Unemployment Rate Hits 9.8 Percent

15.1 million Americans now out of work!

Economic Expectations – Unemployment Rate May Reach 15% – Bloomberg

Gerson Says Wall Street Executives Confident on Hiring

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyN4iif8CoE

1929 Great Depression, 1979 Economic Stagflation or 1989 Soviet-Style Collapse?

Ready For America’s Economic Crash ?

George Soros Predicts Stagflation

The Bush Recession ended and the Obama Depression continues due to progressive radical socialist Democratic Party failed economic policies of  massive bailouts, deficits, and stimulus spending.

With more than 26 million Americans seeking full time jobs, do not be fooled by statements that the recession is over.

During the very worse year of the Great Depression 13 million Americans were seeking full time jobs.

Today, more then twice that number or over 26 million Americans are seeking work.

In May of 2009 the US Labor force peaked at 155,051,000.

In September of 2009  the US labor force was 154,006,000.

Since May of this year over 1,000,000 Americans have left the labor force!

They are not employed nor unemployed, but usually are so discouraged that they have given up looking for work.

The Obama Depression continues and is not expected to get better for at least another six to twelve months.

The official unemployment rate is expected to exceed 10% in October and to continue to increase through May 2010.

The Obama economic policies and proposed health care and cap and trade energy taxes bills are destroying  jobs, wrecking the economy and killing the American Dream.

Obama must change course and make the Bush tax cuts permanent if he has any hope in creating new jobs.

He must also forget about a new mandatory health care tax and cap and trade energy tax–not likely.

Should either or both bills make it into law, expect the recession/depression to last through 2011.

Small business views these bills as massive tax increases that they cannot afford to pay and will reduce hiring, meaning fewer  jobs and a longer recession/depression.

President Obama and the progressive radical socialist Democratic Party are facing defeat at the election polls in 2010 and 2012 for not delivering  jobs!

The US dollar will continue to decline in value and inflation should rapidly increase in late 2011– the result– the return of a stagflation economy.

Stagflation

Background Articles and Videos

 Stagflation

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Series Id:           LNS12000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Series Id:           LNS11000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Series Id:           LNS13000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Level
Labor force status:  Unemployed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over

Series Id:           LNS13327709
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status:  Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over
Percent/rates:       Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

 http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

“…

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — SEPTEMBER 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in September (-263,000), and
the unemployment rate (9.8 percent) continued to trend up, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses were in construction,
manufacturing, retail trade, and government.

Household Survey Data

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed
persons has increased by 7.6 million to 15.1 million, and the unemployment
rate has doubled to 9.8 percent. (See table A-1.)

Unemployment rates for the major worker groups–adult men (10.3 percent),
adult women (7.8 percent), teenagers (25.9 percent), whites (9.0 percent),
blacks (15.4 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent)–showed little change
in September. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.4 percent, not season-
ally adjusted. The rates for all major worker groups are much higher than
at the start of the recession. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs rose by 603,000 to 10.4 million in September. The number of
long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 450,000
to 5.4 million. In September, 35.6 percent of unemployed persons were job-
less for 27 weeks or more. (See tables A-8 and A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage point
in September to 65.2 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.8 per-
cent, also declined over the month and has decreased by 3.9 percentage points
since the recession began in December 2007. (See table A-1.)

In September, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons
(sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed
at 9.2 million. The number of such workers rose sharply throughout most of
the fall and winter but has been little changed since March. (See table A-5.)

About 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in
September, an increase of 615,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12
months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 706,000 discouraged workers in
September, up by 239,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work
because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.5 million
persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had not searched
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school
attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 263,000 in September. From May
through September, job losses averaged 307,000 per month, compared with los-
ses averaging 645,000 per month from November 2008 to April. Since the start
of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.2 mil-
lion. (See table B-1.)

In September, construction employment declined by 64,000. Monthly job los-
ses averaged 66,000 from May through September, compared with an average of
117,000 per month from November to April. September job cuts were concen-
trated in the industry’s nonresidential components (-39,000) and in heavy
construction (-12,000). Since December 2007, employment in construction has
fallen by 1.5 million.

Employment in manufacturing fell by 51,000 in September. Over the past 3
months, job losses have averaged 53,000 per month, compared with an average
monthly loss of 161,000 from October to June. Employment in manufacturing
has contracted by 2.1 million since the onset of the recession.

In the service-providing sector, the number of jobs in retail trade fell by
39,000 in September. From April through September, retail employment has
fallen by an average of 29,000 per month, compared with an average monthly
loss of 68,000 for the prior 6-month period.

Government employment was down by 53,000 in September, with the largest
decline occurring in the non-education component of local government
(-24,000).

Employment in health care continued to increase in September (19,000), with
the largest gain occurring in ambulatory health care services (15,000).
Health care has added 559,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession,
although the average monthly job gain thus far in 2009 (22,000) is down from
the average monthly gain during 2008 (30,000).

Employment in transportation and warehousing continued to trend down in
September. The number of jobs in financial activities, professional and
business services, leisure and hospitality, and information showed little
or no change over the month.

In September, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours. Both the
manufacturing workweek and factory overtime decreased by 0.1 hour over the
month, to 39.8 and 2.8 hours, respectively. (See table B-2.)

In September, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to
$18.67. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5
percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by only 0.7 percent due
to declines in the average workweek. (See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from
-276,000 to -304,000, and the change for August was revised from -216,000
to -201,000. …”

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

“Why does the Government collect statistics on the unemployed?

When workers are unemployed, they, their families, and the country as a whole lose. Workers and their families lose wages, and the country loses the goods or services that could have been produced. In addition, the purchasing power of these workers is lost, which can lead to unemployment for yet other workers.

To know about unemployment—the extent and nature of the problem—requires information. How many people are unemployed? How did they become unemployed? How long have they been unemployed? Are their numbers growing or declining? Are they men or women? Are they young or old? Are they white or black or of Hispanic ethnicity? Are they skilled or unskilled? Are they the sole support of their families, or do other family members have jobs? Are they more concentrated in one area of the country than another? After these statistics are obtained, they have to be interpreted properly so they can be used—together with other economic data—by policymakers in making decisions as to whether measures should be taken to influence the future course of the economy or to aid those affected by joblessness.

Where do the statistics come from?

Early each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor announces the total number of employed and unemployed persons in the United States for the previous month, along with many characteristics of such persons. These figures, particularly the unemployment rate—which tells you the percent of the labor force that is unemployed—receive wide coverage in the media.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

Other people think that the Government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long. Besides, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker come to their homes every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. For instance, beginning in 1994, the CPS estimates reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey. (For more information on the CPS redesign, see Chapter 1, “Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey,” in the BLS Handbook of Methods.)

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State. (For a detailed explanation of CPS sampling methodology, see Chapter 1, of the BLS Handbook of Methods.)

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.

Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household. This information, relating to all household members 15 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day’s interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau’s central computer in Washington, D.C. (The labor force measures in the CPS pertain to individuals 16 years and over.) In addition, a portion of the sample is interviewed by phone through three central data collection facilities. (Prior to 1994, the interviews were conducted using a paper questionnaire that had to be mailed in by the interviewers each month.)

Each person is classified according to the activities he or she engaged in during the reference week. Then, the total numbers are “weighted,” or adjusted to independent population estimates (based on updated decennial census results). The weighting takes into account the age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, and State of residence of the person, so that these characteristics are reflected in the proper proportions in the final estimates.

A sample is not a total count, and the survey may not produce the same results that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population. But the chances are 90 out of 100 that the monthly estimate of unemployment from the sample is within about 290,000 of the figure obtainable from a total census. Since monthly unemployment totals have ranged between about 7 and 11 million in recent years, the possible error resulting from sampling is not large enough to distort the total unemployment picture.

Because these interviews are the basic source of data for total unemployment, information must be factual and correct. Respondents are never asked specifically if they are unemployed, nor are they given an opportunity to decide their own labor force status. Unless they already know how the Government defines unemployment, many of them may not be sure of their actual classification when the interview is completed.

Similarly, interviewers do not decide the respondents’ labor force classification. They simply ask the questions in the prescribed way and record the answers. Based on information collected in the survey and definitions programmed into the computer, individuals are then classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.

All interviews must follow the same procedures to obtain comparable results. Because of the crucial role interviewers have in the household survey, a great amount of time and effort is spent maintaining the quality of their work. Interviewers are given intensive training, including classroom lectures, discussion, practice, observation, home-study materials, and on-the-job training. At least once a year, they attend day-long training and review sessions. Also, at least once a year, they are accompanied by a supervisor during a full day of interviewing to determine how well they carry out their assignments.

A selected number of households are reinterviewed each month to determine whether the information obtained in the first interview was correct. The information gained from these reinterviews is used to improve the entire training program.

What are the basic concepts of employment and unemployment?

The basic concepts involved in identifying the employed and unemployed are quite simple:

• People with jobs are employed.
• People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
• People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force. …”

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

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