Santa Obama’s $9 minimum wage: good propaganda, bad economics
By Raymond Thomas Pronk
Presidential economic policies like the proverbial “road to hell” are often paved with good intentions.
In his 2013 State of the Union address, President Barack Obama said:
“Even with the tax relief we’ve put in place, a family with two kids that earns the minimum wage still lives below the poverty line. That’s wrong. Tonight, let’s declare that in the wealthiest nation on Earth, no one who works full time should have to live in poverty and raise the federal minimum wage to $9 an hour. This single step would raise the incomes of millions of working families. It could mean the difference between groceries or the food bank; rent or eviction; scraping by or finally getting ahead. For businesses across the country, it would mean customers with more money in their pockets.”
Why not increase the minimum wage to $18 per hour and win America’s war on poverty?
What are the economic consequences or impact of a $9 minimum wage on young high school and college students seeking employment? A decidedly negative impact if economic history is any guide.
The large increase in teenage unemployment is partly driven by the increase in the minimum wage. When the minimum wage rate was increased in July 2008 from $5.85 to $6.55 there was an upward spike in the teenage unemployment rate to greater than 20 percent. When the minimum wage was again increased in July 2009 from $6.55 to its current rate of $7.25, there was another upward spike in the teenage unemployment rate to greater than 25 percent. This rising trend of upward spikes in teenage unemployment rates after an increase in the minimum wage is reflected in the following chart.
Unemployment rate or percent of 16-19 years from 1948 to present
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor
David Neumark, professor of economics at the University of California, Irvine and William L. Wascher, deputy director in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board, in their book, “Minimum Wages,” provide a comprehensive review of the evidence on the economic effects of minimum wage laws. They concluded that such laws reduce employment opportunities for less-skilled workers, tend to reduce their earnings and are not very effective in reducing poverty.
If Congress passes an increase in the minimum wage to $9 as proposed by Obama, young, inexperienced, low-skill workers, especially blacks and Hispanics, will again be hurt for they will not be hired by businesses who cannot afford to pay them the higher mandated minimum wage. This will be reflected in yet another spike upward in the teenage unemployment rate that might exceed 30 percent.
Furthermore, young American citizens, especially blacks and Hispanics, will face stiff competition from the more than 11 million illegal aliens who predominantly seek low-skilled jobs. Obama and progressives in both the Democratic and Republican parties want to grant these illegal aliens immediate legal status to work in the U.S.
Obama is repeating the past economic policy mistakes of progressive presidents from both political parties such as Hoover, Roosevelt, Truman, Johnson, Nixon, Carter and the Bushes in mandating higher than free market wage rates. These well-intentioned but massive government interventionist economic policies lead to prolonged depressions and recessions with high unemployment rates, especially for young, inexperienced, low skilled and minority workers.
Thirty years ago the black economist, Walter E. Williams, explored the effects of federal and state government intervention into the economy, including minimum wage laws, in the PBS documentary, Good Intentions, based upon his 1982 book, “The State Against Blacks.” Those favoring a rise in the federal minimum wage would be well advised to view this video together with “Milton Friedman on the Minimum Wage” on YouTube before advocating an increase in the minimum wage.
For young American citizens an entry-level job paying a lower competitive market wage rate is preferable to no job at a higher government mandated minimum wage.
Good intentions are not enough. Results measured in jobs created count.
Raymond Thomas Pronk is host of the Pronk Pops Show on KDUX web radio from 3-5 p.m. Fridays and author of the companion blog http://www.pronkpops.wordpress.com/
Digital Age-Why is Coolidge the Forgotten President?-Amity Shlaes
Sumner’s Explanation of The Forgotten Man – Revised for the 21st Century
Sumner’s Explanation of The Forgotten Man – Revised for the 21st
Century
By Joshua Lyons 9/25/09
As soon as A observes something which seems to him to be wrong, from which X is suffering, A talks it over with B, and A and B then propose to get a law passed – with the praise of Y – to remedy the evil and help X.
Their law always proposes to determine what C shall do for X or, in the better case, what A, B and C shall do for X.
As for A and B, who get a law to make themselves do for X what they are willing to do for him, we have nothing to say except that they might better have done it without any law, but C is forced to comply with the new law.
All this is done while Y looks on with glee and proclaims that A and B are so good for helping poor X.
A is the politician B is the humanitarian, special interest, do-gooder, reformer, social speculator, etc. C is The Forgotten Man (i.e. you, me, us) X is the downtrodden, the oppressed, the little guy, the misunderstood, etc. Y is the Mainstream Media
In other words…
As soon as THE POLITICIAN observes something which seems to him to be wrong, from which THE DOWNTRODDEN is suffering, THE POLITICIAN talks it over with THE HUMANITARIAN, and THE POLITICIAN and THE HUMANITARIAN then propose to get a law passed – with the praise of THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA – to remedy the evil and help THE DOWNTRODDEN.
Their law always proposes to determine what THE FORGOTTEN MAN shall do for THE DOWNTRODDEN or, in the
better case, what THE POLITICIAN, THE HUMANITARIAN and THE FORGOTTEN MAN shall do for THE DOWNTRODDEN.
As for THE POLITICIAN and THE HUMANITARIAN, who get a law to make themselves do for THE DOWNTRODDEN what they are willing to do for him, we have
nothing to say except that they might better have done it without any law, but THE FORGOTTEN MAN is forced to comply with the new law.
All this is done while THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA looks on with glee and proclaims that THE POLITICIAN and THE HUMANITARIAN are so good for helping poor THE DOWNTRODDEN.
The preceding commentary was based on William Graham Sumner’s explanation of The Forgotten Man.
Obama: “Raise Minimum Wage to $9 an Hour” – SOTU 2013
More on Minimum Wage
Obama’s $9/Hour SOTU Minimum Wage
Milton Friedman on Minimum Wage
Power of the Market – Minimum Wage
Williams with Sowell – Minimum Wage
The Job-Killing Impact of Minimum Wage Laws
“Good Intentions” by Dr. Walter Williams
Dr. Walter Williams’ 1982 PBS documentary “Good Intentions” based on his book, “The State Against Blacks”. The documentary was very controversial at the time it was released and led to many animosities and even threats of murder.
In “Good Intentions”, Dr. Williams examines the failure of the war on poverty and the devastating effect of well meaning government policies on blacks asserting that the state harms people in the U.S. more than it helps them. He shows how government anti-poverty programs have often locked people into poverty making the points that:
- being forced to attend 3rd rate public schools leave students unprepared for working life
- minimum wages prevent young people from obtaining jobs at an early age
- licensing and labor laws have had the effect of restricting entrance of blacks into the skilled trades and unions
- the welfare system creates perverse incentives for the poor to make bad choices they otherwise would not
Dr. Williams presents the following solutions to these problems:
Failing Public Schools – Give parents greater control over their children’s education by setting up a tuition tax credit or voucher system to broaden competition in turn revitalizing both public and non-public schools
Minimum Wages – Remove the minimum wage from youngsters to give more young people the chance to learn the world of work at an early age instead spending their free time idle an possibly falling into the habits of the street
Restrictive Labor Laws, Jobs Programs – Eliminate government roadblocks that prevent new entrepreneurs from starting their own business
Welfare Programs – Enact a compassionate welfare system such as a negative income tax which would remove dependency and dis-incentives for the poor to get themselves out of poverty
Scholars interviewed in the documentary include Donald Eberle, Charles Murray, and George Gilder.
Good Intentions 1 of 3 Introduction and Public Schools with Walter Williams
Good Intentions 2 of 3 Minimum Wage, Licensing, and Labor Laws with Walter
Good Intentions 3 of 3 The Welfare System and Conclusions with Walter Williams
Government Intervention and Individual Freedom | Walter Williams
Obama: “Time to Pass Immigration Reform” – State of the Union 2013
Contrasting Views of the Great Depression | Robert P. Murphy
Why You’ve Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920 | Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
Uncommon Knowledge: The Great Depression with Amity Shlaes
Calvin Coolidge: The Best President You’ve Never Heard Of – Amity Shlaes
Amity Shlaes, Author, “Coolidge”
Keep Cool With Coolidge, Not Obama: Obama Reveals His True Hatred of Business
The number of Americans employed when Obama became President in January 2009 was 142,187,000.
The number of Americans employed in July 2012 was 142,220,000.
The net increase in number of Americans employed after 42 months of the Obama Presidency is 33,000!
The U.S. economy needs to create between 130,000 and 140,000 jobs per month to just keep up with population growth according to Commissioner Dr. Keith Hall of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Vice Chairman Brady Questions BLS Commissioner at JEC Hearing on the Employment Situation
Between 130,000 to 140,000 need to be created each month to keep up with population growth!
At a Joint Economic Committee Hearing on the Employment Situation, Representative Kevin Brady, Vice Chairman, questions Witness Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics about the effect of government spending on private sector job growth.
For the 42 months that Obama has been President, a minimum of 130,000 jobs per month times 42 months or 5,460,000 new jobs needed to be created to just keep up with population growth.
Instead only a net increase in the employment level of 33,000 new jobs was created during the last 42 months.
The U.S. economy and employment level peaked in November 2007 when the number of employed Americans was 146,595,000.
From November 2007 to January 2009, the economy lost 4,408,000 jobs (146,595,000 employed in November 2007 minus 142,187,000 employed in January 2009).
To keep up with population growth during this 14 month period the economy needed to produce another 1,820,000 in new jobs ( 14 months times 130,000 new jobs per month) from December 2007 through January 2009.
Barack Obama became President in January 2009.
For the U.S. economy to reach it previous peak employment level of 146,595,000 plus the growth in the labor force from November 2007 through July 2012, the U.S. economy would need to create a total of ( 5,460,000 + 1,820,000 + 4,408,000) or 11,668,000 new jobs for a total employment level of 153,855,000.
The current employment level is 142,220,000 as of the August 3, 2012 Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Survey.
Barack Obama’s economic policies have produced in 42 months a net increase of only 33,000 in the employment level or new jobs when 11,668,000 new jobs were needed to reach the previous of peak in the employment level under President Bush plus the growth in the labor force.
Obama on jobs report: Still too many people out of work
In the above speech given on August 3, Barack Obama misleads the American people about his failed economic policies in creating jobs.
By January 2013, the total increase in the Federal national debtunder President Obama will exceed $5,300 billionover a 48 month period due to government deficit spending greater than $1,297 billion per year for four consecutive years.
This is fiscal insanity.
Obama’s economic policies failed to grow the economy and create jobs.
Obama does not deserve another term as president.
Obama is not working.
More Jobs, Higher Unemployment Rate, July Report Says
July Unemployment Rate Rises to 8.3%- More Jobs Lost (195k) Than Gained (163k)
“It’s Been Four Years”
Trapped in Unemployment
Romney’s promise of 12 million jobs
Will Jobs Numbers Determine Election? Not So Far
Unemployment rate UP to 8.3% – REAL rate UP to 15% with Obama focus on jobs
Jobs Added in July but Unemployment Rate Rises
July Jobs Report: 163,000 jobs added
Rep. Kevin Brady Jobs Numbers Interview with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow 07-06-12
Congressman Kevin Brady Questions Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke 6-7-12
Rep. Kevin Brady Repeal Floor Speech 07-10-2012
We Told You They Are Lying about Unemployment
Unemployment Rate Primer
Lew Rockwell Pins the Tail on Ben Bernanke and the Rest of Washington’s Donkeys!
Lew Rockwell: The Government is A Gang of Thieves at Large!
Employment Level–144.2 Million
Series Id: LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment Level Labor force status: Employed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
137778
137612
137783
137299
137092
136873
137071
136241
136846
136392
136238
136047
2002
135701
136438
136177
136126
136539
136415
136413
136705
137302
137008
136521
136426
2003
137417(1)
137482
137434
137633
137544
137790
137474
137549
137609
137984
138424
138411
2004
138472(1)
138542
138453
138680
138852
139174
139556
139573
139487
139732
140231
140125
2005
140245(1)
140385
140654
141254
141609
141714
142026
142434
142401
142548
142499
142752
2006
143150(1)
143457
143741
143761
144089
144353
144202
144625
144815
145314
145534
145970
2007
146028(1)
146057
146320
145586
145903
146063
145905
145682
146244
145946
146595
146273
2008
146397(1)
146157
146108
146130
145929
145738
145530
145196
145059
144792
144078
143328
2009
142187(1)
141660
140754
140654
140294
140003
139891
139458
138775
138401
138607
137968
2010
138500(1)
138665
138836
139306
139340
139137
139139
139338
139344
139072
138937
139220
2011
139330(1)
139551
139764
139628
139808
139385
139450
139754
140107
140297
140614
140790
2012
141637(1)
142065
142034
141865
142287
142415
142220
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Civilian Labor Force Level–155 Million
Series Id: LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level Labor force status: Civilian labor force Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
143800
143701
143924
143569
143318
143357
143654
143284
143989
144086
144240
144305
2002
143883
144653
144481
144725
144938
144808
144803
145009
145552
145314
145041
145066
2003
145937(1)
146100
146022
146474
146500
147056
146485
146445
146530
146716
147000
146729
2004
146842(1)
146709
146944
146850
147065
147460
147692
147564
147415
147793
148162
148059
2005
148029(1)
148364
148391
148926
149261
149238
149432
149779
149954
150001
150065
150030
2006
150214(1)
150641
150813
150881
151069
151354
151377
151716
151662
152041
152406
152732
2007
153144(1)
152983
153051
152435
152670
153041
153054
152749
153414
153183
153835
153918
2008
154075(1)
153648
153925
153761
154325
154316
154480
154646
154559
154875
154622
154626
2009
154236(1)
154521
154143
154450
154800
154730
154538
154319
153786
153822
153833
153091
2010
153454(1)
153704
153964
154528
154216
153653
153748
154073
153918
153709
154041
153613
2011
153250(1)
153302
153392
153420
153700
153409
153358
153674
154004
154057
153937
153887
2012
154395(1)
154871
154707
154365
155007
155163
155013
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Labor Force Participation Rate–63.7%
Series Id: LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
67.2
67.1
67.2
66.9
66.7
66.7
66.8
66.5
66.8
66.7
66.7
66.7
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9
2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0
2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4
2007
66.4
66.3
66.2
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0
2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
66.0
65.8
65.8
2009
65.7
65.8
65.6
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.5
65.4
65.1
65.0
65.0
64.6
2010
64.8
64.9
64.9
65.1
64.9
64.6
64.6
64.7
64.6
64.4
64.5
64.3
2011
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.1
64.0
64.1
64.1
64.1
64.0
64.0
2012
63.7
63.9
63.8
63.6
63.8
63.8
63.7
Unemployment Level–12.8 Million
Series Id: LNS13000000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level Labor force status: Unemployed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
6023
6089
6141
6271
6226
6484
6583
7042
7142
7694
8003
8258
2002
8182
8215
8304
8599
8399
8393
8390
8304
8251
8307
8520
8640
2003
8520
8618
8588
8842
8957
9266
9011
8896
8921
8732
8576
8317
2004
8370
8167
8491
8170
8212
8286
8136
7990
7927
8061
7932
7934
2005
7784
7980
7737
7672
7651
7524
7406
7345
7553
7453
7566
7279
2006
7064
7184
7072
7120
6980
7001
7175
7091
6847
6727
6872
6762
2007
7116
6927
6731
6850
6766
6979
7149
7067
7170
7237
7240
7645
2008
7678
7491
7816
7631
8395
8578
8950
9450
9501
10083
10544
11299
2009
12049
12860
13389
13796
14505
14727
14646
14861
15012
15421
15227
15124
2010
14953
15039
15128
15221
14876
14517
14609
14735
14574
14636
15104
14393
2011
13919
13751
13628
13792
13892
14024
13908
13920
13897
13759
13323
13097
2012
12758
12806
12673
12500
12720
12749
12794
Unemployment Rate U-3–8.3%
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.7
2002
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.0
2003
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
2004
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
2005
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
2006
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
2007
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
5.0
2008
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.1
6.5
6.8
7.3
2009
7.8
8.3
8.7
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.8
10.0
9.9
9.9
2010
9.7
9.8
9.8
9.9
9.6
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.8
9.4
2011
9.1
9.0
8.9
9.0
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.0
8.9
8.7
8.5
2012
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.3
Total Unemployment Rate U-6–15%
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.8
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.6
2002
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
2003
10.0
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
2004
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.2
2005
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.7
8.7
8.6
2006
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.0
8.2
8.1
7.9
2007
8.4
8.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.8
2008
9.2
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.7
10.1
10.5
10.8
11.1
11.8
12.7
13.5
2009
14.2
15.1
15.7
15.8
16.4
16.5
16.5
16.7
16.8
17.2
17.1
17.1
2010
16.7
16.9
16.9
17.0
16.6
16.5
16.5
16.6
16.9
16.8
16.9
16.6
2011
16.1
15.9
15.7
15.9
15.8
16.2
16.1
16.2
16.4
16.0
15.6
15.2
2012
15.1
14.9
14.5
14.5
14.8
14.9
15.0
Comparison of U.S. Recoveries from Recession
1949-2007
Real Gross Domest Product (GDP) Growth Rates
Background Articles and Videos
Did Mitt Romney Call President Obama A Liar?
Romney Aid: Obama’s Ad Is a Lie
Current Population Survey
August 3, 2012
Employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys:
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-12-1531
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, August 3, 2012
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2012
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate
was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking
places, and manufacturing.
Household Survey Data
Both the number of unemployed persons (12.8 million)and the unemployment rate (8.3
percent) were essentially unchanged in July. Both measures have shown little movement
thus far in 2012. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics (10.3 percent) edged
down in July, while the rates for adult men (7.7 percent), adult women (7.5 percent),
teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and blacks (14.1 percent)showed little
or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.2 percent in July (not seasonally
adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed at 5.2 million. These individuals accounted for 40.7 percent of the
unemployed. (See table A-12.)
Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.7 percent, and the employment-
population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little in July. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as
involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million in July. These
individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because
they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In July, 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down from 2.8
million a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were
not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job
sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 852,000 discouraged workers in July, a decline
of 267,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged
workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are
available for them. The remaining 1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor
force in July had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons
such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July. Since the beginning of this
year, employment growth has averaged 151,000 per month, about the same as the average
monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. In July, employment rose in professional and business
services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing. (See table B-1.)
Employment in professional and business services increased by 49,000 in July. Computer
systems design added 7,000 jobs, and employment in temporary help services continued
to trend up (+14,000).
Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places rose by
29,000 over the month and by 292,000 over the past 12 months.
Manufacturing employment rose in July (+25,000), with nearly all of the increase in durable
goods manufacturing. Within durable goods, the motor vehicles and parts industry had fewer
seasonal layoffs than is typical for July, contributing to a seasonally adjusted employment
increase of 13,000. Employment continued to trend up in fabricated metal products (+5,000).
Employment continued to trend up in health care in July (+12,000), with over-the-month
gains in outpatient care centers (+4,000) and in hospitals (+5,000). Employment also
continued to trend up in wholesale trade.
Utilities employment declined in July (-8,000). The decrease reflects 8,500 utility workers
who were off payrolls due to a labor-management dispute.
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, retail
trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government, showed little
or no change over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at
34.5 hours in July. Both the manufacturing workweek, at 40.7 hours, and factory overtime,
at 3.2 hours, were unchanged over the month. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See
tables B-2 and B-7.)
In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up
by 2 cents to $23.52. Over the year, average hourly earnings rose by 1.7 percent. In July,
average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased
by 2 cents to $19.77. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +77,000 to +87,000,
and the change for June was revised from +80,000 to +64,000.
_____________
The Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 7, 2012,
at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
Glenn Hubbard: The Romney Plan for Economic Recovery
Tax cuts, spending restraint and repeal of Obama’s regulatory excesses would
mean 12 million new jobs in his first term alone
By Glenn Hubbard
“…We are currently in the most anemic economic recovery in the memory of most Americans. Declining consumer sentiment and business concerns over policy uncertainty weigh on the minds of all of us. We must fix our economy’s growth and jobs machine.
We can do this. The U.S. economy has the talent, ideas, energy and capital for the robust economic growth that has characterized much of America’s experience in our lifetimes. Our standard of living and the nation’s standing as a world power depend on restoring that growth.
But to do so we must have vastly different policies aimed at stopping runaway federal spending and debt, reforming our tax code and entitlement programs, and scaling back costly regulations. Those policies cannot be found in the president’s proposals. They are, however, the core of Gov. Mitt Romney’s plan for economic recovery and renewal.
In response to the recession, the Obama administration chose to emphasize costly, short-term fixes—ineffective stimulus programs, myriad housing programs that went nowhere, and a rush to invest in “green” companies.
As a consequence, uncertainty over policy—particularly over tax and regulatory policy—slowed the recovery and limited job creation. One recent study by Scott Baker and Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago found that this uncertainty reduced GDP by 1.4% in 2011 alone, and that returning to pre-crisis levels of uncertainty would add about 2.3 million jobs in just 18 months.
The Obama administration’s attempted short-term fixes, even with unprecedented monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, produced average GDP growth of just 2.2% over the past three years, and the consensus outlook appears no better for the year ahead.
Moreover, the Obama administration’s large and sustained increases in debt raise the specter of another financial crisis and large future tax increases, further chilling business investment and job creation. A recent study by Ernst & Young finds that the administration’s proposal to increase marginal tax rates on the wage, dividend and capital-gain income of upper-income Americans would reduce GDP by 1.3% (or $200 billion per year), kill 710,000 jobs, depress investment by 2.4%, and reduce wages and living standards by 1.8%. And according to the Congressional Budget Office, the large deficits codified in the president’s budget would reduce GDP during 2018-2022 by between 0.5% and 2.2% compared to what would occur under current law.
President Obama has ignored or dismissed proposals that would address our anti-competitive tax code and unsustainable trajectory of federal debt—including his own bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform—and submitted no plan for entitlement reform. In February, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner famously told congressional Republicans that this administration was putting forth no plan, but “we know we don’t like yours.”
Other needed reforms would emphasize opening global markets for U.S. goods and services—but the president has made no contribution to the global trade agenda, while being dragged to the support of individual trade agreements only recently.
The president’s choices cannot be ascribed to a political tug of war with Republicans in Congress. He and Democratic congressional majorities had two years to tackle any priority they chose. They chose not growth and jobs but regulatory expansion. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act raised taxes, unleashed significant new spending, and raised hiring costs for workers. The Dodd-Frank Act missed the mark on housing and “too-big-to-fail” financial institutions but raised financing costs for households and small and mid-size businesses.
These economic errors and policy choices have consequences—record high long-term unemployment and growing ranks of discouraged workers. Sadly, at the present rate of job creation and projected labor-force growth, the nation will never return to full employment.
It doesn’t have to be this way. The Romney economic plan would fundamentally change the direction of policy to increase GDP and job creation now and going forward. The governor’s plan puts growth and recovery first, and it stands on four main pillars:
• Stop runaway federal spending and debt. The governor’s plan would reduce federal spending as a share of GDP to 20%—its pre-crisis average—by 2016. This would dramatically reduce policy uncertainty over the need for future tax increases, thus increasing business and consumer confidence.
• Reform the nation’s tax code to increase growth and job creation. The Romney plan would reduce individual marginal income tax rates across the board by 20%, while keeping current low tax rates on dividends and capital gains. The governor would also reduce the corporate income tax rate—the highest in the world—to 25%. In addition, he would broaden the tax base to ensure that tax reform is revenue-neutral.
• Reform entitlement programs to ensure their viability. The Romney plan would gradually reduce growth in Social Security and Medicare benefits for more affluent seniors and give more choice in Medicare programs and benefits to improve value in health-care spending. It would also block grant the Medicaid program to states to enable experimentation that might better serve recipients.
• Make growth and cost-benefit analysis important features of regulation. The governor’s plan would remove regulatory impediments to energy production and innovation that raise costs to consumers and limit new job creation. He would also work with Congress toward repealing and replacing the costly and burdensome Dodd–Frank legislation and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The Romney alternatives will emphasize better financial regulation and market-oriented, patient-centered health-care reform.
In contrast to the sclerosis and joblessness of the past three years, the Romney plan offers an economic U-turn in ideas and choices. When bolstered by sound trade, education, energy and monetary policy, the Romney reform program is expected by the governor’s economic advisers to increase GDP growth by between 0.5% and 1% per year over the next decade. It should also speed up the current recovery, enabling the private sector to create 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month, or about 12 million new jobs in a Romney first term, and millions more after that due to the plan’s long-run growth effects.
But these gains aren’t just about numbers, as important as those numbers are. The Romney approach will restore confidence in America’s economic future and make America once again a place to invest and grow.
Mr. Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business School, was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. He is an economic adviser to Gov. Romney. …”
April 6th 2012 CNBC Stock Market Squawk Box (March Jobs Report)
March Unemployment Rate Analysis
MSNBC – Nightly News – Report ‘Landed With A Thud’ 4-6-2012
Reuters – Krueger – A Lot Of Work To Be Done After Weak March Jobs Data 4-6-2012
Romney Tax Plans Will Boost U.S. Economy, Chen Says
Employment Level
Series Id: LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
136559(1)
136598
136701
137270
136630
136940
136531
136662
136893
137088
137322
137614
2001
137778
137612
137783
137299
137092
136873
137071
136241
136846
136392
136238
136047
2002
135701
136438
136177
136126
136539
136415
136413
136705
137302
137008
136521
136426
2003
137417(1)
137482
137434
137633
137544
137790
137474
137549
137609
137984
138424
138411
2004
138472(1)
138542
138453
138680
138852
139174
139556
139573
139487
139732
140231
140125
2005
140245(1)
140385
140654
141254
141609
141714
142026
142434
142401
142548
142499
142752
2006
143150(1)
143457
143741
143761
144089
144353
144202
144625
144815
145314
145534
145970
2007
146028(1)
146057
146320
145586
145903
146063
145905
145682
146244
145946
146595
146273
2008
146397(1)
146157
146108
146130
145929
145738
145530
145196
145059
144792
144078
143328
2009
142187(1)
141660
140754
140654
140294
140003
139891
139458
138775
138401
138607
137968
2010
138500(1)
138665
138836
139306
139340
139137
139139
139338
139344
139072
138937
139220
2011
139330(1)
139551
139764
139628
139808
139385
139450
139754
140107
140297
140614
140790
2012
141637(1)
142065
142034
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Civilian Labor Force
Series Id: LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status: Civilian labor force
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
142267(1)
142456
142434
142751
142388
142591
142278
142514
142518
142622
142962
143248
2001
143800
143701
143924
143569
143318
143357
143654
143284
143989
144086
144240
144305
2002
143883
144653
144481
144725
144938
144808
144803
145009
145552
145314
145041
145066
2003
145937(1)
146100
146022
146474
146500
147056
146485
146445
146530
146716
147000
146729
2004
146842(1)
146709
146944
146850
147065
147460
147692
147564
147415
147793
148162
148059
2005
148029(1)
148364
148391
148926
149261
149238
149432
149779
149954
150001
150065
150030
2006
150214(1)
150641
150813
150881
151069
151354
151377
151716
151662
152041
152406
152732
2007
153144(1)
152983
153051
152435
152670
153041
153054
152749
153414
153183
153835
153918
2008
154075(1)
153648
153925
153761
154325
154316
154480
154646
154559
154875
154622
154626
2009
154236(1)
154521
154143
154450
154800
154730
154538
154319
153786
153822
153833
153091
2010
153454(1)
153704
153964
154528
154216
153653
153748
154073
153918
153709
154041
153613
2011
153250(1)
153302
153392
153420
153700
153409
153358
153674
154004
154057
153937
153887
2012
154395(1)
154871
154707
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
Series Id: LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
67.3
67.3
67.3
67.3
67.1
67.1
66.9
66.9
66.9
66.8
66.9
67.0
2001
67.2
67.1
67.2
66.9
66.7
66.7
66.8
66.5
66.8
66.7
66.7
66.7
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9
2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0
2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4
2007
66.4
66.3
66.2
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0
2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
66.0
65.8
65.8
2009
65.7
65.8
65.6
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.5
65.4
65.1
65.0
65.0
64.6
2010
64.8
64.9
64.9
65.1
64.9
64.6
64.6
64.7
64.6
64.4
64.5
64.3
2011
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.1
64.0
64.1
64.1
64.1
64.0
64.0
2012
63.7
63.9
63.8
Unemployment Level
Series Id: LNS13000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level
Labor force status: Unemployed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
5708
5858
5733
5481
5758
5651
5747
5853
5625
5534
5639
5634
2001
6023
6089
6141
6271
6226
6484
6583
7042
7142
7694
8003
8258
2002
8182
8215
8304
8599
8399
8393
8390
8304
8251
8307
8520
8640
2003
8520
8618
8588
8842
8957
9266
9011
8896
8921
8732
8576
8317
2004
8370
8167
8491
8170
8212
8286
8136
7990
7927
8061
7932
7934
2005
7784
7980
7737
7672
7651
7524
7406
7345
7553
7453
7566
7279
2006
7064
7184
7072
7120
6980
7001
7175
7091
6847
6727
6872
6762
2007
7116
6927
6731
6850
6766
6979
7149
7067
7170
7237
7240
7645
2008
7678
7491
7816
7631
8395
8578
8950
9450
9501
10083
10544
11299
2009
12049
12860
13389
13796
14505
14727
14646
14861
15012
15421
15227
15124
2010
14953
15039
15128
15221
14876
14517
14609
14735
14574
14636
15104
14393
2011
13919
13751
13628
13792
13892
14024
13908
13920
13897
13759
13323
13097
2012
12758
12806
12673
U-3 Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
2001
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.7
2002
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.0
2003
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
2004
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
2005
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
2006
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
2007
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
5.0
2008
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.1
6.5
6.8
7.3
2009
7.8
8.3
8.7
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.8
10.0
9.9
9.9
2010
9.7
9.8
9.8
9.9
9.6
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.8
9.4
2011
9.1
9.0
8.9
9.0
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.0
8.9
8.7
8.5
2012
8.3
8.3
8.2
U-6 Total Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS13327709
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Percent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
7.1
7.2
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.8
7.1
6.9
2001
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.8
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.6
2002
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
2003
10.0
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
2004
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.2
2005
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.7
8.7
8.6
2006
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.0
8.2
8.1
7.9
2007
8.4
8.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.8
2008
9.2
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.7
10.1
10.5
10.8
11.1
11.8
12.7
13.5
2009
14.2
15.1
15.7
15.8
16.4
16.5
16.5
16.7
16.8
17.2
17.1
17.1
2010
16.7
16.9
16.9
17.0
16.6
16.5
16.5
16.6
16.9
16.8
16.9
16.6
2011
16.1
15.9
15.7
15.9
15.8
16.2
16.1
16.2
16.4
16.0
15.6
15.2
2012
15.1
14.9
14.5
Background Articles and Videos
Unemployment Rate Primer
John Williams of Shadow Stats “This is end of the world type stuff”
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-12-0614
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, April 6, 2012
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MARCH 2012
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment rose in manufacturing, food services and drinking
places, and health care, but was down in retail trade.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons (12.7 million) and the unemployment rate
(8.2 percent) were both little changed in March. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men
(7.6 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (25.0 percent), whites
(7.3 percent), blacks (14.0 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed
little or no change in March. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.2 percent,
not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2,and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over)
was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million in March. These individuals
accounted for 42.5 percent of the unemployed. Since April 2010, the number
of long-term unemployed has fallen by 1.4 million. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate (63.8 percent) and the
employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were little changed in March.
(See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell from 8.1 to 7.7 million
over the month. These individuals were working part time because their
hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time
job. (See table A-8.)
In March, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor
force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not
seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force,
wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime
in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
(See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 865,000 discouraged workers
in March, about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining
1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such
as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March. In the prior
3 months, payroll employment had risen by an average of 246,000 per month.
Private-sector employment grew by 121,000 in March, including gains in
manufacturing, food services and drinking places, and health care. Retail
trade lost jobs over the month. Government employment was essentially
unchanged. (See table B-1.)
Manufacturing employment rose by 37,000 in March, with gains in motor
vehicles and parts (+12,000), machinery (+7,000), fabricated metals
(+5,000), and paper manufacturing (+3,000). Factory employment has risen
by 470,000 since a recent low point in January 2010.
Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking
places rose by 37,000 in March and has risen by 563,000 since a recent
low point in February 2010.
In March, health care employment continued to grow (+26,000). Within the
industry, offices of physicians and hospitals each added 8,000 jobs over the
month.
Employment in financial activities was up by 15,000 in March, with most of
the gain occurring in credit intermediation (+11,000).
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up
in March (+31,000). Employment in the industry has grown by 1.4 million
since a recent low point in September 2009. In March, services to buildings
and dwellings added 23,000 jobs. Employment in temporary help services
was about unchanged over the month after increasing by 55,000 in February.
Retail trade employment fell by 34,000 in March. A large job loss in general
merchandise stores (-32,000) and small losses in other retail industries
more than offset gains in health and personal care stores (+6,000) and in
building material and garden supply stores (+5,000).
Employment in the other major private-sector industries, including mining,
construction, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and information,
changed little in March.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged
down by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in March. The manufacturing workweek fell
by 0.3 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours.
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private
nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls rose by 5 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $23.39. Over the past 12 months,
average hourly earnings have increased by 2.1 percent. In March, average
hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees
rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $19.68. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from
+284,000 to +275,000, and the change for February was revised from +227,000
to +240,000.
______________
The Employment Situation for April is scheduled to be released on
Friday, May 4, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
Mythical Green Shoots and the Big Government Lie on Unemployment
Mike Norman Pwns Peter Schiff Again As US Economy Bounces Back
US Unemployment Rate Drops Sharply or does it? (December 02, 2011)
300,000 Give Up Job Search
Weekly Economic Flashback… Is Economic “Recovery” Gaining Momentum?
Behind The U.S. Jobs Report. A ‘Very Long Struggle’ for Work
Montag Discusses Unemployment Data and Extending Payroll Tax Cuts on News 12 – December 4 2011
The Dylan Ratigan Show – As The Unemployment Rate Falls, Have The Unemployed Given Up? 12-2-2011
NewsNation – Unemployment Rate Drops In November 12-2-2011
Andrea Mitchell Reports – 13.3 Million Americans Remain Unemployed 12-2-2011
Gerald Celente: We’re going into an economic 9/11
Decline in unemployment an Obama political ploy?
December 2nd 2011 CNBC Stock Market Squawk Box (November Jobs Report)
cnn – unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent
Employment Level
140,580,000
Series Id: LNS12000000 Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
137778
137612
137783
137299
137092
136873
137071
136241
136846
136392
136238
136047
2002
135701
136438
136177
136126
136539
136415
136413
136705
137302
137008
136521
136426
2003
137417(1)
137482
137434
137633
137544
137790
137474
137549
137609
137984
138424
138411
2004
138472(1)
138542
138453
138680
138852
139174
139556
139573
139487
139732
140231
140125
2005
140245(1)
140385
140654
141254
141609
141714
142026
142434
142401
142548
142499
142752
2006
143150(1)
143457
143741
143761
144089
144353
144202
144625
144815
145314
145534
145970
2007
146033(1)
146066
146334
145610
145901
146058
145886
145670
146231
145937
146584
146272
2008
146407(1)
146183
146143
146173
145925
145725
145479
145167
145056
144778
144068
143324
2009
142201(1)
141687
140822
140720
140292
139978
139794
139409
138791
138393
138590
137960
2010
138511(1)
138698
138952
139382
139353
139092
138991
139267
139378
139084
138909
139206
2011
139323(1)
139573
139864
139674
139779
139334
139296
139627
140025
140302
140580
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Civilian Labor Force
153,883,000
Series Id: LNS11000000 Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status: Civilian labor force
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
143800
143701
143924
143569
143318
143357
143654
143284
143989
144086
144240
144305
2002
143883
144653
144481
144725
144938
144808
144803
145009
145552
145314
145041
145066
2003
145937(1)
146100
146022
146474
146500
147056
146485
146445
146530
146716
147000
146729
2004
146842(1)
146709
146944
146850
147065
147460
147692
147564
147415
147793
148162
148059
2005
148029(1)
148364
148391
148926
149261
149238
149432
149779
149954
150001
150065
150030
2006
150214(1)
150641
150813
150881
151069
151354
151377
151716
151662
152041
152406
152732
2007
153133(1)
152966
153054
152446
152666
153038
153035
152756
153422
153209
153845
153936
2008
154060(1)
153624
153924
153779
154322
154315
154432
154656
154613
154953
154621
154669
2009
154185(1)
154424
154100
154453
154805
154754
154457
154362
153940
154022
153795
153172
2010
153353(1)
153558
153895
154520
154237
153684
153628
154117
154124
153960
153950
153690
2011
153186(1)
153246
153406
153421
153693
153421
153228
153594
154017
154198
153883
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Labor Participation Rate
64.0%
Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
67.2
67.1
67.2
66.9
66.7
66.7
66.8
66.5
66.8
66.7
66.7
66.7
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9
2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0
2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4
2007
66.4
66.3
66.2
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0
2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.8
65.8
2009
65.7
65.7
65.6
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.5
65.4
65.1
65.1
65.0
64.7
2010
64.8
64.8
64.9
65.1
64.9
64.7
64.6
64.7
64.7
64.5
64.5
64.3
2011
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.1
63.9
64.0
64.2
64.2
64.0
Unemployment Level
13,303,000
Series Id: LNS13000000 Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level
Labor force status: Unemployed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
6023
6089
6141
6271
6226
6484
6583
7042
7142
7694
8003
8258
2002
8182
8215
8304
8599
8399
8393
8390
8304
8251
8307
8520
8640
2003
8520
8618
8588
8842
8957
9266
9011
8896
8921
8732
8576
8317
2004
8370
8167
8491
8170
8212
8286
8136
7990
7927
8061
7932
7934
2005
7784
7980
7737
7672
7651
7524
7406
7345
7553
7453
7566
7279
2006
7064
7184
7072
7120
6980
7001
7175
7091
6847
6727
6872
6762
2007
7100
6900
6721
6836
6766
6980
7149
7085
7191
7272
7261
7664
2008
7653
7441
7781
7606
8398
8590
8953
9489
9557
10176
10552
11344
2009
11984
12737
13278
13734
14512
14776
14663
14953
15149
15628
15206
15212
2010
14842
14860
14943
15138
14884
14593
14637
14849
14746
14876
15041
14485
2011
13863
13673
13542
13747
13914
14087
13931
13967
13992
13897
13303
Unemployment Rate U-3
8.6%
Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.7
2002
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.0
2003
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
2004
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
2005
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
2006
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
2007
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
5.0
2008
5.0
4.8
5.1
4.9
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.6
6.8
7.3
2009
7.8
8.2
8.6
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.7
9.8
10.1
9.9
9.9
2010
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.8
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.4
2011
9.0
8.9
8.8
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.0
8.6
Total Unemployment Rate U-6
15.6%
Series Id: LNS13327709 Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Percent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.8
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.6
2002
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
2003
10.0
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
2004
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.2
2005
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.7
8.7
8.6
2006
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.0
8.2
8.1
7.9
2007
8.4
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.8
2008
9.1
8.9
9.0
9.2
9.7
10.1
10.5
10.9
11.2
11.9
12.7
13.6
2009
14.1
15.0
15.6
15.8
16.4
16.6
16.5
16.8
17.0
17.4
17.1
17.2
2010
16.5
16.8
16.8
17.0
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.7
17.1
17.0
17.0
16.7
2011
16.1
15.9
15.7
15.9
15.8
16.2
16.1
16.2
16.5
16.2
15.6
Background Articles and Videos
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-11-1691
until 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, December 2, 2011
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- NOVEMBER 2011
The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and
nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and
hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government
employment continued to trend down.
Household Survey Data
In November, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent.
From April through October, the rate held in a narrow range from 9.0 to 9.2 percent.
The number of unemployed persons, at 13.3 million, was down by 594,000 in November.
The labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed, was down by a
little more than half that amount. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men fell by 0.5
percentage point to 8.3 percent in November. The jobless rate for whites (7.6
percent) also declined, while the rates for adult women (7.8 percent), teenagers
(23.7 percent), blacks (15.5 percent), and Hispanics (11.4 percent) showed little
or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted.
(See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In November, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs
declined by 432,000 to 7.6 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those
jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted
for 43.0 percent of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate declined by0.2 percentage point to
64.0 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little.
(See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred
to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5
million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been
cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,
about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as
unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in
November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because
they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons
marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 120,000 in November, in line with the
average gain for the prior 12 months (+131,000). The private sector added 140,000
jobs, as employment rose in a number of service-providing industries. Government
employment continued to trend down. (See table B-1.)
Employment in retail trade rose by 50,000 in November, with much of the increase
occurring in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+27,000) and in electronics
and appliance stores (+5,000). Since reaching an employment trough in December 2009,
retailers have added an average of 14,000 jobs per month.
Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in November (+22,000).
Within the industry, food services and drinking places added 33,000 jobs. This gain
more than offset a loss of 12,000 jobs in the accommodation industry. In the last
12 months, leisure and hospitality added 253,000 jobs, largely driven by employment
increases in food services and drinking places.
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in November
(+33,000). Modest job gains continued in temporary help services.
Health care employment continued to rise in November (+17,000). Within the industry,
hospitals added 9,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, health care has added an average
of 27,000 jobs per month.
Manufacturing employment changed little over the month and has remained essentially
unchanged since July. In November, fabricated metal products added 8,000 jobs, while
electronic instruments lost 2,000 jobs.
Construction employment showed little movement in November. Employment in the
industry has shown little change, on net, since early 2010.
Government employment continued to trend down in November, with a decline in the U.S.
Postal Service (-5,000). Employment in both state government and local government has
been trending down since the second half of 2008.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at
34.3 hours in November. The manufacturing workweek was down by 0.2 hour to 40.3
hours, offsetting a 0.2 hour gain in the previous month. Factory overtime remained
at 3.2 hours in November. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory
employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours. (See
tables B-2 and B-7.)
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased in
November by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.18. This decline followed a gain of 7
cents in October. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by
1.8 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and
nonsupervisory employees increased by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $19.54. (See
tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from
+158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to
+100,000.
_____________
The Employment Situation for December is scheduled to be released on Friday,
January 6, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).
Economy Creates 120,000 Jobs, Rate Tumbles to 8.6%
By: Jeff Cox
“…The rate fell from the previous month’s 9.0 percent, a move which in part reflected a drop in those looking for jobs. The participation rate dropped to 64 percent, from 64.2 percent in October, representing 315,000 fewer job-seekers.
The actual employment level increased by 278,000. The total amount of those without a job fell to 13.3 million.
The drop in participation rate is significant in that had the labor force remained steady, the jobless rate would have dropped to 8.8 percent, according to Citigroup calculations. If the labor force had followed trend growth, unemployment would be at 8.9 percent.
“Overall, the continued modest employment gains reflect an economy that plods along at an uninspiring pace,” Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “These modest job gains are still not enough to propel economic growth to a sustainable 2 percent-plus growth path.”
The measure some refer to as the “real” unemployment rate, which counts discouraged workers, also took a fall to 15.6 percent from 16.2 percent, its lowest level since March 2009.
However, economists were treating the rate drops with skepticism.
“When the unemployment rate declines, we want to see both employment and participation increase as discouraged workers return to the labor force. Today, we got the former, but not the latter, making the 0.4 percent drop look a bit suspect,” Neil Dutta, US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told clients. “We would not be surprised to see the unemployment rate give back some of its decline in the coming month(s).” …”
Segment 1: 3,500,000 Million Americans Unemployed in March 2011 Still Exceeds Great Depression High of 13,000,000 In March 1933–The Obama Depressions Continues–Bureau of Labor Statistics: 8.8% Official Unemployment Rate (U-3) vs. Gallup Unemployment Rate of 10.0%–Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 216,000–The Government Makes The Depression Worse!–Videos
Segment 2: Obama’s Anti-American, Anti-Capitalist, Anti-Growth, Anti-Jobs, and Anti-Security Energy Policy–Videos
Segment 3: Republican Establishment Will Propose A Ten Year $6,200 Billion Cut In Spending Over Ten Years–The Problem Is It Does Not Balance The Budget For Another Five Years At The Earliest–Tea Party Movement Demands Balanced Budgets Starting In 2012 For The Next Ten Years!–A Jet Plane To Prosperity Not A Path To Prosperity–Videos
Segment 4: Just One More Thing Congressman Ryan: When Does The Republican’s Path To Prosperity Balance The Budget?–The Twelth of Never!–Videos
For additional information and videos on the above segments:
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Series Id: LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.7
2002
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.0
2003
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
2004
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
2005
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
2006
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
2007
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
5.0
2008
5.0
4.8
5.1
4.9
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.6
6.8
7.3
2009
7.8
8.2
8.6
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.7
9.8
10.1
9.9
9.9
2010
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.8
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.4
2011
9.0
8.9
8.8
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.8
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.6
2002
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
2003
10.0
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
2004
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.2
2005
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.7
8.7
8.6
2006
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.0
8.2
8.1
7.9
2007
8.4
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.8
2008
9.1
8.9
9.0
9.2
9.7
10.1
10.5
10.9
11.2
11.9
12.7
13.6
2009
14.1
15.0
15.6
15.8
16.4
16.6
16.5
16.8
17.0
17.4
17.1
17.2
2010
16.5
16.8
16.8
17.0
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.7
17.1
17.0
17.0
16.7
2011
16.1
15.9
15.7
Series Id: LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
67.2
67.1
67.2
66.9
66.7
66.7
66.8
66.5
66.8
66.7
66.7
66.7
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9
2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0
2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4
2007
66.4
66.3
66.2
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0
2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.8
65.8
2009
65.7
65.7
65.6
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.5
65.4
65.1
65.1
65.0
64.7
2010
64.8
64.8
64.9
65.1
64.9
64.7
64.6
64.7
64.7
64.5
64.5
64.3
2011
64.2
64.2
64.2
Series Id: LNS12300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio
Labor force status: Employment-population ratio
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Creating the Next Great Depression | Thomas J. DiLorenzo
Uncommon Knowledge: The Great Depression with Amity Shlaes
*UPDATE* Why You’ve Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920 Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
U.S. Unemployment rate from 1910-1960, with the years of the Great Depression (1929-1939) highlighted
:.
Data for 1910-1930 from Christina Romer (1986), “Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data”, The Journal of Political Economy, 94(1): 1-37. Data for 1930-1940 from Robert M. Coen (1973). “Labor Force and Unemployment in the 1920′s and 1930′s: A Re-Examination Based on Postwar Experience”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(1): 46-55. Data for 1940-1960 from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, 1940 to date ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/aat1.txt, retrieved March 6, 2009.
Background Articles and Videos
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — MARCH 2011
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 8.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health
care, leisure and hospitality, and mining. Employment in manufacturing continued
to trend up.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons (13.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.8
percent) changed little in March. The labor force also was little changed over
the month. Since November 2010, the jobless rate has declined by 1.0 percentage
point. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (8.6 percent),
adult women (7.7 percent), teenagers (24.5 percent), whites (7.9 percent), blacks
(15.5 percent), and Hispanics (11.3 percent) showed little change in March. The
jobless rate for Asians was 7.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1,
A-2, and A-3.)
The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, at 8.2 million,
was little changed in March but has fallen by 1.3 million since November 2010.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 6.1
million in March; their share of the unemployed increased from 43.9 to 45.5 percent
over the month. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)
In March, the civilian labor force participation rate held at 64.2 percent, and the
employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred
to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in March, at 8.4 million.
These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or
because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In March, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, up
slightly from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as
unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 921,000 discouraged workers in March,
little changed from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they
believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons
marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March. Job gains occurred
in several service-providing industries and in mining, and manufacturing employment
continued to trend up. Since a recent low in February 2010, total payroll employment
has grown by 1.5 million. (See table B-1.)
In March, employment in the service-providing sector continued to expand, led
by a gain of 78,000 in professional and business services. Most of the gain
occurred in temporary help services (+29,000) and in professional and technical
services (+35,000).
Health care employment continued to increase in March (+37,000). Over the last
12 months, health care has added 283,000 jobs, or an average of 24,000 jobs per
month.
Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by 37,000 over the month, with more than
two-thirds of the increase in food services and drinking places (+27,000).
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in March (+17,000). Job gains were
concentrated in two durable goods industries–fabricated metal products (+8,000)
and machinery (+5,000). Employment in durable goods manufacturing has risen by
243,000 since its most recent low in December 2009.
In March, employment in mining increased by 14,000, with much of the gain occurring
in support activities for mining (+9,000).
Employment in local government continued to trend down over the month. Local government
has lost 416,000 jobs since an employment peak in September 2008.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at
34.3 hours in March. The manufacturing workweek for all employees edged down by 0.1
hour to 40.5 hours, while factory overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average
workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls
increased by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were
unchanged at $22.87. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased
by 1.7 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory
employees edged down by 2 cents over the month to $19.30. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +63,000
to +68,000, and the change for February was revised from +192,000 to +194,000.
____________
The Employment Situation for April is scheduled to be released on Friday, May 6, 2011,
at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
In 1965, the British economy faced a two-pronged assault: weak growth coupled with rapidly rising consumer prices. A British Parliamentarian described this paradox by mashing together “stagnant” and “inflation” to come up with “stagflation”. The term immediately became a fixture in the financial lexicon and has been striking fear in the hearts of government officials ever since.
Stagflation is the most terrifying of economic circumstances because it is the most difficult condition to combat. On the one hand you have a slowing economy which calls for an easing of monetary policy to encourage spending. On the other hand, you have inflation spurred on by rapidly rising prices. To deal with inflation, the standard approach is to tighten monetary policy by raising rates to discourage spending. This inherent contradiction makes it difficult to implement an effective policy against stagflation.
“We now have the worst of both worlds – not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other. We have sort of ‘stagflation’ situation.”
British Member of Parliament
Iain MacLeod
How is it possible for an economy to be in such a conflicting state? Certainly this is not a common occurrence, but given the right conditions and an event that causes an extraordinary shock to the economy, both conditions may exist simultaneously. Some analysts suggest we are close to experiencing those conditions now. …”
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February
“…Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February — up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010. …”
US unemployment rate drops to 8.9% – Press TV News
Peter Schiff Video Blog – March 4, 2011
Payrolls Rose 192,000; Jobless Rate at 8.9% in February
Silvia Says Unemployment, Inflation Will Challenge Fed
Maki Sees U.S. Unemployment Rate Below 8.5% by Year End
Pre-Market Movers: March 4th, 2011
Gross Says Inflation Matters More Than Bernanke Suggests
The progressive radical socialist economic policies of the Obama Administration and the Democratic Party have utterly failed in the creation of new jobs and wealth resulting in the continuation of the Great Recession soon to become the Obama Depression.
Comparing the first full month that Obama was President two years latter paints a picture of the big fail.
In February 2009 the employment level in the United States was approximately 141.6 million.
In February 2011 the employment level in the United States was approximately 139.5 million.
Two years of the Obama Administration has resulted in the decline of the employment level of approximately 1.6 million.
In February 2009 the civilian level force in the United States was approximately 154.4 million.
In February 2011 the employment level in the United States was approximately 153.2 million.
Two years of the Obama Administration has resulted in the decline of the civilian labor force of approximately 1.6 million.
In February 2009 the labor force participation rate in the United States was approximately 65.7%.
In February 2011 the labor force participation rate in the United States was approximately 64.2%
Two years of the Obama Administration has resulted in the decline of the labor force participation rate of 1.5%.
In February 2009 the unemployment level in the United States was approximately 12.7 million.
In February 2011 the unemployment level in the United States was approximately 13.6 million.
Two years of the Obama Administration has resulted in the increase of the unemployment level of approximately .9 million.
In February 2009 the official unemployment rate (U-3) in the United States was approximately 8.2%.
In February 2011 the official unemployment rate (U-3) in the United States was approximately 8.9%.
Two years of the Obama Administration has resulted in the increase of the official unemployment rate (U-3) of approximately .7%.
In February 2009 the total unemployment rate (U-6) in the United States was approximately 15.0%.
In February 2011 the total unemployment rate (U-6) in the United States was approximately 15.9%.
Two years of the Obama Administration has resulted in the increase of the total unemployment rate (U-6) of approximately .7%.
The actual unemployment rate which would include long-term discourage workers that are excluded by the BLS unemployment U-6 series is now over 20% owith over 30 million Americans that are either unemployed or underemployed. The Great Recession is fast become the Obama Depression and no amount of political manipulation of the unemployment statistics will persuade the American people otherwise.
“…The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment. …”
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Series Id: LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment Level Labor force status: Employed Age: 16 years and over Type of data: Number in thousands
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
137778
137612
137783
137299
137092
136873
137071
136241
136846
136392
136238
136047
2002
135701
136438
136177
136126
136539
136415
136413
136705
137302
137008
136521
136426
2003
137417(1)
137482
137434
137633
137544
137790
137474
137549
137609
137984
138424
138411
2004
138472(1)
138542
138453
138680
138852
139174
139556
139573
139487
139732
140231
140125
2005
140245(1)
140385
140654
141254
141609
141714
142026
142434
142401
142548
142499
142752
2006
143150(1)
143457
143741
143761
144089
144353
144202
144625
144815
145314
145534
145970
2007
146033(1)
146066
146334
145610
145901
146058
145886
145670
146231
145937
146584
146272
2008
146407(1)
146183
146143
146173
145925
145725
145479
145167
145056
144778
144068
143324
2009
142201(1)
141687
140822
140720
140292
139978
139794
139409
138791
138393
138590
137960
2010
138511(1)
138698
138952
139382
139353
139092
138991
139267
139378
139084
138909
139206
2011
139323(1)
139573
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Civilian Labor Force
Series Id: LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level Labor force status: Civilian labor force Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
143800
143701
143924
143569
143318
143357
143654
143284
143989
144086
144240
144305
2002
143883
144653
144481
144725
144938
144808
144803
145009
145552
145314
145041
145066
2003
145937(1)
146100
146022
146474
146500
147056
146485
146445
146530
146716
147000
146729
2004
146842(1)
146709
146944
146850
147065
147460
147692
147564
147415
147793
148162
148059
2005
148029(1)
148364
148391
148926
149261
149238
149432
149779
149954
150001
150065
150030
2006
150214(1)
150641
150813
150881
151069
151354
151377
151716
151662
152041
152406
152732
2007
153133(1)
152966
153054
152446
152666
153038
153035
152756
153422
153209
153845
153936
2008
154060(1)
153624
153924
153779
154322
154315
154432
154656
154613
154953
154621
154669
2009
154185(1)
154424
154100
154453
154805
154754
154457
154362
153940
154022
153795
153172
2010
153353(1)
153558
153895
154520
154237
153684
153628
154117
154124
153960
153950
153690
2011
153186(1)
153246
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Unemployment Level (U-3)
Series Id: LNS13000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level
Labor force status: Unemployed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
6023
6089
6141
6271
6226
6484
6583
7042
7142
7694
8003
8258
2002
8182
8215
8304
8599
8399
8393
8390
8304
8251
8307
8520
8640
2003
8520
8618
8588
8842
8957
9266
9011
8896
8921
8732
8576
8317
2004
8370
8167
8491
8170
8212
8286
8136
7990
7927
8061
7932
7934
2005
7784
7980
7737
7672
7651
7524
7406
7345
7553
7453
7566
7279
2006
7064
7184
7072
7120
6980
7001
7175
7091
6847
6727
6872
6762
2007
7100
6900
6721
6836
6766
6980
7149
7085
7191
7272
7261
7664
2008
7653
7441
7781
7606
8398
8590
8953
9489
9557
10176
10552
11344
2009
11984
12737
13278
13734
14512
14776
14663
14953
15149
15628
15206
15212
2010
14842
14860
14943
15138
14884
14593
14637
14849
14746
14876
15041
14485
2011
13863
13673
Labor Force Participation Rate
Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
67.2
67.1
67.2
66.9
66.7
66.7
66.8
66.5
66.8
66.7
66.7
66.7
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9
2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0
2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4
2007
66.4
66.3
66.2
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0
2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.8
65.8
2009
65.7
65.7
65.6
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.5
65.4
65.1
65.1
65.0
64.7
2010
64.8
64.8
64.9
65.1
64.9
64.7
64.6
64.7
64.7
64.5
64.5
64.3
2011
64.2
64.2
Unemployment Level
Series Id: LNS13000000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level Labor force status: Unemployed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
6023
6089
6141
6271
6226
6484
6583
7042
7142
7694
8003
8258
2002
8182
8215
8304
8599
8399
8393
8390
8304
8251
8307
8520
8640
2003
8520
8618
8588
8842
8957
9266
9011
8896
8921
8732
8576
8317
2004
8370
8167
8491
8170
8212
8286
8136
7990
7927
8061
7932
7934
2005
7784
7980
7737
7672
7651
7524
7406
7345
7553
7453
7566
7279
2006
7064
7184
7072
7120
6980
7001
7175
7091
6847
6727
6872
6762
2007
7100
6900
6721
6836
6766
6980
7149
7085
7191
7272
7261
7664
2008
7653
7441
7781
7606
8398
8590
8953
9489
9557
10176
10552
11344
2009
11984
12737
13278
13734
14512
14776
14663
14953
15149
15628
15206
15212
2010
14842
14860
14943
15138
14884
14593
14637
14849
14746
14876
15041
14485
2011
13863
13673
Unemployment Rate (U-6)
Series Id: LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2001
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.8
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.6
2002
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
2003
10.0
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
2004
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.2
2005
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.7
8.7
8.6
2006
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.0
8.2
8.1
7.9
2007
8.4
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.8
2008
9.1
8.9
9.0
9.2
9.7
10.1
10.5
10.9
11.2
11.9
12.7
13.6
2009
14.1
15.0
15.6
15.8
16.4
16.6
16.5
16.8
17.0
17.4
17.1
17.2
2010
16.5
16.8
16.8
17.0
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.7
17.1
17.0
17.0
16.7
2011
16.1
15.9
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-11-0271 until 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, March 4, 2011 Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2011 Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 192,000 in February, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 8.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics re- ported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing. Household Survey Data The number of unemployed persons (13.7 million) and the unemployment rate (8.9 percent) changed little in February. The labor force was about unchanged over the month. The jobless rate was down by 0.9 percentage point since November 2010. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (8.7 percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (23.9 percent), whites (8.0 percent), blacks (15.3 percent), and Hispanics (11.6 percent) showed little or no change in February. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, at 8.3 million, continued to trend down in February and has fallen by 1.2 million over the past 12 months. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 6.0 million and accounted for 43.9 percent of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.) Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.2 percent, and the employ- ment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, were unchanged in February. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 8.3 million in February. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.) In February, 2.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, up
from 2.5 million a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as
unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in February,
a decrease of 184,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no
jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in February had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the sur- vey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.) Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in February. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, and several service-providing industries. Since a recent low in February 2010, total payroll employment has grown by 1.3 million, or an average of 106,000 per month. (See table B-1.) Manufacturing employment rose by 33,000 in February. Almost all of the gain occurred in durable goods industries, including machinery (+9,000) and fabricated metal pro- ducts (+7,000). Manufacturing has added 195,000 jobs since its most recent trough in December 2009; durable goods manufacturing added 233,000 jobs during this period. Construction employment grew by 33,000 in February, following a decline of 22,000 in January that may have reflected severe winter weather. Within construction, specialty trade contractors accounted for the bulk of the February job gain (+28,000). Employment in the service-providing sector continued to expand in February, led by a gain of 47,000 in professional and business services. Employment services added 29,000 jobs, and employment rose by 7,000 in management and technical consulting. Within employment services, the number of jobs in temporary help services edged up over the month. Health care employment continued to increase in February (+34,000). Over the prior 12 months, health care had added 260,000 jobs, or an average of 22,000 jobs per month. Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 22,000 in February, with half of that gain in truck transportation (+11,000). Employment in both state and local government edged down over the month. Local govern- ment has lost 377,000 jobs since its peak in September 2008. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.2 hours in February. The manufacturing workweek for all employees rose by 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours, while factory overtime rose by 0.2 hour to 3.3 hours. The average work- week for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 1 cent to $22.87. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.7 percent. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector pro- duction and nonsupervisory employees were unchanged at $19.33. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised from +121,000 to +152,000, and the change for January was revised from +36,000 to +63,000. ___________ The Employment Situation for March is scheduled to be released on Friday, April 1, 2011, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
If you are one of the 25 million Americans seeking a full-time job, the August 2010 unemployment report from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor statistics was discouraging.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in August, 2010, the official unemployment rate (U-3) rose from 9.5% in July to 9.6 % in August with 14.9 million Americans unemployed.
Real Total Unemployment Rate (U-6)
The real total unemployment rate (U-6) also rose from 16.5% in July to 16.7% in August with 25.7 million Americans seeking full-time employment.
If you are young, black or Hispanic, the unemployment rate is considerably high.
The unemployment rate for young workers ages 16 through 19 years rose from 26.1% in July to 26.3% in August.
For black or African Americans the unemployment rate also rose from 15.6% in July to 16.3 in August.
For Hispanics the unemployment rate decreased from 12.1% in July to 12.0% in August.
To put these rate of unemployment in historical perspective the graph below shows the U-3 and U-6 unemployment rates from 1900 through 2009:
Source: Historical Unemployment In Relation Today By N. Andrews
The Department of Labor, Bureau or Labor Statistics, publishes several unemployment rates series of data including:
U-1: Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-2: Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
U-3: Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
U-4: Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
U-5: Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
U-6: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Marginally attached workers: In the United States, persons not in the labor force who want and are available for a job and who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but who are not currently looking, are designated as “marginally attached to the labor force.”
The marginally attached are divided into those not currently looking because they believe their search would be futile—so-called “discouraged workers”—and those not currently looking for other reasons such as family responsibilities, ill health, or lack of transportation.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Each month there are new entrants into the labor market as students either graduate from high school and college or drop-out and look for jobs for the first time. The United States needs to add approximately 150,000 jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate constant. There are currently approximately 154 million individuals in the civilian labor force. Each month to reduce the unemployment rate by .1%, a total of about 300,000 new jobs needs to be created.
In August the employment level increased from 138,960,000 in July to 139,250 or an increase of 290,000. When President Obama took office in January 2009 the employment level was 142,221,000. The so-called stimulus bill was suppose to limit the unemployment rate to a maximum of 8%. Instead the unemployment rate hit 10.1% in October 2009 and is expected to go over 10% in the coming months and be over 9% for two years or more.The stimulus package has failed to create jobs. Proposing another stimulus package would only make matters worse and prolong the recession.
Both the Bush and Obama expansion of the size and scope of the Federal Government and the passage of so-called government spending stimulus packages have resulted in less private investment and job creation by businesses. Business owners will not expand or grow their businesses when they lack confidence in the economic policies of the Federal Government. Economists call this regime uncertainty. This happened during the Great Depression that began with Hoover in 1930 and continued with Roosevelt from 1933 and through 1945. During World War II the unemployment level did fall dramatically as million of men were drafted to fight the war and men and women were employed to produce the weapons and munitions of war. However, prosperity did not return until 1946 when Federal Government spending was dramatically cut.
Government stimulus spending (Keynesian Economics) to increase economic growth and jobs did not work for Presidents Hoover, Roosevelt, Ford, Bush, and Obama. Keynesian economics is insanity economics–doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Instead, President Obama is seriously considering raising taxes by letting the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010, proposing another stimulus package and a cap-and-trade energy tax or alternatively a new additional tax, the value added tax.If implemeneeded the economic consequences will be another depression–the Obama Depression. No mention is ever made of cutting the size, scope and burden of the Federal Government, which is the real source of the problem. Government interventionism in the form of fiscal and monetary policies caused both the financial and economic crisis we are currently in. More of the same economic policies is insanity economics. The Keynesian economists are running the asylum.
If you are a high school or college student stay in school and complete your education. Go to your local college career services office to obtain assistance in writing cover letters and resumes and finding employment. Do not be discouraged if it takes longer to find a job. Just keep sending out those resumes and networking and sooner or latter you will find a job.
“Permanent mass unemployment destroys the moral foundations of the social order. The young people, who, having finished their training for work, are forced to remain idle, are the ferment out of which the most radical political movements are formed. In their ranks the soldiers of the coming revolutions are recruited.”
~Ludwig von Mises, Socialism, page 440
Ron Paul EXPOSES the Real GDP and Unemployment Numbers
Keynesian Economics Is Wrong: Bigger Gov’t Is Not Stimulus
Stimulus II: A Sequel America Can’t Afford
Dan Mitchell on whether Obama’s economic team should resign
Dan Mitchell on Entitlement Spending
Dan Mitchell on Taxing the Rich
Why You’ve Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920 | Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
Keynesian Predictions vs. American History | Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
Smashing Myths and Restoring Sound Money | Thomas E. Woods, Jr.
Best Books Criticizing Keynesian Economics | David Gordon
Background Articles and Videos
Types of Unemployment and the Natural Rate of Unemployment- Key Macro Concepts
(Macro) Episode 18: Unemployment
(Macro) Episode 19: Unemployment
Series Id: LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
136559(1)
136598
136701
137270
136630
136940
136531
136662
136893
137088
137322
137614
2001
137778
137612
137783
137299
137092
136873
137071
136241
136846
136392
136238
136047
2002
135701
136438
136177
136126
136539
136415
136413
136705
137302
137008
136521
136426
2003
137417(1)
137482
137434
137633
137544
137790
137474
137549
137609
137984
138424
138411
2004
138472(1)
138542
138453
138680
138852
139174
139556
139573
139487
139732
140231
140125
2005
140245(1)
140385
140654
141254
141609
141714
142026
142434
142401
142548
142499
142752
2006
143142(1)
143444
143765
143794
144108
144370
144229
144631
144797
145292
145477
145914
2007
146032(1)
146043
146368
145686
145952
146079
145926
145685
146193
145885
146483
146173
2008
146421(1)
146165
146173
146306
146023
145768
145515
145187
145021
144677
143907
143188
2009
142221(1)
141687
140854
140902
140438
140038
139817
139433
138768
138242
138381
137792
2010
138333(1)
138641
138905
139455
139420
139119
138960
139250
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Civilian Labor Force Level
Series Id: LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status: Civilian labor force
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
142267(1)
142456
142434
142751
142388
142591
142278
142514
142518
142622
142962
143248
2001
143800
143701
143924
143569
143318
143357
143654
143284
143989
144086
144240
144305
2002
143883
144653
144481
144725
144938
144808
144803
145009
145552
145314
145041
145066
2003
145937(1)
146100
146022
146474
146500
147056
146485
146445
146530
146716
147000
146729
2004
146842(1)
146709
146944
146850
147065
147460
147692
147564
147415
147793
148162
148059
2005
148029(1)
148364
148391
148926
149261
149238
149432
149779
149954
150001
150065
150030
2006
150201(1)
150629
150839
150915
151085
151368
151383
151729
151650
152020
152360
152698
2007
153117(1)
152941
153093
152531
152717
153045
153039
152781
153393
153158
153767
153869
2008
154048(1)
153600
153966
153936
154420
154327
154410
154696
154590
154849
154524
154587
2009
154140(1)
154401
154164
154718
154956
154759
154351
154426
153927
153854
153720
153059
2010
153170(1)
153512
153910
154715
154393
153741
153560
154110
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.
Labor Force Participation Rate
Series Id: LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
67.3
67.3
67.3
67.3
67.1
67.1
66.9
66.9
66.9
66.8
66.9
67.0
2001
67.2
67.1
67.2
66.9
66.7
66.7
66.8
66.5
66.8
66.7
66.7
66.7
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9
2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0
2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4
2007
66.4
66.3
66.3
66.0
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0
2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
66.0
66.2
66.1
66.0
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.8
65.8
2009
65.7
65.7
65.6
65.8
65.8
65.7
65.4
65.4
65.1
65.0
64.9
64.6
2010
64.7
64.8
64.9
65.2
65.0
64.7
64.6
64.7
Unemployment Level
Series Id: LNS13000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Level
Labor force status: Unemployed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
5708
5858
5733
5481
5758
5651
5747
5853
5625
5534
5639
5634
2001
6023
6089
6141
6271
6226
6484
6583
7042
7142
7694
8003
8258
2002
8182
8215
8304
8599
8399
8393
8390
8304
8251
8307
8520
8640
2003
8520
8618
8588
8842
8957
9266
9011
8896
8921
8732
8576
8317
2004
8370
8167
8491
8170
8212
8286
8136
7990
7927
8061
7932
7934
2005
7784
7980
7737
7672
7651
7524
7406
7345
7553
7453
7566
7279
2006
7059
7185
7075
7122
6977
6998
7154
7097
6853
6728
6883
6784
2007
7085
6898
6725
6845
6765
6966
7113
7096
7200
7273
7284
7696
2008
7628
7435
7793
7631
8397
8560
8895
9509
9569
10172
10617
11400
2009
11919
12714
13310
13816
14518
14721
14534
14993
15159
15612
15340
15267
2010
14837
14871
15005
15260
14973
14623
14599
14860
Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
2001
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.7
2002
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.0
2003
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
2004
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
2005
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
2006
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
2007
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
5.0
2008
5.0
4.8
5.1
5.0
5.4
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.6
6.9
7.4
2009
7.7
8.2
8.6
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.8
10.1
10.0
10.0
2010
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.9
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
Total Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS13327709
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Percent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
7.1
7.2
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.8
7.1
6.9
2001
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.8
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.6
2002
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
2003
10.0
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
2004
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.2
2005
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.9
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.7
8.7
8.6
2006
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.0
8.2
8.1
8.0
2007
8.3
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.8
2008
9.1
8.9
9.0
9.2
9.7
10.0
10.5
10.9
11.2
11.9
12.8
13.7
2009
14.0
15.0
15.6
15.8
16.4
16.5
16.4
16.8
17.0
17.4
17.2
17.3
2010
16.5
16.8
16.9
17.1
16.6
16.5
16.5
16.7
16--19 years olds Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS14000012
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate - 16-19 yrs.
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 to 19 years
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
12.7
13.8
13.3
12.6
12.8
12.3
13.4
14.0
13.0
12.8
13.0
13.2
2001
13.8
13.7
13.8
13.9
13.4
14.2
14.4
15.6
15.2
16.0
15.9
17.0
2002
16.5
16.0
16.6
16.7
16.6
16.7
16.8
17.0
16.3
15.1
17.1
16.9
2003
17.2
17.2
17.8
17.7
17.9
19.0
18.2
16.6
17.6
17.2
15.7
16.2
2004
17.0
16.5
16.8
16.6
17.1
17.0
17.8
16.7
16.6
17.4
16.4
17.6
2005
16.2
17.5
17.1
17.8
17.8
16.3
16.1
16.1
15.5
16.1
17.0
14.9
2006
15.2
15.3
16.1
14.6
14.0
15.7
15.9
16.1
16.3
15.2
14.9
14.7
2007
14.8
14.9
14.9
15.6
15.9
16.2
15.3
16.0
16.0
15.5
16.2
16.9
2008
17.8
16.5
16.0
15.6
18.9
19.0
20.8
18.9
19.3
20.3
20.3
20.8
2009
20.9
21.8
22.0
21.8
23.2
24.3
24.5
25.7
26.1
27.6
26.8
27.1
2010
26.4
25.0
26.1
25.4
26.4
25.7
26.1
26.3
Black or African American Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS14000006
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate - Black or African American
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Race: Black or African American
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
8.2
8.1
7.4
7.0
7.7
7.8
7.7
7.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.4
2001
8.2
7.7
8.3
8.0
7.9
8.3
8.0
9.1
8.9
9.5
9.8
10.1
2002
10.0
9.9
10.5
10.7
10.2
10.5
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.8
10.7
11.3
2003
10.5
10.7
10.3
10.9
10.9
11.5
10.9
10.9
11.1
11.4
10.2
10.1
2004
10.4
9.7
10.3
9.8
10.1
10.2
11.0
10.5
10.3
10.8
10.7
10.7
2005
10.6
10.9
10.5
10.3
10.1
10.2
9.2
9.7
9.4
9.1
10.6
9.2
2006
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.4
8.7
8.8
9.5
8.8
9.0
8.5
8.6
8.3
2007
8.0
8.0
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.4
8.0
7.7
8.1
8.5
8.5
9.0
2008
9.2
8.3
9.1
8.6
9.6
9.4
9.9
10.8
11.4
11.3
11.5
12.1
2009
12.8
13.5
13.5
15.0
15.0
14.8
14.7
15.2
15.5
15.7
15.6
16.2
2010
16.5
15.8
16.5
16.5
15.5
15.4
15.6
16.3
Hispanic or Latino Unemployment Rate
Series Id: LNS14000009
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate - Hispanic or Latino
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Ethnic origin: Hispanic or Latino
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2000
5.6
5.7
6.1
5.5
5.8
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.1
6.0
5.7
2001
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.6
6.2
6.5
6.7
7.1
7.3
7.7
2002
7.8
7.0
7.5
8.0
7.1
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.4
7.9
7.8
7.9
2003
7.9
7.6
7.8
7.6
8.1
8.4
8.1
7.7
7.3
7.4
7.5
6.6
2004
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.1
7.0
6.6
6.9
6.8
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.5
2005
6.2
6.4
5.8
6.4
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.9
6.2
6.1
2006
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.3
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.5
4.7
5.1
5.0
2007
5.7
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.8
5.6
5.9
5.5
5.8
5.6
5.8
6.3
2008
6.4
6.2
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.7
7.5
8.0
8.0
8.9
8.8
9.4
2009
9.9
11.0
11.6
11.4
12.7
12.3
12.4
13.0
12.7
13.1
12.7
12.9
2010
12.6
12.4
12.6
12.5
12.4
12.4
12.1
12.0
The US Unemployment Rate
January 1948 to July 2010
Gary Martin
Gary Martin is an economist in the Division of International Labor Comparisons, Bureau of Labor Statistics. E-mail: ILChelp@bls.gov
"...A relatively high unemployment rate for young people has been a persistent problem in industrialized countries
in recent decades; still, the number of youths who are unemployed has been falling with declining youth
populations and more years spent in education. ..."
"...Youth unemployment rates are relatively higher for a number of reasons.7
First, young people are among the most vulnerable during an economic downturn when workers are being laid off and there are hiring slowdowns or freezes. Youths typically have the least seniority, the least work experience, and the least amount of company training invested in them, and they are more likely to be working on a short-term contract.8 They are, therefore, the most likely to be let go. Indeed, even if, on the one hand, there were no layoffs at all, but only a general hiring freeze, unemployment among young people would still grow as they attempted to move from school into the labor force upon completing their education; and if, on the other hand, employers were forced by economic conditions simply to be more discriminating in their hiring, those with no experience or with very little experience would be the least likely to be hired, and these, too, are most likely to be the young. Numerous studies have shown that youth unemployment rates are more sensitive to the business cycle than are adult unemployment rates.9
Second, whatever the state of the economy, young people simply have less experience in looking for work. Lack of experience at work is counteracted to a degree by the willingness and ability of youths to work for less money, but lack of experience in the process of finding a job is not.
Third, young people, generally with fewer resources than older workers and a stronger financial attachment to family, tend to be less mobile. Consequently, they are somewhat less able or willing to move to places where more jobs might be available. This is especially true for those in the 15- to 19-year-old category, and in countries where attachment to home is particularly strong, the more important that factor would be.
Fourth, young people, with fewer financial obligations and often with family support, can typically afford to take immediate employment less seriously—especially as family sizes have shrunk and the pressure to get a job to help support the family has subsided. The younger the prospective workers, the less serious they tend to be about paid work. If they are students, the jobs they are likely to get, or to lose, are typically not full-time, career-track jobs, and they usually pay very little. Young people sacrifice less by passing up such jobs than do older people, whose search for employment is typically for career-type jobs. Whether the jobs are career track jobs or not, young people with financial support from parents can usually afford to wait longer for just the right job to come along. Thus, in this instance, a higher rate of unemployment actually may reflect economic strength, rather than economic weakness, for youths.10..."
The Road Ahead: Unemployment, Poverty and the Recession
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-10-1212
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, September 3, 2010
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- AUGUST 2010
Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unem-
ployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary
workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector
payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000).
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate
(9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the
jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (9.8 per-
cent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (26.3 percent), whites (8.7 per-
cent), blacks (16.3 percent), and Hispanics (12.0 percent) showed little
change in August. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.2 percent, not season-
ally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) de-
clined by 323,000 over the month to 6.2 million. In August, 42.0 percent of
unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-12.)
In August, the civilian labor force participation rate (64.7 percent) and
the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were essentially unchanged.
(See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes re-
ferred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 331,000 over the
month to 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their
hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
(See table A-8.)
About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in
August, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally ad-
justed.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were avail-
able for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They
were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the
4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in
August, an increase of 352,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not season-
ally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work
because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million
persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the
4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities.
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-54,000) in August. Govern-
ment employment fell by 121,000, reflecting the departure of 114,000 temporary
Census 2010 workers from federal government payrolls. Total private employment
continued to trend up modestly over the month (+67,000). Since its most recent
low in December 2009, private-sector employment has risen by 763,000. (See
table B-1.)
Employment in health care increased by 28,000 in August, with the largest gains
occurring in ambulatory health care services (+17,000) and hospitals (+9,000).
Thus far in 2010, the health care industry has added an average of 20,000 jobs
per month, about in line with the average monthly job growth in 2009.
Mining employment rose by 8,000 in August. Since a recent low in October 2009,
employment in the industry has increased by 72,000. Support activities for mining
has accounted for about three-fourths of the gain.
Manufacturing employment declined by 27,000 over the month. A decline in motor
vehicles and parts (-22,000) offset a gain of similar magnitude in July as the
industry departed somewhat from its usual layoff and recall pattern for annual
retooling.
Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services
was up by 17,000. This industry has added 392,000 jobs since a recent employment
low in September 2009.
Construction employment was up (+19,000) in August. This change partially re-
flected the return to payrolls of 10,000 workers who were on strike in July.
Employment in retail trade was about unchanged over the month. A job gain among
motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000) was essentially offset by losses in
building materials and garden supply stores (-6,000).
Employment in other private-sector industries, including wholesale trade, trans-
portation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and leisure and
hospitality, showed little change in August.
Over the month, government employment fell by 121,000, largely reflecting the
loss of 114,000 temporary workers hired for Census 2010. The number of tempor-
ary Census 2010 workers peaked in May at 564,000 but has declined to 82,000 in
August.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged
over the month at 34.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees in-
creased by 0.1 hour to 40.2 hours, and factory overtime was up by 0.1 hour. The
average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm
payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased
by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $22.66 in August. Over the past 12 months, aver-
age hourly earnings have increased by 1.7 percent. In August, average hourly
earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by
3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $19.08. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from -221,000
to -175,000, and the change for July was revised from -131,000 to -54,000.
___________
The Employment Situation for September is scheduled to be released on Friday,
October 8, 2010, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
The US Unemployment Rate - 1948 to 2009
This context highlights the importance of the 1920–1921 depression. Here the government and Fed did the exact opposite of what the experts now recommend. We have just about the closest thing to a controlled experiment in macroeconomics that one could desire. To repeat, it’s not that the government boosted the budget at a slower rate, or that the Fed provided a tad less liquidity. On the contrary, the government slashed its budget tremendously, and the Fed hiked rates to record highs. We thus have a fairly clear-cut experiment to test the efficacy of the Keynesian and monetarist remedies.
At the conclusion of World War I, U.S. officials found themselves in a bleak position. The federal debt had exploded because of wartime expenditures, and annual consumer price inflation rates had jumped well above 20 percent by the end of the war.
To restore fiscal and price sanity, the authorities implemented what today strikes us as incredibly “merciless” policies. From FY 1919 to 1920, federal spending was slashed from $18.5 billion to $6.4 billion—a 65 percent reduction in one year. The budget was pushed down the next two years as well, to $3.3 billion in FY 1922.
On the monetary side, the New York Fed raised its discount rate to a record high 7 percent by June 1920. Now the reader might think that this nominal rate was actually “looser” than the 1.5 percent discount rate charged in 1931 because of the changes in inflation rates. But on the contrary, the price deflation of the 1920–1921 depression was more severe. From its peak in June 1920 the Consumer Price Index fell 15.8 percent over the next 12 months. In contrast, year-over-year price deflation never even reached 11 percent at any point during the Great Depression. Whether we look at nominal interest rates or “real” (inflation-adjusted) interest rates, the Fed was very “tight” during the 1920–1921 depression and very “loose” during the onset of the Great Depression.
Now some modern economists will point out that our story leaves out an important element. Even though the Fed slashed its discount rate to record lows during the onset of the Great Depression, the total stock of money held by the public collapsed by roughly a third from 1929 to 1933. This is why Milton Friedman blamed the Fed for not doing enough to avert the Great Depression. By flooding the banking system with newly created reserves (part of the “monetary base”), the Fed could have offset the massive cash withdrawals of the panicked public and kept the overall money stock constant.
But even this nuanced argument fails to demonstrate why the 1929–1933 downturn should have been more severe than the 1920–1921 depression. The collapse in the monetary base (directly controlled by the Fed) during 1920–1921 was the largest in U.S. history, and it dwarfed the fall during the early Hoover years. So we hit the same problem: The standard monetarist explanation for the Great Depression applies all the more so to the 1920–1921 depression.
The Results
If the Keynesians are right about the Great Depression, then the depression of 1920–1921 should have been far worse. The same holds for the monetarists; things should have been awful in the 1920s if their theory of the 1930s is correct.
To be sure, the 1920–1921 depression was painful. The unemployment rate peaked at 11.7 percent in 1921. But it had dropped to 6.7 percent by the following year, and was down to 2.4 percent by 1923. After the depression the United States proceeded to enjoy the “Roaring Twenties,” arguably the most prosperous decade in the country’s history. Some of this prosperity was illusory—itself the result of subsequent Fed inflation—but nonetheless the 1920–1921 depression “purged the rottenness out of the system” and provided a solid framework for sustainable growth.
As we know, things turned out decidedly differently in the 1930s. Despite the easy fiscal and monetary policies of the Hoover administration and the Federal Reserve—which today’s experts say are necessary to avoid the “mistakes of the Great Depression”—the unemployment rate kept going higher and higher, averaging an astounding 25 percent in 1933. And of course, after the “great contraction” the U.S. proceeded to stagnate in the Great Depression of the 1930s, which was easily the least prosperous decade in the country’s history.
The conclusion seems obvious to anyone whose mind is not firmly locked into the Keynesian or monetarist framework: The free market works. Even in the face of massive shocks requiring large structural adjustments, the best thing the government can do is cut its own budget and return more resources to the private sector. For its part, the Federal Reserve doesn’t help matters by flooding the shell-shocked credit markets with green pieces of paper. Prices can adjust to clear labor and other markets soon enough, in light of the new fundamentals, if only the politicians and central bankers would get out of the way. ..."
“We believe–or we act as if we believed–that although an individual father cannot alienate the labor of his son, the aggregate body of fathers may alienate the labor of all their sons, of their posterity, in the aggregate, and oblige them to pay for all the enterprises, just or unjust, profitable or ruinous, into which our vices, our passions or our personal interests may lead us. But I trust that this proposition needs only to be looked at by an American to be seen in its true point of view, and that we shall all consider ourselves unauthorized to saddle posterity with our debts, and morally bound to pay them ourselves; and consequently within what may be deemed the period of a generation, or the life of the majority.”
The Department of Labor oversees federal programs for ensuring a strong American workforce. These programs address job training, safe working conditions, minimum hourly wage and overtime pay, employment discrimination, and unemployment insurance.
The Department of Labor’s mission is to foster and promote the welfare of the job seekers, wage earners, and retirees of the United States by improving their working conditions, advancing their opportunities for profitable employment, protecting their retirement and health care benefits, helping employers find workers, strengthening free collective bargaining, and tracking changes in employment, prices, and other national economic measurements.
Offices within the Department of Labor include the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal government’s principal statistics agency for labor economics, and the Occupational Safety & Health Administration, which promotes the safety and health of America’s working men and women.
The Secretary of Labor oversees 15,000 employees on a budget of approximately $50 billion. …”
Department of Labor – $13.3billion+$4.8billion from the Recovery Act
The 2010 budget for the Department of Labor focuses on modernization and reform on the Unemployment Insurance system, building green jobs and the improvement on American working conditions.
Highlights from the 2010 Department of Labor Budget
Improve Unemployment Insurance System
Reduce improper payments and employer tax evasion by more than $4 billion over the next 10 years through modernization of system – no monetary value given
Increase labor standards
Increase funding for OSHA – no monetary value given
“…The United States Department of Labor is a Cabinet department of the United States government responsible for occupational safety, wage and hour standards, unemployment insurance benefits, re-employment services, and some economic statistics. Many U.S. states also have such departments. The department is headed by the United States Secretary of Labor. Hilda Solis is the current secretary of labor. Seth Harris is the current Deputy Secretary of Labor.
The Frances Perkins Building, the Department of Labor headquarters in Washington, D.C.
The Department of Labor (DOL) fosters and promotes the welfare of the job seekers, wage earners, and retirees of the United States by improving their working conditions, advancing their opportunities for profitable employment, protecting their retirement and health care benefits, helping employers find workers, strengthening free collective bargaining, and tracking changes in employment, prices, and other national economic measurements. In carrying out this mission, the Department administers a variety of Federal labor laws including those that guarantee workers’ rights to safe and healthful working conditions; a minimum hourly wage and overtime pay; freedom from employment discrimination; unemployment insurance; and other income support. The department is housed in the Frances Perkins Building, which gained its name in 1980 when President Jimmy Carter renamed the facility in honor of Frances Perkins, the Secretary of Labor from 1933–1945 and the first female cabinet secretary in U.S. history.[1]
The U.S. Congress first established a Bureau of Labor in 1888 under the Department of the Interior. Later, the Bureau of Labor became an independent Department of Labor but lacked executive rank. It became a bureau again within the Department of Commerce and Labor, which was established February 15, 1903. PresidentWilliam Howard Taft signed the March 4, 1913 bill establishing the Department of Labor as a Cabinet-level Department.
President Lyndon Johnson asked Congress to consider the idea of reuniting Commerce and Labor.[citation needed] He argued that the two departments had similar goals and that they would have more efficient channels of communication in a single department. However, Congress never acted on it.
In the 1970s, following the Civil Rights Movement, the Labor Department under Secretary George P. Shultz was instrumental in promoting racial diversity in unions.[2]
The official unemployment rate as measured by U-3 (see unemployment article below) for May, 2009 was higher than expected, hitting a twenty-five year high of 9.4% or over 14.5 million Americans seeking full time jobs.
The real unemployment rate as measured by U-6 (see unmployment article below) for May, 2009 hit 16.4% or over 25 million Americans seeking full time jobs.
On July 4, 2009 the Bush recession of 2008 turns into the Obama Depression of 2009.
By July 4, 2009 the official unemployment rate as measured by U-3 will be over 10% with over 15 million Americans seeking full time employment.
By July 4, 2009 the real unemployment rate as measured by U-6 will be over 17.5% or over 26 million Americans seeking full time jobs.
These unemployment rates will be the highest official and total unemployment rates in over seventy years!
What is not being hightlighted and talked about by big media is that in 1933 at the height of the Great Depression with an unemployment rate of 24.9% the number of unemployed Americans was 12,830,000.
More Americans are now unemployed, 14,511,000, than were in 1933!
source: Historical Statistics US (1976) series D-86
This will be followed in late 2010 and early 2011 with double digit inflation rates!
Monetary Policy By Federal Reserve Will Cause “Double Digit” Inflation
Peter Schiff – CNBC Jun 8, 2009
Jim Rogers: They’re Printing So Much Money That Stocks Will Go To 30,000
Jim Rogers – An Even Greater Depression is Coming – March 1st, 2009
Inside Look – How Long Will the Recession Last? – Bloomberg
Dr. Nouriel Roubini
President Obama’s economic approach of massive bailouts to failing businesses and stimulus bills that are largely payoffs to his campaign contributors (mainly unions and Wall Street banks) combined with the Federal Reserve’s wildly expansionary monetary policy to accommodate the bailouts and huge budgetary deficits are the problem not the solution.
Businesses and consumers have lost confidence in President Obama’s economic policies that are wrecking the American economy and destroying jobs.
Until small and medium size businesses that create most of the new jobs have confidence in President Obama’s and the Federal Reserve’s economic policies, the unemployment rate will continue to grow and the recession will last longer.
I fully expect the official unemployment rate will hit 13% by the end of the year and the real total unemployment rate will hit 21%.
The recession/depression will last at least 30 months or until the middle of 2010 provided both the proposed cap and trade energy tax and national health care bills are defeated.
The Obama Depression will be the longest recession/depression since the Great Depression of 1929-1933 of 43 months.
President Obama’s proposed hidden cap and trade energy tax and the proposed national health care bills if passed will destroy even more jobs and result in an even longer recession if not depression.
Both bills are job and investment killers and are fiscally irresponsible given the huge current and future liabilities of existing entitlement programs, namely Social Security and Medicare. These programs need to be put on a financial sound footing before even considering another new entitlement programs.
President Obama’s incompetent economic policies and radical socialist proposals are the problem not the solution.
Trying to pass the blame to President Bush and lying about the causes will increasingly not work as the American people wake-up to tens of millions unemployed Americans
The American people will demand that all illegal aliens working in the United States be removed from the workplace and deported and American citizens replace them.
The American people will demand that no new taxes be enacted and the FairTax be passed to replace all existing business and individual income, payroll, estate and gift taxes.
The American people will demand a six month tax holiday to restore their confidence in the economy and encourage consumer spending and business investment.
The American people will demand that all bailouts be banned and all budgets be balanced.
The American people will demand that both the Social Security and Medicare programs be saved before entertaining any new entitlement program such as national health care.
Look before you leap!
US Federal Government Deficits
Stop Spending Our Future – The Crisis
Joe Stiglitz …explains how we got robbed by tarp 2
Inside Look – How Not to Fix the Financial System – Bloomberg
Dr. Nouriel Roubini
Glenn Beck Interviews Stuart Varney,Conservatives Take Control Of Parliament
Out of control fear
On July 4, 2009 Independence Day over 30 million Americans will march and attend ice tea parties in over 1,000 cities and towns including Washington D.C. celebrating the Second American Revolution.
You are invited to attend a Tea Party on Saturday, July 4, 2009, Independence Day!
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May, about half the
average monthly decline for the prior 6 months, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The unem-
ployment rate continued to rise, increasing from 8.9 to 9.4 percent.
Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while declines moderated
in construction and several service-providing industries.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percent-age points. (See table A-1.)
Unemployment rates rose in May for adult men (9.8 percent), adult
women (7.5 percent), whites (8.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent). The jobless rates for teenagers (22.7 percent) and blacks (14.9 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 6.7 percent in May, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.8 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 732,000 in May to 9.5 million. This group has increased by 5.8 million since the start of the recession. (See table A-8.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 268,000 over the month to 3.9 million and has tripled since the start of the recession. (See table A-9.)
“…Unemployment occurs when a person is available to work and seeking work but currently without work.[1] The prevalence of unemployment is usually measured using the unemployment rate, which is defined as the percentage of those in the labor force who are unemployed. The unemployment rate is also used in economic studies and economic indexes such as the United States’ Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators as a measure of the state of the macroeconomics.
Most economic schools of thought agree that the cause of involuntary unemployment is that wages are above the market clearing rate. However, there are disagreements as to why this would be the case: the economists argue that in a downturn, wages stay high because they are naturally ‘sticky’, whilst others argue that minimum wages and union activity keep them high. Keynesian economics emphasizes unemployment resulting from insufficient effective demand for goods and services in the economy (cyclical unemployment). Others point to structural problems, inefficiencies, inherent in labour markets (structural unemployment). Classical or neoclassical economics tends to reject these explanations, and focuses more on rigidities imposed on the labor market from the outside, such as minimum wage laws, taxes, and other regulations that may discourage the hiring of workers (classical unemployment). Yet others see unemployment as largely due to voluntary choices by the unemployed (frictional unemployment). Alternatively, some blame unemployment on Globalisation. There is also disagreement on how exactly to measure unemployment. Different countries experience different levels of unemployment; traditionally, the USA experiences lower unemployment levels than countires in the European Union,[2] although there is variet there, with countries like the UK and Denmark outpreforming Italy and France and it also changes over time (e.g. the Great depression) throughout economic cycles …”
“…The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment and unemployment (of those over 15 years of age) using two different labor force surveys[32] conducted by the United States Census Bureau (within the United States Department of Commerce) and/or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (within the United States Department of Labor) that gather employment statistics monthly. The Current Population Survey (CPS), or “Household Survey”, conducts a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. This Survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.[33] The data is also used to calculate 5 alternate measures of unemployment as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions noted as U1 through U6:[34]
U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4: U3 + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other “marginally attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.
Note: “Marginally attached workers” are added to the total labor force for unemployment rate calculation for U4, U5, and U6. The BLS revised the CPS in 1994 and among the changes the measure representing the official unemployment rate was renamed U3 instead of U5.[35]
Published: April 19 2009 18:54 | Last updated: April 19 2009 18:54
“…The money supply consists largely of government-insured bank deposits that households and businesses are holding because of a concern about the liquidity and safety of other forms of investment. But this could change when conditions improve, turning these money balances into sources of inflation.
The link between fiscal deficits and money growth is about to be exacerbated by “quantitative easing”, in which the Fed will buy long-dated government bonds. While this may look like just a modified form of the Fed’s traditional open market operations, it cannot be distinguished from a policy of directly monetising some of the government’s newly created debt. Fortunately, the amount of debt being purchased in this way is still small relative to the total government borrowing.
The Fed is also creating a massive increase in liquidity by its policy of supplying credit directly to private borrowers. Although these credit transactions do not add to the measured fiscal deficit, the unprecedented Fed purchases of more than $1,000bn of private securities have led to the enormous $700bn increase in the excess reserves of the commercial banks. The banks now hold these as interest-bearing deposits at the Fed. But when the economy begins to recover, these reserves can be converted into new loans and faster money growth.
The deep recession means that there is no immediate risk of inflation. The aggregate demand for labour and goods and services is much less than the potential supply. But when the economy begins to recover, the Fed will have to reduce the excessive stock of money and, more critically, prevent the large volume of excess reserves in the banks from causing an inflationary explosion of money and credit. …”
“A worldwide depression struck countries with market economies at the end of the 1920s. Although the Great Depression was relatively mild in some countries, it was severe in others, particularly in the United States, where, at its nadir in 1933, 25 percent of all workers and 37 percent of all nonfarm workers were completely out of work. Some people starved; many others lost their farms and homes. Homeless vagabonds sneaked aboard the freight trains that crossed the nation. Dispossessed cotton farmers, the “Okies,” stuffed their possessions into dilapidated Model Ts and migrated to California in the false hope that the posters about plentiful jobs were true. Although the U.S. economy began to recover in the second quarter of 1933, the recovery largely stalled for most of 1934 and 1935. A more vigorous recovery commenced in late 1935 and continued into 1937, when a new depression occurred. The American economy had yet to fully recover from the Great Depression when the United States was drawn into World War II in December 1941. Because of this agonizingly slow recovery, the entire decade of the 1930s in the United States is often referred to as the Great Depression. …”
“…This is a list of recessions that have affected the United States. Though a recession is popularly defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth, the beginning and ending dates of U.S. recessions are officially determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).[2] The NBER defines a recession as, “…a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”[3] From 1945-2007 the NBER has identified 11 recessions;[4] their average duration was 10 months (peak to trough).[5]
Most of the recessions listed here have affected economies on a worldwide scale; some of them are the Great Depression, the late 1980s recession, and the early 2000s recession. Recessions in one country are often grouped together with recessions in other countries that are related, and they commonly share a focal point as the cause of the recession.[6]
Note that before detailed economic statistics began to be gathered in the nineteenth century, it was difficult to tell when recessions occurred.[7] In spite of this, it is possible to estimate when economic recessions began because they were typically caused by external actions on the economic system such as wars and variations in the weather.[8]
Failure of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company burst a European speculative bubble in United States railroads and caused a loss of confidence in American banks. Over 5,000 businesses failed within the first year of the Panic, and unemployment was accompanied by protest meetings in urban areas.
Economic problems in Europe prompted the failure of the Jay Cooke & Company, the largest bank in the United States, which burst the post-Civil Warspeculative bubble. The Coinage Act of 1873 also contributed by immediately depressing the price of silver, which hurt North American mining interests.
The collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange caused a depression that spread throughout the world. It is important to note that during this period, the global industrial production greatly increased. In the United States, for example, industrial output increased fourfold.
Failure of the United States Reading Railroad and withdrawal of European investment led to a stock market and banking collapse. This Panic was also precipitated in part by a run on the gold supply.
Severe hyperinflation in Europe took place over production in North America. It was a brief but very sharp recession and was caused by the end of wartime production, along with an influx of labor from returning troops. This in turn caused high unemployment.
Stock markets crashed worldwide, and a banking collapse took place in the United States. Although sometimes dated as lasting until the Second World War, the US economy was growing again by 1933, and technically the U.S. was not in recession from 1933 to 1937
The decline in government spending at the end of World War II led to an enormous drop in Gross Domestic Product making this technically a recession. The Post War years were unusual in a number of ways and this era has little in common with other recessions.
The 1948 recession was a relatively brief cyclical economic downturn, the mildness of which led to confidence in the notion that the Post War-era would be a period of stronger growth.
After a post-Korean War inflationary period, more funds were transferred into national security. The Federal Reserve changed monetary policy to be more restrictive in 1952 due to fears of further inflation.
Monetary policy was tightened during the two years preceding 1957, followed by an easing of policy at the end of 1957. The budget balance resulted in a change in budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 1957 to a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 1958, and then to 2.6% of GDP in 1959.
After President Kennedy’s 30 January 1961 call for increased government spending to improve the Gross National Product and to reduce unemployment, the 1960-61 recession ended in February.[28]
Recession of 1969-70
Dec 1969–Nov 1970
&0000000000000011.00000011 months
&0000000000000106.000000106 months
The relatively mild 1969 recession is thought to have been mostly caused by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to hold down inflation.
The NBER considers a short recession to have occurred in 1980, followed by a short period of growth and then a deep recession. Unemployment remained relatively elevated inbetween recessions. The early ’80s are sometimes referred to as a “double dip” or “w-shaped” recession.
The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices to go up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation led to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation that was carried over from the previous decade due to the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis.
The collapse of the housing market led to bank collapses in the US and Europe, causing the amount of available credit to be sharply curtailed, resulting in huge liquidity and solvency crises. In addition, record oil prices and food prices, stock markets crashed globally, and several high profile banking and manufacturing giants collapsed in the United States
“…Liberty Belle blogger Keli Carender, who organized the first porkulus protest in Seattle back in February that presaged the Tea Party movement, is mobilizing grass-roots activists against the Obama health care takeover.
The Funeral for Health Care will be held on May 30.
