter, line by line, with due account taken of the latest theoretical developments. The complete refutation of a vast network of fallacy can only be accomplished by someone thoroughly grounded in a sound positive theory. Henry Hazlitt has that groundwork.An “Austrian” follower of Ludwig von Mises, he is uniquely qualified for this task, and performs it surpassingly well. It is no exaggeration to say that this is by far the best book on economics published since Mises’ great Human Action in 1949. Mises’ work set forth the completed structure of the modern “Austrian” theory. Hazlitt’s fine critique of Keynes, based on these principles, is a worthy complement to Human Action.
Henry Hazlitt, a renowned economic journalist, is a better economist than a whole host of sterile academicians, and, in contrast to many of them, he is distinguished by courage: the courage to remain am “Austrian” in the teeth of the Keynesian holocaust, alongside Mises and F. A. Hayek. On its merits, this book should conquer the economics profession as rapidly as did Keynes.
But whether the currently fashionable economists read and digest this book or not is, in the long run, immaterial; it will be read, and it will destroy the Keynesian System. At the very least, there is now a new generation under thirty-five, to bring this message to fruition.
Far from being a dull read, this book has all the brightness and clarity we’ve come to expect from Hazlitt. He is a dazzling writer, and one can’t be thrill to see him in the ring with the giant Keynes. By the time he delivers the knock-out punch–taking on Keynes’s suggestion that we nationalize investment–there is nothing left of his opponent.
http://mises.org/store/Failure-of-the-New-Economics-The-P337.aspx
Background Articles and Videos
Epstein and Taylor: Are we all Keynesians now?
An Ideal Guide to Keynes’s Dangerous and Destructive Economics
by David Gordon
“…Lewis has exposed with unmatched clarity the lineaments of Keynes’s system and enabled us to see exactly its disabling defects. Keynes defied common sense, unable to sustain the brilliant paradoxes that his fertile intellect constantly devised. Lewis’s book is an ideal guide to Keynes’s dangerous and destructive economics.”
Biography of Henry Hazlitt (1894-1993)
Llewellyn H. Rockwell Jr.
Henry Hazlitt (1894-1993)
“…While at Newsweek, Hazlitt wrote Economics in One Lesson, which has sold nearly one million copies and is available in at least ten languages. Hazlitt argued that government intervention focuses on the consequences that are seen and ignores those that are not. The latter include wealth not created and even destroyed by regulation, inflation, and taxation. In 1947, he wrote Will Dollars Save the World?, a book attacking the Marshall Plan, which he saw as an international welfare scheme. The subsequent history of U.S. foreign aid shows just how right he was.
In 1950, Hazlitt became editor, along with John Chamberlain, of the fortnightly magazine, the Freeman; some of his best articles published there were later collected into The Wisdom of Henry Hazlitt. Also as a prophet, Hazlitt wrote The Great Idea (reprinted a year later as Time Will Run Back), a novel showing how a country can move from socialism to market economics at a time when most people thought socialism was the unstoppable wave of the future.
In 1959, Hazlitt came out with The Failure of the “New Economics,” an extraordinary line-by-line refutation of John Maynard Keynes’s General Theory. And though it was panned by the American academic journals at the time, it enlivened a growing movement favoring free markets over state planning and continues to be an essential resource. A year later, Hazlitt collected a series of scholarly attacks on Keynes as The Critics of Keynesian Economics, still in print today. …”
The Critics of Keynesian Economics
“…Henry Hazlitt confronted the rise of Keynesianism in his day and put together an intellectual arsenal: the most brilliant economists of the time showing what is wrong with the system, in great detail with great rigor. With excerpts from books and articles published between the 30s and 50s, it remains the most powerful anti-Keynesian collection ever assembled.
· Introduction By Henry Hazlitt
· Say’s Law By Jean Baptiste Say
· Of The Influence Of Consumption On Production By John Stuart Mill
· Mr. Keynes On The Causes Of Unemployment By Jacob Viner
· Unemployment: And Mr. Keynes’s Revolution In Economic Theory By Frank H. Knight
· Mr. Keynes’ “General Theory” By Etienne Mantoux
· The Economics Of Abundance By F. A. Hayek
· Liquidity Preference And The Theory Of Interest And Money By Franco Modigliani
· Digression On Keynes by Benjamin M. Anderson
· The Philosophy Of Lord Keynes By Philip Cortney
· Beveridge’s “Full Employment In A Free Society” By R. Gordon Wasson
· John Maynard Keynes By Garet Garrett
· The Fallacies Of Lord Keynes’ General Theory By Jacques Rueff
· Appraisal Of Keynesian Economics By John H. Williams
· Continental European Pre-Keynesianism By L. Albert Hahn
· Stones Into Bread, The Keynesian Miracle By Ludwig Von Mises
· Lord Keynes And Say’s Law By Ludwig Von Mises
· Lord Keynes And The Financial Community By Joseph Stagg Lawrence
· The Economics Of Full Employment By Wilhelm Ropke
· The Significance Of Price Flexibility By W. H. Hutt
· Keynes’ Theory Of Underemployment Equilibrium By Arthur F. Burns
· The Keynesian Mythology By Melchior Palyi
Mr. Keynes And The “Day Of Judgment” By David Mc Cord Wright
…”
http://mises.org/store/Critics-of-Keynesian-Economics-P559.aspx
The Making of the Keynes-Hayek Rap: Economic Theory Meets Popular Culture
Hayek on Keynes (1977)
Hayek on Keynes
Keynes and His Influence | Gary North
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Keynes and the “New Economics” of Fascism | by Joseph T. Salerno [Lecture 6 of 10]
Socialism and Fascism
John Taylor’s Reason Versus Paul Krugman’s Hyperbole (Part 1 of 2)
John Taylor’s Reason Versus Paul Krugman’s Hyperbole (Part 2 of 2)
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Hunter Lewis
“…Hunter Lewis was born in Dayton, Ohio, USA, in 1947 and graduated from the Groton School and Harvard University (AB 1969). After working at the Boston Company, then one of the largest investment managers, first as assistant to the president and then vice-president, in 1975 Lewis co-founded and served as co-chief executive and then chief executive of Cambridge Associates LLC[1], an investment advisor to research universities and colleges representing over three-quarters of U.S. higher education endowment assets, foundations, cultural organizations, international organizations and other non-profit institutions as well as families. Lewis was a co-inventor of what became known as the American University style of institutional investing[2], which gave American university endowment funds the highest investment returns in the world among institutional investors[3], and which became widely emulated.
In addition to his work at Cambridge Associates, Lewis has served as treasurer and president of the American School of Classical Studies at Athens, a graduate research institute affiliated with 150 American colleges and universities[4], president of the Alliance for Natural Health-USA[5], chairman of the National Environmental Trust[6], chairman of Dumbarton Oaks (affiliate of Harvard University)[6], founder and chairman of the Trearne Foundation, which provides educational assistance to foster children[7], chairman of the Worldwatch Institute[6], chairman of Shelburne Farms[8], treasurer of the World Wildlife Fund (World Wide Fund for Nature), trustee of World Wildlife Fund International[9], member of the Advisory Board of Environmental Health Sciences, trustee of the Morgan Library[6], trustee of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund[6], trustee of the Thomas Jefferson Foundation (Monticello)[6], trustee of the Peabody School[6], trustee of the Groton School[6], trustee of the Core Knowledge Foundation[10], and member of the World Bank Pension Finance Committee[6].
Lewis has contributed to many newspapers and periodicals including the New York Times, The Times,[11] the Washington Post, and the Atlantic Monthly as well as numerous websites such as Forbes.com. He also is an author and editor of books on economics and moral philosophy. His works include: Where Keynes Went Wrong: And Why World Governments Keep Creating Inflation, Bubbles, and Busts[12] (Axios Press; September 25, 2009), Are the Rich Necessary?: Great Economic Arguments and How They Reflect Our Personal Values[13] (Axios Press; September 25, 2007; Rev Updated PB edition October 30, 2009), A Question of Values : Six Ways We Make the Personal Choices That Shape Our Lives (Harper, Collins; 1990, Axios Press; Rev Updated edition May 25, 2000), The Beguiling Serpent (Axios Press; August 31, 2000), Alternative Values: For and Against Wealth, Power, Fame, Praise, Glory, and Physical Pleasure (Axios Press; July 25, 2005) and The Real World War (Coward, McCann & Geoghegan/Putnam; 1982).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Lewis
Cargo Cult
Cargo cult economics Littlewoods Direct
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The United States is Broke!–Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Time For GM and Ford Is Now!
The Sovereign Wealth Fund Threat: Are Chinese Communists Behind Rush In Passing Bailout Bill?
Pelosi’s Porky Pigout Poison Package–Economy Wrecker and Job Destroyer–Have A Blue Christmas 2009!
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The Latest From Peter Schiff–Videos
Peter Schiff P1
Peter Schiff P2
Peter Schiff P3
Peter Schiff P4
Peter Schiff P5
Background Articles and Videos
12/28/2009 Peter Schiff On The Glenn Beck Show: Will Gov’t Get Out Of The Way In 2010?
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