Dr. Lacy Hunt–Roadblocks To Recovery — The Economic Consequences of Debt — Heading Towards The Bang Point — “This is how the world ends not with a bang but a whimper.” — Videos

Posted on March 5, 2013. Filed under: American History, Banking, Blogroll, Business, College, Communications, Economics, Education, Federal Government, Federal Government Budget, Fiscal Policy, government, history, Inflation, Investments, Law, liberty, Links, Macroeconomics, media, Microeconomics, Monetary Policy, Money, People, Philosophy, Politics, Raves, Taxes, Video, Wealth, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , |

“Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”

“This is the way the world ends

Not with a bang but a whimper.”

“Most of the evil in this world is done by people with good intentions.”

T.S. Eliot

us_debt_percentage_gdp

us-debt-as-percentage-of-gdp

Total-US-Debt-As-A-Percentage-Of-GDP

us-standards

COMM-ChinaDebtGDP-051112

misery-index

“There Was No Increase In The Standard of Living Since 1997″ – Lacy Hunt

Kung Fu Girl interviews Lacy Hunt

Roadblocks to Recovery an Interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt

We Move Along Toward the Bang Point – Lacy Hunt

An Early Warning Sign is the Currency Depreciates – Lacy Hunt; Part II

Former Fed Official warns of multi-decade downturn PART 1 – Lacy Hunt

Former Fed Official warns of multi-decade downturn PART 2 – Lacy Hunt

T. S. Eliot – The Hollow Men

The Hollow Men T.S. Eliot How Cultures Die

Background Articles and Videos

Velocity of Money (Circulation) Part 1

Velocity of Money (Circulation) Part 2

Related Posts on Pronk Palisades

Lewis J. Spellman Interviews Dr. Lacy Hunt–The Morass of Debt–Videos

Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )

Weak Obama Recovery Ends–Great Obama Recession Economy Or GORE Starts–Labor Participation Rate in July 2011 Hits 27 Year Low of 63.9%–Over 130,000 Workers Leave Workforce In July 2011–No Jobs!–Videos

Posted on August 5, 2011. Filed under: American History, Banking, Blogroll, Communications, Economics, Employment, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, government, government spending, Health Care, history, Inflation, Investments, Language, Law, liberty, Life, media, Microeconomics, Money, People, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Public Sector, Rants, Resources, Talk Radio, Taxes, Technology, Transportation, Unions, Video, War, Wealth, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Unemployment Rate Dips, Economy Adds 117K Jobs

 

Morning Market Alert for August 5, 2011

 

Rep. Brady’s first round of questioning during JEC employment hearing 8-8-11

 

August 5th 2011 CNBC Stock Market Squawk Box July 2011 Jobs Report

 

 

AARP: Jeffrey Davis on 2011 Unemployment

Unemployment Rate Primer

 

NewsBusted 8/5/11

 

Peter Schiff “If Bush Had Been A Better President We Would Not Have Elected Obama!”

 

Market Plunge Startles Investors, But Fed ‘Out of Ammo’ Amid Double-Dip Fears

 

The August 2011 unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the unemployment rate had declined slightly from 9.2% to 9.1% in July and 117,000 nonfarm jobs were created with 154,000 jobs created in the private sector.

Series Id:           LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over
 
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9  
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0  
2008 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.3  
2009 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9  
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4  
2011 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.1            

This would normally be good news.

Looking closely at the numbers reveals that the labor participation declined to 63.9% the lowest rate since January 1984 when the U.S. economy was starting to recover from a recession that ended in November 1982.

Normally the labor participation rate falls in a range of between 66% to 67%.

Since President Obama has been in office the labor participation rate has declined from 65.7% in January 2009 to the new low of 63.9% in July 2011.

Even during the 12 month economic recovery from July 2009 through June 2010 the labor participation rate never went back over 66% and in fact never exceeded 65.7%.

 

Series Id:           LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

 

 

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1980 64.0 64.0 63.7 63.8 63.9 63.7 63.8 63.7 63.6 63.7 63.8 63.6  
1981 63.9 63.9 64.1 64.2 64.3 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.5 63.8 63.9 63.6  
1982 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.9 64.2 63.9 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.1  
1983 63.9 63.8 63.7 63.8 63.7 64.3 64.1 64.3 64.3 64.0 64.1 64.1  
1984 63.9 64.1 64.1 64.3 64.5 64.6 64.6 64.4 64.4 64.4 64.5 64.6  
1985 64.7 64.7 64.9 64.9 64.8 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.9 65.0 64.9 65.0  
1986 64.9 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.3  
1987 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.4 65.7 65.5 65.6 65.7 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.7  
1988 65.8 65.9 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.8 65.9 66.1 65.9 66.0 66.2 66.1  
1989 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.4 66.3 66.5 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.5  
1990 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.6 66.4 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.4  
1991 66.2 66.2 66.3 66.4 66.2 66.2 66.1 66.0 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0  
1992 66.3 66.2 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.2 66.3 66.3  
1993 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.1 66.4 66.5 66.4 66.4 66.2 66.3 66.3 66.4  
1994 66.6 66.6 66.5 66.5 66.6 66.4 66.4 66.6 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.7  
1995 66.8 66.8 66.7 66.9 66.5 66.5 66.6 66.6 66.6 66.6 66.5 66.4  
1996 66.4 66.6 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.9 66.7 66.9 67.0 67.0 67.0  
1997 67.0 66.9 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.2 67.2 67.1 67.1 67.2 67.2  
1998 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.2 67.2 67.1 67.2  
1999 67.2 67.2 67.0 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.1 67.1  
2000 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.1 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.8 66.9 67.0  
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7  
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3  
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9  
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9  
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0  
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4  
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0  
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.8 65.8  
2009 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.1 65.0 64.7  
2010 64.8 64.8 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.7 64.6 64.7 64.7 64.5 64.5 64.3  
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 63.9            

Unfortunately the primary reason for the small .1% decline in the unemployment rate was not that more workers  were finding employment in July.

Instead, the real reason the unemployment rate fell in July is that workers previously classified as unemployed were now considered discouraged workers and not unemployed or participating in the labor force.

Workers that normally would be considered unemployed left the labor force and became discouraged workers who are ready and willing to work and have looked for a job in the past, but now are so discouraged that they have stopped looking.

In July the number of discouraged workers rose from 982,000 in June to over 1,119,000 in July an increase of over 137,000.

Series Id:                       LNU05026645 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title:                    (Unadj) Not in Labor Force, Searched For Work and Available, Discouraged Reasons For Not Currently Looking Labor force status:              Not in labor force
Type of data:                    Number in thousands
Age:                             16 years and over
Job desires/not in labor force:  Want a job now
Reasons not in labor force:      Discouragement over job prospects  (Persons who believe no job is available.)
 

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 236 267 258 331 280 309 266 203 253 232 236 269 262
2001 301 287 349 349 328 294 310 337 285 331 328 348 321
2002 328 375 330 320 414 342 405 378 392 359 385 403 369
2003 449 450 474 437 482 478 470 503 388 462 457 433 457
2004 432 484 514 492 476 478 504 534 412 429 392 442 466
2005 515 485 480 393 392 476 499 384 362 392 404 451 436
2006 396 386 451 381 323 481 428 448 325 331 349 274 381
2007 442 375 381 399 368 401 367 392 276 320 349 363 369
2008 467 396 401 412 400 420 461 381 467 484 608 642 462
2009 734 731 685 740 792 793 796 758 706 808 861 929 778
2010 1065 1204 994 1197 1083 1207 1185 1110 1209 1219 1282 1318 1173
2011 993 1020 921 989 822 982 1119            

The U.S. economy needs to create between 100,000 to 150,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and new entrants into the labor force.

Each month  high school and college graduates and drop-outs enter the labor force for the first time.

In addition to jobs filled by new entrants into the labor force, the U.S. economy needs to create between 150,000 to 160,000 new jobs each month to reduce the unemployment rate by just .1% per month.

Therefore the U.S. economy needs to create approximately 300,000 new jobs  each month to reduce the unemployment by .1%.

While the total number of new jobs created was estimated to be 117,000 in July this is barely enough to keep up with population growth and not even close to the 300,000 jobs needed to actually reduce the unemployment rate by .1%.

The creation of 300,000 new jobs each month would require a growth rate in the Gross Domestic Product of between 3% to 4% or roughly a 3.5% growth rate.

The U.S economy grew at only a .4% rate for the first quarter on 2011 and 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011.

This is signficantly less than the 3.5% growth rate in real GDP needed to reduce unemployment by .1% each month.

The primary reason the unemployment rate fell by  .1% in July instead of remaining flator increasing was workers becoming discouraged at their job prospects and left the labor force.

This is indeed depressing news.

The U.S economy reached a peak in GDP growth in the middle of  2010.

Since then the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product measure in real terms has steadily declined for four consecutive quarters.

The Weak Obama Recovery has ended and the Great Obama Recession Economy or GORE has started.

The recent correction of over 10% on Wall Street is a leading indicator that the GORE has begun.

When will the recession hit bottom  and another recovery begin?

When President Barack Obama is voted out of office in November 2012.

Until then keep looking for a job and do not become discouraged.

The Unemployment Game Show: Are You *Really* Unemployed?

 

Should the Bureau of Labor Statistics call you, tell them you have been looking for work.

Only then will you be considered unemployed and not be considered a discouraged worker.

A discouraged worker is classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistic as an individual that has left the labor force or is no longer participating.

This is one of the reasons the labor participation rate hit a new low of just 63.7% in July.

I expect the official unemployment rate to go over 10% in the first half of 2012 and then start to decline to just over 9% by election day 2012.

The US Misery Index by President
January 1948 to June 2011

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate

President Time Period Start End Change Avg.
 
Richard M. Nixon 1969-01 – 1974-07 7.80 17.01 9.21 10.57
James E. Carter, Jr. 1977-01 – 1980-12 12.72 19.72 7.00 16.26
Barack H. Obama 2009-01 – 2011-06 7.83 12.76 4.93 10.45
Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-01 – 1960-12 3.28 7.96 4.68 6.26
Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-11 – 1968-12 7.02 8.12 1.10 6.77
George H.W. Bush 1989-01 – 1992-12 10.07 10.30 0.23 10.68
George W. Bush 2001-01 – 2008-12 7.93 7.49 -0.44 8.11
John F. Kennedy 1961-01 – 1963-10 8.31 6.82 -1.49 7.14
William J. Clinton 1993-01 – 2000-12 10.56 7.29 -3.27 7.80
Gerald R. Ford 1974-08 – 1976-12 16.36 12.66 -3.70 16.00
Ronald W. Reagan 1981-01 – 1988-12 19.33 9.72 -9.61 12.19
Harry S. Truman 1948-01 – 1952-12 13.63 3.45 -10.18 7.88

The OMI or Obama Misery Index, the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates has been rising and is at a new high of over 12.72% and heading for 15%.

This is better than President Jimmy Carter with a Misery Index over 20% in 1980.

President Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.

The economic recovery or expansion of the U.S. economy will start when the American people become convinced that President Obama cannot be elected to a second term as President of the United States.

This will happen on or before Tuesday, November 6, 2012.

During the Great Depression the rate of unemployment hit a monthly high of 24.9% in March 1933 with about 13 million American unemployed, the month Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn in as President.

Today there are over 14 million American unemployed as measured by the offical unemployment rate (U-3) and over 25 million Americans seeking a full-time job as measured by the total unemployment rate (U-6).

A popular song in 1933 was Happy Days Are Here Again that may very well become a hit again in 2013!

Barbra Streisand – Happy Days Are Here Again

So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last

Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let’s sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Altogether shout it now
There’s no one
Who can doubt it now
So let’s tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Your cares and troubles are gone
There’ll be no more from now on
From now on …

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, Let’s sing a song of cheer again

Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!

 

Background Articles and Videos

Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One | Peter Schiff

 

EAT THE RICH!

 

What We Believe, Part 1: Small Government and Free Enterprise

 

What We Believe, Part 2: The Problem with Elitism

 

What We Believe, Part 3: Wealth Creation

 

Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 – 2007 (2nd Edition)

Ron Paul Was Right (1983-2008)

Ron Paul was Right

Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )

Rose Colored Glasses: The Economy Is Recovering–Where Are The Jobs? When Will Inflation Hit? 2012–Election Year!

Posted on October 29, 2009. Filed under: Blogroll, Economics, Employment, Fiscal Policy, government spending, Health Care, Law, liberty, Life, Links, Medicine, Monetary Policy, People, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Regulations, Resources, Video, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , |

rose_colored_glasses

John Conlee – Rose Coloured Glasses “LIVE”

White House: 3rd Qtr. Growth ‘Welcome Milestone’

Weekly Economic Insights: Confidence, Jobs, Spending Down

Jobless Recovery?

Stiglitz Sees Risk of `Big Bumps’ in U.S. Economic Recovery

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJrLqTMK8f0

Inside Look – Economy Needs “Something Else”

SHUT UP SIT DOWN AND LISTEN: Bernanke Hypnotic Fed Balance Sheet Pwnocracy Seigniorage Inflation Tax

T-Paw: Federal government needs to stop spending money 

Craig Morgan & John Conlee – Rose Colored Glasses

Background Articles and Videos

Joseph Stiglitz Problems with GDP as an Economic Barometer

Pawlenty: Government run health care is a sham

Pawlenty: Don’t federalize health care

‘Very Serious Blow’

Related Posts On Pronk Palisades

Depressions and Recessions

The Obama Depression Continues–Official Unemployment Hits Rate 9.8% (15,142,000 Seek Full Time Job) and Real Unemployment Rate Hits 17.0% (26,181,000 Seek Full Time Job)!

The Battle Between Keynes and Monetarism in the UK–Videos

The Obama Depression Has Arrived: 15,000,000 to 25,000,000 Unemployed Americans–Stimulus Package and Bailouts A Failure–400,000 Leave Labor Force In July!

Banking Cartel’s Public Relations Campaign Continues:Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke On The Record

The Bush Recession Is Over–The Obama Depression Has Begun!

The Big Economic Picture–Some Perspectives–Videos

United States Economic Depressions–The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly–Obama’s Depression–Over 15,000,000 Americans Seek Full Time Job!

The Triumph of Capitalism and The Power of Consumer Sovereignty Over Massive Government Failure–Bankruptcy of General Motors–Now Government Motors! 

BO’s Raw Deal: Obama’s Two Year Recession and Two Year Hyperinflation–Hopeless & Small Change!

It Is Official–The U.S. Economy Has Been In A Recession for 11 Months and Continuing!

Recession–Recession–Recession–Scaring People–Have A Hot Dog!

Rush Limbaugh: Obama is Destroying the Economy!–Videos

Bureau of Labor Statistics–Selected Tables on Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( 2 so far )

Liked it here?
Why not try sites on the blogroll...

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 615 other followers