Business, Investor and Consumer Confidence in Economy and Obama Plummeting–Fire It Up–You Lost That Loving Feeling

Posted on April 1, 2009. Filed under: Blogroll, Economics, Employment, Links, Politics, Quotations, Rants, Raves, Taxes, Video | Tags: Business Confidence, Consumer confidence, depression, economic policy, FDR, Investor Confidence, Keynesian economics, Obama, President Obama, Recession, Repeating FDR's Failed Policies |

Levin on Obama’s Falling Approval Ratings

Obama’s final rally

Fire it up-Black Label Society

The Righteous Brothers sing You’ve Lost that Loving Feeling

Barack Obama, the first radical socialist ideologue to be elected President of the United States, sees his popularity falling like a rock in tandem with the recession in the US economy.

President Obama drives the US economy down the road to socialism with with huge budget deficits and massive tax increases including a new cap and trade carbon emissions tax.

The Truth President Obama: You Are Spending And Taxing The United States Into Radical Socialism And Bankruptcy!

Cap and Trade Carbon Dioxide Tax: Gore’s and Obama’s Revenge on The American People–Let Them Freeze and Sweat!

More and more Americans are now understanding that the hope and change candidate was conning them.

Obama really planned to signficantly increase the size and scope of the Federal Government with deficit government spending,

President Obama policies resemble the failed economic policies of the FDR’s New Deal, now labelled Keynesian economics.

Obama repeating FDR’s bad decisions

Amity Schlaes – The New Deal

Peter Schiff explains why Obama will fail

These policies resulted in a prolonged Great Depression lasting until the start of World World II.

One can only hope that today’s recession does not approach the levels of unemployment in the 1930s:

Most indexes worsened until the summer of 1932, which may be called the low point of the depression economically and psychologically.”^[89] Economic indicators show the American economy reached nadir in summer 1932 to February 1933, then began recovering until the recession of 1937-1938. Thus the Federal Reserve Industrial Production Index hit its low of 52.8 on 1932-07-01 and was practically unchanged at 54.3 on 1933-03-01; however by 1933-07-01, it reached 85.5 (with 1935-39 = 100, and for comparison 2005 = 1,342).^[90] In Roosevelt’s twelve years in office the economy had an 8.5% compound annual growth of GDP,^[91] the highest growth rate in the history of any industrial country,^[92] however, recovery was slow—by 1939 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per adult was still 27% below trend.^[59]

Table 1: Statistics^[93]
	1929	1931	1933	1937	1938	1940
Real Gross National Product (GNP) (1)	101.4	84.3	68.3	103.9	96.7	113.0
Consumer Price Index (2)	122.5	108.7	92.4	102.7	99.4	100.2
Index of Industrial Production (2)	109	75	69	112	89	126
Money Supply M2 ($ billions)	46.6	42.7	32.2	45.7	49.3	55.2
Exports ($ billions)	5.24	2.42	1.67	3.35	3.18	4.02
Unemployment (% of civilian work force)	3.1	16.1	25.2	13.8	16.5	13.9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal

Business, investor and consumer confidence really did not return to the US until after the death of President Franklin Roosevelt in April of 1945.

The American people are far less patient today.

If President Obama does not turn the economy around by July 2009, his chances of getting reelected President will diminish with every month unemployment is above 8%.

High unemployment rates will result in demands for deporting all illegal aliens currently working in the United States., estimated to exceed 10 million jobs.

If American citizens held the jobs that illegal alien now hold, the unemployment rate could be cut nearly in half.

70. How To Interpret the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

71.How to Interpret the Index of Leading Economic Indicators

-Depth Look – Consumer Confidence Sentiment – Bloomberg

Consumer Confidence Plummets to New Low

CNBC-TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index

Background Articles and Videos

Peter Schiff 1/15/09 – CNBC Kudlow & Company [Part 1]

Peter Schiff 1/15/09 – CNBC Kudlow & Company [Part 2]

OECD to Contract 4.3%, Says Rates Should Fall Further

“…The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast the steepest contraction in more than 50 years across its member nations and said central banks should use additional monetary tools to spur a recovery.

The combined economy of the world’s most-industrialized countries, will shrink 4.3 percent this year and 0.1 percent next, the Paris-based group said today in its latest projections. That compares with the 0.3 percent contraction forecast in November. All 30 OECD economies will be in a recession by the end of this year, something the group said was “unprecedented.”

“We are in the midst of the steepest, most synchronized recession in our life time, certainly since the 1930s,” OECD Chief Economist Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel said at a press conference in Paris to present the report.

Separately, World Bank President Robert Zoellick today said the global economy will likely shrink 1.7 percent, reversing growth of 1.9 percent in 2008. The OECD is also more negative than the International Monetary Fund, which forecasts advanced economies will contract between 3 percent and 3.5 percent this year. A recovery may take hold next year, the OECD said. …”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOsU2DN14VWY&refer=home

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.4 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in February.

“…The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined in February, following a slight increase in January. The monthly increase for December was revised to a small decline, while January’s monthly increase was revised lower, due mainly to data revisions in manufacturers’ new orders and real money supply. Between August 2008 and February 2009, the index fell 2.1 percent (a -4.1 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 1.6 percent (a -3.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. fell again in February, driven by continued declines in employment and industrial production. Between August 2008 and February 2009, this index of current economic activity dropped 3.1 percent (a -6.1 percent annual rate), a much larger fall than the decrease of 0.9 percent (a -1.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, and the weaknesses among its components have remained widespread in recent months. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. declined by the same amount as the coincident economic index this month, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio was unchanged. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 6.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008 (following a decline of 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter), the largest quarterly contraction since 1982.
Amid widespread deterioration among its components, The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. continued the general downward trend that began in July 2007. But, its rate of decline has moderated slightly in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. remains on a downtrend that began in November 2007, with the decline in the index having accelerated in recent months. The six-month decline in the CEI is the largest since 1975. Taken together, the behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the economic recession that began in December 2007 will continue in the near term. …”

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1

Consumer confidence plummets
Index of consumer sentiment falls to an all-time low in February and signals more deterioration ahead.

By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer

“…A key measure of consumer sentiment fell more than expected in February, to the lowest level since its 1967 inception, as Americans remained wary of spending amid the weak economy and rising unemployment.

The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 25 in February from a revised reading of 37.4 in January. The index has been touching historic lows since September.

Economists were expecting a reading of 35, according to a survey by Briefing.com.

The index’s measure of future expectations about consumer sentiment declined to 27.5 in February from a reading of 42.5 the month before.

“All in all, not only do consumers feel overall economic conditions have grown more dire, but just as disconcerting, they anticipate no improvement in conditions over the next six months,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, in a written statement.

The index, which is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, revealed a bleak outlook for the months ahead. …”

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/24/news/economy/consumer_confidence/

Obama’s Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth
By DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN and SCOTT RASMUSSEN

“…It is simply wrong for commentators to continue to focus on President Barack Obama’s high levels of popularity, and to conclude that these are indicative of high levels of public confidence in the work of his administration. Indeed, a detailed look at recent survey data shows that the opposite is most likely true. The American people are coming to express increasingly significant doubts about his initiatives, and most likely support a different agenda and different policies from those that the Obama administration has advanced. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama’s net presidential approval rating — which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve — is just six, his lowest rating to date.

Polling data show that Mr. Obama’s approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001.

M.E. CohenOverall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president’s performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.

A detailed examination of presidential popularity after 50 days on the job similarly demonstrates a substantial drop in presidential approval relative to other elected presidents in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reason for this decline most likely has to do with doubts about the administration’s policies and their impact on peoples’ lives.

There is also a clear sense in the polling that taxes will increase for all Americans because of the stimulus, notwithstanding what the president has said about taxes going down for 95% of Americans. Close to three-quarters expect that government spending will grow under this administration.

Recent Gallup data echo these concerns. That polling shows that there are deep-seeded, underlying economic concerns. Eighty-three percent say they are worried that the steps Mr. Obama is taking to fix the economy may not work and the economy will get worse. Eighty-two percent say they are worried about the amount of money being added to the deficit. Seventy-eight percent are worried about inflation growing, and 69% say they are worried about the increasing role of the government in the U.S. economy. …”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123690358175013837.html

http://www3.fertilethoughts.com/forums/showthread.php?t=642763

Obama’s Approval Rating Slips Amid Division Over Economic Proposals

GOP Congressional Leaders’ Ratings Hit New Low – 28%

“…President Barack Obama’s approval rating has slipped, as a growing number of Americans see him listening more to his party’s liberals than to its moderates and many voice opposition to some of his key economic proposals. Obama’s job approval rating has slipped from 64% in February to 59% currently, while disapproval has jumped from 17% to 26% over this period.

Although most people think the new president is doing as much as he can to fix the economy and relatively few say Obama’s policies have made the economy worse, the public expresses mixed views of his many major proposals to fix the economy. There continues to be broad support for increased spending on infrastructure, and most have positive views of key aspects of his budget plan – reducing taxes on middle and lower-income households and raising taxes on the affluent. …”

“…Nonetheless, a sizable minority (39%) says that Obama has proposed spending too much money to address the economic situation; 34% say Obama is spending the right amount, while 13% say Obama has proposed spending too little to address the crisis. Seven-in-ten Republicans (70%) say Obama’s proposals are too costly, compared with 40% of independents and just 17% of Democrats.

In this regard, 37% of Americans say that the growing budget deficit makes them angry, while another 46% say it is something that bothers them but does not make them angry. Comparable percentages say they are angered by bailing out homeowners who took out mortgages they could not afford (39%) and government money being spent on special interest projects (34%). The bailout of banks and financial institutions that made poor decisions engenders more negative reactions – 48% say this is something that makes them angry. …”

http://people-press.org/report/498/obama-approval-slips

The New Deal

“…The New Deal was the name that United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt gave to a sequence of central economic planning and economic stimulus programs he initiated between 1933 and 1938 with the goal of giving aid to the unemployed, reform of business and financial practices, and recovery of the economy during The Great Depression. The enactment of New Deal policies lasted from 1933 through 1939.^[1]^[2]

When Franklin D. Roosevelt took office, the nation was deeply troubled. No one could receive a bank loan. The unemployment rate was 25% and higher in major industrial and mining centers. The agricultural sector was possibly in worse shape than the industrial sector. Farmers were having difficulties selling their products and a part of the country known as the dust bowl was experiencing a long lasting drought. Mortgages were being foreclosed by tens of thousands. ^[3] Unemployment was still high in 1939, with the tide only turning in 1941.^[4]

The “First New Deal” of 1933 was aimed at short-term relief programs for all groups. The Roosevelt administration promoted or implemented banking reform laws, work relief programs, agricultural programs, and industrial reform (the National Recovery Administration, NRA), and the end of the gold standard and Prohibition.

A “Second New Deal” (1935–1938) included labor union support, the Works Progress Administration (WPA) relief program, the Social Security Act, and programs to aid the agricultural sector, including tenant farmers and migrant workers. The Supreme Court ruled several programs unconstitutional; however, most were soon replaced, with the exception of the NRA. The Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 was the last major program launched, which set maximum hours and minimum wages for most categories of workers.^[5]

Most of the relief programs were shut down during World War II by the Conservative Coalition (i.e., the opponents of the New Deal in Congress). Many regulations were ended during the wave of deregulation in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Several New Deal programs remain active, with some still operating under the original names, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC), the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The largest programs still in existence today are the Social Security System, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and Fannie Mae. …”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal

The soul-fixer-in-chief is here to dry your tears

By Michelle Malkin

“…Reuters is running a story on the Obama administration’s new federally subsidized counseling services/referrals for those suffering from depression related to the economy. As usual, the government’s prescription for pain is…more government. The economic psychology guide was developed with help from the Departments of Labor, HUD, Treasury, and GSA.

From the SAMHSA.gov website: …”

http://michellemalkin.com/2009/03/31/the-soul-fixer-in-chief-is-here-to-dry-your-tears/