Conservative Turnout Will Determine the Outcome of The Presidential 2008 Race Between McCain vs. Obama

Posted on February 14, 2008. Filed under: Blogroll, Books, Economics, Links, Politics, Rants, Raves, Reviews, Taxes, Video, War | Tags: , , , , , , , , |

The smart money is betting that Senators John McCain and Barack Obama will the candidates of the Republican and Democratic Parties respectively.

Turnout for both parties will determine who will be elected President of the United States.

Only 27% of the US Electorate Voting in Primaries  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKM7bKWC5aI

 The Record Breaking 2008 Youth Voter Turnout

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bA8UCYBLElY

Today, Obama would win if you believe the polls.

General Election: McCain vs. Obama

 

 

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 01/29 – 02/10 - 43.7 47.7 7.1 Obama +4.0
USA Today/Gallup 02/08 – 02/10 706 LV 46 50 4 Obama +4.0
AP-Ipsos 02/07 – 02/10 1,029 A 42 48 8 Obama +6.0
Time 02/01 – 02/04 958 LV 41 48 6 Obama +7.0
CNN 02/01 – 02/03 974 RV 44 52 4 Obama +8.0
Cook/RT Strategies 01/31 – 02/02 855 RV 43 45 9 Obama +2.0
ABC/Wash Post 01/30 – 02/01 1249 A 46 49 3 Obama +3.0
FOX News 01/30 – 01/31 900 RV 43 44 13 Obama +1.0
NPR 01/29 – 01/31 1000 LV 48 47 3 McCain +1.0
Rasmussen (Wed) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 40 46 14 Obama +6.0
See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

 I do not.

Read this book about polls: 

Mobocracy: How the Media’s Obsession with Polling Twists the News, Alters Elections and Undermines Democracy

by Matthew Robinson

“Mobocracy provides a multitude of recent examples of liberal journalists’ and Democratic politicians’ manipulation of public opinion through polling (including a shrewd, no-holds-barred account of the Clinton impeachment coverage). The primary objective of their manipulation, Robinson argues, is to validate a big-government political agenda and to discredit the Republicans. Most pollsters presume (or pretend there exists) a rational, informed public, but their “dirty little secret” is that vast numbers of Americans know little or nothing about the issues on which they are polled. Hence, polls not only conceal widespread public ignorance but actually feed it with flattery. Such citizens are easy prey for demagoguery. …” 

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3827/is_200201/ai_n9020996

Had the Republican Party establishment backed one of many possible conservative candidates, turnout from conservatives would have won the election in a landslide for the Republican Party.

Running a true conservative instead of a moderate would have resulted in a repeat of 1980 abd 1984 presidential election results:

United States presidential election, 1980

ElectoralCollege1980-Large.png

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1980

United States presidential election, 1984

ElectoralCollege1984-Large.png

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1984

Under no circumstances would a conservative vote for either Senator Hillary Clinton or Senator Obama, who are rightly perceived by conservatives as unqualified far leftists.

The Republican Party establishment selected Senator McCain, who is the one Republican candidate not acceptable to many grassroot movement conservatives.

Rush: A Moderate GOP Nominee will lose in Landslide

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLVGfSZ3B20  

Unless Senator McCain builds bridges to conservatives, enough conservatives will stay home or even vote Libertarian to give Senator Obama  a win.

The Republican Party wrongly assumed that Senator Clinton would win the Democratic nomination.

Senator Hillary Clinton is not liked nor trusted by most Republicans and many Democrats.

Senator Barack Obama is liked and trusted by most Democrats and many moderate to liberal Republicans.

The only way Senator McCain can win is with record turnout from the conservatives.

Pressure on McCain to Reconcile With Conservatives 

“…He’s not getting the conservative base in this party voting for him,” Mr. Limbaugh said. “He’s going to need that if he has any chance of winning. They may want to wipe the conservative element out of the party, but they want it back every four years for the election.”

“There is a greater desire on the part of members of our party,” Mr. Limbaugh added, “to destroy certain elements of our party, than there is a unified party desire to defeat Democrats.”

The editors of National Review wrote on the magazine’s Web site on Wednesday that “aside from his opposition to pork-barrel spending, there is no domestic conservative cause that McCain has taken up.” They added: “McCain can win over most conservatives, but their support is not his by right.” …” 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/us/politics/07conservative.html

The conventional wisdom has always been you run towards your political base in the primaries and towards the center in the general election.

Senator McCain takes pride that he is a maverick. He has been running to the center and towards the left for the last eight years to appeal to independents and moderates.

Now Senator McCain must run to the right or towards conservatives if he has any chance of winning the election.

Conservative Sense & Sensibility
The Right’s choices right now.By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn

“…many in the Republican party and the conservative movement are saying some strange things about the prospect of our very likely nominee, Senator John McCain, and his ascent to the GOP nomination. Many think he will destroy the conservative movement if not the Republican party, and many have even said they simply will not vote for him in a general election if he heads the GOP ticket. Moreover, others have even said they would consider voting for Senator Hillary Clinton or that there is simply no difference between Senators Clinton and Barack Obama on the one hand, and Senator John McCain on the other. Some who have said the foregoing are our dear and close friends, allies, and callers.

This sense and sensibility is simply wrong. …” 

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YmI2YjE1Y2QxODI1ZGI1ZGNhNmQwOThlNWVlMmNlMTc=

 Senator McCain will not destroy the conservative movement.

However, both President Bush and Senator McCain, may very well have already damaged the Republican Party beyond repair.

Peggy Noonan with Laura Ingraham

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPYFiw1kxjc

Only the Republican Party establishment could turn a landslide victory into defeat by ignoring the American people and the grassroot movement conservatives.

While I will never vote for either Senator Clinton or Obama, I will only vote for Senator McCain if he actually does move to the right and reaches out to conservatives.

Otherwise I will vote Libertarian.

Background Articles and Videos

Michael Reagan, the eldest son of Ronald Reagan, is heard daily by over 5 million listeners via his nationally syndicated talk radio program, “The Michael Reagan Show.”

“…As I watched McCain and Governor Romney go at it during the debate at the Reagan Library I was struck by the huge gap that separates McCain — whose contempt for his fellow humans is patently obvious — and my dad, Ronald Reagan, who had nothing but the deepest affection and respect for the American people.

The feeling is mutual between McCain and me. I don’t like the way he treats people. You get the impression that he thinks everybody is beneath him. He seems to be saying, “I was a war hero, and you had damn well better treat me as your superior.”He has contempt for conservatives who he thinks can be duped into thinking he’s one of them, despite such blatantly anti-conservative actions as his support for amnesty for illegal immigrants, his opposition to the Bush tax cuts which got the economy rolling again, and his campaign finance bill which skewed the political process and attacked free speech.I am appalled by his contempt for the intelligence of his listeners when he flat-out lies and expects them to believe what he says even when the truth is staring them in the face…” 

http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/MichaelReagan/2008/01/31/john_mccain_hates_me

The Real McCain Record
Obstacles in the way of conservative support.

By Mark R. Levin
“…The McCain domestic record is a disaster. To say he fought spending, most particularly earmarks, is to nibble around the edges and miss the heart of the matter. For starters, consider:

McCain-Feingold — the most brazen frontal assault on political speech since Buckley v. Valeo.

McCain-Kennedy — the most far-reaching amnesty program in American history.

McCain-Lieberman — the most onerous and intrusive attack on American industry — through reporting, regulating, and taxing authority of greenhouse gases — in American history.

McCain-Kennedy-Edwards — the biggest boon to the trial bar since the tobacco settlement, under the rubric of a patients’ bill of rights.

McCain-Reimportantion of Drugs — a significant blow to pharmaceutical research and development, not to mention consumer safety (hey Rudy, pay attention, see link).

And McCain’s stated opposition to the Bush 2001 and 2003 tax cuts was largely based on socialist, class-warfare rhetoric — tax cuts for the rich, not for the middle class. The public record is full of these statements. Today, he recalls only his insistence on accompanying spending cuts.

As chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, McCain was consistently hostile to American enterprise, from media and pharmaceutical companies to technology and energy companies.

McCain also led the Gang of 14, which prevented the Republican leadership in the Senate from mounting a rule change that would have ended the systematic use (actual and threatened) of the filibuster to prevent majority approval of judicial nominees. …”

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjUzOGY0ODA1YzBmNjFhOWE5NWU0OTY5NTZiOGNhOGQ= 

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